DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2014 Why ICT is key for sustainable urban energy Frits Verheij, Director Smart Green Cities, DNV GL ICT4S, Amsterdam - NL, August 31, 2016 15 September 2016 1 Adding a new design to old-fashioned energy
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DNV GL © 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2014
Why ICT is key for sustainable urban energy
Frits Verheij, Director Smart Green Cities, DNV GL
ICT4S, Amsterdam - NL, August 31, 2016
15 September 20161
Adding a new design to old-fashioned energy
DNV GL © 2014
Outline
2
Brief introduction of DNV GL + ditto of TKI Urban Energy
Smart energy –creating value for a
sustainable decentralised energy
system
Digitization of energy systems –trends and some
examples
What should be on your R&D agenda?
DNV GL © 2014
Brief introduction of DNV GL
3
DNV GL © 20144
Industry consolidation
DNV GL © 2014
DNV GL purpose and vision
5
To safeguard life, property and the environment
Global impact for a safe and sustainable future
Purpose
Vision
DNV GL © 20146
Growing share of renewables
Security and ageing assets
Increasing global demand for
energy
Climate change and extreme
weather
Integration of energy markets
Transition to a safer, smarter and greener energy future
DNV GL © 2014
How we contribute to a safer, smarter and more sustainable world
Examples of our project portfolio:
§ Smart Cable Guard (SCG)
§ Smart Energy @ PowerMatching City
§ Energy Storage Roadmap
7
Policy Production Transmission & distribution UseTransmission & distribution
Use
DNV GL © 20148
Solving the Energy Trilemma
DNV GL © 2014
Brief introduction of TKI Urban Energy
9
TKI Urban Energys o l a r & s m a r t e n e r g y s o l u t i o n s
Dutch innovation policy: 9 ‘top sectors’ + ICT
Objective:§ stimulating (the environment for) innovation
§ improving international competitiveness
Approach:§ collaboration in ‘golden triangle’§ diminishing barriers
COMPANIES
SCIENCE & EDUCATION
GOVERNMENT
High techLife Sciences Agro-Food WaterLogisticsCreativeIndustryChemicals Horticulture Energy
The Top Sector Energy
One Board of Directors
Five Top consortia for Knowledge & Innovation (TKIs)§ driving innovation agendas, building ecosystems
500-600 organisations involved including 200-300 SMEs§ € 300M annual budget, 50% from industries
5 Top consortia on Knowledge and Innovation
§ Wind at Sea§ Gas§ Switch2SmartGrids§ EnerGo§ Solar Energy§ Bio-based Economy§ Energy & Industry
§ Cross-TKI programs§ Cross-overs with other Top Sectors
TKI Urban Energys o l a r & s m a r t e n e r g y s o l u t i o n s
Main objectives
1. Accelerating Energy Transition
2. Strengthening economic growth, export and jobs
Empowering the New Economy!
Human Capital: education for technology
Connect with small and medium sized enterprises
International agenda on sharing knowledge: IEA, ERA-NET, Horizon 2020
Enhancing export potential (connecting in other countries)
Connecting with the strengths of regions within the Netherlands
Marketing: what will it take for society to accept innovations?
Strategic themes of Top Sector Energy
Energy supply today: centralised with separate networks
Energy supply in future: towards integrated glocalisation
Domain of TKI Urban Energy
ICT is key in our future ‘energy wheel’
Scope of TKI Urban Energy
§ Innovations regarding PV-Solar, heat and cold, energy efficiency, and integration and intelligent control of the entire energy system in the built environment
18
PL#2#Koude#en#Warmte#
Programmalijn#1#Zonnestroomtechnologie#(PV)#
Programmalijn#5#Energieregelsystemen#
en#?diensten#
Programmalijn#3#MulBfuncBonele#
bouwdelen#
Programmalijn#2#Warmte?#en#koude?#
installaBes#
Programmalijn#4#Flexibele#energie?#infrastructuur#
DNV GL © 2015
Smart energy –creating value for a sustainable decentralised energy system
19
DNV GL © 2014
Climate change is at top of mind of governments and industry …
20
DNV GL © 2014
… and already affects our live (1) –Storm surge flooding for Copenhagen and surrounding areas (2011)
21
DNV GL © 2014
… and already affects our live (2) –Superstorm Sandy caused blackout of 8.1 million homes in US (2011)
22
Left: simulation of flooding extent of Long Island in 2050
Below: actual situation after Sandy in 2011
Power providers reported outages in every state from North Carolina to the Canadian border and as far inland as Ohio and Indiana.
