ICT Trends Article February 2015: [Great] Expectations

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ICT Trends – 2015: (Great) Expectations

Job Vacancies

The NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) jobs online measures changes in

job vacancies advertised by businesses on the two main internet job boards; SEEK and

Trade Me Jobs. The Skilled Vacancies Index by industry group, trend series, measured an annual change (December 2013 to December 2014) for IT of 1.1 percent. The annual change for the same period, as recorded by the ICT Trend Series based on the Seek ICT job advertisements, is 6 percent.

Table 1 records the annual percentage change in selected ICT advertised job vacancies recorded for the December 2013 to December 2014 quarters.

4-digit ANZSCO

code

ANZSCO titles % change

2621 Database and Systems Administrators, and ICT Security Specialists 7%

2324 Graphic and Web Designers, and Illustrators 13%

3131 ICT Support Technicians 7%

2613 Software and Applications Programmers 13%

Table 1 Annual percentage change (Dec13-Dec14) in selected ICT advertised job vacancies

Hiring Intentions

The Hudson Report for Quarter 1, 2015, headlines Employer Hiring Confidence at Highest Level in 5

Years. Key findings include:

A net 28.1 percent of employers intend to increase permanent staff numbers in the first

quarter of 2015, up four percentage points (pp) compared to the previous quarter

The results are largely driven by rising expectations in the Upper North Island where employer

sentiment has steadily increased over the past 12 months, up 7.9pp since the beginning of the

year

A greater use of a temporary and contract workforce as talent shortages start to bite resulting

in pressure on salary and wages

In terms of permanent hiring expectations ICT continues to perform well with a net 28.8 per cent of

employers intending to increase permanent staff numbers. A net 20.5% of hiring managers plan to

increase the contracting headcount in their ICT teams. Contract roles in demand, requiring specialist

skills, include business analysts, project managers, software developers and architects.

Education

A recent NZ Herald article contains the headline ‘ICT qualification essential for all school leavers’. Concerns about students leaving secondary school with a lack of ICT qualifications have been supported by the results from a survey of 61,000 secondary school students that found that less than 6 per cent had a qualification in basic ICT.

According to Auckland Business Leaders Group chairman Michael Barnett ICT skills are (now) part of every kind of job; from office and retailing to factory work. Confident, critical and creative use of ICT skills is now [as much] an essential passport for getting a job as reading, writing and arithmetic. Whether heading direct into employment or on to tertiary education, all school leavers should have an ICT qualification and Barnett foresees the day when universities will require ICT competency as a condition of entry.

Tertiary ICT Enrolment Trends

Figure 1 has been updated from the MoE Education Counts website to include the EFTS (equivalent full time students) enrolment and completions data for 2013. Total diploma enrolments, levels 5 to

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7, are trending down, having dropped by almost 10 percent from 2009 to 2013. International enrolments have declined almost 22 percent over the same period.

Completions for 2013 are down 17 percent on the 2012 total of 2870.

Fig.1 Diploma ICT Enrolments (EFTS) & Completions 2005 – 2013

Figure 2 illustrates an increase in ICT bachelor EFTS enrolments for 2013 of 5 percent on the 2012 total of 6260 while completions are up 7 percent for the same period.

Total EFTS enrolments for 2013 have increased by almost 36 percent since the 2008 trough of 4830 enrolments (EFTS). Completions are up by 43 percent for the same period.

Fig.2 Bachelor ICT Enrolments (EFTS) & Completions 2005 - 2013

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Job Adverts

Figure 1 indicates the number of Seek ICT Job adverts for February at 2151. This is down on the February 2014 total by 7.6 percent following an increase of 7.9 percent for January (1758) on the January 2014 figure of 1630.

Fig.1 Seek ICT Job Adverts Monthly Trends 2010 – 2015 (February)

The number of Trademe IT job adverts for February is down 9.4 percent on the same time last year (Fig.2).

