IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013 NATIONAL ELECTION TRACKER POLL - JULY 2013 The findings presented here are based on a nationwide survey conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi for IBN and The Hindu. The data for the survey was collected through interviews amongst 19,062 voters spread across 1120 locations of the 267 randomly selected Parliamentary constituencies in 18 States of India. In each of the States were survey was conducted the Parliamentary constituencies were randomly selected using Probability Proportionate to Size sampling technique (PPS). In each of the selected Parliamentary Constituency, assembly segment/s were randomly selected using the systematic random sampling technique. Using the same method four polling stations were selected in each selected assembly segment. In each of the 1120 sampled locations, voters were selected randomly from the most updated electoral rolls using the systematic random sampling technique. A total of about 39,000 randomly selected voters were approached for the interview of which 19,062 could be successfully interviewed. The interview was conducted face to face at the place of residence of the respondent using a standard structured questionnaire in the language spoken and understood by the respondent. The fieldwork for the survey was conducted during last week of June and first week of July. The investigators could not meet the rest of sampled voters due to various reasons like their non- availability at home during survey days, error in the electoral roll or people simply unwilling to be interviewed. The achieved sample size was not uniform in all the 18 States where the survey was conducted. The sample in big States like Uttar Pradesh (3284), Maharashtra (1514), Andhra Pradesh (1681), West Bengal (1397), Bihar (1735), Madhya Pradesh (1439) was bigger compared to some smaller States like Delhi (301), Haryana (246) Chhattisgarh (337), Jharkhand (631) and Assam (575). In Rajasthan the sample (1691) was bigger compared to the proportionality of the size of the State in terms of population. In Tamil Nadu (786) and Kerala (508), the sample was lesser compared to the proportionality of the size of the state in terms of population. The voting question was asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box to ensure secrecy. The estimate of vote shares for different political parties are based on a careful analysis of the respondents’ stated preference of voting for a party as marked on the ballot paper, which carried the elections symbols of all the major political parties in the State. Since all surveys suffer from the problem of underestimation for smaller parties, the estimate of vote shares was made after carefully adjusting the vote share of smaller parties and independents. 1
72
Embed
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election … Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013 The sample is representative at the national level. In the national
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
NATIONAL ELECTION TRACKER POLL - JULY 2013
The findings presented here are based on a nationwide survey conducted by Lokniti, Centre for the Study
of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi for IBN and The Hindu. The data for the survey was collected
through interviews amongst 19,062 voters spread across 1120 locations of the 267 randomly selected
Parliamentary constituencies in 18 States of India. In each of the States were survey was conducted the
Parliamentary constituencies were randomly selected using Probability Proportionate to Size sampling
technique (PPS). In each of the selected Parliamentary Constituency, assembly segment/s were randomly
selected using the systematic random sampling technique. Using the same method four polling stations
were selected in each selected assembly segment. In each of the 1120 sampled locations, voters were
selected randomly from the most updated electoral rolls using the systematic random sampling technique.
A total of about 39,000 randomly selected voters were approached for the interview of which 19,062
could be successfully interviewed. The interview was conducted face to face at the place of residence of
the respondent using a standard structured questionnaire in the language spoken and understood by the
respondent. The fieldwork for the survey was conducted during last week of June and first week of July.
The investigators could not meet the rest of sampled voters due to various reasons like their non-
availability at home during survey days, error in the electoral roll or people simply unwilling to be
interviewed.
The achieved sample size was not uniform in all the 18 States where the survey was conducted. The
sample in big States like Uttar Pradesh (3284), Maharashtra (1514), Andhra Pradesh (1681), West Bengal
(1397), Bihar (1735), Madhya Pradesh (1439) was bigger compared to some smaller States like Delhi
(301), Haryana (246) Chhattisgarh (337), Jharkhand (631) and Assam (575). In Rajasthan the sample
(1691) was bigger compared to the proportionality of the size of the State in terms of population. In Tamil
Nadu (786) and Kerala (508), the sample was lesser compared to the proportionality of the size of the
state in terms of population.
The voting question was asked using a dummy ballot paper and dummy ballot box to ensure secrecy. The
estimate of vote shares for different political parties are based on a careful analysis of the respondents’
stated preference of voting for a party as marked on the ballot paper, which carried the elections symbols
of all the major political parties in the State. Since all surveys suffer from the problem of underestimation
for smaller parties, the estimate of vote shares was made after carefully adjusting the vote share of smaller
parties and independents.
1
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
The sample is representative at the national level. In the national sample Women comprise 44 per cent, 20
percent of the sample consists of Scheduled Caste respondents and 10 per cent of the sample are Adivasis.
The Muslims constitute 11 per cent of the sample and respondents from rural areas are 76 per cent of the
sample. These numbers, when compared with actual Census figures by and large reflect the representative
nature of the sample, although there is an over representation of Dalits and rural respondents and a slight
under representation of Women and Muslims (see Table below).
Table: Sample profile compared to the Census
Categories Share in Survey sample (%)
Actual Share in country’s population (%)
Rural 76 69Women 44 48Muslim 11 13
ST 10 9SC 20 17
Figures for actual proportion of SCs, STs, Women and Rural in the total population of India are from Census 2011. Figures for actual proportion of Muslims in the total population of India are from Census 2001.
The survey was designed and analysed by a team of researchers at the Centre for the Study of Developing
Societies, Delhi. The team included Anuradha Singh, Dhananjai Kumar Singh, K.A.Q.A Hilal, Kanchan
Malhotra, Jyoti Mishra, Nitin Mehta, Shreyas Sardesai and Vibha Attri. The work of computer analysis of
the data was completed by Himanshu Bhattacharya. The conversion of vote share estimate into seat for
alliance and parties both at national and state level was done by Prof. Rajeeva Karandikar of Chennai
Mathematical Institute, Chennai. Prof. Suhas Palshikar and Prof. Sandeep Shastri provided their
suggestions during the entire exercise. The survey was directed at the national level by Sanjay Kumar.
The survey was coordinated by scholars from the Lokniti Network: E Venkatesu (Andhra Pradesh),
(Tamil Nadu), A.K. Verma, Asmer Beg, and Sudhir Kumar (Uttar Pradesh) and Suprio Basu (West
Bengal)
2
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
FINDINGS OF ALL NATIONAL QUESTIONS ASKED IN THE SURVEY
Z1: What is your age? _____
Age group N (%)1: Up to 25 yrs 2741 14.42: 26-35 yrs 5182 27.23: 36-45 yrs 4471 23.54: 46-55 yrs 3225 16.95: 56 yrs. and above 3444 18.1Total 19062 100.0
Z2: Gender
Gender N (%)1: Male 10669 56.02: Female 8393 44.0Total 19062 100.0
Z3: What is your marital status?
