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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 1
Corporate Ratings Rohit Inamdar +91 124 4545 847
[email protected] Pratik Singhania +91 124 4545 801
[email protected] Anil Gupta +91 124 4545314
[email protected] Amit Arora +91 124 4545 318
[email protected]
ICRA RESEARCH SERVICES
ICRA RATING FEATURE
Indian Spinning Industry
Ability to mantain capacity utilization and contribtion margin
to be a challenge for the
spinning industry amid declining yarn exports
October 2014
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 2
A. Global Cotton Scenario Cotton production expected to remain
higher than consumption in CY 2014/15, increasing the global stock
levels to all time high...7 World cotton balance sheet World cotton
stock to use ratio vs. Cotlook A Index China cotton balance sheet
World less China cotton balance sheet
B. Trend in International Cotton Prices - Expected increase in
global cotton availability has resulted in sharp decline in
international cotton prices..9 C. Domestic Cotton Scenario Domestic
cotton stock position to improve in CY 2014/15 due to decline in
exports ....10
Indias cotton balance sheet and estimate for CY 2014/15
India's yearly cotton and cotton equivalent yarn export
Indias monthly cotton consumption and export
D. Outlook on International Cotton Prices- Cotton prices to
soften further due to increase in global availability of cotton in
CY 2014/15....11 Cotton prices in India and China vs Cotlook A
index
E. Outlook on Domestic Cotton Prices- Domestic prices also
expected to decline to align with international prices.12
Trend in India's cotton prices
Cotton stock with mills and equivalent days of consumption
F. Domestic Yarn Scenario: Capacity utilization of the industry
to remain under pressure in FY 2014-15 due to expected decline in
demand from China...13 Monthly yarn production, capacity
utilization and inventory levels
Monthly yarn exports
Spread between cotton and PSF prices and share of cotton yarn
production in total spun yarn production
G. Outlook on Margins: While the profitability margins were
stable in Q1 FY 2014-15, they are expected to moderate going
forward....15 Cotton yarn prices in India, China and Pakistan
Cotton yarn spread in India, China and Pakistan
Trend in India's contribution margin in rupee and USD terms
H. Outlook on Indian spinning industry: Stable to Negative for
FY 2014-15 ....17 I. Financial performance of listed Indian
spinners and outlook for FY 2014-15.....18 Annexure 1: Rating
Distribution - ICRA rated Entities Upgrades in 5M FY 2014-15
continue to outpace the downgrades ...19 Annexure 2: RR-TUFS:
Investment in standalone spinning projects remain subdued ...
20
Index
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 3
Company Section....21 Ambika Cotton Mills Limited.......22
Bannari Amman Spinning Mills Limited..23 Banswara Syntex
Limited..24 Damodar Industries Limited...25 Deepak Spinners Limited
.26 Ginni Filaments Limited..27 GTN Industries Limited28 K.P.R.
Mill Limited.29 Maharaja Shree Umaid Mills Limited...30 Maral
Overseas Limited..31 Nahar Industrial Enterprises Limited.32 Nahar
Spinning Mills Limited..33 Nitin Spinners Limited....34 Precot
Meridian Limited.35 Rajapalayam Mills Limited...36 RSWM
Limited........37 Supreme Tex Mart Limited .38 Super Spinning Mills
Limited..39 Sutlej Textiles And Industries Limited .40 Trident
Limited.41 TT Limited....42 Vardhman Polytex Limited .43 Vardhman
Textiles Limited .44 Winsome Textiles Industries Limited.45 Winsome
Yarns Limited..46
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 4
Summary Highlights and Outlook COTTON STOCK POSITION
As global cotton supply outpaces demand, addition to stocks
expected to continue for fifth consecutive year leading to all time
high stocks at the end of CY1 2014/15; India to emerge as
the worlds largest cotton producer
The global cotton production in CY 2014/15 is expected to remain
flat despite a decline in Chinas cotton production as the decline
is expected to be offset by an expected increase in
the cotton production in USA. The total cotton production is
expected at ~151.1 million bales in CY 2014/15 as against 152.2
million bales in CY2013/14
With expected decline in Chinas cotton production, India is
expected to emerge as the largest producer of the cotton in the
world with ~25% share in worlds cotton production
The consumption will continue to be driven by China and India
and is expected to increase by 3.8% to reach 143.6 million bales;
however the consumption would still continue to be
lower than the production which would increase the global stock
levels for the fifth consecutive year and reach all time high by
end of CY 2014/15, which will be equivalent to ~95% of
annual consumption
Cotton consumption in China to increase due to availability of
cotton at market rates from CY 2014/15 which would also limit the
imports; imports will only be to meet the shortfall in
production vis--vis consumption
The shift towards the direct subsidy policy from CY 2014/152
would make the domestic cotton available to mills in China at
market rates which would increase the cotton consumption
in China which had been declining over the last four years
As the production is expected to continue to remain lower than
consumption for CY 2014/15, China would continue to import cotton,
though it would be limited to meet only the
shortfall vis--vis consumption. However, if the cotton reserves
are liquidated by China, the need for cotton imports would be
obviated
Due to limited imports, increase in the cotton stock at the end
of the CY 2014/15 is expected to be modest unlike that in the past
three years
Decline in cotton imports by China to reduce the exports from
India, which would significantly increase the cotton stock position
in India compared to the previous years
Due to reduction in demand from China, the raw cotton exports
from India are expected to reduce significantly in CY3 2014/15
The cotton production in India in CY 2014/15 is expected to
decline modestly due to the late onset of monsoons which is
expected to reduce the crop yield, though the decline would
be limited due to higher acreage compared to last year
The domestic consumption of cotton during CY 2014/15 is expected
to remain similar to CY 2013/14 as we expect the yarn production
levels are unlikely to increase despite growth in
domestic demand as yarn exports are expected to decline. Stable
cotton production levels, decline in cotton exports and limited
drivers for increase in cotton consumption would
significantly increase the stock position in India compared to
that witnessed over the last five cotton seasons, thereby improving
raw material availability for the mills
1 Refers to International Cotton Year, which commences from
August and ends in July 2 Prior to CY2014/15, Chinese government
was procuring cotton directly from farmers at fixed support prices,
leading to accumulation of stock with Chinese Government
3 Refers to Indian Cotton Year, which commences from October and
ends in September
INDIAN SPINNING INDUSTRY
October 2014
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 5
OUTLOOK ON COTTON PRICES
International cotton prices have declined since announcement by
China to terminate its three year old cotton stocking policy and
are expected to remain soft on account of increase in
global cotton availability in CY 2014/15
As ICRA Research had noted in this previous note, due to changes
in Chinas cotton policy, the international cotton prices have
declined since April 2014 after China announced to
terminate its three year old cotton stocking policy. The policy
changes would increase Chinas own cotton consumption and reduce the
import demand
As the demand from China had resulted in low global stock levels
outside China, the global cotton prices remained firm over the last
three cotton seasons; however reduction in import
demand from China would increase the global cotton stock levels
outside China, thereby putting pressure on international cotton
prices
The international cotton prices have already declined by ~24%
till August 2014 from that in March 2014 and the December future
prices are prevailing further lower by ~9% from
current levels. With the arrival of new crop from October 2014
onwards, the international cotton prices are expected to decline
further and may align with the prevailing futures price
The international cotton prices continue to remain sensitive to
further changes in Chinas policy, i.e. on release of its cotton
reserves, as it would influence the import requirement of
China and thereby the global stock levels outside China and also
the prices
Domestic prices are also expected to decline in CY 2014/15 and
align with the international prices
Though the international cotton prices had declined since April
2014, the domestic cotton prices had remained firm and had in fact
increased till May 2014 on account of tight
domestic stock position due to high levels of cotton and cotton
equivalent yarn export in CY 2013/14
While approaching to the new cotton season, revival of monsoons
from late July/August 2014 and cautious approach being adopted by
players in the textile value chain, the domestic
prices had also been declining since June 2014
With the arrival of new crop, the domestic prices are expected
to decline further as it converges with the international cotton
prices, given the limited trade restrictions on cotton
import/export and also due to the expectation of increase in the
domestic cotton stock levels at the end of CY 2014/15
Domestic cotton prices were already below the Minimum Support
Price (MSP) in August 2014 and with expectation of further decline
in the prices, the possibility of significant MSP
operations by the government during the CY 2014/15 is fairly
high
DOMESTIC YARN SCENARIO
Capacity utilization of the Indian spinning industry is likely
to remain under pressure in FY 2014-15 due to expected reduced
export demand
The domestic cotton yarn production remained steady in Q1 FY
2014-15 with production increasing by 4.5% over the same period
last year
Increase in yarn production and thereby of the capacity
utilization of the Indian spinning industry over the last two years
was driven by export demand led by China
Due to expected decline in the demand from China, the demand for
Indian yarn is likely to decline and may pose pressure on capacity
utilization levels which may result in decline in
yarn production during the year unless supported by increase in
domestic demand
With reduced export demand and steady growth in the production,
the domestic inventory levels for cotton yarn had increased in Q1
FY 2014-15
Margins were stable in Q1 FY 2014-15 compared to that in Q4 FY
2013-14; however expected to decline in Q2 FY 2014-15; subsequently
the profitability to remain under pressure due to
expected decline in capacity utilization levels
The average export price of yarn for Indian spinners during 5M
FY 2014-15 had been lower by ~5.8% compared to the same period last
year in USD terms; however due to rupee
depreciation, the domestic yarn prices in rupee terms had been
at similar levels
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 6
The yarn prices have however started declining from August 2014
in rupee as well as USD terms on account of decline in cotton
prices and with the expectation of lower cotton prices
in CY 2014/15 and are expected to decline further from the
current levels
The contribution margin for the Indian spinners during 5M FY
2014-15 remains lower compared to that over the corresponding
period last year due to limited increase in yarn prices
and higher cotton prices during CY 2013-14. The average
contribution margin for yarn export during this period was ~USD
1.37/Kg which is lower by ~11.2% over the previous
corresponding period; while the spread for domestic sales was
~Rs. 82/Kg, which was lower by ~4.4%
The EBDITA margin in Q1 FY 2014-15 had been similar to that in
Q4 FY 2013-14 at ~15% as the yarn prices were flat during this
period and the cotton procurement cost for the mills
remained at similar levels as that in Q4 FY 2013-14
The EBDITA margins of the Indian spinners is however likely to
moderate in Q2 FY 2014-15 to ~12% as the yarn prices have declined
from August 2014; the extent of impact on
profitability will depend on the quantum of cotton stock and
carrying cost held by the mill
Subsequently, from Q3 FY 2014-15 onwards, while the decline in
cotton prices is expected to be beneficial for the industry,
however reduced export demand will pose pressure on the
capacity utilization levels of the Indian spinners. With
expected pressures on capacity utilization, the contribution
margins for the mills are also expected to come under pressure,
which
would result in downward pressure on the profitability in H2 FY
2014-15
OUTLOOOK ON THE INDIAN SPINNING INDUSTRY
Outlook on the Indian spinning industry is stable with possible
downside risk on account of expected reduction in export demand for
yarn; Indian spinners to however benefit from lower
cotton cost which shall reduce their funding requirements
The outlook on the Indian cotton spinning industry is stable
with possible downside risk on account of risk emanating from
changes in Chinas cotton policy for CY 2014/15
The yarn export from India which had increased to ~33% of the
total production in FY 2013-14 due to strong demand from China, is
expected to be impacted in FY 2014-15. As a result,
the ability of industry to maintain high capacity utilization as
well as contribution levels in a declining demand scenario would be
a challenge
However, on the positive side, the decline in the domestic
cotton prices in CY 2014/15 will reduce the input cost for the
industry as well as inventory funding requirements apart from
possible improvement in domestic demand for cotton yarn on
account of increased competitiveness as compared to synthetic
fibers
Moreover, given the uncertainty on the Chinas policy on
liquidation of its huge cotton stock and expectations of sufficient
availability of cotton in upcoming season, the mills are
expected to be cautious while stocking cotton during CY 2014/15
to avoid any inventory loss.