DNV GL © 2014
Energy transition needed to realise climate change targets e.g. in Europe
EU decarbonisation scenarios changing the energy mix2030 and 2050 range of fuel shares in primary energy consumption compared with 2005 outcome (%)
23 Source: Energy Roadmap 2050, European Commission
Electrification of energy consumption changing the business models of utilities, and othersShare of electricity in current trend and in decarbonisationscenario’s (% of final energy demand)
2030 2050
RES
Gas
Nu
clea
r
Oil
Sol
id F
uel
s
RES
Gas
Nu
clea
r
Oil
Sol
id F
uel
s
2005
Range of decarbonisationscenarios
Range for current trends scenarios
Electricity use as part of the energy mix
DNV GL © 2014
Socio-economy
§ Decentralisation, next to Europeanisation
§ Digitization
Energy transition strengthened by socio-economic developments …
24
Energy transition
§ Growth of renewables
§ Electrification of our energy system (next slide)
Source: Eurostat
Super computers that fit in the palm
of your hand
Social media, social trends Socially connected everywhere, anytime
Access to ‘the cloud’
Open data
DNV GL © 2014
Electrification of demand and supply
The role of electricity yesterday, today, tomorrow
25
DNV GL © 2014
… and other developments changing the energy landscape locally
26
Big data management and cyber security threats
Need to become resilient, e.g. for extreme climate events
Rise of self-supporting communities
Converging infrastructures: gas, electricity, heat/cold
Increasing role of IT leads to smarter grids
‘New’ entrants applying novel business models
DNV GL © 2014
DNV GL’s Technology Outlook 2025 –10 Technology trends creating a new power reality
27
DNV GL © 201428
(€)
Solar PV, 70 GW installed yet
DNV GL © 201429
Application range for alternative energy storage technologies
Dis
char
ge t
ime
at r
ated
pow
er
Electricity storage – a wide variety of applications, e.g. for EVs
DNV GL © 2014
Digitalisation of electricity grids
! 𝐵𝐴(𝑣)
. 𝑑𝐴 = 0
Grids become hybrid and more complex
30
DNV GL © 2014
Electrification will ease integration of (local) energy companies, housing industry, and automotive sector creating game changing business models
31
Transportation Local energy Smart devices
Smart home appliances, innovative
services, etc.
E.g. micro CHP’s: local heating and electricity
production
Electric vehicles will become mainstream
Green gas application
DNV GL © 2014
Technology developments ease access for (small) consumers, however also result in more complex energy systems
32
DNV GL © 2014
Projections show an increasing need for flexibility at multiple timescales
33
-‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Megaw
att
Hour
Residual load Netherlands -‐ 2030 (8 GW PV, 16 GW wind)
-‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Megaw
att
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Residual load Netherlands -‐ 2012 (0.7 GW PV, 2.5 GW wind)
Expected volatility at multiple timescales
-‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Megaw
att
Hour
Residual load Netherlands -‐ 2030 (8 GW PV, 16 GW wind)
-‐5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Megaw
att
Hour
Residual load Netherlands -‐ 2012 (0.7 GW PV, 2.5 GW wind)
DNV GL © 2014
E.g. Flexibility markets will be needed to reduce costs of imbalance
34
Relative size of required imbalance power relative to the share of renewables in a given control area (source: DNV GL Energy and Utrecht University, Netherlands).