Marital Status N (%)1: Married 16001 83.92: Married, gauna not performed 415 2.23: Widowed 806 4.24: Divorced 36 .25: Separated 42 .26: Deserted 65 .37: Never married/Single 1561 8.28: No response 136 .7Total 19062 100.0
Q1: There is much discussion about the Lok Sabha elections scheduled to be held next year. Suppose Lok Sabha elections were to be held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Options N (%) Valid (%)
Valid 01: Congress (INC) 4472 23.5 27.702: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 4410 23.1 27.303: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 998 5.2 6.204: Communist Party of India–Marxist (CPI-M) 784 4.1 4.9
3
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%) Valid (%)
05: Communist Party of India (CPI) 191 1.0 1.206: Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 81 .4 .507: Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) 246 1.3 1.508: YSR Congress 386 2.0 2.409: Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) 33 .2 .210 Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 251 1.3 1.611: Loksatta Party 9 .0 .113: Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) 41 .2 .314: All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) 45 .2 .315: Autonomous State Demand Committee(ASDC) 33 .2 .216: Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) 112 .6 .717: Janata Dal United (JD-U) 482 2.5 3.018: Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) 75 .4 .519: Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 434 2.3 2.720: CPI-ML (L) 5 .0 .021: Aam Admi Party (AAP) 37 .2 .222: Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) 4 .0 .023: United Goan Democratic Party (UGDP) 6 .0 .024: Goa Vikas Party (GVP) 8 .0 .026: Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) 7 .0 .027: Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 31 .2 .229: Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) 2 .0 .031: J & K People’s Democrctic Party (PDP) 5 .0 .032: Jammu Kashmir Panthers Party (JKPP) 2 .0 .034 All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) 43 .2 .335: Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) 71 .4 .436: Jharkhand Vikas Morcha–Prajatantrik (JVM-P) 192 1.0 1.237: Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S) 159 .8 1.038: Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) 8 .0 .139: BSR (Congress) 13 .1 .140: Kerala Congress-M (KC-M) 13 .1 .141: Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 40 .2 .346: Shiv Sena (SS) 96 .5 .647: Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 75 .4 .548: Republican Party of India - A (RPI-A) 19 .1 .151: National People’s Party (NPP) 10 .1 .152 United Democratic Party (UDP) 5 .0 .053: Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSDP) 5 .0 .058: Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 279 1.5 1.760: Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 135 .7 .861: People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) 15 .1 .162: Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) (Simranjit Singh Mann)
2 .0 .0
4
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%) Valid (%)
63: Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) 1 .0 .064: All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)
201 1.1 1.2
65: Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) 119 .6 .766: Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) 31 .2 .267: Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) 9 .0 .168: Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) 6 .0 .069: Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) 3 .0 .070: Indigenous National Party of Tripura (INPT) 6 .0 .072: Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) 9 .0 .173: Samajwadi Party (SP) 639 3.4 4.074: Rashtriya Lok Dal 33 .2 .275: Peace Party (PP) 47 .2 .376: Quami Ekta Dal (QED) 3 .0 .077: Apna Dal (AD) 2 .0 .078: Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) 19 .1 .179: Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (Panwar) (UKD(P)) 5 .0 .080: All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) 410 2.2 2.581: All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) 8 .0 .182: Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 4 .0 .090: Independent 78 .4 .597: Other parties 141 .7 .9Total 16139 84.7 100.0
a: (If ‘fully’ satisfied or ‘somewhat’ satisfied in Q4) You say you are satisfied with the performance of the UPA government. Can you tell me what is the most important reason for your satisfaction?
Options N (%)01: India has developed/development/better infrastructure/industries etc. 653 3.402: Has provided good governance 496 2.603: Has provided stability 155 .804: Law and order has improved 223 1.205: Less corrupt/less corruption 75 .406: Curbed/contained price rise 29 .207: Better electricity supply 187 1.0
7
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)08: Better water supply 103 .509: Better roads 484 2.510: Has developed my area 279 1.511: Has done a lot for farmers/Agriculture/irrigation 75 .412: Has looked after my caste community/interests 21 .113: Has allowed religious freedom of all communities/has maintained religious harmony/secular
30 .2
14: Has done a lot for Hindus 5 .015: Has curbed the religious activities of minorities/ Has not appeased the minorities
10 .1
16: Good foreign policy/Has protected India’s interests/Improved its image in the world
12 .1
17: Good handling of drought situation 13 .118: Has worked for the poor/not just for the rich 96 .519: Better education/schools/colleges 117 .620: Better health facilities/hospitals/medical treatment 43 .221: Created more employment opportunities, jobs 136 .722: Has worked for the youth 56 .323: Efficiency in govt. offices/departments has improved 13 .124: Happy with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh 36 .225: Happy with Sonia Gandhi 31 .226: Like Rahul Gandhi 34 .227: NREGA, rural development 287 1.528: Food security 105 .629: Right to Information 18 .130: Right to Education 81 .431: Social sector programmes 87 .532: Has handled terrorism well 10 .133: Correct approach Maoist/Naxal violence 5 .034: Pro-women/greater focus on women/women’s safety 19 .135: Has worked for the minorities, Muslims, Christians etc 21 .136: Has kept its reservation promise 10 .137: Urban rejuvenation/Urban planning/Cities have grown 11 .197: Any other reason mentioned 261 1.498: Don’t know/Can’t say 2921 15.399: NA 11816 62.0Total 19062 100.0
b: (If ‘fully’ dissatisfied or ‘somewhat’ dissatisfied in Q4) You say you are dissatisfied with the performance of the UPA government. Can you tell me what is the most important reason for your dissatisfaction?
Options N (%)01: India has not developed/it has declined/development has not taken 627 3.3
8
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)place/worsened/bad infrastructure/no industries, investment02: Has provided Bad governance 396 2.103: Not decisive/not strong enough 72 .405 Corrupt/Corruption/scams 1215 6.406: Illegal mining 80 .407: Has not curbed price rise 1273 6.708: Electricity problem 179 .909: Water problem 199 1.010: Bad roads 217 1.111: Has neglected my area/region 110 .612: Has done nothing for farmers/agriculture/bad irrigation/any farmer complaint
63 .3
13: Law and order has worsened 27 .114: Intolerant govt./curbs on free expression and speech 6 .015: Has not looked after my caste community/interests 23 .116: Religious disharmony has increased/attacks on minorities/communalism 1 .017: Bad foreign policy/has failed to protect India’s interests/India’s image in the world has declined
2 .0
18: Has done nothing for Hindus 11 .119: Has appeased the minorities 8 .020: Poor handling of drought situation 19 .121: Has not worked for the poor/neglected the poor/worked only for rich 117 .622: Condition of Education/schools/colleges has worsened 37 .223: Poor health facilities/condition of hospitals has worsened/meadical treatment has worsened
12 .1
24: No employment opportunities, jobs have declined 223 1.225: Has not worked for the youth 50 .326: Efficiency in govt. offices/departments has declined 18 .127: I am unhappy with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh/Silent/Indecisive/No authority
18 .1
28: I am unhappy with Sonia Gandhi/Too much control by her 18 .129: I dislike Rahul Gandhi/No experience/Can’t be PM 9 .030: NREGA not working well, no rural development 64 .331: Non availability of Food/Hunger 21 .132: Right to Information not working well 7 .033: Right to Education not working well 4 .034: No Social sector programmes 37 .235: Has handled terrorism badly/rise in terrorism 9 .036: Wrong approach Maoist/Naxal violence 7 .037: Anti-women/less focus on women/done nothing for women’s safety/crime against women
42 .2
38: Has not worked for the minorities, no welfare of minorities 4 .039: Has not kept its reservation promise 9 .040: Too much reservation/quota 5 .0
9
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)41: Mess in urban areas/no urban plan/cities are choking 5 .097: Any other reason mentioned 266 1.498: Don’t know/Can’t say 2048 10.799: NA 11504 60.3Total 19062 100.0
Q5: How would you rate the economic situation of the country at the moment. Is it Very Good, Good, Soso, Bad or Very Bad?