Import duty on cotton and cotton yarn in China to remain a key
determinant of cotton yarn exports from India
While the cotton consumption in China is likely to increase in
CY 2014/15, given its sizeable requirement of cotton yarn, it would
continue to meet its requirement either through
cotton and/or cotton yarn imports
If the state reserve of cotton stock is not liquidated,
continued duty free import of yarn and/or sustained import duty on
cotton imports will be key determinants for ensuring that the
demand for yarn is met through import of yarn, rather than
import of cotton
Reduced import duty on cotton and/or levy of import duty on
yarn, can partially shift the Chinese demand to cotton from cotton
yarn as was the case prior to CY 2011/12
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 7
Global Cotton Scenario Global cotton stock levels expected to
reach all time high at the end of CY 2014/15, higher than the
initial estimate, though the increase in stock levels would be the
lowest compared to that witnessed over the last three years
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, ICAC, USDA The above
data refers to International cotton year which commence from August
and ends in July
The global closing cotton stock level for the cotton year ending
July 2014 (CY 2013/14) is expected to be higher by ~2% compared
to
the previous estimate and reach all time high of ~128.5 million
bales which would be equivalent to stock to consumption ratio of
93%
at the end of CY 2013/14 compared to the previous estimate of
~89%. The revision in the global closing stock level for CY 2013/14
is
on account of increase in the production estimate, mainly of
India, and decrease in global cotton consumption, mainly in China.
For
the CY 2014/15, the global closing cotton stock level is
expected to increase for the fifth consecutive year, similar to
what was
estimated earlier. While the production is expected to decline
by ~0.6% and consumption to increase by ~3.8% in CY 2014/15,
the
production would still remain higher than consumption, which
would result in increase in global cotton stock levels, whereby
the
closing stock is expected to reach all time high of ~136.1
million bales by the end of CY 2014/15.
However, the built up in global cotton stock levels had been
reducing over the last three years due to decline in cotton
production and
increase in consumption; and the increase in the stock levels in
CY 2014/15 would be the lowest compared to that witnessed over
the
past three years. While the decline in cotton production in CY
2014/15 is expected to be driven by top two cotton producing
countries, China and India; the extent of decline will be
partially offset by the expected increase in cotton production in
the third
largest producer, USA, which would keep the decline in total
cotton production modest at ~0.6% to ~151.1 million bales. The
cotton
production estimate for CY 2014/15 is however higher by ~2% from
the previous estimate on account of expected increase in
production in India due to revival of the monsoons from late
July/August 2014 and also increase in production in USA which is
due to
increase in acreage and improved weather conditions. The
increase in the global cotton consumption in CY 2014/15 is expected
to be
driven by top two consuming countries, China and India, and is
expected to reach 143.6 million bales, which is in line with the
earlier
estimate.
The decline in cotton production in China is expected on account
of decline in acreage in regions other than Xinjiang (Xinjiang
region
accounts for ~50~55% of total cotton production in China) as
there was no clarity on the implementation of the direct subsidy
policy
in other regions. In April 2014, China had terminated its three
year old cotton stocking policy under which it was purchasing
cotton at
fixed support price from the farmers and would shift to direct
subsidy based policy from CY 2014/15 under which the farmers
would
sell cotton at the market price and in case the market price is
lower than the government set target price, the difference
(subsidy)
would be paid directly to the farmers.
China has set the target prices of Yuan 19,800/ton for CY
2014/15 which is lower than the support price of Yuan 20,400/ton
for CY
2013/14 and CY 2012/13 under the cotton stocking policy, though
it is equal to the support price for CY 2011/12. As the direct
subsidy
policy is to be initially implemented only in Xinjiang region,
uncertainty on the market price and whether the direct subsidy
policy
would be extended to other regions as well are the key reasons
for expected decline in the cotton production in China in CY
2014/15.
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 8
World Cotton Balance Sheet Million bales of 170 Kgs Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-14E Jul-15E Jul-15E
Estimate as on Sep-14 May-14 % Change Sep-14 May-14
Opening stock 79.5 60.3 64.5 94.1 115.0 115.3 0% 128.5 125.4
Production 131.7 150.0 162.1 157.4 152.0 150.0 1% 151.1 147.9
Trade: (Import/Export) 45.5 45.5 58.8 59.8 51.7 51.7 0% 45.1 46.6
Consumption 152.3 146.9 132.0 136.4 138.3 140.1 -1% 143.6 143.2
Closing Stock 60.3 64.5 94.1 115.0 128.5 125.4 2% 136.1 130.3 Stock
to use ratio 40% 44% 71% 84% 93% 89% 95% 91% Sources: ICRA
Estimates, Industry data, ICAC, USDA
China Cotton Balance Sheet Million bales of 170 Kgs Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14E Jul-14E Jul-15E Jul-15E
Estimate as on Sep-14 May-14 % Change Sep-14 May-14
Opening stock 27.4 18.2 13.6 39.8 64.5 64.5 0% 79.4 76.3
Production 41.0 39.1 43.5 44.8 41.0 41.0 0% 37.8 37.8 Trade:
(Import) 14.0 15.4 31.4 26.0 18.1 16.4 10% 10.2 10.9 Consumption
64.0 58.9 48.7 46.1 44.2 45.5 -3% 46.7 47.4 Closing Stock 18.2 13.6
39.8 64.5 79.4 76.3 4% 80.6 77.5 Stock to use ratio 28% 23% 82%
140% 180% 168% 172% 164% Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data,
ICAC, USDA
The cotton stock level in China is estimated to have increased
by ~4% at the end of CY 2013/14 from the initial estimate to ~79.4
million
bales on account of higher imports and decline in consumption.
As the shift towards the direct subsidy policy from CY 2014/15
would
make the domestic cotton available to mills in China at market
rates, it would increase the domestic consumption of cotton which
had
been declining over the past few years due to high domestic
cotton prices (higher than global prices) and high import duty on
cotton (peak
import duty of 40%), which had resulted in increased yarn
imports which had remained duty free. While production (~37.8
million bales) is
expected to remain lower than consumption (~46.7 million bales)
in CY 2014/15 as well, the cotton imports would be limited mostly
to
meet the shortfall in the domestic production vis--vis
consumption, which would keep the increase in cotton stock levels
modest unlike
that in the past when most of the domestic cotton was stocked
under the governments cotton stocking policy. As a result, cotton
stock
levels are expected to increase only modestly by ~1.5% to 80.6
million bales by end of CY 2014/15 which would be equivalent to
stock to
consumption ratio of 172% at the end of CY 2014/15 compared to
180% at the end of CY 2013/14. However, China would continue to
account for most of the global cotton stock at ~59% at the end
of CY 2014/15 compared to ~62% at the end of CY 2013/14.
Despite the increase in cotton consumption in China in CY
2014/15, given the sizeable requirement of cotton yarn, it would
continue to
meet a part of its requirement through import of cotton/cotton
yarn. Prior to implementation of the cotton stocking policy in CY
2011/12,
China had an annual cotton consumption of ~58~64 million bales.
As a result, with expected consumption of 46.7 million bale of
cotton in
CY 2014/15, the balance requirement of cotton/cotton yarn would
continue to be met through imports, the proportion of which may
however vary in CY 2014/15 compared to that in CY2013/14
depending on the import duty structure on cotton and cotton yarn.