Fig.2 Seek ICT & Trademe IT Job Advert Trends to February 2015

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Figure 3 illustrates the usual upward trend in Seek ICT job adverts for this time of the year although the job adverts for Auckland and Wellington are down on February 2014 by 8.6 percent and 12 percent respectively. Canterbury has bucked the trend, up 2.5 percent.

Fig.3 Seek ICT Job Advert Trends Monthly Change for Jan - Feb 2015

Figure 4 provides a detailed record of the Seek ICT job advert trends by region for the year to date.

Fig.4 Seek ICT Job Advert Monthly Trends to February 2015

Conclusion

The upward trend in Seek ICT job adverts is following the usual trend for this time of the year in spite of job adverts for Auckland and Wellington being down on the February 2014 figures.

Domestic and international ICT diploma EFTS enrolments are trending down while ICT degree enrolments and completions are steadily increasing. The overall numbers of NZ tertiary ICT

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graduates, however, is unlikely to satisfy the increasing demand for qualified and/or experienced ICT personnel any time soon.

NZ employers will have to continue to rely on attracting suitably qualified/experienced recruits from overseas by using, for example, Immigration NZ’s LTSSL (Long Term Skills Shortage List) to help address the shortfall in specified ANZSCO (Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations) ICT vocations. This will pitch them in direct competition with their Australian counterparts.

Research by specialist IT recruiter, Greythorn Australia has revealed a shortage of skills in certain key areas within IT that are experiencing rapid growth, which is outstripping the market supply; i.e. IT Sales and Business Development, Digital, Big Data and Cloud. One of the solutions is to hire international candidates and NZ is among the top source countries that includes the UK, India, and Asia.

As Greythorn states; ‘In 2015 IT leaders will need to be prepared to spend time on training both new

and existing staff in order to foster the skills necessary to deliver key business projects.’

News Bytes: A to Z

Australia – ITWire: Shortage of ‘right skills’ in IT to meet rising demand

41% of CIO’s believe skills shortages will have a direct impact on their business this year.

Australia – ITWire: IBM’s massive job cuts start - 400 in Australia to go

At more than 100,000 people, it is projected to be the largest mass layoff by any US corporation in at least 20 years.

UK (Ireland) – Telecompaper: Irish government wants 60% increase in ICT graduates

Ireland has attracted and kept some of the largest and most successful internet service companies in the world such as Google, Facebook, LinkedIn and many more.

NZ – Computerworld: 2014... "the year NZ business needed" as ICT hiring rises

The top 3 contract roles in demand in ICT include business analysts, project coordinators and those roles related to project infrastructure – system engineers, system administrators and technical analysts.

NZ – MBIE: Jobs Online monthly report – December 2014 (Published January 2015)

Over the year, skilled job vacancies increased in all of the occupation groups with IT up 1.1%.

NZ – NZ Herald Education Section: ICT qualification 'essential' for all school leavers

Less than 6% of 61,000 secondary school students surveyed have a basic ICT qualification.

NZ – Stuff.co.nz: Teaching tech to the teachers

It is about a philosophy of learning, and having kids who problem-find and can then problem-solve.

UK – Computing: UK big data jobs scarcer than other IT roles but command highest salaries

The report focuses on five key technology disciplines in which there is a shortage of skilled IT professionals across the country: IT security, cloud, mobile, big data and web development.

USA – Computerworld: Black Girls Code founder looks to expand skills outreach

Kimberly Bryant founded Black Girls Code In 2011. Since then, the chapter-based non-profit has taught programming to more than 3,000 young women across the country.

USA – Computerworld: IT jobs market booming in the Southwest

By 2017 at least 9,000 new technology jobs are expected to be available in the Austin area (otherwise known as "Silicon Hills")

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USA – Computerworld: Women and the future of IT

The U.S. Department of Labour projects that by 2020; there will be 1.4 million computer specialist job openings.