Options N (%)1: Very Good 794 4.22: Good 3228 16.93: So-so 6173 32.44: Bad 3861 20.35: Very Bad 2021 10.6Don't know/Can't Say/No response 2984 15.7Total 19062 100.0
Q6: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the BJP as the main Opposition party at the Centre over the last four years?
Q7: People have different considerations when they go out to vote. What will be the most important consideration for you when you vote in the next Lok Sabha election – local Candidate, Party or the Prime Ministerial candidate of a party?
Options N (%)1: Local Candidate 5673 29.82: Party 8501 44.63: Prime Ministerial Candidate 2068 10.84: Others 654 3.48: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2167 11.4Total 19062 100.0
10
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q8: People talk about leadership qualities/attributes which the Prime Minister of a country should have. I will read out few such qualities. Please tell me about each of them, how important are these qualities for being the Prime Minister of India - very important, somewhat important or not at all important?
1. Being Young in age Options N (%)1: Very important 8282 43.42: Somewhat important 5462 28.73: Not at all important 2566 13.58: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2753 14.4Total 19062 100.0
2. Being Inclusive & Secular
Options N (%)1: Very important 11430 60.02: Somewhat important 3847 20.23: Not at all important 747 3.98: Don't know/Can't say/No response 3039 15.9Total 19062 100.0
3. Being Decisive
Options N (%)1: Very important 12593 66.12: Somewhat important 3022 15.93: Not at all important 670 3.58: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2777 14.6Total 19062 100.0
4. Being Experienced
Options N (%)1: Very important 13954 73.22: Somewhat important 2424 12.73: Not at all important 547 2.98: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2137 11.2Total 19062 100.0
11
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
5. Being Honest
Options N (%)1: Very important 15408 80.82: Somewhat important 1509 7.93: Not at all important 333 1.78: Don't know/Can't say/No response 1811 9.5Total 19062 100.0
6. Being a Consensus builder
Options N (%)1: Very important 11562 60.72: Somewhat important 3348 17.63: Not at all important 807 4.28: Don't know/Can't say/No response 3345 17.5Total 19062 100.0
7. Being a Good Orator
Options N (%)1: Very important 10760 56.42: Somewhat important 3564 18.73: Not at all important 1038 5.48: Don't know/Can't say/No response 3700 19.4Total 19062 100.0
a: Out of all the leadership qualities that I just read out to you, which is the most important leadership quality that you seek in the next Prime Minister of India?
Options N (%)1: Young in age 2014 10.62: Inclusive & Secular 1439 7.53: Decisive 1976 10.44: Experienced 2701 14.25: Honest 5470 28.76: Consensus builder 872 4.67: Good Orator 545 2.98: None 1387 7.39: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2658 13.9Total 19062 100.0
12
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q9: The Congress-led UPA government has been in power for the last nine years (2004- 2013). If you compare its first term in office (2004- 09) with its second term (2009-13), then in your opinion which one of the two terms has been better?
Options N (%)1: First term better (2004-09) 5329 28.02: Second term better (2009-13) 2397 12.63: Both terms equally bad 4224 22.24: Both terms equally good 2535 13.38: Don't know/Can't say/No response 4577 24.0Total 19062 100.0
Q10: Thinking of how you (or your family, in the case of first time voters) have voted in the last four-five elections, how would you describe yourself? Which party’s traditional supporter are you?
Options N (%)01: Congress (INC) 3579 18.802: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 3148 16.503: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 533 2.804: Communist Party of India–Marxist (CPI-M) 508 2.705: Communist Party of India (CPI) 53 .306: Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 72 .407: Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) 102 .508: YSR Congress 179 .909: Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) 27 .110 Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 216 1.111: Loksatta Party 2 .013: Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) 8 .014: All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) 11 .115: Autonomous State Demand Committee(ASDC) 8 .016: Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) 27 .117: Janata Dal United (JD-U) 255 1.318: Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) 48 .319: Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 324 1.720: CPI-ML (L) 22 .121: Aam Admi Party (AAP) 4 .022: Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) 2 .023: United Goan Democratic Party (UGDP) 5 .024: Goa Vikas Party (GVP) 3 .027: Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 27 .128: Haryana Janhit Congress- BL (HJC-BL) 1 .031: J & K People’s Democrctic Party (PDP) 1 .032: Jammu Kashmir Panthers Party (JKPP) 2 .034 All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) 27 .1
13
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
35: Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) 46 .236: Jharkhand Vikas Morcha–Prajatantrik (JVM-P) 146 .837: Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S) 110 .638: Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) 4 .039: BSR (Congress) 8 .040: Kerala Congress-M (KC-M) 2 .041: Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 18 .146: Shiv Sena (SS) 61 .347: Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 34 .248: Republican Party of India - A (RPI-A) 10 .157: Naga Peoples Front (NPF) 1 .058: Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 243 1.360: Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 121 .662: Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) (Simranjit Singh Mann) 2 .064: All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 96 .565: Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) 90 .566: Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) 6 .067: Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) 6 .068: Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) 9 .069: Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) 2 .070: Indigenous National Party of Tripura (INPT) 1 .073: Samajwadi Party (SP) 385 2.074: Rashtriya Lok Dal 2 .075: Peace Party (PP) 1 .078: Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) 1 .080: All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) 275 1.482: Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 3 .090: Independent 12 .197: Other parties 3675 19.398: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 4499 23.6Total 19062 100.0
Q11: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Manmohan Singh’s performance as the Prime Minister?
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q12: Now I will ask you to compare the two national parties – the Congress and the BJP. In your opinion which of the two parties is better for the following?
a. For good leaders, which party is better?
Options N (%)1: Congress 5813 30.52: BJP 5754 30.23: Both 1897 9.94: Neither 2065 10.88: Don't know/Can't say/No response 3533 18.5Total 19062 100.0
b. For good governance/administration...
Options N (%)1: Congress 5034 26.42: BJP 6254 32.83: Both 1788 9.44: Neither 2217 11.68: Don't know/Can't say/No response 3770 19.8Total 19062 100.0
c. For curbing corruption, which party is better?
Options N (%)1: Congress 3766 19.82: BJP 5673 29.83: Both 1825 9.64: Neither 3577 18.88: Don't know/Can't say/No response 4221 22.1Total 19062 100.0
d. For maintaining religious harmony...
Options N (%)1: Congress 5023 26.42: BJP 4368 22.93: Both 2162 11.34: Neither 2581 13.58: Don't know/Can't say/No response 4927 25.8Total 19062 100.0
15
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
e. For handling economic crises, which party is better?