However,
the above assumption of import of cotton and cotton yarn would
be contingent on the policy on liquidation of cotton stock by China
from
its reserves as release of cotton at import parity prices
(including import duty) would obviate the need to import any
cotton/cotton yarn in
CY 2014/15.
he
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, ICAC, USDA The above
data refers to International cotton year which commence from August
and ends in July
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 9
Trend in international cotton prices Expected increase in global
cotton availability due to change in Chinas cotton policy has
resulted in sharp decline in international cotton prices
Cotlook A: Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14
Aug-14 Dec-14 (F) Jun-Aug 14 Mar-May 14 Jun-Aug 13
Cotlook (Cents/Pound) 90.96 94.05 96.95 94.20 92.71 90.90 83.84
74.00 67.44 82.91 94.62 92.80 Cotlook ($/kg) 2.01 2.07 2.14 2.08
2.04 2.00 1.85 1.63 1.49 1.83 2.09 2.05 YoY Change 6% 5% 3% 2% 0%
-2% -9% -20% -23% -11% 1% 11% Cotlook A is an index representative
of the level of offering prices on the international raw cotton
market. It is an average of the cheapest five quotations from a
selection (at present numbering nineteen) of the principal upland
cottons traded internationally
The Cotlook A Index which had remained range-bound at ~USD 2/Kg
over last three cotton seasons, had been declining since April 2014
after the announcement by China to discontinue its
three year old cotton stocking policy, which had supported the
global prices over this period, despite the rising global stock
levels. China had been purchasing its domestic cotton at
support
prices which were higher than the international prices and most
of the global cotton stock was being built up in China which is
estimated to have accumulated cotton stock equivalent to ~62%
of the global stock at the end of CY 2013/14. Due to higher
prices, the cotton stock in China was not available to the mills in
China which had relied on import of cotton/cotton yarn from
other
countries to meet their requirement. This had resulted in tight
global cotton position outside China and had kept the global prices
firm. However with shift to direct subsidy policy in China from
CY 2014/15, the global availability of cotton would improve
(world less cotton stock to demand ratio expected to increase to
39% at end of CY 2014/15 compared to 33% in the previous year)
and this has resulted in decline in the international cotton
prices. In addition to the cotton policy change in China, increase
in estimate global cotton production in CY 2014/15 had also
contributed to the decline in the international cotton prices.
The Cotlook A Index which was at USD 2.1/Kg in March 2014 had
declined by 24% to USD 1.6/Kg in August 2014 and the December
futures are prevailing lower by further ~9% at ~USD 1.5/Kg.
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 10
Indian Cotton Scenario Domestic cotton stock position to improve
in CY 2014/15 due to decline in exports which is expected on
account of reduced demand from China
The domestic stock position at the end of cotton year which ends
in September 2014 (CY 2013/14) is expected to improve from the
previous
estimate with closing stock of ~3.3~3.6 million bales which
would be equivalent to stock to consumption ratio of ~11~12% at the
end of CY
2013/14 compared to the previous estimate of ~6~8%. The
improvement in the domestic stock position had been driven by
revision in the
production estimate for CY 2013/14 by ~7% in line with the
revision in the production estimate by Cotton Advisory Board (CAB).
The revision
in the production estimate by CAB was anticipated while making
the previous estimate in the backdrop of high levels of exports
during the
year, which would have otherwise reduced the closing stock
levels to the lowest level since the last two decades. Despite the
improvement
in the expected stock position, it would continue to remain
tight with stock of only ~1.5 months of consumption at the end of
CY 2013/14.
The cotton production in CY 2014/15 is expected to be ~38~39
million bales, which is a modest decline of ~3% over CY 2013/14.
While the
cotton acreage is higher by ~10% at 12.5 million hectare,
expected reduction in yield due to scattered and late onset of the
monsoons is
expected to result in decline in the production in CY 2014/15.
The cotton exports are expected to decline significantly by ~40% in
CY
2014/15 on account of reduced demand from China as the cotton
prices in China are expected to align with the international prices
on
import parity basis (including import duty) which would reduce
the cotton imports by China. While the yarn exports are also
expected to
decline due to decline in demand from China as it increases the
consumption of its domestic cotton, improvement in the domestic
demand
in India and shift towards cotton yarn due to decline in price
differential between cotton and polyester fiber prices is expected
to keep the
cotton consumption at similar levels as that in CY 2013/14. As a
result, due to reduced exports, the closing stock levels are
expected to
increase significantly to ~6.5~7.5 million bales, which would
increase the stock to consumption ratio to ~24%, the highest since
last five
cotton seasons.
Indian Cotton Balance Sheet Mn bales of 170 kgs CY10 CY11 CY12
CY13 CY14 CY14 CY14 CY15
Actual Actual Actual Actual
Provisional as on July 2014
ICRAs Revised Estimates (Sep-14)
ICRAs Earlier Estimates (May-14)
ICRAs Estimate (Sep-14)
Opening stock 7.2 4.1 4.6 4.0^ 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3~3.6 Production
30.5 33.9 35.3 36.5 39.0 39.0~40.0 36.5~37.5 38.0~39.0 Imports 0.6
0.2 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.7~0.9 1.0~1.5 0.8~1.0 Consumption 25.9 26.0 25.3
28.3 28.7 28.6~29.2 29.2~29.7 28.6~29.2 Exports 8.3 7.7 12.9 10.1
11.4 11.4~11.6 10.0~10.5 6.5~7.5 Closing Stock 4.1 4.6 2.9^ 3.5 3.2
3.3~3.6 1.8~2.3 7.0 Stock to use ratio 16% 18% 11% 12% 11% 11~12%
6~8% 24% Sources: ICRA Estimates, CCI, Cotton Advisory Board of
India (CAB); The above data refers to Indian cotton year (CY) which
commence from October and ends in September ^During April 2013, CAB
revised its opening stock estimates for CY2013
Monthly cotton consumption and exports Mn bales of 170 kgs
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 9M CY 14 9M CY 13 %
Change CY 13
Cotton Consumption 2.52 2.32 2.51 2.42 2.46 2.42 21.86 20.36 7%
28.32 Cotton Exports 2.06 1.42 1.31 0.92 0.65 0.36 11.23 9.48 18%
10.14 Sources: Textile Commissioner, USDA
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, USDA, Textile
Commissioner, Cotton Advisory Board of India; Cotton Corporation of
India, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. The above data
refers to the Indian cotton year which commences in October and
ends in September
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 11
Outlook on International Cotton Prices (CY 2014/15) -
International cotton prices to soften further on account of
increase in global availability of cotton; Chinas policy on sale of
its cotton reserves remains key driver for the international cotton
prices
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, Cotton Outlook Limited
Cotton prices are for ginned cotton.
The international cotton prices had been declining since April
2014 after the announcement by China on termination of its three
year old
cotton stocking policy and shift towards direct subsidy policy
which is expected to make the cotton available to mills in China at
market
rates, reducing their import requirement for cotton and cotton
yarn. As the import demand from China had resulted in low global
stock
levels outside China, which had kept the global cotton prices
firm over the last three cotton seasons, reduction in import demand
from
China would increase the cotton stock levels outside China,
which shall result in softening in the international prices. As the
cotton from
new cotton season CY 2014/15 shall be available from end of
September/October 2014, the international cotton prices have
already
declined by ~24% till August 2014 from the price in March 2014
and the December future price are prevailing further lower by ~9%.
The
international cotton prices are expected to align with the
future price at ~USD 1.5/Kg for CY 2014/15 compared to ~USD 2.0/Kg
which had
prevailed over the last three cotton season. Moreover, as the
global cotton position turns surplus from CY 2014/15, the
international
prices shall be driven by the prices in the main consuming
country, i.e. China unlike the prices in the previous cotton
seasons when the
prices were driven by the prices in the main supplying country
i.e. India, as the global stock position (excluding China) was
tight.
As the international prices shall be driven by the prices in
China, they remain sensitive to Chinas policy on release of cotton
from its
reserves which hold ~62% of global cotton stock. Release of
cotton from the reserves at prices such that it is lower than the
landed cost of
imported cotton (international cotton price plus import duty),
would further reduce the import demand from China from the
current
estimate. This would increase stock levels outside China, which
shall in turn lead to further decline in the international
prices.
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 11M CY 14 11M CY 13 %
Change
Cotton Prices (USD/Kg) 1.93 1.96 2.00 1.98 1.95 1.84 1.92 1.88
2% % change YoY -3% -1% 4% 2% -2% -10% Sources: Textile
Commissioner, ICRA research
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 12
Outlook on Domestic Cotton Prices (CY 2014/15) - Domestic prices
also expected to decline to align with international prices and
also due to improvement in domestic stock position
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, Cotton Advisory Board of
India; Cotton Corporation of India. Cotton prices are for ginned
cotton
Though the international cotton prices had declined since April
2014, the domestic cotton prices had remained firm and had
increased till
May 2014 in both dollar and rupee terms on account of tight
domestic stock position due to high levels of cotton and cotton
equivalent
yarn export. The pending cotton arrivals as on June 2014 was
~3.0 million bales while the cotton stock with the mills was ~5.1
million
bales, resulting in total availability of ~8.1 million bale of
cotton till end of CY 2013/14, which was just sufficient to meet
the cotton
requirement.
However, the domestic prices had been declining since June 2014
as the new cotton season approaches, to align with the
international
prices and also easing of production concerns for CY 2014/15
after recovery of monsoon from late July/August 2014. The domestic
cotton
prices in August 2014 was USD 1.8/Kg which is lower by ~8%
compared to the price in May 2014 and lower by ~10% on YoY basis.
The
domestic cotton prices in August 2014 was Rs. 111.8/Kg in rupee
terms which is lower by ~9% compared to the price in May 2014
and
lower by ~13% on YoY basis.
The domestic prices are expected to decline further as it
converges with the international cotton prices, given the limited
trade
restrictions on cotton import/export and also due to the
expectation of increase in the domestic cotton stock levels at the
end of CY
2014/15. With domestic cotton prices already below the Minimum
Support Price (MSP) in August 2014 and with expectation of
further
decline in the prices, the possibility of significant MSP
operations by the government during the CY 2014/15 is high.
