Identification of plausible futures

S2. Identification of plausible futures

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S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios

S3.8 From scenarios to action

S0.1 Define the limits of the system

S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

S0 – Defining the system

S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future

S2 – Identification of plausible futures

S3 – Definition of a strategy

Detailed steps

2

Objective - define possible future states of the driving forces

Method

Group discussion

“Brainstorming”

Output

Contrasted and mutually exclusive states for each driving force

S2.6 Define the states of the driving forces

3

A state is an hypothesis about what could happen to a force; it is a description of this force in the future

Several states are considered including ruptures

For each force, the states must be contrasted and mutually exclusive (two states cannot happen simultaneously)

What is a state?

4

Knowledge about the force of change is necessary Document each force of change about its past situation, its

evolution up today, what made it change, and how it could change in the future

Consider trends and ruptures Think about desirable and undesirable states

Think about what could probably happen (the trend)

Think about other possibilities

Be creative…

How to define states?

5

Draw a table with the driving forces in the first column and space for the states in the next columns

Take the first driving force and distribute colored cards

Write one state per card according to the color, for exple:pink= desirable grey=not desirable blue=trend yellow=rupture

Collect all cards and display them on a wall (grouping)

Discuss the cards until you reach a reasonable number of states (2-6) by ensuring that they are contrasted and mutually exclusive

Write the states in the corresponding line of the driving force

Repeat for the next driving force until completed

How to do it as a group?

6Support material: S2.6 Methodological Note

Example of states (Mayotte)

RuptureTrendDesirable Undesirable

Driving force 1 2 3 4 5

Behavior General Respect Local respect Erratic Reject Rupture

InfrastructuresUpgraded to European norms

MaintenanceSpatial heterogeneity

Focused on externalactivities

Degradation

ImmigrationIntegration of illegal migrants

Existence of illegal migrants

Expulsion of all illegal migrants

Majority of illegal migrants

Modes of Production

A new hybrid model

Promotion of local agriculture

Dual agricultureIntensive agriculture

No more agriculture

Land use management style

Concertation and care of actors’ expectations

Unilateral, top-down, no contestation

Numerouscentres of décision; no coordination

Conflits withthe population

Control and regulation of agriculture

Adaptation to local context

Enforced with communication

Limited and erratic application

Abandon of rules and controls

Local know-how and knowledge

PromotionHybridation with external knowledge

Simple transmission

Reject of non local knowledge

Disparition

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S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios

S3.8 From scenarios to action

S0.1 Define the limits of the system

S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces

S0 – Defining the system

S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future


S3 – Definition of a strategy

Detailed steps


8

Objective - Build scenarios exploring the widest range of possible evolutions of the system

Method Group discussion / brainstorming The frame of a scenario is a combination of different states

of the driving forces A scenario is a description of the system in the future : a

vision and a path that leads to that vision from now

Output Several contrasted and mutually exclusive scenarios

S2.7 Building scenarios

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A scenario is a description of how the future may unfold according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships between driving forces

A scenario is a story entailing an image of the future and indications on a path leading to that future

Each scenario must be plausible, contrasted and exclusive of all other scenarios

Altogether the scenarios cover a large range of possible evolutions

What is a scenario?

10

Use the table with the driving forces and their states Start with highlighting incompatible states vertically across

driving forces (see next slide for exercise)

Chose one state for each driving force and combine them to form a coherent set of hypotheses about the future

Consider trends, extremes, ruptures Think about desirable and undesirable scenarios

Think about what could probably happen (the trend)

Think about other possibilities

Be creative…

How to create a scenario?

11

How to find incompatible states?

Exercise with the participants: identify two incompatible states 12

1 2 3 4 5

A ICTDEVPT

High tech, high speed ICT facilities

affordable and accessible to all

people

Limited signal ICT facilities are

availale only for elites and

powerful

B

GOVATTITUDE

(incl.

ORGANICPOLIC

Y)

Strong will and commitment to

action to frame and implement

policies and programmes benfiting

the people including the poor

including promoting organic

agriculture policies

Collusion between local

governement and private

sector companies lead to

unfavorable local policies for

most local people including

promotion of high input

intensive agroindustrial

agrciculture

Good policies and

programmes for local

development are not

implemented

There is no more local

government and local

programmes are

decided and

implemented by local

representatives of

international

companies

local government

policies are only

implemented when

forces by citizens

organisations and

movements

C

RURALINFRAST

(incl.

