Emma A. Fauni +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]To subscribe to our Daily Focus, please contact us at [email protected]Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Rapid growth of logistics segment Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Juli 31, 2018 IMJS - The seed of success has been planted Kami berkunjung ke Indomobil Multi Jasa (IMJS/Not Rated), sebuah perursahaan multijasa otomotif yang utamanya bergerak di bisnis pembiayaan. IMJS (yang mana merupakan anak perusahaan dari Indomobil Sukses Internasional, atau IMAS) akan berkembang lebih jauh melalui segmen logistiknya yang sedang dirintis. Well-established financing and rental company Segmen pembiayaan IMJS’ (melalui anak usahanya, IMFI) memiliki rekam jejak yang sudah terbukti lama di Indonesia. Segmen pembiayaan berkontribusi 58,3% dari total penerimaan IMJS, sementara 41,7% sisanya berasal dari segmen penyewaan mobil dan logistik. Segmen penyewaan mobil (melalui anak usahanya, Indorent) menyewakan berbagai merek mobil penumpang ke pelanggan korporasi dengan kontrak jangka panjang. Penetration into lucrative logistics business to bear fruit IMJS memperoleh manfaat dari industri truk yang terus bertumbuh. Sejak mengakuisisi Seino pada akhir 2015, bisnis logistik berkembang signifikan, dengan penerimaan berkembang dua kali lipat dari IDR95miliar pada 2016 (berkontribusi 3,9% terhadap keseluruhan penerimaan IMJS) menjadi IDR196miliar pada 2017 (7,2% terhadap keseluruhan penerimaan IMJS). Jumlah armada juga naik dari 1.095 truk di 2017 menjadi 1.470 truk di 1H18. Perusahaan menargetkan untuk memiliki 3.226 truk dengan penerimaan sekitar IDR680miliar di akhir 2018. Jika angka ini tercapai, dengan segmen lain tetap, maka kontribusi logistik terhadap total penerimaan IMJS dapat meningkat menjadi sekitar 25%, memebuat logistic menjadi salah satu sumber penerimaan signifikan untuk IMJS. Financial analysis & valuation Dari tahun ke tahun, IMJS telah menghasilkan pertumbuhan penerimaan secara berkelanjutan sembari mengelola beban agar tetap stabil. Penerimaan naik +16,5% CAGR dari 2013-2017. Secara year-to-date, saham IMJS memberikan performa yang baik dengan +131,2%. Melihat prospek yang menarik ke depannya, saham IMJS cukup menarik dengan P/B 1,3x. Yang menjadi risiko penurunan yaitu pelemahanan ekonomi. Market Index Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY JCI 6,027.9 0.6 3.3 2.5 MSCI Indonesia 24.2 0.4 5.0 -10.0 MSCI EM 1,090.1 -0.2 2.1 2.5 HANG SENG 28,733.1 -0.2 -0.5 5.4 KOSPI 2,293.5 -0.3 -1.4 -4.5 FTSE 7,700.9 0.0 0.8 4.5 DJIA 25,306.8 -0.6 4.9 16.3 NASDAQ 7,630.0 -1.4 3.0 21.9 Valuation 2018F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) JCI 15.5 2.3 17.5 Key Rates Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY BI 7-Day RR 5.25 0 50 0 3yr 7.42 -5 -23 68 10yr 7.73 -2 -7 78 FX Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY USD/IDR 14,415.00 0.0 0.2 8.2 USD/KRW 1,120.40 0.2 0.0 0.1 USD/JPY 111.04 0.0 0.1 0.7 USD/CNY 6.82 0.3 2.2 1.3 Commodities Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY WTI 70.1 2.1 -5.4 33.8 Gold 1,221.5 -0.2 -1.7 -3.8 Coal 115.6 0.3 1.0 32.5 Palm Oil 2,129.0 0.3 -7.4 -20.1 Rubber 117.9 0.0 -4.4 -13.0 Nickel 13,860.0 0.0 -7.0 35.9 Copper 6,250.0 -0.7 -5.7 -1.9 Tin 20,025.0 0.5 0.9 -3.3 JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets 550 800 1,050 1,300 1,550 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 01/17 05/17 09/17 01/18 05/18 JCI MSCI EM (pt) (pt) 95 196 3.9 7.2 0 2 4 6 8 50 100 150 200 250 300 2016 2017 (%) (IDR bn) Revenue (L) % to total IMJS revenue (R)
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(IDR bn) % to total IMJS revenue (R) (%) 300 8 7.2 250 6 ... fileperursahaan multijasa otomotif yang utamanya bergerak di bisnis pembiayaan. IMJS (yang mana merupakan anak perusahaan
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Relative Avg.Price Performance to JCI (%) : Persentase kenaikan harga saham dari rata-rata sejak IHSG memulai uptrend-nya β (beta) : Indikator sensitivitas harga saham terhadap IHSG, beta diatas 1 berarti harga makin sensitif terhadap pergerakan IHSG dan sebaliknya Correlation : Ukuran kuat hubungan (korelasi) pergerakan harga saham dibanding dengan pergerakan IHSG selama periode analisis. Period : Periode uptrend / downtrend yang valid dari pergerakan harga saham. r-squared : Koefisien determinasi, menunjukkan persentase gerakan yang dapat dijelaskan dengan regresi linier.Nilai R2 terletak antara 0 – 1, dan kecocokan model dikatakan lebih baik kalau R2 semakin mendekati 1 (validitas uptrend atau downtrend makin valid) Volatility (+/-%) : Besaran volatilitas normal positif/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak normal pada trend channel dalam persentase. Volatility (+/- point or Rp) : Besaran volatilitas normal positifl/negatif dari pergerakan harga harian selama harga saham bergerak dalam periode analisis.