The decline in the cotton prices would however reduce the
funding requirement for the Indian spinning mills who typically
stock their
cotton requirements for the entire season during the harvest
season which is till March. Moreover, given the susceptibility of
the cotton
prices on Chinas policy on liquidation of its cotton reserve,
the spinning mills are likely to adopt a cautious approach whi le
stocking
cotton for the CY 2014/15.
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 11M CY 14 11M CY 13 %
Change
Cotton Prices (Rs./Kg) 117.99 118.20 123.27 118.23 117.12 111.79
117.58 105.29 12% % change YoY 10% 10% 16% 6% -2% -13% Cotton
Prices (USD/Kg) 1.93 1.96 2.00 1.98 1.95 1.84 1.92 1.88 2% % change
YoY -3% -1% 4% 2% -2% -10% Sources: Textile Commissioner, ICRA
research
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 13
Decline in demand from China has reduced the cotton yarn exports
from India which has increased the domestic inventory levels as the
production has remained steady
The domestic cotton yarn production continued to remain steady
with production increasing by 4.5% during Q1 FY2014-15 over the
same period last year, though it has moderated from the growth
of 9.8% witnessed in FY 2013-14. The increase in the production
had
been driven by improved capacity utilization of the mills which
had operated at an average of ~96% utilization level during this
period
compared to utilization level of ~92% in the same period last
year.
As the spinning mills have been operating at high utilization
levels, the pace of growth is likely to slow down going forward,
even if
the current demand sustains, as also reflected in stagnation in
the production volumes since September 2013.
The increase in the production and thereby of the capacity
utilization (from ~80% in FY 2011-12 to ~95% in FY 2013-14) of the
Indian
spinning industry over the last two years was primarily on
account of substantial increase in the export demand, primarily
from
China, which was driven by high cotton prices in its domestic
market and import restrictions on cotton, thereby making it cheaper
to
import cotton yarn rather than cotton.
As the cotton prices in China has eased since April 2014 due to
reduction in the reserve auction price (to Yuan 17,250/ton from
Yuan
18,000/ton earlier) and expectation of lower prices in CY
2014/15 with shift to direct subsidy policy, the demand of yarn
from China
has witnessed a decline in Q1 FY 2014-15 due to increase in its
domestic production as also reflected in decline in yarn exports
from
India by ~5.6% in Q1 FY 2014-15 over the same period last year.
The export registration for yarn in volume terms in Q1 FY
2014-15
has reduced by ~18% on YoY basis and by ~21% on QoQ basis with
the proportion of yarn export registration to total yarn
production
declining to ~29% in Q1 FY 2014-15 as compared to ~36% in Q4 FY
2013-14.
Despite the decline in yarn exports, the domestic yarn
production had remained steady which along with relatively flat
domestic
demand has resulted in increase in the domestic yarn inventory
levels in Q1 FY 2014-15 which has increased to ~13 days as
compared
to ~11 days in Q4 FY 2013-14 and Q1 FY 2013-14.
2.9 3.1 3.5 3.1 3.6 3.9 1.0
1.0 1.11.2
1.21.3
1.4
0.3
1.41.5
1.51.5
1.371.3
0.3
19% 19%20%
24%
31%33%
27%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 3M Mar-15
Pro
du
ctio
n -
Mill
ion
To
ns
Trend in Yarn Production and Exports
Cotton Yarn Blended Spun Yarn
Man Made filament Yarn % Cotton Yarn Export (RHS)
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, Ministry of Textiles,
Textile Commissioner
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 14
Capacity utilization of the Indian spinning mills is likely to
decline in FY 2014-15 due to reduced export demand unless supported
by increase in domestic demand
With the expectation of further easing of cotton prices in China
with the arrival of new cotton in CY 2014/15, the demand for
Indian
yarn is likely to decline and may pose pressure on capacity
utilization levels which may result in decline in yarn production
during the
year unless supported by increase in domestic demand.
Around 20% reduction in export demand in FY 2014-15 (as per the
trend during Q1 FY 2014-15) without corresponding pick up in
the
domestic demand may result in decline in capacity utilization of
the spinning mills to ~90% compared to ~95% in the previous
year.
Given the substantial nature of fixed overheads, the decline in
the capacity utilization would also result in moderation in the
profitability.
Within spun yarn*, which accounts for most of the domestic yarn
production at ~80% in FY 2013-14, the share of cotton yarn vs
blended
yarn has ranged from ~74% to 76% over the last two years
depending upon the price differential between the cotton and
polyester fiber.
The proportion of cotton yarn in total spun yarn production
during Q1 FY 2014-15 had declined to 74.2% from 74.7% in Q4 FY
2013-14 on
account of increase in the price differential between cotton and
polyester fiber to ~Rs. 22.1/Kg from ~Rs. 19.8/Kg.
*Spun yarn refers to yarn manufactured on spindles/rotors
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14
Pro
du
ctio
n -
Mill
ion
Kg
Trend in Total Spun Yarn Production and Capacity Utilisation
Spun Yarn Production Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, Ministry of Textiles,
Textile Commissioner
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 15
Spread between yarn and cotton prices during 5M FY 2014-15
remain lower over the previous period on account of higher cotton
prices
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14
US$
/Kg
International Cotton Yarn Prices
China India Pakistan
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14
US$
/Kg
Cotton Yarn Spread - US$/Kg
China India Pakistan
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Industry data, Ministry of Textiles,
Textile Commissioner The above data refers to the Indian financial
year which begins in April and ends in March
The average export price of yarn for Indian spinners price
during 5M FY 2014-15 had been lower by ~5.8% compared to the same
period
last year; however due to rupee depreciation, the domestic yarn
prices in rupee terms had been at similar levels.
The domestic yarn price in August 2014 was Rs. 195/Kg while the
yarn export price was USD 3.2/Kg. While the yarn prices in USD and
local
currency terms in both China and Pakistan had been lower during
5M FY 2014-15 over the corresponding previous period by ~4~6%,
the
rupee prices of yarn in India had been flat.
The yarn prices have however started to decline from August 2014
on account of decline in cotton prices and with the expectation of
lower
cotton prices in CY 2014/15, the yarn prices are expected to
decline from the current levels from October/November 2014. The
yarn prices
(in USD) in the three major yarn producing countries i.e. China,
India and Pakistan had been declining since April 2014 with the
decline in
the international cotton prices after the announcement by China
to shift to direct subsidy based policy which is expected to
improve the
global cotton availability from CY 2014/15.
The export spread (difference between yarn and cotton prices)
for the Indian spinners during 5M FY 2014-15 remains lower compared
to
that over the corresponding period last year as the decline in
the yarn prices (in USD terms) had been more than that in the
cotton prices.
The average spread during this period was ~USD 1.37/Kg which is
lower by ~11.2% over the previous corresponding period.
The average spread in rupee terms (~Rs.82/Kg during 5M FY
2014-15) had also been lower compared to the previous corresponding
period,
though the decline had been lower at ~4.4% due to rupee
depreciation. The average exchange rate during 5M FY 2014-15 was
Rs. 60/USD
compared to ~Rs. 58/USD in the previous year with rupee
depreciating by ~3.9% over this period.
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 16
Margins in Q1 FY 2014-15 were stable due to stable yarn prices,
though likely to moderate in Q2 FY 2014-15
While the spread in Q1 FY 2014-15 in rupee terms (Rs. 81.7/Kg)
was higher by ~4% and in USD terms (USD 1.4/Kg) by ~9% compared to
that in Q4 FY 2013-14 (Rs. 78.8/Kg and USD 1.3/Kg
respectively), the profitability had been at similar levels as
the yarn prices were flat during this period while the average
cotton procurement cost for the mills remained at similar levels
as
that in Q4 FY 2013-14 because mills typically stock cotton
during the harvest season till March 2014 for the remaining period
of the cotton year. The yarn prices had moderated with the
decline in the cotton prices in Q2 FY 2014-15, however due to
higher cost cotton procured during the cotton harvest season, the
profitability of the Indian spinners is expected to moderate
from that witnessed in Q1 FY 2014-15. Moreover decline in the
capacity utilization levels due to slowdown in the export demand
would also have an impact on the profitability in Q2 FY
2014-15.
Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 5M-FY 15 5M-FY 14 %
Change
Cotton Yarn Prices (Rs./Kg) 196 202 200 198 200 195 199 201 -1%
% change YoY 2% 0% 4% 0% -2% -6% Cotton Yarn Prices (USD/Kg) 3.17
3.37 3.32 3.35 3.33 3.23 3.32 3.53 -6% % change YoY -10% -9% -7%
-4% -3% -5% Contribution (Rs./Kg) 78.06 83.79 81.56 79.87 83.18
82.98 82.28 86.05 -4% % change YoY -7% -11% -5% -7% -2% 5%
Contribution (USD/Kg) 1.24 1.41 1.32 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.37 1.55 -11%
% change YoY -21% -19% -20% -12% -3% 2% Source: Textile
Commissioner, ICRA research
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 17
Outlook on Indian spinning industry: Stable with possible
downside risk on account of expected reduction in export demand for
yarn which would put pressure on the capacity utilization and
contribution margin of the Indian spinners; Indian spinners to
however benefit from low cotton cost which shall reduce their
funding requirements
Due to increase in cotton prices during CY 2013/14 (from Q3 FY
2013-14 onwards) with relatively modest increase in yarn
realization, the contribution margin of the Indian spinners had
reduced since onset of new cotton season. As a result, the
profitability of the Indian spinners had declined in H2 FY 2013-14,
though it remained robust. The profitability in Q1 FY 2014-15
was
stable as that in Q4 FY 2013-14 as the domestic yarn prices were
stable while the cotton procurement cost remained at similar levels
as that in Q4 FY 2013-14 due to stocking of cotton by the
spinning mills during the harvest season which ends in
March.
