ICT - Shabtai Shavit - September 2003. Trends, scenarios and future threat. Shabtai Shavit, Chairman of ICT. Defeating International Terrorism.

ICT - Shabtai Shavit - September 2003

..Trends, scenarios and future threat.Trends, scenarios and future threat.

Shabtai Shavit, Chairman of ICT.Shabtai Shavit, Chairman of ICT.

Defeating International Terrorism


I.I. Classic terrorism vs. current terrorism.Classic terrorism vs. current terrorism.

II.II. Potential threat latent in current terrorism.Potential threat latent in current terrorism.

III.III. Fighting terrorism – Strategy.Fighting terrorism – Strategy.

IV.IV. Fighting terrorism – Operational-tactical.Fighting terrorism – Operational-tactical.

V.V. Fighting terrorism – Ideology.Fighting terrorism – Ideology.

VI.VI. International Organization dedicated to the International Organization dedicated to the fight against terrorism.fight against terrorism.

VII.VII. Summary.Summary.

List of Contents


1970s’:1970s’: Watershed line between classic terrorism Watershed line between classic terrorism and current terrorism.and current terrorism.

Classic terrorism:Classic terrorism:

•Local.Local.

•Secular.Secular.

•National – aspiration for self-National – aspiration for self-determination.determination.

•Solidarity amongst secular organizations.Solidarity amongst secular organizations.

•Socialist / Marxist.Socialist / Marxist.

•Weak local message.Weak local message.

Current terrorism:Current terrorism:

•Global.Global.

•Religious – radical.Religious – radical.

•Imperialist – aspiration for a Imperialist – aspiration for a Theocratic - Muslim world.Theocratic - Muslim world.

•SolidaritySolidarity based on religion.based on religion.

•Muslim / Theological.Muslim / Theological.

•Strong global message in real-time.Strong global message in real-time.

I. Classic vs. current terrorism


II. Potential threat

• No coexistence: Holy war (Jihad), No coexistence: Holy war (Jihad), war of shock and awe.war of shock and awe.

• No need for provocation by No need for provocation by heretics.heretics.

a. Divine a. Divine commandcommand

• Suicide for the sake of Islam is a Suicide for the sake of Islam is a commandment; The suicide commandment; The suicide becomes a martyr (Sha’hid), his becomes a martyr (Sha’hid), his family earns the respect of the family earns the respect of the community.community.

b. Willingness to b. Willingness to commit commit suicidesuicide


II. Potential threat continued…

• The end justifies the means.The end justifies the means.

• Fewer suicides could kill more Fewer suicides could kill more heretics.heretics.

c. Weapons of c. Weapons of mass mass destructiondestruction

• Amorphous organization; no Amorphous organization; no headquarters, no hierarchy, fluid tactics.headquarters, no hierarchy, fluid tactics.

d. Virtual d. Virtual deploymentdeployment

• Worldwide free press coverage Worldwide free press coverage in real-time.in real-time.

e. The messagee. The message


III. Fighting terrorism–strategy.

1. Right to self-defense justifies a pre-emptive strike.

2.2. Right to self-defense justifies the use of Right to self-defense justifies the use of targeted killing.targeted killing.

3.3. Heads of states that support terrorism are Heads of states that support terrorism are legitimate targets.legitimate targets.

International legitimacy to the following actionsInternational legitimacy to the following actions::


III. Fighting terrorism–strategy Continued…

4.4. Heads of terrorist organizations are legitimate Heads of terrorist organizations are legitimate targets, including religious, political and targets, including religious, political and military leaders.military leaders.

5.5. Transfer of war to the territory of a state that Transfer of war to the territory of a state that supports terrorism, is legitimate.supports terrorism, is legitimate.


IV. Fighting terrorism – operational-tactical.

1.1. Enhancement of means of intelligence gathering Enhancement of means of intelligence gathering for all weather condition, day or night, through for all weather condition, day or night, through hideouts, from undergrounds etc.hideouts, from undergrounds etc.

2.2. Improvement of sensors based gathering tools, Improvement of sensors based gathering tools, for the collection of samples and materials found for the collection of samples and materials found in air.in air.

3.3. Development of sophisticated search engines with Development of sophisticated search engines with which one can identify funds related to terrorist which one can identify funds related to terrorist groups and their flow.groups and their flow.