Options N (%)1: Congress 4381 23.02: BJP 4942 25.93: Both 1812 9.54: Neither 2896 15.28: Don't know/Can't say/No response 5030 26.4Total 19062 100.0
f. For running a coalition govt. at the Centre...
Options N (%)1: Congress 4799 25.22: BJP 4581 24.03: Both 2149 11.34: Neither 2050 10.88: Don't know/Can't say/No response 5483 28.8Total 19062 100.0
g. For countering terrorism, which party is better?
Options N (%)1: Congress 3763 19.72: BJP 5344 28.03: Both 1926 10.14: Neither 2814 14.88: Don't know/Can't say/No response 5215 27.4Total 19062 100.0
Q13: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the ruling government in your state over the few years?
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q14: What will be the single most important issue for you when you vote in the next 2014 Lok Sabha election?
Options N (%)01: Price rise/LPG hike/Diesel/Petrol etc 2152 11.302: Corruption, scams of government 1090 5.703: Employment/Unemployment/Jobs 862 4.504: Development/Vikaas 1761 9.205: Economy/Economic growth 380 2.006: Bad governance of UPA/Vote against UPA 101 .507: Good governance of UPA/Support for UPA 239 1.308: Vote against Manmohan Singh 97 .509: Vote in support of Manmohan Singh 79 .410: Vote for candidate in my area 228 1.211: Vote against candidate in my area 101 .512: Lokpal 161 .813: Vote against Congress 108 .614: Vote for Congress 297 1.615: Vote against BJP 35 .216: Vote for BJP 239 1.317: Vote against Narendra Modi 14 .118: Vote for Narendra Modi 97 .519: Vote against Rahul Gandhi 22 .120: Vote for Rahul Gandhi 54 .321: Need for strong leader/decisive leader 198 1.022: Farmers problems/irrigation/agriculture 167 .923: Condition of roads/highways 181 1.024: Supply of electricity 272 1.425: Supply of drinking water 258 1.426: Drought situation in my area 55 .327: Food security/Food security bill 36 .228: MNREGA 100 .529: Healthcare, hospitals, doctors 46 .230: Education, schools, colleges, teaching, teachers 158 .831: Hunger/malnutrition 42 .232: Poverty/ rich-poor gap/neglect of poor 151 .833: Mining 14 .134: Land acquisition/illegal land deals 10 .135: Foreign policy/relations with countries 7 .036: Terrorism 98 .537: Naxalism, Maoism 18 .138: Minority welfare 34 .239: Appeasement of minorities 4 .040: Ram temple 23 .141: Hindutva 17 .1
17
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)42: Secularism/Communalism 19 .143: Caste consideration 32 .244: Caste violence 16 .145: Industrialisation/lack of industry 15 .146: Against Privatisation 10 .147: For privatisation 7 .048: Against FDI/Foreign investment 11 .149: For foreign investment 2 .050: Wages/salaries/pensions 32 .251: Housing/shelter 79 .452: Transport issues/buses/trains etc. 56 .353: Women’s safety/Crime against women 198 1.054: Stable government/Single party rule 40 .255: Reservation 56 .356: Environment protection 14 .157: Displacement due to development/industries 11 .197: Any Other issue mentioned 746 3.998: Don’t know/Can’t say 7716 40.5Total 19062 100.0
Q15: Now I will read out five statements about Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of them?
a: In your opinion, which one of these five statements that I just read out to you Best describes Prime Minister Manmohan Singh?
Options N (%)1: An honest Prime Minister 4703 24.72: Allowed corruption to flourish all around him 1795 9.43: An experienced administrator 1949 10.24: Lacks communication skills 1110 5.85: little control or authority to take decisions 2645 13.96: Neither/Others 697 3.78: Don't know/Can't say/No response 6162 32.3Total 19062 100.0
19
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q16: Now I will ask you about some important issues. Please tell me about each issue whether they have increased, remained same or decreased during the last four years of UPA-2’s rule?
a. Corruption
Options N (%)1: Increased 13216 69.32: Remained same 2889 15.23: Decreased 916 4.88: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2041 10.7Total 19062 100.0
b. Terrorism
Options N (%)1: Increased 9796 51.42: Remained same 4515 23.73: Decreased 1812 9.58: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2939 15.4Total 19062 100.0
c. Gap between Rich and Poor
Options N (%)1: Increased 8613 45.22: Remained same 6156 32.33: Decreased 1799 9.48: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2493 13.1Total 19062 100.0
d. Employment opportunities
Options N (%)1: Increased 5476 28.72: Remained same 5545 29.13: Decreased 5553 29.18: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2487 13.0Total 19062 100.0
e. Price rise
Options N (%)1: Increased 15366 80.62: Remained same 1776 9.3
20
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q20: Now I will ask you about some more important issues. Please tell me whether they have improved or deteriorated in your locality during the last four years of UPA-2’s rule?
24
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
a. Condition of farmers in your area
Options N (%)1: Improved 4009 21.02: Remained same 6952 36.53: Deteriorated 5728 30.18: Can't Say/Don't know/No response 2372 12.4Total 19062 100.0
b. Relations between religious groups in your area
Options N (%)1: Improved 4990 26.22: Remained same 8421 44.23: Deteriorated 2602 13.78: Can't Say/Don't know/No response 3049 16.0Total 19062 100.0
c. Condition of government schools
Options N (%)1: Improved 6204 32.52: Remained same 6045 31.73: Deteriorated 5467 28.78: Can't Say/Don't know/No response 1347 7.1Total 19062 100.0
d. Condition of roads in your area
Options N (%)1: Improved 6098 32.02: Remained same 5479 28.73: Deteriorated 6344 33.38: Can't Say/Don't know/No response 1141 6.0Total 19062 100.0
e. Condition of govt. hospitals in your area
Options N (%)1: Improved 4763 25.02: Remained same 6371 33.43: Deteriorated 6299 33.08: Can't Say/Don't know/No response 1629 8.5Total 19062 100.0
25
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
f. Safety of women in your area
Options N (%)1: Improved 4959 26.02: Remained same 6481 34.03: Deteriorated 5143 27.08: Can't Say/Don't know/No response 2478 13.0Total 19062 100.0
Q21: Which party do you think is most likely to win from your constituency/area in the next Lok Sabha election?