The profitability is however likely to moderate in Q2 FY 2014-15
as the yarn prices have declined with decline in cotton prices
while the cotton procurement cost shall remain at similar level
to that in the last quarter. Moreover, as the yarn demand from
China is expected to reduce, the capacity utilization of the Indian
spinners would be under pressure which would result in
downward pressure on the profitability in H2 FY 2014-15 given
the substantial overheads and also on account of oversupply in the
market.
The outlook on the Indian cotton spinning industry is stable
with possible downside risk on account of risk emanating from the
changes in the Chinas cotton policy for CY 2014/15, which is
already evident in reduced prices of cotton futures. As against
the average of USD 2.0/Kg of Cotlook A price for CY 2013/14, the
Cotlook A futures for December 2014 are currently prevailing at
USD 1.49/Kg, which will also result in decline in the domestic
cotton prices as it converges closer to the international prices,
given the limited trade restrictions on cotton import/export
and
expected improvement in the domestic stock levels at the end of
CY 2014/15. The domestic cotton prices in August 2014 has already
fallen below the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and given
the expectation of further reduction in the cotton prices in CY
2014/15, the possibility of substantial support operations under
MSP by the government is fairly high. Since the decline in
cotton
prices will coincide with the beginning of cotton season, when
the stocks with the mills are lowest, the risk of inventory losses
for mills (as happened in FY 2011-12) is low.
The decline in cotton prices will be beneficial for industry as
it will reduce the input cost as well as inventory funding
requirements apart from improving demand for cotton yarn on account
of
increased competiveness with respect to synthetic fibers which
shall result in fiber substitution. However as the increase in the
capacity utilization and thereby of yarn production over the
last
two years was driven by the demand from China which had resulted
in yarn export from India reaching all time high of 33% of domestic
production in FY 2013-14, the export volumes of Indian
yarn will be adversely impacted as China increases the
consumption of its domestic cotton stocks to meet its yarn demand.
As a result, the ability of industry to maintain high capacity
utilization as well as profit contribution levels in a declining
demand scenario would be a challenge.
Around 20% reduction in export demand in FY 2014-15 (as per the
trend during Q1 FY 2014-15) without corresponding pick up in the
domestic demand may result in decline in capacity
utilization of the spinning industry to ~90% compared to ~95% in
the previous year. Moreover, given the uncertainty on the Chinas
policy on liquidation of its huge cotton stock, the mills are
expected to be cautious while stocking cotton during CY 2014/15
to avoid any inventory loss. Liquidation of cotton stock by China
at prices which are lower than the landed cost of imported
cotton (including import duty) would further lower Chinas import
demand of cotton from the current estimate, which would further
depress the international cotton prices and could result in
inventory loss for those players who stock substantial cotton
inventory.
Though the cotton prices in China are likely to decline from CY
2014/15 which would increase its domestic yarn production, however
given its significant requirement of cotton and cotton
yarn, China, to an extent would continue to remain dependent on
import of cotton/cotton yarn to meet its requirement, if the huge
cotton stock is not liquidated. As a result, continued duty
free imports of yarn as well as continuance of the import duty
on cotton imports will be critical to ensure that the Chinese yarn
demand is met through import of yarn, rather than import of
cotton. Reduced import duty on cotton by China will shift the
Chinese yarn demand from import to its domestic sources, which was
the practice prior to CY 2011/12.
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 18
Financial performance had remained steady in Q1 FY 2014-15;
however it is expected to moderate going forward on account of
profitability pressure due to reduced demand
The financial performance of the Indian spinning industry was
stable in Q1 FY 2014-15 as compared to that in Q4 FY 2013-14 as
the
yarn production and spread between the yarn & cotton prices
remained steady. However, decline in yarn prices in Q2 FY
2014-15
with high cost carry forward cotton stock from the CY 2013/14
and decline in the export demand is likely to result in moderation
in
the profitability and debt coverage for the full year FY 2014-15
as compared to the previous year. Due to leveraged capital
structure
arising out of capital intensity (fixed as well as working
capital) and tendency to leverage on account of interest subsidies
available
on term debt, the financial profile of the industry remains
vulnerable to cyclical moderations in profitability.
Revenue Growth: For the ICRAs sample set of 22 large cotton
spinners, revenues had increased by 11% in Q1 FY 2014-15 (YoY)
as
against an increase of ~5% in cotton yarn production and ~2%
increase in sales realizations witnessed by the industry. The
revenue
growth in Q1 FY 2014-15 is similar to the revenue growth
witnessed in Q4 FY 2013-14 on YoY basis. The revenue growth has
however moderated from that in the previous quarters due to
moderation in the production growth on account of the capacity
constraints as the industry has been operating at high
utilization levels. However ability to prevent de-growth in the
backdrop of
expected moderation in export demand and decline in yarn prices
will remain a key challenge for domestic industry. The revenues
for the companies in ICRA sample set had declined by ~2% in Q1
FY 2014-15 on QoQ basis and is expected to decline by ~8~10% in
FY 2014-15 driven by expected decline in production as well as
yarn realizations.
Profitability margins: The profitability margin in Q1 FY 2014-15
remained comfortable at ~15% and was at similar levels as that in
Q4
FY 2013-14. The profitability is however expected to decline to
~12% in Q2 FY 2014-15 on account of decline in yarn prices. For
full
year FY 2014-15, ICRA expects the profitability of companies in
ICRA sample set to decline to ~13% compared to ~17% in FY
2013-14
as the inventory gain realized during H1 FY 2013-14 would not be
available this year and expected reduction in demand.
Debt Coverage: While the operating profitability was stable in
Q1 FY 2014-15, the increase in the interest expense by ~13% on
QoQ
basis had resulted in moderation in the interest coverage from
3.5 times in Q4 FY 2013-14 to 3.0 times in Q1 FY 2014-15. While
in
quantity terms the cotton inventory has not changed
significantly in March 2014 vs March 2013, however increased prices
of cotton
as well as yarn has increased amounts of working capital
borrowings leading to increase in interest expense, which couled
with
decline in absolute operating profits had resulted in decline in
interest coverage. With expected profitability pressures in FY
2014-15,
the debt coverage indicators are expected to moderate, however,
lower cotton prices would reduce the funding requirement and
limit moderation in the debt coverage.
Sources: Aggregate financials for 22 large cotton spinning
companies which are listed on stock exchanges;
Sources: Aggregate financials for 22 large cotton spinning
companies which are listed on stock exchanges; The above 12 Month
data refers to the period which commences in April and ends in
March The above data refers to the quarterly financial performance
as reported by these companies to the stock exchanges
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 19
Annexure 1: Rating Distribution - ICRA rated Entities Upgrades
in 5M FY 2014-15 continue to outpace the downgrades due to improved
operating and financial position
While assessing the credit profile of spinning companies, ICRA
factors in attributes which include:
a) Scale of operations and extent of modernization of
manufacturing facilities: Yarn being a commoditized product results
in limited pricing power, hence larger scale of operations,
modernized facilities helps in reducing wastages/improving yields
and improving economies of scale, thereby resulting in better cost
structure and fundamentally improves the ability to compete in
commoditized market
b) Capacity Utilization levels: As reflected in the average
utilization of ~95% for the spinning industry, high capacity
utilization is of utmost importance so as to reduce the fixed
capital cost per unit of production, given the capital intensive
nature of the sector. The track record of maintaining high
utilization levels/ fast ramp up of new capacities is considered a
positive attribute for the entities being rated
c) Level of Integration: Higher levels of integration lead to
lower cyclicality in profitability margins as the entitys exposure
to intermediate goods in the value chain is lower. For example, an
integrated fabric manufacturer witnesses a lower volatility in
profit margins than a standalone spinner. Integrated operations
also help in reducing overheads related to sales, transportation,
packaging, taxes at intermediate stages etc.
d) Diversified product portfolio: Better value addition with
higher share of value added yarns can improve pricing power to an
extent and hence considered as a positive attribute e) Distribution
and selling network: Diversity in customer profile and markets
helps to reduce adversities in a particular market and capitalize
on opportunities in other markets f) Working capital management:
Given the seasonal nature of cotton availability, the working
capital intensity of the business remains high. Prudent stocking of
cotton in relation to
orders in hand, outlook on cotton availability and prices is an
important factor to mitigate the inventory holding risks g)
Financial Profile: Spinning companies are usually highly leveraged,
both because of capital intensive nature of the industry,
investment incentives available as well as large stocking
requirement due to seasonal nature of procurement. Owing to high
leverage, high working capital requirements and exposure to
cyclical trends in the industry, financial flexibility in terms of
availability of unutilized working capital limits, ability to stock
cotton during harvest season and ability to refinance/raise fresh
borrowings are key factors for measuring financial flexibility
h) Scale of projects and ability to fund: Given the availability
of investment incentives, the players have a tendency to leverage
and continuously undertake new projects. The scale of these new
projects and ability to fund the same are also key constraining
factors for the credit profile.
i) Eligibility under Investment incentives: Availability of
investment incentives under schemes such as TUFS improves the
return on capital indicators and supports the projects
profitability. Approvals at the time of being rated reduces the
ambiguities related to availability of the incentives and can be a
supporting factor for the credit profile
j) While ICRA tends to achieve rating
While ICRA tends to achieve rating stability by rating entities
through the cycles, sharp correction in cotton prices leading to
high inventory losses resulted in sizeable rating downgrades in
FY12, the spillover effects of which continued in H1-FY13 too.