Consequential to the international and embracing Consequential to the international and embracing nature of terrorism, one must internalize insights and nature of terrorism, one must internalize insights and translate them into tools.translate them into tools.


IV. Fighting terrorism – operational-tactical continued…

4.4. Enhancement of intelligence cooperation systems Enhancement of intelligence cooperation systems among states and amongst friendly intelligence among states and amongst friendly intelligence agencies, to a level of cooperation in real timeagencies, to a level of cooperation in real time..

5.5. Development of operational cooperation amongst Development of operational cooperation amongst friendly intelligence agencies, despite of the friendly intelligence agencies, despite of the reasonable reservations of exposing their tools reasonable reservations of exposing their tools and methodsand methods..


IV. Fighting terrorism – operational-tactical continued…

6.6. In order to focus the efforts towards the heads of In order to focus the efforts towards the heads of terrorist organizations, one should maximize the terrorist organizations, one should maximize the utilization of real time intelligence, and targets utilization of real time intelligence, and targets acquisition and precision weapons.acquisition and precision weapons.

7.7. In order to maximize intelligence, there should be In order to maximize intelligence, there should be cooperation amongst intelligence agencies in the cooperation amongst intelligence agencies in the Humint arena, which combines the relative Humint arena, which combines the relative advantages of each organization.advantages of each organization.


V. Fighting terrorism – ideology.

1. Culture based cooperation:1. Culture based cooperation:The leaders of international terrorism are in a minority amongst The leaders of international terrorism are in a minority amongst

the 1.3 milliard Muslims in the world. The West must create the 1.3 milliard Muslims in the world. The West must create a dialogue with the moderate Islamic leaders and convince a dialogue with the moderate Islamic leaders and convince them in:them in:

• Acting against radical Islam and its terrorist envoys.Acting against radical Islam and its terrorist envoys.• There is no expectancy in terrorism, just the continuation of There is no expectancy in terrorism, just the continuation of

decline of Islam.decline of Islam.• It is better to reach coexistence and a modus operandi with It is better to reach coexistence and a modus operandi with

the Western World, which will facilitate the development and the Western World, which will facilitate the development and flourishing of both cultures.flourishing of both cultures.

Several conditions, which currently seem utopian, must coexist:Several conditions, which currently seem utopian, must coexist:


V. Fighting terrorism – ideology –

Continued.

2. Economic based cooperation:2. Economic based cooperation:The fact that since the end of 1st World War, the Islam is in a The fact that since the end of 1st World War, the Islam is in a

process of political, economic, cultural and scientific process of political, economic, cultural and scientific decline, introduces additional elements to the conflict.decline, introduces additional elements to the conflict.

• Many members of the Islamic world suffer from hunger, Many members of the Islamic world suffer from hunger, poverty and despair. Those elements feed and breed poverty and despair. Those elements feed and breed terrorism.terrorism.

• A content population, even under occupation, would prefer A content population, even under occupation, would prefer negotiation for national autonomy over armed struggle.negotiation for national autonomy over armed struggle.

• Consequentially, the primary step is to aid those under Consequentially, the primary step is to aid those under developed economies, even prior to the attempt to educate developed economies, even prior to the attempt to educate the Islamic people to democracy.the Islamic people to democracy.

• Market place economies would serve as a catalyst in the Market place economies would serve as a catalyst in the future, also to the process of democratization.future, also to the process of democratization.


IV. International Organization.

1.1. The UN is a natural home for such an organization. The UN is a natural home for such an organization. For obvious reasons it is reluctant to execute this For obvious reasons it is reluctant to execute this role.role.

2.2. If a comprehensive international consensus cannot If a comprehensive international consensus cannot be achieved, it is suggested to commence with the be achieved, it is suggested to commence with the “league of states that fight terrorism”, to which “league of states that fight terrorism”, to which additional states would join-in in the future.additional states would join-in in the future.

3.3. An international definition for terrorism would be An international definition for terrorism would be achieved. Suggestion: terrorism is the use of violence achieved. Suggestion: terrorism is the use of violence against civilians with the aim of promoting political against civilians with the aim of promoting political objectives.objectives.

Terrorism cannot exist without territory; thus the Terrorism cannot exist without territory; thus the action taken must be against states that support action taken must be against states that support

terrorism.terrorism.


IV. International Organization-continued

4.4. The source of authority would be an agreed The source of authority would be an agreed convention, agreed upon by the founders.convention, agreed upon by the founders.

