IAEA’s Programme on Advanced - International Atomic ... · IAEA’s Programme on Advanced Energy Planning and Economic Studies ... PESS has developed a full suite of analytic tools

IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency

IAEA’s Programme on Advanced

Energy Planning and Economic

Studies

David Shropshire, Section Head

IAEA Planning and Economic Studies Section (PESS)

Technical Meeting on Technology Assessment for SMRs

Chengdu, China, 2-4 Sept. 2013

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Objective: Help Member States build the

capability to perform energy assessments

• Develop sustainable energy strategies.

• Identify the potential contribution of different

technologies, including nuclear power, in meeting

future energy needs.

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Capacity Building for

energy assessment

Information

Dissemination

Analytical Tools

and Training

Technical Assistance for

National Energy Studies

Capacity building has three vectors

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Capacity building can be customized to

meet Member State needs

• Capacity Building for energy and nuclear power

planning at Regional and Sub-regional levels

• (e.g., ECOWAS).

• Support to “new comers” for conducting Pre-

feasibility and Feasibility studies for introducing

nuclear power.

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PESS Capacity Building is “Hands-On”

Currently 40 Active TC Projects in 34 Countries 02 September 2013

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Capacity Building in the Classroom

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eTraining (Distance Learning)

Video Conferences On-Line Tutor

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Distance Learning

OLADE

IAEA

ANENT

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PESS continues to advance new eLearning tools

In 2012, more than 200 people (over 30% of those

trained) were trained using eLearning. 02 September 2013 9

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PESS has developed a full suite of analytic tools

for Energy Assessment

MAED

WASP

MESSAGE

FINPLAN

SIMPACTS

Energy Demand

Energy Mix

Finance

Expansion Plans

Health &

Environmental Impacts

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Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED)

INPUT

• Energy sector data (energy balance)

• Scenario assumptions

• Socio-economic

• Technological

• Substitutable energy uses

• Process efficiencies

• Hourly load characteristics

MAED

OUTPUT

• Useful or final

energy demand by

sector/fuel

• Electricity demand

• Degree of

electrification

• Hourly electric load

• Load duration

curves

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Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives

and their General Environmental impacts

OUTPUT

MESSAGE

INPUT

• Energy system

structure (including

vintage of plant and

equipment)

• Base year energy

flows and prices

• Energy demand

projections (MAED)

• Technology and

resource options &

their techno-economic

performance profiles

• Technical and

policy constraints

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

TW

h

biomass

geoth

hydro

nuclear

gas

diesel

fuel oil

coal

• Primary and final energy mix

• Emissions and waste

streams

• Health and environmental

impacts (externalities)

• Resource use

• Land use

• Import dependence

• Investment requirements

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• Load forecast

• Existing system

• Candidates

• Constraints:

• Reliability

• Implementation

• Fuel

• Generation

• Emissions

INPUT

WASP

OUTPUT

• Build schedule

• Generation

• Costs

• Fuel consumption

• Emissions

Wien Automatic System Planning

Package (WASP)

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Financial Analysis of Electric

Sector Expansion Plans

INPUT

• Investment

programme (=

capacity additions) &

operating expenses

• Economic and fiscal parameters (inflation, escalation, exchange rates, taxes)

• Financial parameters (credits, bonds…)

FINPLAN

For each year:

• Cash flows

• Balance Sheet,

Statement of Sources,

Applications of Funds

• Financial Ratios:

- Working Capital Ratio

- Leverage ratio

- Debt Repayment Ratio

- Global Ratio

OUTPUT

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Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity

Generation

OUTPUT

Case 1 (minimal results):

• uniform world model (UWM)

estimate for total exposure

• quantification of health

impacts

• monetisation of impacts

Case 2 (more output):

• estimates 1 adjusted for

effective stack height

(including H+Vexit+Texit)

INPUT

Case 1 (minimum data requirements):

• pollutant emission rates

• regional population density (< 1000 km)

• source location (urban/rural)

Case 2 (some more data):

• stack characteristics

• local population (<50 km)

Case 3 (even more data):

• local metrological data (wind directions & speed)

• population around the source (10x10 km)

Estimate 1

Estimate 2

Estimate 3

Case 3 (even more output):

• Gaussian plume used for

local exposure and impact

estimate

• estimates 2 adjusted for

more accurate pollutant &

receptor distribution

SIMPACTS

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Energy Models Dissemination

128 countries (majority regular users)

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Follow-up Expert Support

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National Studies

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Regional /Sub-regional Studies

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National Studies

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IAEA Tools and Methodologies for Energy System

Planning and Nuclear Energy System Assessments

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Energy Economics Environmental (3E) Analysis

• Climate change, sustainable energy: NE’s role in Post-

2015 Framework -SDGs & -Kyoto Climate Change regime.

• Coordinated Research Projects on: i) climate impacts on

energy; and ii) financing NE investments.

• Economic and social impacts of NE: development and

testing.

• (New) Role of NE in energy system integration: transport,

load shifts, smart grids, energy storage, as a potential

collaboration with NE-NP (LOADCAPS).

• (New) Multi-criteria comparative assessments: NE versus

shale gas (fraking); CO2 capture and disposal; and

renewables.

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IAEA also supports Socio-economic Development,

Climate Protection and Energy Security

Highlighted Publications

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Finally, Investigate new roles and markets for new

flexible nuclear energy systems

• SMRs in the energy mix can enhance the

penetration from Renewable Energy in the

energy mix;

• Nuclear Cogeneration (heat and power);

• Hybrid Energy Systems.

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Thank you 02 September 2013 25