Subsequently, with the improvement in profitability and accruals in
FY 13 which continued in FY 14 as well, upgrades in FY14 have
significantly outpaced the downgrades with the number of upgrades
at almost the similar levels as downgrades in FY12. With
improvement in financials, the pace of upgrades continues to remain
high during 5M FY 15, however with expected profitability
pressures; this is unlikely to continue in near future. Rating
migration of ICRA-rated spinning companies
FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 5M FY 2015
Total Downgrades in Textile sector 16 32 120 80 35 14 Total
Upgrades in Textile sector 5 0 19 32 111 62 Downgrade to upgrade
ratio 3.20 - 6.32 2.50 0.32 0.23 Total Downgrades in spinning
sector 8 15 81 38 11 4 Total Upgrades in spinning sector 2 0 8 12
66 28 Downgrade to upgrade ratio 4.00 - 10.13 3.17 0.17 0.14
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 20
Annexure 2: RR-TUFS: Investment in standalone spinning projects
remain subdued due to reduction in benefits as the scheme focuses
on capacity creation in down-stream sectors
Sources: ICRA Estimates, Ministry of Textiles, Textile
Commissioner, The above data refers to the Indian financial year
which commences in April and ends in March
The R-TUFS scheme was modified in October 2013 to Revised
Restructured TUFS (RR-TUFS) to incentivize investments in
downstream capacities in the weaving, processing and garmenting
sectors to achieve balanced growth across the value
chain as most of the investments under the previous TUFS schemes
had been mostly in the spinning sector. While significant
investment in the spinning sector was made as reflected in the
domestic spinning capacity not only being sufficient to meet
the domestic requirements but also able to export ~33% of the
yarn production, the investments in the other sectors had
lagged.
Due to reduction in the incentives available to standalone
spinning projects under RR-TUFS, the incremental investment in
the standalone spinning projects has remained subdued. The share
of standalone spinning projects approved under RR-TUFS
was only ~23% of the total projects approved as on September
2014, which has declined from a share of 30% in May 2014.
The moderation is also evident in only 30% of the total subsidy
earmarked for standalone spinning projects utilized till
September 2014 (increased from 24% in May 2014) compared to 81%
utilization of the total subsidy earmarked for other
sectors which include weaving, processing and garmenting (43% in
May 2014), indicating shift towards integrated projects
and standalone downstream sectors as these projects offer higher
fiscal benefits as compared to standalone spinning
projects.
Though the benefits under RR-TUFS have been reduced for
standalone spinning projects, it is compensated by the
incentives
available under investment schemes announced by the various
state governments such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra and Rajasthan and incremental additions should
largely be concentrated in these states only.
The pace of investments in the integrated projects and
down-stream sectors have picked up significantly over the last
few
months and with only ~19% of the sanctioned subsidy available
for these sectors as on September 2014 for the rest of the
12th
five year plan, the government would have to increase the
subsidy available under RR-TUFS to maintain the pace of
investment in the textile sector.
The subsidy caps and their utilization under RR-TUFS are as
mentioned below: Rs in Billion Sector
Subsidy Cap for fresh investment
under RR-TUFS
Subsidy available as on September
2014
Subsidy available as on
May 2014
% subsidy utilized as on September 2014 out of total
subsidy earmarked
% subsidy utilized as on May 2014 out of total
subsidy earmarked
% Share of sector in subsidy approved under RR-TUFS till
September 2014
% Share of sector in subsidy approved under RR-TUFS till May
2014
A B C (A-B)/A (A-C)/A % breakup of (A-B) % breakup of (A-C)
Spinning 4.75 3.30 3.63 30% 24% 9% 12% Others* 18.88 3.65 10.69
81% 43% 91% 88% Total 23.63 6.96 14.32 71% 39% 100% 100% * The
sectoral caps have been removed in RR TUFS while retaining the
share of standalone spinning at ~20% of the total subsidy for fresh
investment
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 21
Company Section
-
ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 22
AMBIKA COTTON MILLS LIMITED
ACML Ambika Cotton Mills Limited was incorporated in 1988 by Mr
P.V. Chandran and commenced production of cotton yarn from January
1990 with an installed capacity of 6,048 spindles. The company was
subsequently converted into a public limited company in September
1994. As on March 31, 2014, the company had a total installed
capacity of 109,872 spindles across four manufacturing units in
Tamil Nadu. The company also has 27.4 MW captive wind power
generation capacity in Tamil Nadu which was increased from the
earlier capacity of 15.4 MW in FY 2011 at an investment of Rs. 0.73
billion. The captive wind power met around 72% of the power
requirement of the spinning units and has supported high capacity
utilization of the spinning units, given the power shortage in the
state. umore than half of the power requirements of its
manufacturing units The company focuses on value add speciality
yarn such as compact and elitwist yarn with presence across a wide
count range from 24s to 140s which has resulted in consistent high
operating profitability for the company. Out of the total capacity
of 109,872 spindles, ~92% of the capacity is for manufacturing of
value add compact yarn. As the company mostly manufactures high
count yarn, it utilizes high proportion of long staple cotton,
which is mostly imported (such as Supima from USA and Giza from
Egypt). During FY 2014, it imported 82% of its total raw material
requirement compared to 61% in FY 2013 and 33% in FY 2012. The
proportion of export sales have increased steadily over the years
and in FY 2014, exports accounted for ~62% of the total sales of
the company, given the healthy export demand and companys product
portfolio of value add premium yarn. Most of the exports are to
East Asian and South East Asian countries which accounted for ~78%
of the total exports of the company followed by South Asia which
accounted for 12% and Europe which accounted for ~9% of total
exports in FY 2014 with the balance 1% being contributed from other
various countries.
Sources: ICRA Research, Companys Annual Report, Quarterly
Results filing with stock exchanges, BSE, NSE
Fact Sheet
Incorporation 1988 Geographical Revenue Mix FY14 Plant Location
Tamil Nadu Domestic 38% Exports 62% Installed Capacities % Product
Revenue Mix FY14
Spinning 109,872 spindles Yarn 88% Weaving - Fabric 1%
Processing - Garments 0% Garmenting - Others 11% Retailing - Total
(Rs billion) 4.77
Chairman cum Managing Director Mr. P.V. Chandran Bankers IDBI,
Bank of Nova Scotia, BOB, Corporation Bank, Axis
Bank Auditors L. Venkatasubbu & Co
Standalone(Rs. Billion) FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
Operating Income 3.89 3.98 4.77 YoY Growth (%) 19% 2% 20% OPBDIT
0.78 0.87 1.04 Interest Charges 0.20 0.19 0.13 PAT 0.24 0.31 0.48
Earnings per Share 40.65 52.74 81.94 Dividend per Share 5.00 9.50
12.50 Net Fixed Assets 3.10 2.91 2.89 Total Assets 4.43 4.30 4.66
Total Debt 1.52 0.94 1.00 Tangible Net worth 1.96 2.20 2.60
OPBDIT/OI (%) 20% 22% 22% PAT/OI (%) 6% 8% 10% ROCE (%) 12% 16%
19%
Total Debt/Net Worth 0.78 0.43 0.39 TOL/TNW 1.24 0.95 0.79
OPBDIT/Interest 3.90 4.50 8.07 NCA/Total Debt 33% 62% 80% Total
Debt/OPBDITA 1.94 1.08 0.96 Debtor (Days) 10 6 4 Inventory (Days)
106 115 140
ICRA Ratings Long Term NA Short Term NA Outlook NA
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 48.63% FIIs 0.00% DIIs 7.00%
Public: Individuals 31.20% Public: Others 13.17%
Price Performance
Closing Price (Rs.) 453.8 Market Cap (bn) 2.7 52W H/L (Rs.)
556.75/232.15 3M 12M ACML (%) 14% 86% BSE 500 (%) 4% 38% CNX Nifty
500 (%) 4% 39%
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Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q4 FY12 Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3FY13
Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14
Operating Income 0.89 1.04 0.94 1.10 1.07 1.25 1.28 1.18 1.21
0.89 1.04 0.94 1.10 1.07 1.25 1.28 1.18 0.92 0.89 1.04 0.94 1.10
1.07 1.25 Growth (%) - YoY 5% -2% 20% 20% 20% 36% 7% 14% 5% -2% 20%
20% 20% 36% 7% 5% -2% 17% 17% 16% OPBDIT 0.20 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.21
0.27 0.30 0.26 0.27 0.20 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.27 0.30 0.26 0.16
0.20 0.23 0.21 0.22 0.21 0.27 PAT 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.14
0.15 0.10 0.13 0.05 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.14 0.15 0.10 0.03 0.05
0.09 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.14 OPBDIT/OI (%) 22% 23% 22% 20% 19% 21% 23%
22% 23% 22% 23% 22% 20% 19% 21% 23% 22% 17% 22% 22% 22% 20% 19% 21%
PAT/OI (%) 6% 9% 9% 8% 8% 12% 12% 9% 11% 6% 9% 9% 8% 8% 12% 12% 9%
3% 6% 9% 9% 8% 8% 12% OPBDITA/Interest 3.25 4.87 5.20 5.83 7.57
8.08 11.28 9.54 12.99 3.25 4.87 5.20 5.83 7.57 8.08 11.28 9.54 3.09
3.25 4.68 5.20 5.83 7.57 8.08
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 23
BANNARI AMMAN SPINNING MILLS LIMITED
Bannari Amman Spinning Mills Ltd (BASML) was incorporated in
1989 as Shiva Textile and was renamed to BASML in FY 1991. BASML is
part of one of the prominent industrial groups in South India, The
Bannari Amman Group which has business activities in Sugar,
Textiles, Distilleries, Education, etc. BASML is an integrated
textile manufacturer which presence in spinning, weaving/knitting,
processing and garmenting. The companys manufacturing facilities
are located in the state of Tamil Nadu (TN).
The spinning unit with installed spinning capacity of 144,240
spindles is located in Dindigul, Tamil Nadu (TN), which has
capacity to produce ~60 Ton of yarn per day. In FY 2014, the yarn
production volume stood at 20,700 MT, which was higher by ~18% on
YoY basis. The spinning operations are supported by captive
windmill power capacity of 29.95 Mega Watt (MW). Almost 50% of the
revenues of the spinning unit were from exports.
The weaving unit of BASML has 135 looms and is located near
Palladam, TN. The unit manufactures wide-width cotton fabric.