DNV GL © 2014
We are about to make strategic choices
Development process in smart energy
Large ScaleImplementation
Strategic Choices
PlanningPreparationRegulationLarge Scale
DemonstrationService
DemonstrationFeasibilityDemonstrationR&D
Today
35
DNV GL © 2014
Digitization of energy systems –trends and some examples
36
DNV GL © 2014
Trend and example #1: Data analytics - Energy and the Internet of Things
§ Industrial internet is going to dwarf the human internet.
§ Size to ~10.000 IoT objects/person
– In 2020 already ~7 IoT objects/person (Cisco)
§ Identification through IPv6.
§ Data tsunami: for utilities e.g.:
– Smart meters
– Measurement data (RTU, PMU, PQ etc.)
– Analysis data (PFI, Oil analysis etc.)
– Flexible pricing data– Communication data
– Weather data
– PV, EV, Smart grid data (HEMS)
– Future: smart devices (fault records)
37
DNV GL © 2014
Energy Analytics will help us to use this data and predict the future
§ Diagnostic AnalyticsDetermine why something has happened, using content analytics and natural language processing to harvest insights found in documents, email, websites, social media and so on.
§ Descriptive Analytics (Visual Analytics)Know what is happening now by gaining a context-relevant view of your business through exploration-and-discovery and visualization-and-interaction capabilities. See historical trends and patterns related to your current business situation through dashboards and business intelligence reports.
§ Predictive analyticsAssess what could happen next, by using predictive models, data-and-text mining, statistical analysis. Discover patterns and trends from all types of data.
§ Prescriptive Analytics (Decision Support)Recommends one or more courses of action based on predictive modelling, localized rules, scoring and optimization techniques. Shows expected outcome of each. Enables decisions based on real-time data instead of on gut instinct.
§ Cognitive AnalyticsSystems that learn from every interaction and outcome in a naturally human-like way through the integration of all types of analytics to adapt your processes and engagements. Allows to find correlations, create hypotheses and learn from the outcomes.
38
Now
Past
Future
DNV GL © 2014
Answering questions based on Energy Data Analytics
Is the wind resource appropriate
to support financing this wind farm?
Is the cable operating as expected and can I predict when and where it will fail?
Where am I getting the most participation in my energy
efficiency program?
How is this customer using energy throughout the day?
39
How are my generation assets performing?
What is the status of each of my renewable assets and what
needs attention?
Where are the best locations in a region to place renewable
assets?
How does my retail energy offer compare with others in the
competitive market?
DNV GL © 2014
Digital Smart Substation design=communication infrastructure + IEDs + sensors
Integration of functions
Communication infrastructure is one of the key success factors in operation and maintenance of a DSS, and of future power system in general
40
Operation and control
IEDs and their integration play an important role in the DSS design
Asset management
Sensors and their integration play an important role in the DSS design
Sensors
DNV GL © 2014
Trend and example #2: Electric vehicles - with commodity prices declining; parties are eager to explore alternative earning models
41
§ B2B sees multiple pricing strategies; B2C products price kWh
§ Retail innovation goes beyond commodity pricing
§ Electric mobility opens a new window of opportunities
§ Collaboration between utility and automotive sector is essential
42
Utilities§ Want to become service and not remain solely commodity providers
§ Lock customers into long-‐term contracts
OEMs§ Want to sell more EVs & PHEVs to comply with ever stricter CO2fleet targets
§ Want to ensure a continuous participation in the EVs lifecycle revenue stream
Customers§ Search for a more holistic e mobility offering§ Shy away of the high TCOs and generally prefer to pay their share of the use instead of owning the assets
The EV will be at the Intersection of OEM, Utility and Customer
Electric vehicles as game changer for the utility business?
