Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia), 8-9 April 2014 Henny A.J. van Lanen Recent achievements in drought research and science-policy interfacing
IDMP CEE 2nd workshop: Recent Achievements in Drought research by Henny A.J. van Lanen
Jan 13, 2015
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Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Henny A.J. van Lanen
Recent achievements in drought research and
science-policy interfacing
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Water under future climate
Schewe et al. (PNAS, 2013)
Change annual flow
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Urgent questions
What is the current situation globally, and in Europe?
What are the observed trends?
● Do we observe more frequent or severe drought?
What will the future bring?
● Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought?
● Will water become more scarce?
What to do?
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought: recurrent phenomenon
EEA (2012)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought – trends observed flow
Stahl et al., HESS (2010)
OBSERVED mean annual flow OBSERVED August flow
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Lack of observed river flow
Unequal spatial
distribution
Stahl et al. (HESS, 2010)
Drought – trends observed flow
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought: pan-European trends
Trends in SIMULATED August flow
(1963-2001)
decreasing
increasing
Stahl et al. (HESS, 2012)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought: model uncertainty
Van Huijgevoort et al.
(J of Hydrometeo, 2013)
Model agreement: drought in runoff
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Trends and interdecal variability
Hannaford et al. (HESS, 2012)
Start year dryer wetter
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Trends and interdecal variability
Hannaford et al. (HESS, 2012)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought trend identification
Confidence limited / uncertainty:
lack of observational data
definitional issues
inability of models to include all the factors that influence droughts
e.g. IPCC-SREX (2012)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Urgent questions
What is the current situation globally, and in Europe?
What are the observed trends?
● Do we observe more frequent or severe drought?
What will the future bring?
● Shall we face more frequent, longer or severe drought?
● Will water become more scarce?
What to do?
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future DROUGHT
IPCC SPM WGI (2013)
Photo: Jay Janner
IPCC – AR5: Likelihood of further changes
Early 21st century: low confidence
Late 21st century: likely (medium confidence) on a regional to global scale
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Orlowski & Seneviratne (HESS, 2013)
Mediterranean
soil moisture drought
meteorological drought
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Orlowski & Seneviratne (HESS, 2013)
Mediterranean
soil moisture drought
Central Europe
meteorological drought
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Mediterranean Number of
droughts
Wanders & Van Lanen, (NHESSD, 2013)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Mediterranean
Average drought
duration
Wanders & Van Lanen, (NHESSD, 2013)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Future hydrological drought
(model performance past)
Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014)
Kolyma (Siberia) Meuse (F-B-NL)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Future hydrological drought
(change in low flows)
Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014)
Kolyma (Siberia) Meuse (F-B-NL)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future drought
Future hydrological drought
(change in low flows)
Van Huigevoort et al. (JoH, 2014)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Future Water stress in Europe
Floerke et al. (2011);
EEA (2012)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Challenges (example folllow-up)
Dialogue Fora (e.g. scientists,
policy makers, stakeholders)
Science-Policy interfacing across scales
Case Study Dialogue Platform Fora (6 Case Study Areas)
pan-European Dialogue Platform Forum
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
EU-FP7 DROUGHT-R&SPI
Dialogue Fora: different scales/novel formats
www.eu-drought.org
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Challenges (examples-follow-up)
DROUGHT and WATER SCARCITY
platforms:
● EU-WFD Expert Group on
Water Scarcity and Drought
● European Drought Centre (EDC)
● European Drought Observatory (EDO)
● GWP Integrated Drought Management
Programme (e.g. IDMP CEE)
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
European Drought Centre (EDC)
www.geo.uio.no/edc
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
European Drought Centre (EDC)
EDC: signing up
www.geo.uio.no/edc
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
European Drought Centre (EDC)
EDC: signing up
www.geo.uio.no/edc
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Drought and Water Scarcity
Concluding Remarks
● Observed trends in drought heavily depend on selected period
(climate variability vs. change)
● Drought projection are uncertain, but we should distinguish between
types/typologies
● Water scarcity depends on socio-economic/environmental scenario
we decide to follow
● Drought management is part of integrated land and water
management and should combine both natural and social sciences
● Various platforms to exchange knowledge and experiences across
drought expertise’ fields
Workshop Integrated Drought Management in Central and
Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE), Ljubljana (Slovenia),
8-9 April 2014
Thank you
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