Options N (%)01: Congress (INC) 3425 18.002: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 3951 20.703: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 436 2.304: Communist Party of India–Marxist (CPI-M) 436 2.305: Communist Party of India (CPI) 20 .106: Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 64 .307: Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) 177 .908: YSR Congress 346 1.809: Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) 29 .210 Telugu Desam Party (TDP) 215 1.111: Loksatta Party 2 .012: People’s Party of Arunachal (PPA) 1 .013: Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) 13 .114: All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) 7 .015: Autonomous State Demand Committee(ASDC) 3 .016: Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) 62 .317: Janata Dal United (JD-U) 362 1.918: Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) 50 .319: Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) 298 1.620: CPI-ML (L) 23 .121: Aam Admi Party (AAP) 21 .122: Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) 2 .023: United Goan Democratic Party (UGDP) 5 .024: Goa Vikas Party (GVP) 2 .025: Goa Suraj Party (GSP) 4 .027: Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) 21 .128: Haryana Janhit Congress- BL (HJC-BL) 6 .029: Himachal Lokhit Party (HLP) 7 .032: Jammu Kashmir Panthers Party (JKPP) 1 .034 All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) 32 .235: Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) 55 .3
26
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)36: Jharkhand Vikas Morcha–Prajatantrik (JVM-P) 171 .937: Janata Dal - Secular (JD-S) 123 .638: Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) 4 .039: BSR (Congress) 10 .141: Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) 16 .146: Shiv Sena (SS) 78 .447: Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) 63 .348: Republican Party of India - A (RPI-A) 32 .257: Naga Peoples Front (NPF) 2 .058: Biju Janata Dal (BJD) 327 1.759: Orissa Jana Morcha (OJM) 2 .060: Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 126 .761: People’s Party of Punjab (PPP) 1 .062: Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) (Simranjit Singh Mann) 1 .064: All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) 199 1.065: Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) 116 .666: Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) 8 .067: Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) 4 .068: Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) 9 .069: Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) 1 .070: Indigenous National Party of Tripura (INPT) 1 .072: Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) 1 .073: Samajwadi Party (SP) 520 2.777: Apna Dal (AD) 1 .078: Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) 1 .079: Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (Panwar) (UKD(P)) 1 .080: All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) 364 1.981: All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) 1 .090: Independent 6 .097: Other parties 51 .398: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 6744 35.4Total 19062 100.0
Q22: Can you tell me which is the most dominant Jaati in your area?
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)780: Other Muslim OBC 27 .1799: Muslim No Caste/Other Muslims 231 1.2800: Jat Sikh 222 1.2810: Khatri/Arora Sikh 36 .2820: OBC SIkh 1 .0830: Sikh No Caste/Other Sikhs 16 .1840: Upper Caste Christians 35 .2850: OBC Christians 4 .0870: Christians No Caste/Other Christians 11 .1880: Other Minorities 7 .0890: Buddhists 3 .0995: Hindu no caste 89 .5998: Can't Say/Don't know/No response 7931 41.6Total 19062 100.0
a: (If answered in Q22) Why is it the most dominant jaati?
Options N (%)01: It is numerically preponderant, present in large numbers 4802 25.202 It is economically influential, land owning, controls resources etc. 1127 5.903: It is occupationally superior 331 1.704: It is Politically powerful 570 3.005: Gave a historical reason 250 1.306: It is relatively high in the ritual hierarchy 82 .407: Through violence and intimidation; Money and muscle power 239 1.308: Through exclusionary practices, commensally restrictions. 53 .309: Educationally superior 267 1.410: Other reasons 297 1.698: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 11043 57.9Total 19062 100.0
Q23: Now I will ask you about a few people. Please tell me for each of them, do you like them or dislike them?
a. Manmohan Singh
Options N (%)1: Strongly Like 5548 29.12: Somewhat Like 6425 33.73: Somewhat Dislike 1674 8.84: Strongly Dislike 1765 9.38: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 3649 19.1Total 19062 100.0
31
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
b. Sushma Swaraj
Options N (%)1: Strongly Like 2825 14.82: Somewhat Like 5663 29.73: Somewhat Dislike 2356 12.44: Strongly Dislike 1559 8.28: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 6659 34.9Total 19062 100.0
c. Anna Hazare
Options N (%)1: Strongly Like 6556 34.42: Somewhat Like 4331 22.73: Somewhat Dislike 1386 7.34: Strongly Dislike 1111 5.88: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 5676 29.8Total 19062 100.0
d. Sonia Gandhi
Options N (%)1: Strongly Like 5570 29.22: Somewhat Like 5259 27.63: Somewhat Dislike 2059 10.84: Strongly Dislike 2460 12.98: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 3714 19.5Total 19062 100.0
e. Nitish Kumar
Options N (%)1: Strongly Like 2947 15.52: Somewhat Like 4187 22.03: Somewhat Dislike 2390 12.54: Strongly Dislike 2080 10.98: Don’t know/Can’t say/No response 7457 39.1Total 19062 100.0
f. Rahul Gandhi
Options N (%)1: Strongly Like 5930 31.1
32
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
a2: (If heard/read in Q26) From where did you hear or read about it? (2nd response)
Options N (%)1: Television 689 3.62: Radio 1015 5.33: Newspaper 3257 17.14: Internet 96 .55: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 730 3.86: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 5602 29.47: Others 800 4.28: Don't remember 1379 7.29: N.A. 5494 28.8Total 19062 100.0
b: (If heard/read in Q26) Have you or your household members benefited from MNREGA in any way?
Options N (%)1: No 7717 40.52: Yes 5838 30.68: Can't say 763 4.09: N.A. 4744 24.9Total 19062 100.0
c: (If heard in Q26) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way MNREGA is being implemented in your area?
Options N (%)1: Satisfied 6063 31.82: Dissatisfied 5247 27.58: Can't say 3008 15.89: N.A. 4744 24.9Total 19062 100.0
37
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q27: How would you rate the following government in terms of corruption - are they very corrupt, somewhat corrupt, not much corrupt, or not at all corrupt?
a: Ruling State government
Options N (%)1: Very corrupt 5173 27.12: Somewhat corrupt 6525 34.23: Not much 2519 13.24: Not at all 1503 7.98: Can't say/Don't know 3342 17.5Total 19062 100.0
b: Congress-led UPA govt. at Centre
Options N (%)1: Very corrupt 6492 34.12: Somewhat corrupt 6113 32.13: Not much 1907 10.04: Not at all 837 4.48: Can't say/Don't know 3712 19.5Total 19062 100.0
Q28: Have you heard/read about the Rashtriya Swasthiya Bima Yojna (RSBY)?
Options N (%)1: Not heard 10924 57.32: Heard 8137 42.7Total 19062 100.0
a1: (If heard/read in Q28) From where did you hear or read about it? (1st response)
Options N (%)1: Television 3958 20.82: Radio 1195 6.33: Newspaper 1370 7.24: Internet 35 .25: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 263 1.46: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 1064 5.67: Others 77 .48: Don't remember 176 .99: N.A. 10924 57.3Total 19062 100.0
38
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
a2: (If heard/read in Q28) From where did you hear or read about it? (2nd response)
Options N (%)1: Television 356 1.92: Radio 664 3.53: Newspaper 2429 12.74: Internet 70 .45: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 388 2.06: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 2887 15.17: Others 261 1.48: Don't remember 627 3.39: N.A. 11381 59.7Total 19062 100.0
b: (If heard/read in Q28) Have you or your household members benefited from Rashtriya Swasthiya Bima Yojna in any way?
Options N (%)1: No 5099 26.82: Yes 2405 12.68: Can't say 633 3.39: N.A. 10924 57.3Total 19062 100.0
Q29: Have you heard/read about the Farm loan waiver scheme of the Central government?