During FY 2014, the fabric production stood at 7.62 million meters,
which was high by ~24% on YoY basis. Moreover, 1672 MT of knitted
fabric was also manufactured in FY 2014 which was higher by 9% on
YoY basis. Almost 22% of sales of knitted fabric were from
exports.
In addition, the company has a fabric processing unit near
Annur, TN with capacity to process 24 Lakh meter of fabric p.a. to
produce coated fabric, canvas and breathable water proof
fabric.
The garment division of BASML manufactured 0.75 million pieces
of garments in FY 2014 which was higher by ~53% on YoY basis and
accounted for ~5% of BASMLs FY 2014 revenues. Almost 98% of the
revenues from this division were from exports.
Standalone(Rs.billion) Q1FY13 Q2Y13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14
Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15
Operating Income 1.35 1.36 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.87 1.75 1.92 1.73
Growth (%) - YoY 7% 51% 34% 9% 38% 20% 32% 18% OPBDIT 0.30 0.32
0.27 0.27 0.34 0.36 0.27 0.21 0.26 PAT 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.10
0.12 0.06 0.03 0.06 OPBDIT/OI (%) 22% 24% 18% 19% 23% 19% 15% 11%
15% PAT/OI (%) 6% 7% 4% 3% 7% 7% 4% 1% 3% OPBDITA/Interest 3.57
3.49 3.04 2.34 3.56 3.98 3.02 2.02 2.58
Sources: ICRA Research, Companys Annual Report, Quarterly
Results filing with stock exchanges, BSE, NSE
Fact Sheet
Incorporation 1989 Geographical Revenue Mix FY14 Plant Location
Tamil Nadu Domestic 58% Exports 42% Installed Capacities % Product
Revenue Mix FY14
Spinning 144,240 spindles Yarn 62% Weaving 135 looms Fabric 21%
Processing 2.4 mmpa^ Garments 5% Garmenting Not Available Others
12% Wind Power 29.95 MW^ Total (Rs billion) 7.00
Chairman and Managing Director Mr. S.V. Arumugam
Bankers Allahabad Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Corporation Bank,
IDBI, Indian Bank, ICICI, Karur Vysya, OBC, IOB
Auditors M/s P N Raghavendra Rao & Co
^ mmpa Million meter per annum, MW Mega Watt
Standalone(Rs. Billion) FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
Operating Income 4.60 5.60 7.00 YoY Growth (%) -16% 22% 25%
OPBDIT 0.34 1.13 1.18 Interest Charges 0.33 0.38 0.38 PAT -0.16
0.27 0.32 Earnings per Share -10.39 17.34 20.04 Dividend per Share
0.00 2.00 2.00 Net Fixed Assets 4.64 4.42 4.40 Total Assets 6.93
6.94 8.10 Total Debt 4.16 3.82 4.48 Tangible Net worth 1.86 2.12
2.41 OPBDIT/OI (%) 7% 20% 17% PAT/OI (%) -4% 5% 5% ROCE (%) 0% 12%
12% Total Debt/Net Worth 2.17 1.78 1.84 TOL/TNW 2.70 2.26 2.35
OPBDIT/Interest 1.03 2.98 3.11 NCA/Total Debt 5% 16% 15% Total
Debt/OPBDITA 12.36 3.37 3.80 Debtor (Days) 26 29 35 Inventory
(Days) 90 79 121
ICRA Ratings Long Term NA Short Term NA Outlook NA
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 55.55% FIIs 0.00% DIIs 1.13%
Public: Individuals 28.68% Public: Others 14.64%
Price Performance
Closing Price (Rs.) 142.0 Market Cap (bn) 2.2 52W H/L (Rs.)
155.1/105 3M 12M BASML (%) 14% 35% BSE 500 (%) 4% 38% CNX Nifty 500
(%) 4% 39%
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 24
BANSWARA SYNTEX LIMITED
ACML Banswara Syntex (BSL) was initially incorporated as a joint
venture company between Rajasthan State Industrial Development
& Investment Corporation Ltd. (RIICO) and Mr. R.S. Toshniwal
with its manufacturing facilities located at Banswara in state of
Rajasthan. Later in 1982, Mr Toshniwal purchased the entire stake
of RIICO.
BSL is an integrated textile player with presence in
manufacturing of blended, wool & cotton spun yarn, fabric
(including technical fabric) and readymade garments. While the
spinning, weaving and processing capacities of BSL are located in
Banswara Rajasthan, its garmenting facilities are located across
four units in Daman and one unit in Surat (Gujarat).
The company also has one joint venture, Treves Banswara Pvt.
Ltd, which produces laminated knitted and woven textiles for
internal furnishing of buses, trains and automobiles.
For FY 2014, the synthetic yarn production stood at 30.1 million
Kg (YoY decline of 3%). The fabric production stood at 36 mn meter
which was similar to that in FY 2013. The garment production was up
by 28% in FY 2014 and stood at 3.26 million pcs. The power
requirements of the manufacturing units located at Banswara are
almost met entirely through captive power plant of 33MW, which
operated at Plant load factor of ~98.1% during FY 2014.
The increase in revenues in FY 2014 by ~10% was driven by
increase in from garment and fabric sales with sales from yarn
remaining almost flat. The overall exports were also flat during FY
2014, though the exports of fabric and garments had increased
during the year.
The company incurred capex of Rs. 0.53 billion in FY 2014
towards addition of 30 looms, increase in garmenting capacity and
addition of balancing equipments in the processing unit. In FY
2015, the company plans to incur capex of ~Rs. 0.25 billion which
would be towards increase in the garmenting capacity and addition
of balancing equipments in dyeing and spinning units.
Sources: ICRA Research, Companys Annual Report, Quarterly
Results filing with stock exchanges, BSE, NSE
Fact Sheet
Incorporation 1976 Geographical Revenue Mix FY14 Plant Location
Rajasthan, Daman Domestic 57% Gujarat Exports 43% Installed
Capacities % Product Revenue Mix FY14
Spinning 152,264 spindles Yarn 37% Weaving 413 looms Fabric 41%
Processing 11,880 MT p.a.
50.0 mmpa ^ Garments 15%
Garmenting 4.5 Mn pcs p.a. Others 6% Power 33 MW^ Total (Rs
billion) 12.12
Chairman Mr. R. S. Toshniwal Managing Director Mr. R. K.
Toshniwal Bankers BOB, BOI, PNB, Union Bank of India Auditors
Kalani & Company ^ mmpa Million meter per annum, MW Mega
Watt
Standalone(Rs. Billion) FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
Operating Income 9.24 10.96 12.12 YoY Growth (%) 14% 19% 11%
OPBDIT 1.30 1.47 1.77 Interest Charges 0.75 0.82 0.81 PAT 0.15 0.12
0.27 Earnings per Share 10.06 8.15 17.13 Dividend per Share 1.50
1.50 3.00 Net Fixed Assets 4.88 5.15 5.14 Total Assets 10.22 10.77
11.22 Total Debt 6.85 6.78 6.96 Tangible Net worth 1.75 1.89 2.13
OPBDIT/OI (%) 14% 13% 15% PAT/OI (%) 2% 1% 2% ROCE (%) 12% 12% 14%
Total Debt/Net Worth 3.91 3.59 3.27 TOL/TNW 4.89 4.76 4.30
OPBDIT/Interest 1.73 1.79 2.18 NCA/Total Debt 8% 9% 11% Total
Debt/OPBDITA 5.26 4.61 3.93 Debtor (Days) 53 51 46 Inventory (Days)
136 123 118
ICRA Ratings Long Term NA Short Term NA Outlook NA
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 55.23% FIIs 13.58% DIIs 0.03%
Public: Individuals 19.08% Public: Others 12.08%
Price Performance
Closing Price (Rs.) 80.9 Market Cap (bn) 1.3 52W H/L (Rs.)
88.9/44 3M 12M BSL (%) 2% 80% BSE 500 (%) 4% 38% CNX Nifty 500 (%)
4% 39%
Stock Movement
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Price- Rs/share Standalone(Rs. billion) Q1 FY13 Q2 FY13 Q3FY13
Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15
Operating Income 2.78 2.67 2.55 2.63 3.12 2.83 3.06 3.27 3.00
Growth (%) - YoY 27% 9% 30% 12% 6% 20% 24% -4% OPBDIT 0.37 0.37
0.36 0.36 0.38 0.38 0.45 0.47 0.40 PAT 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03
0.04 0.07 0.08 0.05 OPBDIT/OI (%) 13% 14% 14% 14% 12% 13% 15% 14%
13% PAT/OI (%) 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% OPBDITA/Interest 1.80
1.81 1.86 1.70 1.79 1.74 2.26 2.44 2.02
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 25
DAMODAR INDUSTRIES LIMITED
ACML Damodar Industries Limited (DIL) was initially incorporated
at Damodar Threads Limited (DTL) in 1987 and is promoter by Mr Arun
Biyani and his brothers. In FY 1993, the company came out with an
IPO and in FY 2013 the name of the company was changed to DIL from
DTL. DIL is mainly engaged in manufacturing of yarn (both cotton
and blended) and derives almost its entire revenue from the
spinning activities. The company has four manufacturing units out
of which three are in Dadra & Nagar Haveli and one is in Daman.
A significant proportion of the yarn production is exported and
share of exports in overall revenues stood at 68% during FY 2014.
The exports were up by ~26% during FY 2014. In FY 2012, DIL had
started manufacturing fabric on outsourcing basis and in the same
year had also started a FMCG division wherein it sells the products
under the brand Calves N Leaves. The revenues of DIL have witnessed
strong growth in FY 2014 by 26%, however majority of the revenue
growth was driven by increase in trading activity which had
increased by 36%. As against 49% of revenues from trading sale (~Rs
2.86 billion) in total revenues of Rs 5.82 billion in FY 2013; the
trading sales increased to Rs 3.88 billion (~53% of revenues) in FY
2014 leading to strong revenue growth. The revenues from sale of
in-house manufactured yarn increased from Rs 2.97 billion to Rs
3.46 billion, which is a growth of ~17%. Owing to high share of the
trading volumes, the profit margins have remained modest and at
similar levels as against sharp improvement witnessed by other
industry players in FY 2013 and FY 2014.
