Hypothetically Coherent - Liz Keogh

Liz Keogh@lunivorehttp://lizkeogh.com

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“…a fundamental assumption……a certain level of

predictability and orderexists in the world.“

- Dave Snowden,“A Leader’s Frameworkfor Decision Making”,

Harvard Business Review

The Innovation Cycle

CommoditiesDifferentiators

Build on

Spoilers

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Cynefin

Obvious

ComplicatedComplex

Chaotic

With thanks to

David Snowden and Cognitive Edge

sense,

categorize,

respond

sense,

analyze,

respond

probe,

sense,

respond

act,

sense,

respond

Estimating Complexity

5. Nobody has ever done it before

4. Someone outside the org has done it before (probably a competitor)

3. Someone in the company has done it before

2. Someone in the team has done it before

1. We all know how to do it.

A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…

A way of knowing it’s succeeding

A way of knowing it’s failing

A way of dampening it

A way of amplifying it

Coherence

Coherence

A realistic reasonfor thinking the probe

might have apositive impact

Can you give me an example?

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In high uncertainty…

…scenarios (and plans)provide

coherence,not

tests

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A Safe-To-Fail Probe has…

A way of knowing it’s succeedingA way of knowing it’s failing

A way of dampening itA way of amplifying it

Coherence A way of avoiding failure completely

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“That won’t work because…”

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Large Hospital : 45 babies a daySmall Hospital : 15 babies a day

Both hopsitals recordthe number of daysthey got more than 60% boys

Who recorded more days?A) The big hospitalB) the small hospitalC) both about the same (within 5%)

Correlated in Retrospectn

t

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Viagra photo by Tim Reckmann, CC SA 3.0Walkman by Esa SorjonenSpace invaders by Bago Games, CC BY 2.0Car Genie copyright AA

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With kind permission of Dr Lucy King (pictured)http://elephantsandbees.com

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Liz [email protected]@lunivorehttp://lizkeogh.com