IUFRO 2014 Salt Lake City: Session C-02 (193) From Understanding Drivers To Gaining Leverage At The Tropical Forest Margins: 20 Years of ASB Partnership Identifying Policy Levers Of Deforestation and Recovery Of Tree Cover From The Driver Analyses: A Case Study From Indonesia Sonya Dewi, Andree Ekadinata, Asri Joni
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Identifying Policy Levers Of Deforestation and Recovery Of Tree Cover From The Driver Analyses: A Case Study From Indonesia
o Spatially explicit data from various contexts in Indonesia shows that a very specific understanding of drivers of deforestation and recovery of tree cover is needed as they vary from context to context. Specific leverage points can be identified by understanding this interconnectedness and variation amongst the drivers
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IUFRO 2014 Salt Lake City: Session C-02 (193) From Understanding Drivers To Gaining Leverage At The Tropical Forest Margins: 20 Years of ASB Partnership
Identifying Policy Levers Of Deforestation and Recovery Of Tree CoverFrom The Driver Analyses: A Case Study From Indonesia
Sonya Dewi, Andree Ekadinata, Asri Joni
BackgroundProposed methodsResultsConclusions
Outline
Background
Descriptive: quantification of land use and cover changes and analysis of association of factors influencing and patterns of LUCC: what, how much, where, when – empirical studies
Explanatory: process of LUCC driven by proximate causes, underlying causes: who, how and why, interdependencies – conceptual framework
Predictive: future LUCC given proximate and underlying factors – spatial-quantitative up to proximate causes, econometric with underlying causes
So-what? Recommendation for intervention: policy levers to change the course toward promoting what should happen and avoiding what should not happen – should be specific and effective
Existing driver analysis/studies
Drivers
B1. Incentive structure through policy change (tax, subsidy etc)
A2. LU rights (e.g. community forest mngmnt)
B2. PES and conditional ES incentives
Response/ feedback options
Biodiversity, Watershed functions, GHG emissions,
Landscape beauty
Actors/ agents
Land use/coverchanges
Conse-quences &functions
Livelihoods, provisioning & profitability
A1. Land use policies, spatial development planning
Rights-based approaches
Economic incentives
Van Noordwijk, M., B. Lusiana, G. Villamor, H. Purnomo, and S. Dewi. 2011. Feedback loops added to four conceptual models linking land change with driving forces and actors. Ecology and Society 16(1): r1. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/resp1/
Deforestation is always bad and all has to be avoided
Deforestation is the only LUCC that matters There is no co-variation between
deforestation and other LUCC (completely independent processes of decision making)
There is no co-variation between causes/factors of LUCC
Implicit assumptions
reforestation and regrowth
Landuse and cover changes
Link between descriptive-quantitative pattern and causal processes and interdependencies among them
Be consistent and comparable with data and analysis Acknowledge legal and customary norms on top of
biophysical characteristics within zonation Capture, discuss and use knowledge and perception
of multiple stakeholders Synthesize local-specific contexts across
heterogeneous larger landscape to allow upscaling
In participatory processes to identify and negotiate policy levers from drivers at the planning stage
Needs
Proposed method
Local Knowledge on Land Use/Cover Change
• Historic and future land use change • Criteria and indicators for ‘legitimate’ and ‘illegitimate’
• Factors and causes; interdependencies
2
3
Knowledge• Identify policy levers at multiple levels • Formulate recommendation• Synthesis and comparative analysis
Action• Discussion and scenario development• Scenario simulation through what-if tools
such as LUMENS, LUWES• Negotiate way forward
5
Network Analysis of drivers of LUCC• •Quantify pattern of agent- and zone-specific changes, configuration,
•Structural network model of factors, causes, interdependencies• Policy Network Analysis or Analytic Network Process
• Dissemination, interpretation, iteration
4
Pattern Analysis of Land Use/Cover Change• Quantitative descriptive analysis of both side of
the curves: trajectory• Local variability/heterogeneity
1
Causes and factors (Nodes): Proximate causes Underlying causes Triggering events CapitalsInterdependencies of factors: Nature of relationships/interaction: direct
Total area of South Sumatra is 9.1 million hectare
Permanent in-migration for 2010 is estimated at 1,01 mil. people while the out-migration is 779,239 people
The population density in 2014 is estimated at 81 ppl/sq.km. Country average is 124 ppl/sq.km. Rate of population increase in South Sumatra is 1.85%/years.