Options N (%)1: Not heard 8922 46.82: Heard 10140 53.2Total 19062 100.0
a1: (If heard/read in Q29) From where did you hear or read about it? (1st response)
Options N (%)1: Television 4765 25.02: Radio 1417 7.43: Newspaper 1720 9.04: Internet 26 .15: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 286 1.56: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 1533 8.07: Others 133 .78: Don't remember 261 1.49: N.A. 8922 46.8Total 19062 100.0
39
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
a2: (If heard/read in Q29) From where did you hear or read about it? (2nd response)
Options N (%)1: Television 517 2.72: Radio 778 4.13: Newspaper 2698 14.24: Internet 60 .35: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 453 2.46: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 3876 20.37: Others 318 1.78: Don't remember 869 4.69: N.A. 9493 49.8Total 19062 100.0
b: (If heard/read in Q29) Have you or your household members benefited from Farm loan waiver in any way?
Options N (%)1: No 6990 36.72: Yes 2350 12.38: Can't say 799 4.29: N.A. 8922 46.8Total 19062 100.0
Q30: Now I will read out a few statements. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one of them?
a: Muslim youth are being falsely implicated in terrorism related cases.
Q31: Now I am going to read out three statements about Naxalism. Please tell me which statement do you agree with most?
Options N (%)1: Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by deploying security forces in large numbers and using maximum force.
4074 21.4
2: Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by providing justice and addressing the grievances of adivasisso that they no longer have reason to support the Maoists
6542 34.3
42
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
3: Naxalism/Maoism should be dealt with by pursuing the possibility of a ceasefire and dialogue with the Maoists
3089 16.2
8: Don't know 5356 28.1Total 19062 100.0
Q32: Have you heard/read about the Central govt.’s scheme of Scholarships for students belonging to minority communities?
Options N (%)1: Not heard 10055 52.72: Heard 9007 47.3Total 19062 100.0
a1: (If heard/read in Q32) From where did you hear or read about it? (1st response)
Options N (%)1: Television 4369 22.92: Radio 1265 6.63: Newspaper 1724 9.04: Internet 23 .15: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 179 .96: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 1074 5.67: Others 147 .88: Don't remember 226 1.29: N.A. 10055 52.7Total 19062 100.0
a2: (If heard/read in Q32) From where did you hear or read about it? (2nd response)
Options N (%)1: Television 378 2.02: Radio 857 4.53: Newspaper 2754 14.44: Internet 84 .45: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 294 1.56: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 3174 16.77: Others 339 1.88: Don't remember 615 3.29: N.A. 10567 55.4Total 19062 100.0
43
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
b: (If heard/read in Q32) Have you or your household members benefited from it in any way?
Options N (%)1: No 5464 28.72: Yes 2852 15.08: Can't say 691 3.69: N.A. 10055 52.7Total 19062 100.0
Q33: Have you heard/read about the Right to Information (RTI) Act?
Options N (%)1: Not heard 11918 62.52: Heard 7143 37.5Total 19062 100.0
a1: (If heard/read in Q33) From where did you hear or read about it? (1st response)
Options N (%)1: Television 4021 21.12: Radio 928 4.93: Newspaper 1396 7.34: Internet 21 .15: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 112 .66: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 467 2.47: Others 27 .18: Don't remember 172 .99: N.A. 11918 62.5Total 19062 100.0
a2: (If heard/read in Q33) From where did you hear or read about it? (2nd response)
Options N (%)1: Television 384 2.02: Radio 629 3.33: Newspaper 2743 14.44: Internet 99 .55: Poster/Banner/Hoarding 379 2.06: Friend/Relative/Neighbour 2122 11.17: Others 90 .58: Don't remember 395 2.19: N.A. 12222 64.1Total 19062 100.0
44
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
b: (If heard/read in Q33) Have you or members of your household used the Right to Information Act ever?
Options N (%)1: No 5423 28.52: Yes 1078 5.78: Can't say 642 3.49: N.A. 11918 62.5Total 19062 100.0
Q34: Which government do you think is more responsible for rising prices – the Central government or your State government?
Options N (%)1: Central government 6440 33.82: State Government 2188 11.53: Both 6983 36.64: Neither 523 2.78: Don't know/Can't say/No response 2928 15.4Total 19062 100.0
Q35: Should the Congress party project Rahul Gandhi as its Prime Ministerial candidate for the next Lok Sabha elections?
Options N (%)1: No 4903 25.72: Yes 7230 37.98: Don't know/Can't say/No response 6929 36.3Total 19062 100.0
Q36: If Lok Sabha elections were to be held tomorrow and Rahul Gandhi has been declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the Congress, in that case would you vote for the Congress?
Options N (%)1: No 6368 33.42: Yes 6305 33.18: Don't know/Can't say/No response 6388 33.5Total 19062 100.0
45
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q37: Should the BJP project Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate for the next Lok Sabha elections?
Options N (%)1: No 4246 22.32: Yes 7881 41.38: Don't know/Can't say/No response 6935 36.4Total 19062 100.0
Q38: If Lok Sabha elections were to be held tomorrow and Narendra Modi has been declared as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the BJP, in that case would you vote for the BJP?
Options N (%)1: No 5557 29.22: Yes 6871 36.08: Don't know/Can't say/No response 6633 34.8Total 19062 100.0
Q39: Now I am going to read out the names of a few proposed schemes, legislations and initiatives of the Central Government. Please tell me, have you heard of them?
1. Food Security Bill
Options N (%)1: Heard 5623 29.52: Not heard 13439 70.5Total 19062 100.0
a1: (If heard) Do you support or oppose them?
Options N (%)1: Support 3931 20.62: Oppose 648 3.48: Don't know 1044 5.59: N.A. 13439 70.5Total 19062 100.0
2. Land Acquisition Bill
Options N (%)1: Heard 4781 25.12: Not heard 14280 74.9Total 19062 100.0
46
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
a2: (If heard) Do you support or oppose them?
Options N (%)1: Support 2438 12.82: Oppose 1263 6.68: Don't know 1081 5.79: N.A. 14280 74.9Total 19062 100.0
3. Direct Cash Transfer (Subsidy in your bank account)
Options N (%)1: Heard 5916 31.02: Not heard 13146 69.0Total 19062 100.0
a3: (If heard) Do you support or oppose them?
Options N (%)1: Support 3935 20.62: Oppose 895 4.78: Don't know 1087 5.79: N.A. 13146 69.0Total 19062 100.0
4. Bharat Nirman
Options N (%)1: Heard 5609 29.42: Not heard 13452 70.6Total 19062 100.0
a4: (If heard) Do you support or oppose them?
Options N (%)1: Support 3755 19.72: Oppose 715 3.88: Don't know 1139 6.09: N.A. 13452 70.6Total 19062 100.0
b: (If heard of Food Security Bill in Q39) How much do you think your stand on Food Security Bill would affect your decision of whom to vote for in the next Lok Sabha election – not very much, a lot or almost entirely?
47
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)1: Not very much/Not at all 1580 8.32: A lot 1710 9.03: Almost entirely 401 2.18: Don't know/Can't say/No response 1931 10.19: N.A. 13439 70.5Total 19062 100.0
Q40: Should there be a retirement age for politicians?
Options N (%)1: No 3152 16.52: Yes 10436 54.78: Don't know/Can't say/No response 5474 28.7Total 19062 100.0
a: (If yes in Q40) At what age should politicians retire?
