© OECD/IEA 2013 London, 10 June 2013
IEA’s Four Climate-Wise Energy Steps for 2020
May 09, 2015
The International Energy Agency has issued a report charting four climate-wise steps countries can take to make a difference in greenhouse-gas emissions by 2020:
- Targeted energy efficiency measures in buildings, industry and transport account for nearly half the emissions reduction in 2020, with the additional investment required being more than offset by reduced spending on fuel bills.
- Limiting the construction and use of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants delivers more than 20% of the emissions reduction and helps curb local air pollution. The share of power generation from renewables increases (from around 20% today to 27% in 2020), as does that from natural gas.
- Actions to halve expected methane (a potent greenhouse gas) releases into the atmosphere from the upstream oil and gas industry in 2020 provide 18% of the savings.
- Implementing a partial phase-out of fossil fuel consumption subsidies accounts for 12% of the reduction in emissions and supports efficiency efforts.
The rest: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/name,38773,en.html
More on Dot Earth: http://j.mp/dotIEA
- Targeted energy efficiency measures in buildings, industry and transport account for nearly half the emissions reduction in 2020, with the additional investment required being more than offset by reduced spending on fuel bills.
- Limiting the construction and use of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants delivers more than 20% of the emissions reduction and helps curb local air pollution. The share of power generation from renewables increases (from around 20% today to 27% in 2020), as does that from natural gas.
- Actions to halve expected methane (a potent greenhouse gas) releases into the atmosphere from the upstream oil and gas industry in 2020 provide 18% of the savings.
- Implementing a partial phase-out of fossil fuel consumption subsidies accounts for 12% of the reduction in emissions and supports efficiency efforts.
The rest: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2013/june/name,38773,en.html
More on Dot Earth: http://j.mp/dotIEA
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© OECD/IEA 2013
London, 10 June 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013
Context
Climate change is slipping down the policy agenda, even as the scientific evidence continues to accumulate
Energy sector accounts for two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions
Mixed news on energy trends
Price dynamics between gas and coal support emissions reductions in some regions, but impede them in others
Renewables are on the rise, but investment slowed in 2012
Efficiency policies are gaining momentum in many countries
Nuclear is facing challenges and CCS still remains distant
© OECD/IEA 2013
CO2 emissions at record high in 2012
Change in energy-related CO2 emissions, 2012
CO2 emissions grew by 1.4% to reach 31.6 Gt in 2012, but trends vary by country
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
World China Japan European Union
United States
Mt CO2
Middle East
India
© OECD/IEA 2013
700
750
800
850
900
2003 2006 2009 2012
gCO
2 /
kW
h
China
400
450
500
550
600
2003 2006 2009 2012
gCO
2 /
kW
h
United States
The two largest emitters make encouraging steps toward decarbonisation…
CO2 emissions per unit of electricity generation
In 2012, total CO2 emissions in the US were back at the level of the mid-1990s, while total CO2 emissions growth in China was one of the lowest in the last decade
© OECD/IEA 2013
…but the world is still moving in the wrong direction
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions trends point to a long-term temperature increase of up to 5.3 °C
1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2012
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32 Gt
Dissolution of the Soviet Union
End of World War II
1st oil price shock
Global economic downturn
2nd oil price shock
Great depression
© OECD/IEA 2013
Four measures to keep the 2 °C target alive
National efforts in this decade need to buy time for an international agreement, expected to come into force in 2020
Measures to 2020 should meet key criteria:
Significant near-term emissions reductions
No harm to countries’ economic growth
Reliance only on existing technologies and proven policies
Significant national benefits other than climate change mitigation
Our 4-for-2 °C Scenario proposes four measures that meet these criteria
© OECD/IEA 2013
Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020
Emissions savings in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, 2020
Four measures can stop the growth in emissions by 2020 at no net economic cost, reducing emissions by 3.1 Gt, 80% of the savings required for a 2 °C path
4-for-2°C Scenario delivers savings of
3.1 Gt CO2-eq 49%
21%
18%
12% Implement selected
energy efficiency policies
Limit use of inefficient coal power plants
Reduce methane releases from upstream
oil and gas
Partial removal of fossil-fuel subsidies
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 1: Improve energy efficiency
Emissions savings in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario, 2020
Energy efficiency reduces emissions by 1.5 Gt, led by minimum energy performance standards – additional investment is more than offset by fuel bill savings
20% 40%
Buildings
Industry
Transport
80% 100%
Industrial motors
Heating & cooling
60%
Appliances & lighting
Road
Share of efficiency savings
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 2: Limit the use of inefficient coal power plants
Change in electricity demand & coal-fired electricity generation from the least-efficient plants, 2020
Energy efficiency and reducing the role of the least-efficient coal power plants have important co-benefits for local air pollution
-1 000
- 800
- 600
- 400
- 200
United States
European Union China India
Lower electricity demand
Lower electricity generation from least- efficient coal plants
TWh 0
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 3: Reduce methane releases into the atmosphere
Methane emissions from the upstream oil and gas industry, 2020
In 2010, methane releases were 1.1 Gt CO2-eq; halving the level in 2020 would save twice the gas production of Nigeria today
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
United States
Other OECD
Middle East
Russia Africa Other Non-OECD
Reduction in 4-for-2 °C Scenario
Mt CO2-eq
© OECD/IEA 2013
Measure 4: Phase out fossil-fuel subsidies
Savings in the 4-for-2 °C Scenario: 360 Mt
Fossil-fuel subsidies in 2011 were equivalent to an incentive of $110 per tonne of CO2
Middle East 54%
Africa 15%
Russia
Other non-OECD
14%
7%
Latin America
11%
© OECD/IEA 2013
The energy sector needs to adapt to climate change
The energy sector needs to increase its resilience to the physical impacts of climate change
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
o C
o C
o C
o C
o C o C
o C
o C o C
o C
Increase of droughts and/or heat waves
Power plant cooling impacted
© OECD/IEA 2013
Change in tropical cyclones and storms
Typical cyclones and track directions
The energy sector needs to adapt to climate change
The energy sector needs to increase its resilience to the physical impacts of climate change
Exposed oil and gas infrastructure
© Natural hazards adapted from Munich RE (2011)
© OECD/IEA 2013
Some fossil-fuel reserves remain underground
Potential CO2 emissions from proven fossil-fuel reserves to 2050
On today’s trends, half of the proven fossil-fuel reserves would be left undeveloped to 2050 – stronger climate action would increase the share
0
400
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
Coal Oil Gas
If all proven reserves were used
New Policies Scenario
Gt
450 Scenario
Additional emissions in New Policies Scenario
– stronger climate action would increase the share
© OECD/IEA 2013
A diverse portfolio matters in the power sector
Net revenues for new power plants by scenario, 2012-2035
Under a 2 °C path, total net revenues for new power plants are $3 trillion higher –
2
4
6
8
Nuclear Fossil fuels Renewables
New Policies Scenario
450 Scenario
Trillion dollars (2011)
CCS fitted
CCS is an effective protection strategy for fossil fuel assets
© OECD/IEA 2013
Key messages
Despite encouraging steps in some countries, global emissions keep rising and the scientific evidence of climate change increases
Early national action is required while negotiating towards a global deal in Paris in 2015 that then comes into force by 2020
Four measures can stop emissions growth by 2020 and keep the 2°C target alive, without harming economic growth
There is a need for parallel action to deploy critical low-carbon technologies at scale after 2020, including CCS
The energy sector must adapt to climate change, both in the resilience of its existing assets and in future investment decisions
© OECD/IEA 2013
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/energyclimatemap
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