Sources: ICRA Research, Companys Annual Report, Quarterly
Results filing with stock exchanges, BSE, NSE
Fact Sheet
Incorporation 1987 Geographical Revenue Mix FY14 Plant Location
Daman Domestic 32% Dadra & Nagar Haveli Exports 68% Installed
Capacities % Product Revenue Mix FY14
Spinning Not Available Yarn 98% Weaving - Fabric 2% Processing -
Garments - Garmenting - Others - Retailing - Total (Rs billion)
7.35
Chairman Mr. Arun Kumar Biyani Managing Director Mr Ajay D.
Biyani Bankers BOB,SBI, UBI, ING Vysya Bank Auditors A. J. Baliya
& Associates
Standalone(Rs. Billion) FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
Operating Income 3.92 5.82 7.35 YoY Growth (%) 2% 48% 26% OPBDIT
0.35 0.48 0.57 Interest Charges 0.18 0.21 0.24 PAT 0.06 0.12 0.15
Earnings per Share 6.67 13.68 16.60 Dividend per Share 1.60 2.00
2.40 Net Fixed Assets 0.77 0.87 0.85 Total Assets 1.77 2.08 2.29
Total Debt 1.11 1.31 1.39 Tangible Net worth 0.50 0.60 0.73
OPBDIT/OI (%) 9% 8% 8% PAT/OI (%) 2% 2% 2% ROCE (%) 16% 22% 22%
Total Debt/Net Worth 2.20 2.17 1.90 TOL/TNW 2.51 2.44 2.15
OPBDIT/Interest 1.96 2.26 2.43 NCA/Total Debt 13% 17% 19% Total
Debt/OPBDITA 3.21 2.71 2.42 Debtor (Days) 35 35 38 Inventory (Days)
53 36 27
ICRA Ratings Long Term NA Short Term NA Outlook NA
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 67.28% FIIs 0.00% DIIs 0.01%
Public: Individuals 27.43% Public: Others 5.28%
Price Performance
Closing Price (Rs.) 52.0 Market Cap (bn) 0.5 52W H/L (Rs.)
70.25/44.3 3M 12M DIL (%) -13% 15% BSE 500 (%) 4% 38% CNX Nifty 500
(%) 4% 39%
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Operating Income 1.31 1.25 1.41 1.85 1.70 1.89 1.85 1.92 1.51
Growth (%) - YoY 24% 42% 64% 29% 51% 31% 3% -11% OPBDIT 0.11 0.11
0.11 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.12 0.13 0.13 PAT 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.05
0.05 0.03 0.02 0.03 OPBDIT/OI (%) 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7% 9% PAT/OI
(%) 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 2% OPBDITA/Interest 2.44 2.29 1.96 2.39
2.75 3.00 2.27 1.88 2.19
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 26
DEEPAK SPINNERS LIMITED
ACML Deepak Spinners Limited (DSL) is promoted by Mr P.K. Daga
and it commenced its operations in 1986 from its unit located at
Baddi in Himachal Pradesh. The company is headquartered in Kolkata
with administrative office in Chandigarh. The Baddi unit commenced
its operations with 14,000 spindles with a dye house and later in
FY 1991, the second manufacturing unit in Guna district of Madhya
Pradesh with an initial capacity of 8,000 spindles was
commissioned. The company current has an installed capacity of
76,752 spindles across the two manufacturing units. The company is
planning to increase the spinning capacity by 14,000 spindles along
with setting up of a dyeing unit with a capacity of 25 MT per day
at a total investment of ~Rs. 0.88 billion, for which the financial
closure is currently underway. The company manufactures polyester,
viscose and acrylic spun yarn. Owing to limited competitiveness of
man-made yarn manufacturers in export market (due to adverse cost
structures) the share of export in overall revenues has remained
low at ~8% during FY 2014. The yarn production during FY 2014 stood
at 25.31 million Kg as against 19.20 million Kg in FY 2013, thereby
resulting in a volume growth of ~32%, which was driven by the
expansion cum modernization undertaken by the company in FY 2014.
Unlike cotton spinning companies which typically stock cotton
during the cotton harvest season for use during the remaining
period, synthetic spun yarn manufactures do not require to main
huge fiber stock due to regular availability during the year. Due
to limited raw material inventory holding, the profitability
margins of DSL were steady in FY 2012 unlike that of cotton
spinning companies who had incurred huge inventory losses in that
year.
Sources: ICRA Research, Companys Annual Report, Quarterly
Results filing with stock exchanges, BSE, NSE
Fact Sheet
Incorporation 1982 Geographical Revenue Mix FY14 Plant Location
H.P., M.P. Domestic 92% Exports 8% Installed Capacities % Product
Revenue Mix FY14
Spinning 76,752 spindles Yarn 99% Weaving - Fabric - Processing
- Garments - Garmenting - Others 1% Retailing - Total (Rs billion)
3.92
Chairman cum Managing Director Mr Pradip Kumar Daga Bankers SBI
Auditors M/s Singhi & Company
Standalone(Rs. Billion) FY 12 FY 13 FY 14
Operating Income 2.80 3.07 3.92 YoY Growth (%) 10% 10% 28%
OPBDIT 0.21 0.30 0.42 Interest Charges 0.09 0.07 0.12 PAT 0.08 0.13
0.12 Earnings per Share 10.58 18.07 16.01 Dividend per Share 0.00
0.00 0.00 Net Fixed Assets 0.71 0.95 1.58 Total Assets 1.60 2.28
2.77 Total Debt 0.66 1.18 1.38 Tangible Net worth 0.58 0.71 0.82
OPBDIT/OI (%) 8% 10% 11% PAT/OI (%) 3% 4% 3% ROCE (%) 14% 19% 18%
Total Debt/Net Worth 1.15 1.67 1.68 TOL/TNW 1.77 2.22 2.36
OPBDIT/Interest 2.43 4.08 3.52 NCA/Total Debt 22% 17% 16% Total
Debt/OPBDITA 3.14 3.90 3.26 Debtor (Days) 31 39 35 Inventory (Days)
57 52 62
ICRA Ratings Long Term NA Short Term NA Outlook NA
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 41.06% FIIs 0.00% DIIs 4.58%
Public: Individuals 51.54% Public: Others 2.82%
Price Performance
Closing Price (Rs.) 42.0 Market Cap (bn) 0.3 52W H/L (Rs.)
53.2/31.05 3M 12M DSL (%) -1% 27% BSE 500 (%) 4% 38% CNX Nifty 500
(%) 4% 39%
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Standalone(Rs. billion) Q1FY13 Q2Y13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14
Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Operating Income 0.68 0.87 0.81 0.72 0.84 1.09
1.02 0.97 1.12 Growth (%) - YoY 7% 21% 8% 25% 25% 26% 35% 32%
OPBDIT 0.05 0.06 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.06 0.10 PAT 0.01 0.02
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04 -0.01 0.02 OPBDIT/OI (%) 8% 6% 13% 12% 11%
13% 12% 6% 9% PAT/OI (%) 2% 3% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4% -2% 2%
OPBDITA/Interest 2.95 3.42 5.51 4.27 4.78 4.52 3.93 1.55 2.51
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ICRA LIMITED P a g e | 27
GINNI FILAMENTS LIMITED
ACML Incorporated in 1982, Ginni Filaments Ltd (GFL) has been
promoted by Jaipuria Family having business interests in textiles
and education sector. GFL commissioned 26,208 spindles in 1990 as
100% export oriented unit to produce combed cotton yarn with
manufacturing plant in district Mathura, Uttar Pradesh. Over the
last decade, the company has entered into value added products like
processed knitted fabric, garmenting (September 2006) in addition
to expanding the spinning capacities. Since GFL has presence from
fiber to garment, part of the yarn manufactured is consumed
in-house by the knitting division and some portion of knitted
fabric produced is consumed by its garmenting division. In
addition, the company has also diversified its product portfolio by
setting up manufacturing facilities for producing non-woven (NW)
fabric (March 2007) and value added consumer products like baby
wipes, surgical gowns etc. The facility is capable of producing
spun-lace fabric made of viscose polyester blends, 100% polyester,
100% viscose and cotton enriched blends etc. With non-woven fabric,
GFL primarily caters to the personal products industry with most
its output being exported and getting consumed for manufacturing of
wipes. In addition to the contract manufacturing for established
brands for wipes, GFL has launched its own brands for baby, beauty
and home care range of wipes. Overall, the product profile of GFL
is diversified but majority of its revenues still emanate from the
commodity products like yarn and non-woven fabric. The revenue
contribution of from high value added products like garments and
wipes still remain low. GFL came out with a public offer of ~Rs.
0.55 billion equity shares in December 2005 for part funding the
expansion and diversification projects. GFL was referred to CDR
cell in February 2009 following large losses in FY2008 and FY2009
on account of losses in yarn division, high leverage on account of
debt funded capex undertaken and forex losses.
Sources: ICRA Research, Companys Annual Report, Quarterly
Results filing with stock exchanges, BSE, NSE
Fact Sheet
Incorporation 1982 Geographical Revenue Mix FY14 Plant Location
UP, Gujarat Domestic 39% Uttarakhand Exports 61% Installed
Capacities % Product Revenue Mix FY14
Spinning 89,808 spindles 1680 rotors
Yarn 53%
Weaving 41 machines Fabric 23% Processing 3600 TPA Garments 16%
Garmenting 3 lac pieces pm Others 9% Non woven 12,000 TPA Total (Rs
billion) 8.74
Chairman Dr. Rajaram jaipuria Managing Director Mr. Shishir
Jaipuria B