5.5. There would be experts originating from different There would be experts originating from different countries, who will investigate the involvement of countries, who will investigate the involvement of states and organizations in terrorism.states and organizations in terrorism.

6.6. An involvement scale would be defined, by type An involvement scale would be defined, by type and level of gravity.and level of gravity.

7.7. On-going update of the states that are involved On-going update of the states that are involved with terrorism will be published, by the type of with terrorism will be published, by the type of involvement and its gravity.involvement and its gravity.



8.8. The need and the duty to punish states for their The need and the duty to punish states for their involvement with terrorism will be acknowledged.involvement with terrorism will be acknowledged.

9.9. States that are involved with terrorism will be States that are involved with terrorism will be penalized, based upon a fixed scale which will be penalized, based upon a fixed scale which will be defined.defined.

10.10. The scale will match the different types of The scale will match the different types of involvement, in order to shift the balance of involvement, in order to shift the balance of interests of those states, and convince them that interests of those states, and convince them that supporting terrorism is not worthwhile.supporting terrorism is not worthwhile.



11.11. There would be a secondary embargo with There would be a secondary embargo with states and companies which sustain states and companies which sustain connections (in the open / secretive, connections (in the open / secretive, economic or others) with states which are economic or others) with states which are embargoed for their involvement with embargoed for their involvement with terrorism.terrorism.

12.12. A Permanent international mechanism for A Permanent international mechanism for the fight against terrorism will be the fight against terrorism will be established. Amongst others, its goals established. Amongst others, its goals would be to scrutinize punishment of would be to scrutinize punishment of states that are involved with terrorism, and states that are involved with terrorism, and to deter any deviation.to deter any deviation.


The late Hayim Herzog said:

“It is unrealistic to expect any positive development to be initiated by the UN regarding terrorism,as in regards to many other issues. The only hope is that such development would be initiated by the free states, led by the USA, that would bind themselves, outside the scope of the UN, by a convention against terrorism, that would enable international sanctions.”

VII. Summary.


The late Prime-Minister Yizhak Rabin referred toThe late Prime-Minister Yizhak Rabin referred tothis issue saying:this issue saying:

““The answer to the International terrorism, must The answer to the International terrorism, must be international. States must find ways to cooperatebe international. States must find ways to cooperateagainst the nets of terrorism… I suggest that this institute ofagainst the nets of terrorism… I suggest that this institute ofcooperation would be institutionalized, and concrete. States thatcooperation would be institutionalized, and concrete. States thatchoose to coordinate their actions against the internationalchoose to coordinate their actions against the internationalterrorism, must establish an international organization dedicatedterrorism, must establish an international organization dedicatedfor this purpose. It is obvious that such an organization cannotfor this purpose. It is obvious that such an organization cannotbe part of the UN. It could only be established if the USA, thebe part of the UN. It could only be established if the USA, thestrongest state in the free world, would take initiation and wouldstrongest state in the free world, would take initiation and wouldcall for its establishment.”call for its establishment.”

VII. Summary – continued.


“… “… the role of the organization is to coordinatethe role of the organization is to coordinatefour functions: the first is gathering intelligencefour functions: the first is gathering intelligenceand counter-intelligence, the second is the and counter-intelligence, the second is the protection of facilities and transportation routes...protection of facilities and transportation routes...third, military action in the case of emergency…third, military action in the case of emergency…fourth, and most difficult, action against States that intervene fourth, and most difficult, action against States that intervene and encourage terrorism. It must be clarified to statesand encourage terrorism. It must be clarified to statesthat initiate terrorism, that they would be obliged to facethat initiate terrorism, that they would be obliged to facea united and organized front of states, with an organization,a united and organized front of states, with an organization,that is ready to take actions, when the attacked state isthat is ready to take actions, when the attacked state isunable to take action alone. Such an organization is unable to take action alone. Such an organization is important for the sake of deterrence, and it is reasonable important for the sake of deterrence, and it is reasonable to believe that it would serve as an effective tool for sanctionsto believe that it would serve as an effective tool for sanctionsand punishment.”and punishment.”


ICT - Shabtai Shavit - September 2003. Trends, scenarios and future threat. Shabtai Shavit, Chairman of ICT. Defeating International Terrorism.

Documents

classic terrorism

current terrorism slide

international terrorism

support terrorism

nature of terrorism

ict shabtai shavit

fighting terrorism ideology

fighting terrorism strategy