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Identifying and Managing Uncertainty for Post-closure Safety

Assessments in Support of Repository Development

Programmes

Dr John Heathcote, Dounreay Site Restoration Ltd

Dr Roger Wilmot, Galson Sciences Ltd

Introductions

• Who we are – Name

– Country

– Technical background

• What are we doing/about to do – Something about radioactive waste disposal in

your country

– What you are doing

• What we hope to learn

John Heathcote

• UK

• Hydrogeologist, with particular expertise in chemistry and numerical techniques

• Now making the case for residual contamination and historic waste disposals at Dounreay

• Previously involved in UK’s deep disposal programme

Roger Wilmot

• UK

• Geologist, with experience in developing safety cases and regulatory review

• Currently working on programmes in UK, Sweden, Belgium

• Supported development of new regulatory guidance in UK

Isabel Paiva IST/ITN/UPSR

• PT

• Chemist/Bio and other adventures (Ph.D in Chem.Eng.)

• Radioactive waste management expertise (UMM/membranes)

• Teaching at the University and training of professionals

• National representative (Vienna, Brussels)

• Learning Geology and Geochemistry! Love it!

• Working in the lab with soils, rañas and 137Cs!

• Keen to learn a lot from this Course! New subject!

BEFORE

AFTER

AMAZING SITE!

Peter Ormai • Hungarian

• Radiochemistry, PhD

• Radioactive waste management at NPP, then at RWM Agency

• Previously leading expert in Hungary’s disposal programmes

• IAEA involvement: ISAM, ASAM (WG leader)

• IAEA, Waste Technology Section

Course Objectives

• At the end of the course you should:

– Have an understanding of the significance of uncertainty

– Know how to perform assessment calculations involving uncertain data

– Have an understanding of how to manage uncertainty in assessments

– Have thought about how to communicate uncertainty

Course Outline

• It is a journey! We will learn from each other. Please interact and ask questions. We WILL be asking you questions!

• Presentation of theory relevant to uncertainty

• International approaches to uncertainty

• Working with uncertainty to produce a safety assessment – using worked examples

• Management of uncertainty

• Communication of results to stakeholders

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