Options N (%)1: 25-40 years 223 1.22: 41-50 years 848 4.43: 51-60 years 3726 19.54: 61-70 years 3552 18.65: Above 70 years 693 3.68: No response/Don't know 1394 7.39: N.A. 8626 45.3Total 19062 100.0
Q41. If you had to choose between the following leaders as the next Prime Minister of India, who would you choose?
a. Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi - Who should be the next Prime Minister?
Options N (%)1: Rahul Gandhi 5970 31.32: Narendra Modi 6353 33.33: Both 412 2.24: Neither 1887 9.98: Don't know/Can't say 4440 23.3Total 19062 100.0
48
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
b. Narendra Modi or P. Chidambaram- Who should be the next Prime Minister?
Options N (%)1: Narendra Modi 7327 38.42: P. Chidambam 2097 11.03: Both 320 1.74: Neither 3320 17.48: Don't know/Can't say 5998 31.5Total 19062 100.0
Q42. How regularly do you do the following for News – daily, sometimes, rarely or never?
a: Watch TV
Options N (%)1: Daily 7997 42.02: Sometimes 4882 25.63: Rarely 2075 10.94: Never 3209 16.88: Can't say/Don't know 898 4.7Total 19062 100.0
b. Listen to the radio
Options N (%)1: Daily 2327 12.22: Sometimes 4175 21.93: Rarely 2700 14.24: Never 8357 43.88: Can't say/Don't know 1503 7.9Total 19062 100.0
c. Read newspaper
Options N (%)1: Daily 5593 29.32: Sometimes 3594 18.93: Rarely 1984 10.44: Never 6438 33.88: Can't say/Don't know 1453 7.6Total 19062 100.0
49
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
d. Use the internet/go online
Options N (%)1: Daily 926 4.92: Sometimes 1410 7.43: Rarely 1053 5.54: Never 12669 66.58: Can't say/Don't know 3004 15.8Total 19062 100.0
Q43: Do you have the following accounts?
a. Facebook account
Options N (%)1: No 17158 90.02: Yes 1904 10.0Total 19062 100.0
a(a): (If yes) How frequently do you use this - daily, sometimes, rarely or never?
Options N (%)1: Daily 509 2.72: Sometimes 803 4.23: Rarely 352 1.84: Never 83 .48: Can't say/Don't know 157 .89: N.A. 17158 90.0Total 19062 100.0
b. Twitter account
Options N (%)1: No 18235 95.72: Yes 827 4.3Total 19062 100.0
b(a): (If yes) How frequently do you use this - daily, sometimes, rarely or never?
Options N (%)1: Daily 204 1.12: Sometimes 234 1.23: Rarely 189 1.04: Never 63 .38: Can't say/Don't know 137 .7
50
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
9: N.A. 18235 95.7Total 19062 100.0
c: Email account
Options N (%)1: No 17223 90.42: Yes 1839 9.6Total 19062 100.0
c(a): (If yes) How frequently do you use this - daily, sometimes, rarely or never?
Options N (%)1: Daily 423 2.22: Sometimes 723 3.83: Rarely 454 2.44: Never 71 .48: Can't say/Don't know 168 .99: N.A. 17223 90.4Total 19062 100.0
Q44: Suppose a BJP led government comes to power after the next Lok Sabha election, then in that case which leader from the BJP should become the Prime Minister – L K Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Narendra Modi, Arun Jaitley, Rajnath Singh or someone else?
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Q45: Suppose a Cong. led govt. comes to power after the next Lok Sabha, then in that case which leader from the Congress should become the P.M. – Sonia Gandhi, Manmohan Singh, Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, P Chidambaram, A K Antony or someone else?
Options N (%)1: Sonia Gandhi 2215 11.62: Manmohan Singh 2061 10.83: Rahul Gandhi 5646 29.64: Priyanka Gandhi 229 1.25: P. Chidambaram 606 3.26: A. K. Antony 324 1.77: Others 694 3.68: Don't know/Can't say/No response 7286 38.2Total 19062 100.0
Q46: Suppose a non-Cong. non-BJP govt. comes to power after the next Lok Sabha, then in that case which leader should become the P.Mi.–Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Navin Patnaik, Jayalalitha, Sharad Pawar, Mayawati or someone else?
Q47 Now I will list out the names of a few countries. Please tell me according to you how much trust should our country have in them- great deal, some trust, no trust at all?
a. Bangladesh
Options N (%)1: Great deal 3137 16.52: Some 5885 30.93: No trust at all 2878 15.18: Don't know/Can't say/No response 7162 37.6Total 19062 100.0
52
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
b. China
Options N (%)1: Great deal 1486 7.82: Some 4679 24.53: No trust at all 5879 30.88: Don't know/Can't say/No response 7019 36.8Total 19062 100.0
c. Sri Lanka
Options N (%)1: Great deal 2508 13.22: Some 5863 30.83: No trust at all 3294 17.38: Don't know/Can't say/No response 7397 38.8Total 19062 100.0
d. Pakistan
Options N (%)1: Great deal 643 3.42: Some 2065 10.83: No trust at all 10309 54.18: Don't know/Can't say/No response 6044 31.7Total 19062 100.0
e. America
Options N (%)1: Great deal 3016 15.82: Some 5465 28.73: No trust at all 3453 18.18: Don't know/Can't say/No response 7128 37.4Total 19062 100.0
f. Russia
Options N (%)1: Great deal 4251 22.32: Some 4590 24.13: No trust at all 2276 11.98: Don't know/Can't say/No response 7944 41.7Total 19062 100.0
53
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
g. England
Options N (%)1: Great deal 2440 12.82: Some 5097 26.73: No trust at all 3229 16.98: Don't know/Can't say/No response 8296 43.5Total 19062 100.0
Q48: Should the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre get another chance after the next Lok Sabha election?
Options N (%)1: No 7334 38.52: Yes 5992 31.48: Don't know/Can't say/No response 5736 30.1Total 19062 100.0
Z4: Now let us talk about this village/town/city you live in. For how many years have you lived here?
Options N (%)1: Up to 10 years 1348 7.12: 11-25 years 2792 14.63: 26-40 years 2071 10.94: Above 40 years 1111 5.85: Entire life 11421 59.98: No response 319 1.7Total 19062 100.0
Z5: Up to what level have you studied?
Options N (%)0: Non Literate 5270 27.61: Below Primary 1274 6.72: Primary pass/ Middle fail 2343 12.33: Middle pass/Matric Fail 2341 12.34: Matric 2727 14.35: Intermediate/ College no degree 2182 11.46: Graduate or equivalent 1689 8.97: Post Graduate 531 2.88: Professional Degrees and Higher Research 196 1.09: No information 509 2.7Total 19062 100.0
54
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Z5a: Up to what level have your father studied?
Options N (%)0: Non Literate 12000 63.01: Below Primary 924 4.82: Primary pass/ Middle fail 1556 8.23: Middle pass/Matric Fail 1132 5.94: Matric 1375 7.25: Intermediate/ College no degree 701 3.76: Graduate or equivalent 487 2.67: Post Graduate 121 .68: Professional Degrees and Higher Research 63 .39: No information 702 3.7Total 19062 100.0
Z5a: Up to what level have your mother studied?
