I-SEE Bath, 15.11.11 Brenda Boardman Emeritus Fellow ECI University of Oxford.

I-SEE

Bath, 15.11.11

Brenda Boardman

Emeritus Fellow

ECI

University of Oxford

Symptoms

• Debt:– Elderly don’t get into debt: know they can

never repay– Families will get into debt, to keep babies/

children warm

• Disconnections – strongly driven by utility policy. Always an alternative

GB disconnections

Excess winter deaths - England Year Excess deaths

1999-2000 45,650

2000-1 23,290

2001-2 25,790

2002-3 22,620

2003-4 21,930

2004-5 29,740

2005-6 23,740

2006-7 22,380

2007-8 23,290

2008-9 34,200

2009-10 24,000

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Expodata/Spreadsheets/D7089.xls

Vulnerable

• Misleading descriptor

• 71% of 2008 English households contained someone who is:– elderly– Young (<16)– disabled or– long-term sick

Definition

• A household is in fuel poverty if it needs to spend more than 10% of its income on fuel to maintain a satisfactory heating regime and all other energy services

• 10% = UK definition• Twice the median (as a proportion of

expenditure) = possible EU definition

Affordable warmth

10% of income for all

energy services

Energy efficiency

of the dwelling

24 hour mean

internal temperature

of 18°Cand all other

energy services

} {

Fuel poverty, England

$80/b

$50/b

$20/b

Today?

Hills review - debate

Household expenditure on fuelUK 2007

30% of households with lowest

incomes

70% other

Average

Weekly fuel expenditure

£12.73 £19.14 £17.22

% of all expenditure on fuel

6.1% 3.4% 3.8%

Income + housing

Low income High incomeEnergy

inefficient housing

Energy efficient housing

Heating costs: low-income, pensioner couple

Present £6.65

For adequate warmth

a) existing poorly insulated home

• poor heating system £16.15 + £9.50

• efficient heating system £10.35 + £3.70

b) well insulated home

• efficient heating system £5.65 - £1.00

Housing energy standards:fuel poverty and climate

change

Transforming housing

Fuel poor pensionersEngland 2008

Over 60 with children others

Fuel poor households Pensioner households

24% in fuel poverty

49%

Identification

• Simple method, for the doorstep, a ‘passport’, eg– receipt of a state benefit / pension

• Sophisticated method of monitoring• Political decisions first, eg

– priority for families or pensioners?– equivalisation– role of rent

Fuel prices and cost of government policy – 2008/9

RO (UK)

CERT (GB)

EUETS (UK)

Total

Electricity customers

£11 £19 £31 £61

Gas customers

NA £19 NA £19

Total £80

Real problem: fuel prices

• World fuel prices rising, consistently

• Government policy paid through utility bills

• Liberalised market worsens fuel poverty

• utilities focus price reductions on active, profitable market = rich

• Poor left paying highest prices

= Stronger regulation, more government concern for fuel poverty and new tariffs

Carbon emission factors

gCO2/kWh Gas 190 LPG 250 Oil 270 Coal 290 Electricity - 2008 Electricity -2030

540

50

SAP and non-SAP

Energy (kWh)

£ Carbon

SAP: space and water heating, fixed lighting

85% 58% 68%

Non-SAP: other lights, all appliances

15% 42% 32%

Synergies: fuel poverty and climate change

In UK:

• Poorest people concentrated in worst housing

• Upgrade to super energy-efficient, low-carbon housing

• Fuel poverty = SAP 81 @ 1,200,000 pa

• Climate change = SAP 100 @ 680,000 pa

Low-carbon zones

• One per local authority

• Where fuel poor concentrated

• Ensure every home out of fuel poverty by 2013, SAP 81

• Do street-by-street

• CHP + waste / community schemes

Who pays?

• Substantial costs

• At no capital cost to the poor

• Cannot identify the fuel poor

• No need to subsidise the rich

• Through fuel prices?

• Through income tax?

• Release the equity in the building?

Chesshire Lehmann Fundwww.chesshire-lehmann.co.uk

Thank you

www.eci.ox.ac.uk