HDI of South Sumatra has increased from 70.2 in 2005 to 74.3 in 2013 which is higher than average HDI in Indonesia (73.8) (source: http://www.bps.go.id/)
Papua is the largest province in Indonesia with total area of 31.9 million hectares.
The population density in 2010 is estimated at 8 ppl/sq.km. Rate of population increase in Papua is the highest in Indonesia, which reach 5.39%/years.
Permanent in-migration for 2010 is estimated at 435,773 people while the out-migration is 87,545 people
Human development index of Papua has increased from 62.08 in 2005 to 66.25 in 2013 although it is still below average HDI in Indonesia (73.8)
Land Use Changes
PAPUASOUTH SUMATRA
Land Use Trajectories Maps
Land use trajectories in Papua within the period of 1990-2010 were dominated by loss of tree cover/forest to logged over forest, while in South Sumatra, the most dominant land use trajectories were recovery to tree cropping
Land Use Trajectories across LU Zones
PAPUASOUTH SUMATRA
Recovery to tree cropping
Recovery to forest
Recovery to agroforest
Other
Loss to logged-over forest
Loss to infrastructure
Loss to cropland
Loss to bare land
Network Analysis
Drivers of Forest and Tree cover loss to Agriculture (Sumatra Selatan)
DRIVERS OF FOREST AND TREE COVER LOSS TO AGRICULTURE (PAPUA)
Drivers of Forest and Tree cover loss to Agriculture (Papua)
DRIVERS OF RECOVERY OF TREE COVER (PAPUA)
Drivers of Recovery of Tree Cover (Papua)
DRIVERS OF RECOVERY OF AGROFOREST (PAPUA)
Drivers of Recovery of Agroforest(Papua)
Cap-human
Cap-financial
Cap-natural
Prox-i
nfra
Und-cult
Und-demo
Und-eco
Und-pol0
0.10.20.30.40.5
Drivers of Loss to agriculture
SumSel Papua
People's environmental awarenessGovernment program for housing
Demand for land for housingLand availibility
Partnerships with investorsCultural changes
Lack of law enforcementGovernment program for community empowerment
High market price for commoditiesPopulation growthDemand for food
Infrastructure developmentDemand for local economic growth
Local customsNeed to increase local revenue
TransmigrationLand suitability for agricultureDemand for increasing incomeFood self sufficiency program
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200
South Sumatra
Land suitability for agriculture
People's environmental awareness
People's skill
Population growth
Demand for jobs/employment
Demand for land for housing
Transmigration
Local migration
Improvement of local livelihood
Demand for food
0.000 0.050 0.100
Papua
Leverage points
Land suitability for agroforestForest degradation
TransmigrationFood self sufficiency program
PrivatizationMarket demand for tree crop commodity
Demand for improvement of local livelihoodDemand for NTFP
High market price of tree crop commoditiesLack of law enforcementLocal economic growth
Demand for woodLocal customs
Wood extractionInformation and technology
Population growthPeople's environmental awareness
Cultural changesLand grabbing
Land availibilityGovernment program for community empowerment
Easy access to marketPartnerships with investors
Demand for employmentLand suitability for tree crop
Rehabilitation programNeed to increase local revenueDemand for higher hh income
Drivers are often connected in a graph-like structure rather than a list or tree or a fish bone
Locally specific leverage points can be identified through understanding interconnectedness and covariance across drivers
Comparisons between areas are possible; extrapolation domain can be found
The process is useful beyond its output; it stimulates multiple stakeholder to think and discuss the drivers and levers analytically and iteratively
Options of leverage points can then be further formulated into scenarios, taken Zoning into account, and simulated in a tool that allow ex-ante impacts to be analyzed, such as LUMENS (Land Use Planning for Environmental Services) tool