Options N (%)0: Non Literate 13846 72.61: Below Primary 853 4.52: Primary pass/ Middle fail 1357 7.13: Middle pass/Matric Fail 847 4.44: Matric 766 4.05: Intermediate/ College no degree 331 1.76: Graduate or equivalent 191 1.07: Post Graduate 59 .38: Professional Degrees and Higher Research 29 .29: No information 782 4.1Total 19062 100.0
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Spoken Language N (%)68 Lakher 2 .069 Ao 2 .071 Konyak 6 .072 Bhutia 1 .073 Lepcha 1 .075 Khasi 2 .078 Kokbarak 1 .080 Other Indian Language 515 2.782 Other European Languages 2 .098 Don't Know 16 .199 Not Ascertain/Mentioned 179 .9Total 19062 100.0
Z10: Do you have ration card?
Options N (%)1: Above Poverty Line 7891 41.42: Below Poverty Line 7952 41.73: Antyodaya 870 4.64: Annapurna 148 .85: Do not have 1618 8.56: Had, but lost it 332 1.77: Others 249 1.3Total 19062 100.0
Z11: Do you or any adult member of your household have a bank or post office account?
Options N (%)1: No 5198 27.32: Yes 13279 69.78: Don't know/Can't say/No response 585 3.1Total 19062 100.0Z12: Do you have an Aadhaar card/number?
Options N (%)1: No 11135 58.42: Yes 7927 41.6Total 19062 100.0
67
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
a: (If Yes in Z12) How has the Aadhaar card/number helped you or members of your household?
Options N (%)1: Proof of identity for various purposes 2706 14.22: Can avail/ access govt schemes better – ration, pds, health etc. 989 5.23: Has helped me open a bank account 621 3.34: Less harassment from police, govt. officials, landlord etc. 96 .55: Other benefits 458 2.48: Don't know/Can't say/No response 3056 16.09: N.A 11135 58.4Total 19062 100.0
b: (If No in Z12) Are you planning to apply for an Aadhar number/get one made?
Options N (%)1: No 4374 22.92: Yes 6761 35.59: N.A. 7927 41.6Total 19062 100.0
c: Does anyone in your household (excluding you) have an Aadhaar card?
Options N (%)1: No 9723 51.02: Yes 7623 40.08: Don't know/Can't say/No response 1715 9.0Total 19062 100.0
Z13: Area/Locality
Locality N (%)1: Village 14401 75.52: Town(Below 1 Lakh) 2457 12.93: City (above 1 Lakh) 1272 6.74: Metropolitan city(above 10 lakhs) 931 4.9Total 19062 100.0
Z14: Total number of Adult family member
Number of Adult N (%)0: Blank/NA 455 2.41: One 502 2.62: Two 4835 25.43: Three 3096 16.2
68
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
4: Four 4409 23.15: Five 2356 12.46: Six 1846 9.77: Seven 644 3.48: Eight 441 2.39: Nine and above 476 2.5Total 19062 100.0
Z14: Total number of Children family member
Number of Children N (%)0: Blank/NA 2982 15.61: One 2767 14.52: Two 5700 29.93: Three 3491 18.34: Four 1918 10.15: Five 862 4.56: Six 567 3.07: Seven 219 1.18: Eight 206 1.19: Nine and above 350 1.8Total 19062 100.0
Z15: Type of house where R lives (own or rented)
Type of house N (%)1: Hut/ jhuggi jhopri (if wall materials used are plastic/polythene/mud /grass/leaves/stones/unburnt &there is either no roof or it is made up of same materials used for walls)
1795 9.4
2: Kutcha house (If wall materials include wood/bamboo/mud and roof is thatched/wooden/tin/asbestos sheets etc.)
4684 24.6
3: Kutcha-pucca (If walls are made up of pucca materials such as burnt brick but roof is not concrete/cemented)
3889 20.4
4: Mixed houses (If some rooms are pucca and other rooms are kutcha-pucca or kutcha)
3305 17.3
5: Pucca independent house (Both walls and roofs are made up of pucca materials and built on separate plot)
4444 23.3
6: Flats (If more than one house shares the same plot and the building is at least double storied)
672 3.5
9: N.A. 273 1.4Total 19062 100.0
Z17: Do you or members of your household have the following:
a. Car/Jeep/Van
69
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)1: Yes 1736 9.12: No 17325 90.9Total 19062 100.0
a1: (If yes) What type of Car/Jeep/Van do you have?
Options N (%)1: Small 741 3.92: Medium 690 3.63: Big 77 .49: N.A. 17554 92.1Total 19062 100.0
b: Do you or members of your household have Scooter/Motorcycle/Moped?
Options N (%)1: Yes 7503 39.42: No 11558 60.6Total 19062 100.0
c: Do you or members of your household have Air conditioner?
Options N (%)1: Yes 1173 6.22: No 17889 93.8Total 19062 100.0
d: Do you or members of your household have Computer/laptop?
Options N (%)1: Yes 1695 8.92: No 17367 91.1Total 19062 100.0
e: Do you or members of your household have Microwave?
Options N (%)1: Yes 729 3.82: No 18332 96.2Total 19062 100.0
f: Do you or members of your household have Washing machine?
70
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
Options N (%)1: Yes 2251 11.82: No 16811 88.2Total 19062 100.0
g: Do you or members of your household have Fridge?
Options N (%)1: Yes 5131 26.92: No 13930 73.1Total 19062 100.0
h: Do you or members of your household have TV?
Options N (%)1: Yes 12563 65.92: No 6499 34.1Total 19062 100.0
h1: (If yes) What type of TV do you have?
Options N (%)1: LED/LCD/Plasma 4278 22.42: Traditional 7140 37.59: N.A. 7644 40.1Total 19062 100.0
i: Do you or members of your household have Landline telephone?
Options N (%)1: Yes 2515 13.22: No 16547 86.8Total 19062 100.0
j: Do you or members of your household have a Mobile phone?
Options N (%)1: Yes 15989 83.92: No 3072 16.1Total 19062 100.0
71
IBN-The Hindu-Lokniti (CSDS) National Election Tracker Poll - July 2013
k: Do you or members of your household have LPG gas?
Options N (%)1: Yes 8117 42.62: No 10945 57.4Total 19062 100.0
l: Do you or members of your household have Pumping set?
Options N (%)1: Yes 2908 15.32: No 16154 84.7Total 19062 100.0
m: Do you or members of your household have Tractor?
Options N (%)1: Yes 1161 6.12: No 17901 93.9Total 19062 100.0
Z19: Total monthly household income - putting together the income of all members of the household?
Income N (%)1: Up to 1000 2371 12.42: 1001-2000 2541 13.33: 2001-3000 2646 13.94: 3001-4000 1762 9.25: 4001-5000 1964 10.36: 5001-10000 3990 20.97: 10001-20000 2202 11.68: Above 20000 1587 8.3Total 19062 100.0