Buy: : Beli, harga sudah menyentuh atau jatuh di bawah support dan indikator teknikal berada di oversold area. Sell: : Jual, harga sudah menyentuh atau tembus resistance normal dan indikator berada di overbought area. BoW: : Buy on Weakness, beli ketika harga sudah melemah, dimana volume tekanan jual mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati support, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di oversold area. SoS: : Sell on Strength, jual ketika kenaikan harga sudah mulai terbatas dimana volume beli mulai berkurang dan harga mendekati resistance, serta indikator teknikal sudah berada di overbought area. Trading Buy: : Beli dan jual kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level resistance terdekat, karena kenaikan harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara. Trading Sell : Jual dan beli kembali secepatnya jika harga sudah mencapai level support terdekat karena koreksi harga relatif tidak stabil atau hanya sementara.
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,088.2
_____ 955.5
850
1,013.3
Medco Energi International Tbk [ MEDC.JK
Prev . Av g. Price: 1,013.3
R-Squared: 0.8235
Period: 137
Std.Dev : 1.36
Volatility (+) : 0.0739
Volatility (-) : -0.0571
V-Ratio : 1.29
Chg.: 2.00%
1,020
May 31Jun Jul Aug
MEDC.JK - Volume = 22,902,200.00
22,902,200
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,168.4
_____ 866.0
971.7
Medco Energi International Tbk [ MEDC.JK
Prev . Av g. Price: 971.7
R-Squared: 0.7952
Period: 33
Std.Dev : 1.26
Volatility (+) : 0.2025
Volatility (-) : -0.1087
V-Ratio : 1.86
Chg.: 5.70%
1,020
Jul Oct 2018 Jul
MEDC.JK - Volume = 614,786,112.00
614,786,112
Created with AmiBroker - adv anced charting and technical analy sis sof tware. http://www.amibroker.com
_____ 1,035.4
_____ 985.7
788.3
775.8
815.2
875.3
839.8
850.0
1,238.3
1,013.3
1,042.2
Medco Energi International Tbk [ MEDC.JK
Prev . Av g. Price: 1,013.3
R-Squared: 0.8582
Period: 101
Std.Dev : 1.47
Volatility (+) : 0.0218
Volatility (-) : -0.0273
V-Ratio : 0.80
Chg.: 2.00%
1,020
16 23 30
MEDC.JK - Volume = 22,902,200.00
22,902,200
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Chart 22. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 23. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 24. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 25. Energy price
V
Note: The latest figure for India are July 27th, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 26. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 27. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
13,400
13,800
14,200
14,600
5,400
5,800
6,200
6,600
4/30 5/28 6/25 7/23
(IDR) (pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
0.6
1.9
3.9
3.2
0.9 1.0
2.0
1.0
0
4
8
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative(%, %p)
-24 -41
16 69
10
82
191
98 111
176
32
427
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days (USDmn) (USDmn)
80
90
100
110
120
130
4/30 5/28 6/25 7/23
CPO WTI Coal(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
85
95
105
115
125
04/18 05/18 06/18 07/18
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
85
90
95
100
105
110
04/18 05/18 06/18 07/18
(D-3M=100) Silver Gold Platinum
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Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
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Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,461.5 1.0 FREN IJ 138 14,311 15.00
Mining 2,173.6 2.7
HRUM IJ 3140 8,489 10.18
Basic-Industry 807.4 1.0 INDY IJ 3840 20,007 8.78
Miscellaneous Industry 1,233.8 1.5 WSKT IJ 2150 29,184 7.50
Consumer Goods 2,482.4 0.6 DSSA IJ 20975 16,162 7.29
Property & Construction 454.7 0.8
WIKA IJ 1570 14,083 6.80
Infrastructure 1,084.2 -0.2 ADRO IJ 2090 66,851 6.36
Finance 1,051.1 0.5 ANTM IJ 955 22,949 6.11
Trade 868.4 -0.1 PTPP IJ 2280 14,136 5.56
Composite 6,027.9 0.6 BYAN IJ 19000 63,333 4.97 Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
BMRI IJ 2.3 6,725 TLKM IJ -0.8 3,910
ASII IJ 1.8 7,100 PTBA IJ -5.2 4,360
ADRO IJ 6.4 2,090 UNVR IJ -0.5 44,100
GGRM IJ 2.6 74,400 TRIO IJ -7.3 635
BYAN IJ 5.0 19,000 BSDE IJ -4.4 1,425 Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
1:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.9 43.7
1:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -2.5% 1.3%
2:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 1.1% -2.1%
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
2:45am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m -0.3% 0.0%
3:00am EUR Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.7% 0.7%
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -10K -15K
4:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.8% 10.7%
5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.0% 2.0%
5:00am EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.0% 0.9%
5:00am EUR Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4%
5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2%
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate 8.3% 8.4%
8:30am CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.1%
8:30am CAD RMPI m/m 2.7% 3.8%
8:30am CAD IPPI m/m 0.3% 1.0%
8:30am USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2%
8:30am USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.7% 0.8%
8:30am USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.2%
8:30am USD Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.4%
9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.4% 6.6%
9:45am USD Chicago PMI 61.9 64.1
10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence 126.5 126.4
6:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 57.4
6:45pm NZD Employment Change q/q 0.4% 0.6%
6:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.4%
6:45pm NZD Labor Cost Index q/q 0.6% 0.3%
7:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -0.5%
8:30pm JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 51.6 51.6
9:45pm CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.9 51.0 Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time
Source: Forex Factory
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