Customer
Alternative & Second Use
43
Technology -‐ Alternative Use
Connectivity and Battery Degradation are the Main Challenges to be overcome
§ For the utility to assume control of a sufficient large number of EV’s, V2H or V2G connectivity is key. Communicating via the smart connected car itself lowers the investment costs
§ In order to perform the uses cases, both discharging capability and access to the State of Charge information should be supported by the OEM.
§ Performing use cases for alternative use can put extra strain on the battery Portfolio optimization shows the biggest influence on battery degradation
§ Other use cases barely influence battery life§ By constantly matching market prices and a careful execution of the optimal charging and discharging the effect can be minimized
Connectivity
Battery Degradation
DNV GL © 2014
New collaboration leads to new business opportunities
???
Present infrastructure accommodates various ownership and/or control concepts
44
DNV GL © 2014
First examples of new business models have been launched
15 September 201645
Source: Jedlix
Source: Energeia
DNV GL © 2014
EV market just started, however growing so fast that it can contribute to the present primary and secondary control reserve
46
EVs will be able to serve the entire German demand by 2025
By that time stationary storage (2nd use of EV batteries) will begin to take over the market
DNV GL © 2014 15 September 201647
Trend and example #3: Universal Smart Energy Framework (USEF)
In search for a more sustainable energy system, many different pilots are initiated,
often focussing on very similar energy flexibility concepts.
While technology pushes the market forward at considerable speed, we risk
wasting time and money reinventing the wheel, or addressing incompatibility issues
later.
USEF delivers the market structure, the tools and the rules for energy flexibility trading. It provides a common standard for a unified smart energy market that is
easy to build on.
With existing detailed specifications and the first real-life pilots in the market, USEF is the most advanced initiative of its kind, enabling implementations to accelerate and scale rapidly and assuring product
connectebility.
-‐ 48
To create an effective market we should all play together by the same rules
Which may lead to e.g. different
aggregation models
Regulation differsMarket
characteristics differ Requirements of flex
products differ
One size does not fit all – yet harmonization is needed
USEF can be adapted to fit different scenarios and markets.
The framework is already being applied to smart energy demonstration projects, like EnergieKoplopers in Heerhugowaard.
New Smart Energy System
Capacity Management
PortfolioOptimization
System balancing Transmission System Operator
Balance Responsible Party
Distribution System Operator
Producers
Large Industry
Central Generation
Local demand and supply
TSO
Balancing Capacity
Commercial & Industrial
Residential
Aggregated
BRP
PortfolioOptimisation
GridManagement
DSO
Flexibility Suppliers
Flexibility Users
x x
USEF Role Model
Consumer Aggregator
FLEXIBILITY
Cooling Systems
Production Process
Emergency Generators
Heat Pump
Solar
Electric Vehicle
Airco System
How is value created from flexibility? – The Consumer perspective
The aggregatorA new role,unlocking flexibility
Consumer Aggregator
BRP
DSO
TSO
Flex forPortfoliooptimization
Flex For gridmanagement
Flex tomaintainbalance
UFLEX
Cooling Systems
Production Process
Emergency Generators
Heat Pump
Solar
Electric Vehicle
Airco System
How is value created from flexibility? – The Market perspective
FLEXIBILITY
USEF implemented
Live since 18 August 2015Households provides about 200 times 0.5 kW of controllable flex automatically
Balance Responsible Party
Flex for imbalance correction
Distribution System Operator
Flex to prevent
congestion
Aggregatorflex
flex
flex
Flex fees – no dynamic pricing
DNV GL © 2014
What should be on your R&D agenda?
57
DNV GL © 2014
R&D creates business for tomorrow
58
To-do list
§ Integrate ICT in energy technologies, and in new energy market designs
§ Think technology + economics + society + innovation policy + regulation + …
§ Join forces with industries and academia having other expertise than yours
Attitude
§ Open-minded, able to combine ideas and new technologies
§ Strong believe in your own vision, still willing to be a team player
§ Out-of-the-box? What box?
DNV GL © 2014
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
Thank you.
59
Frits Verheij, Director Smart Green [email protected]+31 26 356 2445
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