AGPROCESSING

and

LOCALMARKINC

ENT)

Community-based agro-

infrastrucutres are run and

managed by farmer-led

agricooperatives thanks to energy

efficient and sustanaible rural

infrastructures present in all

communities enabling local

products to meet quality standards

and dominate local markets and

thanks to government regulating

farm gate prices

High cost and unequal access

to infrastrucutre induce unfair

competition with imported

products resulting in the

degradation of processinfg

infrastructures and absence of

incentives for local production

and local markets and prices

controled by monopolies and

cartels

All infrastrucutre defunct

including agro-

processing

infrastructures, no

incentives for local

production which is

limited ti self sufficiency

Modern infrastructures

and and advanced

agroprocessing

technologies target

specific market nices

for local prodcuts to be

sold internationnally

DPEOPLEBEHAV

Unity, solidarity in diversity,

cooperation through organized

groups

People are individualistic,

unorganized and insensitive to

others' needs

People belong to

organized groups which

cannot resolve their

differences leading to

conflict, war and anarchy

All citizens are

controlled by electronic

devices 24/7 and are

forces to behave

according to the norm

(not the elite)

ELOCORGCAP

Local organizations strongly

influence policies because they are

able to mobilize people locally and

build local developement initiatives

that they can implement by

themselves or negotiate with local

givernment

Local organisations have

limited influence on policies

because they are themselves

influenced by other

stakeholders (local

government, private sectors,

other organisations)

Local organizations

influence policies to

serve the interest of their

leaders and not the

members

Local organizations do

not influence policy

because they are

prohibited by anti-

crime, anti-terrorism

laws

FYOUTHAGRIC

Youth are actively engaged locally

in agriculture as independant

farmers and enthusiast about

profitable sustainable agriculture,

natural resources management

No youth want to engage in

agriculture, abandonning

farms and villages only to

those who have no other

option

Multinational companies

start large scale

operations and employ

youth in farm and

processing work as paid

workers

Some youth are

engaged in agriculture,

operating their farms

from larger cities where

they live

Defining the frames of the scenarios

The frame of a scenario is a combination of the code of the driving force and the number of the selected state

Display the table with the driving forces and their states

Distribute four different colored cards to each participant

Write one frame per card according to the color, for example

pink= desirable;

grey=not desirable;

blue=trend;

yellow=rupture;


A1B1C1D1E1F1G2

A2B2C2D3E2F3G3

A5B5C4D5E4F4G5

A5B5C4D2E3F4G4

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Driving force 1 2 3 4 5

A. Behavior General Respect Local Respect Erratic, impredictible

Reject Rupture

B. Infrastructure European standards

Maintenance High heterogeneity Focused on foreign exchanges

Degradation

C. Immigration Progressive integration of illegal migrants

Presence of illegal migrants

Expulsion of all illegal migrants

Majority of illegal migrants

D. Production pattern

New model based on local and external knowledge and technologies

Local model supported and promoted

Two models domination of intensive farming

Intensive, Survival of subsistence farming

Abandon, Survival of subsistence farming

E. Land use management

Concerted and inclusion of local actors expectations

Conflicts with the population

Unilateral, top-down, no protest

Numerous poles of decision, no coordination

F. Control and rules for AFLA

Adaptation to local specificities

Communication and stronger control and sanctions

Limited and erratic implementation

Abandon of rules and control

G. Local know-how and knowledge (LKK)

Promotion of LKK Preservation and transmission of LKK

Hybridization with external KK

Rejection of non local KK

Fading of LKK

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Examples of frames (Mayotte)

The Maore Garden The Trading Post

Defining the frames of the scenarios Collect all cards and display them on a wall (grouping them

by codes)

Discuss the frames until they form contrasted and mutually exclusive groups

Write the frame of each scenario putting together the states of the driving forces, finding some logics in their combination

If the logics seems hard to understand, discard that frame


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Writing states of the driving forces

Grouping the states

The final table of states

Writing frames

Grouping frames

Displaying the frames

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Developing the scenarios

For each frame, develop the scenarios by characterizing the state of the output forces

Then, define the state of the leverages that is consistent with the state of the driving forces and output forces

Complete with the bunch forces

Reflect on the outliers

How to do it in a group?

17Support material: S2.7 Methodological Note

Nine sceanrios of the place of agriculture and the rural world in Mayotte by 2020

The integrated rurality The Maore garden

The Trading postSelf-management

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Nine sceanriosof the place of agriculture and the rural world in Mayotte by 2020

The Patchwork Agri-entrepreneurs, commuters and tobe

The internal borderThe agricultural letdown Duality

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Identification of plausible futures

Science