IAC Review of the IPCC, Contribution to 15 June, 2010 meeting Chris Field Carnegie Institution for Science.

IAC Review of the IPCC,Contribution to 15 June, 2010 meeting

Chris FieldCarnegie Institution for Science

Background and IPCC role• Director, Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science• Professor, Department of Biology, Stanford University• Professor, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford

University• Faculty Director, Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford university• Elected member: US National Academy of Sciences• Elected Fellow: American Association for the Advancement of Science• Elected Fellow: American Academy of Arts and Sciences• 20+ years of research on global carbon cycle, carbon-climate interactions,

climate change impacts, biomass energy• Funding from Carnegie Institution, Federal Agencies, Private Foundations,

once-removed private sector

• CLA, WGII, AR4: Chapter 14, North America• Co-chair, WII, AR5

Opening comment

• An IPCC report is a massive effort• IPCC coordinates the work of thousands of volunteer

scientists• Thousands of scientists contribute to the work of the

IPCC• Quality and accomplishments a wonderful credit to the

commitment and integrity of the contributing scientists• And to the willingness of countries to work with the

IPCC mandate of comprehensive, balanced assessments

Two agendas

• Specific questions from the IAC committee

• Personal reflections on the strengths, weaknesses, and potential of the IPCC

Questions from the committee

• How has the assessment process evolved over the years?

• What are the differences between working groups 1 and 2? • e.g., approach, use of non-peer reviewed literature,

treatment of uncerainties, any pressures to be more conservative or more confident than the data warrants

• What are my thoughts on other issues covered in the committee's statement of task?

• What are plans for the fifth assessment?

Evolution

• Special Report on Regional Aspects to Regional Chapters

• Uncertainty guidance• FAQs

Comparing WGI, II & III

• Organized research agenda: WGI, WGII, WGIII

• Clearly defined expert community: WGI, WGII, WGIII

• Clearly defined literature: WGI, WGII, WGIII• Ability to quantify uncertainty: WGI, WGII, WGIII

• Interactions with other stresses: WGI, WGII, WGIII

• Role for practitioners: WGI, WGII, WGIII

• Relevance to everyday people, ecosystem, & activities:WGI, WGII, WGIII

Treatment of uncertainties

• Confidence and likelihood• Quantitative and qualitative estimates

Highlighting key messages

• Culture of the plenary approval sessions• Needs of each of the stakeholders• Challenge of crafting clear, crisp, accurate text

in big, high-pressure sessions

Plans for the AR5• Effective communication of uncertainty • Integrity • Basic mechanisms• Multiple lines of evidence

• Support for decisions under uncertainty• Concept of a pdf• Risk = probability x consequence• Nature of consensus

Intrinsic uncertainty in climate sensitivity

Roe and Baker Science 2007

Presented as risk

Old view: An interconnected system

Climate ModelsImpacts,Adaptation,

& Vulnerability

IntegratedAssessment

Models

Integrated system approach

Moss et al. Nature 2010

Major themes -- WGI

• Observations• Carbon cycle & biogeochemical feedbacks• Clouds & aerosols• Near-term & long-term climate change• Predictability, projections, commitments,

irreversibility• Sea level• Regional climate processes

Major themes -- WGII • Integration of climate science & climate impacts• Broad range of assessed impacts• Climate change in the context of other stresses• Framing to support good decisions, including

information on risk• Expanded treatment of adaptation• Integration of adaptation, mitigation, &

development• Comprehensive treatment of regional aspects of

climate change

Smith et al. PNAS 2009

Risks t

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stems

Risks o

f Extr

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Weather E

vents

Distrib

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of Impacts

Aggrega

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Impacts

Risks o

f Large

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Discontinuities

5

4

3

2

1

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-0.6

5

4

3

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-0.6

Updated Reasons for Concern, 2009

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Major themes -- WGIII

• Sustainable development• Ethics & equity & climate policy• Integrated risk and uncertainty• Transformation pathways• International/regional/national issues• Investment & finance

Personal reflections

• IPCC operations• Strengths• Challenges• Opportunities

IPCC operations

• Mostly working-group led products• Mostly weak links among, plenary, chair, WG

co-chairs, and secretariat• Limited scope for decisions without plenary

approval

IPCC is especially good at

• Focused assessments• Clear group of experts• Large, cohesive literature in traditional scientific

journals

More challenging topics

• Multi-sector assessments• Regional assessments• Impacts with and without development &

adaptation• Quick responses to rapidly-changing needs

Conceptual challenges

• Finding the right balance between scientific precision and clear communication

• Effectively communicating risk• Interacting and indirect impacts• Sustaining policy relevance without policy

prescriptions

Concluding thoughts

• Special challenges of regional assessments• Insuring coordination among the WGs• Country support• IPCC governance

IAC questionnaire1. What role(s), if any, have you played in any of the IPCC assessment processes?2. What are your views on the strengths and weaknesses of the following steps in the IPCC assessment process? Do you have any

recommendations for improvement?Scoping and identification of policy questions Election of bureau including working group chairs Selection of lead authors Writing of working group reports Review processes Preparation of the Synthesis report, including the Summary for Policy Makers Adoption of report by the IPCC plenary Preparation of any special reports

3. What is your opinion on the way in which the full range of scientific views is handled?4. Given the intergovernmental nature of IPCC, what are your views on the role of governments in the entire process?5. Given that IPCC assessments consider a vast amount of literature, what are your views and suggestions for improvement on the sources of

data and the comprehensiveness of the literature used, including non-peer-reviewed literature?6. What are your views and suggestions regarding the characterization and handling of uncertainty in each of the working group reports and

the synthesis report?7. What is your view of how IPCC handles data quality assurance and quality control and identification and rectification of errors, including

those discovered after publication?8. What is your view of how IPCC communicates with the media and general public, and suggestions for improving it?9. Comment on the sustainability of the IPCC assessment model. Do you have any suggestions for an alternative process?10. Do you have any suggestions for improvements in the IPCC management, secretariat, and/or funding structure to support an assessment

of this scale?11. Any other comments

IAC Statement of taskStatement of Task The Review Committee is requested to perform the following tasks: 2.1. Review the IPCC procedures for preparing assessment reports including, but not restricted to:

i. Data quality assurance and data quality control; ii. Guidelines for the types of literature appropriate for inclusion in IPCC assessments, with special attention to the use of non peer-reviewed literature; iii. Procedures for expert and governmental review of IPCC materials; iv. Handling of the full range of scientific views; and v. Procedures for correcting errors identified after approval, adoption and acceptance of a report.

2.2. Analyze the overall IPCC process, including the management and administrative functions within IPCC, and the role of UNEP and WMO, the United Nations system and other relevant stakeholders, with a view to strengthen and improve the efficiency of the assessment work and effectively ensure the consistent application of the IPCC Procedures.

2.3. Analyze appropriate communication strategies and the interaction of IPCC with the media to ensure that the public is kept apprised of its work.

2.4. Prepare a report on the outcome of the activities referred to above, including:i. Methodology of the report preparation and measures taken to ensure high quality of the report findings;ii. Recommendations for amendments to the IPCC procedures; iii. Recommendations concerning strengthening the IPCC process, institutions and management functions; iv. Any other related recommendations; andv. Outline of a plan for the implementation of recommendations.