I Dewa Gede A. Junnaedhi Weather and Climate Prediction Laboratory Bandung Institute of Technology.

I Dewa Gede A. Junnaedhi

Weather and Climate Prediction Laboratory

Bandung Institute of Technology

WCPL Members

• Dr. Tri Wahyu Hadi (Head)• Nurjanna Joko T. (now at Kyoto Univ.)• I D. G. A. Junnaedhi• Noersoemadi (Master student at ITB)• M. Ridho S. (will begin master study at ITB)• 7 undergraduate students (incl. Gilang P.)

• Developed NWP system in ITB

Global model output : NCEP-GFS : 1° x 1°, 6 hour interval, 24 pressure levels, up to 48-hour prediction

(Figure by JMA) 27km x 27 km

9 km x 9 km

Downscaled using mesoscale models(MM5, WRF and NHM) :27 km x 27 km (domain 1), 9 km x 9 km (domain 2), 3 hour interval, 31 vertical level, 48-hour prediction

Nimbus server :(downloading data and webserver)⁻ Dual Opteron @ 1.4 GHz⁻ 2 GB memory⁻ Nearly 2.5 TB storage

Typhoon cluster :(for running model)- 6 nodes Intel Quad Core @ 2.4 GHz- 4 GB memory each- Nearly 1.5 TB storage

NHM Forecast

WRF Forecast

MM5 Forecast

• Website screenshots

Wind driven wave forecast using MM5 output and Wavewatch III model

Weather on GoogleMap for few city over Indonesia

4-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (1)4-MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (1)

(Figure by JMA)

Global model output : NCEP-GFS : 1° x 1°, 6 hour interval, 24 pressure levels, case study of Feb. 2008, initial at 1200 UTC, up to 48-hour prediction

Data initial

CCAM

27km x 27 km

9 km x 9 km

donwscale

Donwscale(MM5, WRF,and NHM)

Initial &boundarycondition

MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (2)MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (2)

AWS observations

C B

A

MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (3)MODEL INTERCOMPARISON (3)

WRF MM5 NHM CCAM (C48)

Field Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 1 Domain 2 Domain 1 Domain 2Meridional Grid

Dimensions280 193 280 193 280 193

Global (48x48x6)

Global (48x48x6)Zonal Grid

Dimensions145 94 145 94 145 94

Vertical Level 31 31 32 32 32 32 18 18Grid Resolution 27 km 9 km 27 km 9 km 27 km 9 km 27km 9km

Parent Grid Ratio 1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3.33Parent time step

Ratio1 3 1 3 1 3 1 3.33

Nest Type 1 - Way2–Way(online)

1 - Way2-Way(online)

1 - Way2-Way

(Offline)

Streched - Schmidt Transf.

Streched - Schmidt Transf.

(Offline)

Explicit Moisture Scheme

WSM 3-class simple ice scheme

WSM 3-class simple ice scheme

Graupel (Reisner2)

Graupel (Reisner2)

Simplified Graupel

Simplified Graupel

- -

Microphysics Rotstayn Rotstayn

Longwave Radiation physics

RRTMscheme

RRTMscheme

RRTMscheme

RRTMscheme

GSM0103 GSM0103GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf

)

GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf

)

Shortwave Radiation physics

GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf

)

GFDL (Fels-Schwarzkopf

)Planetary Boundary

Layer SchemeMRF

schemeMRF

schemeMRF

schemeMRF

schemeYamada-Mellor

Yamada-Mellor

Monin-Obukhov

Monin-Obukhov

Cumulus SchemeGrell

DevenyiKain-Fritsch Grell

Kain-Fritsch 2

Kain-Fritsch Kain-FritschConvjlm – McGregor

(2003)

Convjlm – McGregor

(2003)

Model Set-up

CURRENT RESULTS (1)CURRENT RESULTS (1)

Up to 24-hour prediction, 3-hourly interval, Feb. 2009

D1 D2

D1 D2

D1 D2

D1 D2

CURRENT RESULTS (2)CURRENT RESULTS (2)

CURRENT RESULTS (3)CURRENT RESULTS (3)

D1 D2

CURRENT RESULTS (4)CURRENT RESULTS (4)

D1 D2

CURRENT RESULTS (6)CURRENT RESULTS (6)

CCAM has different phase error for the first 24-hour prediction

Root Mean Squared Vector Error

day time

Bandung Sumedang

Lampung Timur Lampung Selatan

phase different

CURRENT RESULTS (8)CURRENT RESULTS (8)Rainfall Prediction

First 24-hour Second 24-hour