IEA Energy Technology Perspectives for the Cement Industry · PDF fileIEA Energy Technology Perspectives for the Cement Industry ... Energy Efficiency Indicators : ... Cement production

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Eric Masanet

Head, Energy Demand Technology Unit

7-8 October 2015 – ICEF Conference, Tokyo

IEA Energy Technology Perspectives for the Cement Industry

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Specific thermal energy consumption in clinker production

Note: Historical data from CSI’s GNR database. Source: Energy Efficiency Indicators : Essentials for Policymaking, IEA, 2014.

Clinker making is becoming more efficient but…

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…further action is needed to reduce the cement CO2 footprint

Global industrial direct CO2 emissions and final energy use

6DS

2DS

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How can the cement sector move from the current situation…

Energy consumption for cement production by fuel

Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.

41%

13%

30%

3%13%

2012: 1.6 EJOECD

70%

12%

7%

9%

2%

2012: 9.6 EJ

Coal Electricity Oil Gas Biomass & waste

Non-OECD

21%

18%

17%

11%

33%

2050: 1.5 EJ

39%

17%6%

13%

25%

20.5: 9.2 EJ

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…to a sustainable future?

Energy consumption for cement production by fuel

Note: 2050 energy consumption based on ETP 2DS scenario Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.

41%

13%

30%

3%13%

2012: 1.6 EJOECD

70%

12%

7%

9%

2%

2012: 9.6 EJ

Coal Electricity Oil Gas Biomass & waste

Non-OECD

21%

18%

17%

11%

33%

2050: 1.5 EJ

39%

17%6%

13%

25%

20.5: 9.2 EJ

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Increasing cement production poses a challenge,

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Clinker Substitutes Thermal energy intensity

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Cement production and thermal clinker energy intensity by region

Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.

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... that opens new opportunities

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Cement production and thermal clinker energy intensity by region

Note: Future years based on ETP 2DS scenario. Source: IEA, TCEP 2015.

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ETP Industry Model developments aim at investigating low-carbon technology scenarios

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ETP Times Cement model scope

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ETP 2015 investigated the role of energy technology innovation in meeting climate mitigation goals

Industrial analysis key findings:

Progress on low-carbon industrial innovation over the next decade is crucial to achieve the 2DS with non-OECD countries being pivotal.

Integrating CCS, improving resource efficiency, reusing industrial wastes and diversifying product applications should be cross-sectoral industry goals.

Economic and policy uncertainty, and the need to manage risk and maintain competitive advantage, create substantial challenges to innovation progress.

Existing measurement methods are inadequate to assess low-carbon industrial innovation performance.

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Direct industrial CO2 emissions 6DS vs 2DS

Low-carbon innovative processes become critical in the post-2030 timeframe to achieve 2DS trajectory.

6DS

2DS

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Cement direct CO2 emissions reductions 6DS vs 2DS by technology

Between 50% and 60% of required CO2 emissions reduction in the cement sector in 2DS in 2050 relies on deployment of innovative processes.

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Direct industrial CO2 emissions reductions 6DS vs 2DS from innovative processes by region in the cement sector

Non-OECD countries are pivotal: growing materials demand and increasing importance in global markets, raise their potential to deploy innovative industrial processes more widely.

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2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

GtC

O2

Low-demand

China India Other developing Asia Non-OECD Latin America Africa and Middle East Economies in transition OECD

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LOW-CARBON CEMENTS

INTEGRATING CCS

Cement main innovative low-carbon options

Note: This slide is not intended to provide an exhaustive list. Sketch is not at scale and time milestones are just illustrative.

POST-COMBUSTION CO2 CAPTURE

OXY-FUEL COMBUSTION FOR CO2 CAPTURE

PILOT PHASE

2030 2050 2015

LOW-CARBON PROCESS INNOVATION

LOW-CARBON PRODUCT INNOVATION

AETHER CALIX CELITEMENT …

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R&D intensity of companies within top 2000 world ranking by sector and region, 2012

Chemical businesses invest over five times as much as companies in other sectors in average pushed by the pharmaceutical sector.

Note: R&D intensity expressed as R&D spending as a share of sales. Source: The 2013 EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard (dataset), EC-2013.

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Business R&D spending in selected industrial sectors by region

OECD

CHINA

Note: Measured in terms of purchasing power parity expressed in current prices. Source: The OECD Analytical BERD (ANBERD) Database, OECD – 2014.

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Opportunities for policy action

Design of stable, long-term sustainable and internationally coordinated strategies that valorise low-carbon industrial activity.

Implementation of transparent and results-oriented investment risk mitigating mechanisms targeting low-carbon industrial technologies.

Collaboration between industry and governments in the prioritisation of innovative sustainable industrial technologies and products.

Creation of co-operative innovation frameworks balancing cross-sectoral and international collaboration along product value chains.

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Overview of IEA roadmap process

Engage cross-section of stakeholders

Identify a baseline:

Where is technology today?

Establish a vision:

What is the deployment path needed to achieve 2050 goals?

Identify technical, regulatory, policy, financial, public acceptance barriers

What are the near term action items?

Develop implementation action items for stakeholders

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Low-Carbon Technology Roadmaps – Industry related

Brazil cement:

Kick-off meeting Sept 2014

Collaboration among SNIC/ABCP, WBCSD-CSI and IEA

IEA modelling framework

Available at http://www.iea.org/roadmaps/

2009 2013 2015 Tentative 2017

Cement India Cement

Chemical catalysis

CCS

Hydrogen Brazil Cement

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Thank you