Hypotheses 9/4/2012
Jan 05, 2016
Hypotheses
9/4/2012
Readings
• Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock)
• Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31)
OPPORTUNITIES TO DISCUSS COURSE CONTENT
Office Hours For the Week
• When– Wednesday 11-1– Thursday 8-12– And by appointment
Course Learning Objectives
1. Students will learn the research methods commonly used in behavioral sciences and will be able to interpret and explain empirical data.
2. Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design.
VARIABLES
Turning things empirical
1. We experience it2. We Define it3. We give it value (operationalize)4. We develop a hypothesis to explain/predict
what we experienced in step 1
The Relationship Between them
UNITS OF ANALYSISHow we measure our Variables
Units of analysis
• The unit about which information is collected and that provides the basis of analysis
• Each member of a population is an element
• Why they are important?
Individual Unit
• The lowest form of data
• People, congressmen, presidents, etc
Aggregate Data
• A collection of individual level units
• Often measured in percentages
• Footprints
The Poor over Time
Immigration over time
The Problem of Access
FALLACIES MADE WITH DATA
Ecological Fallacy
• this arises when an aggregate/ecological level phenomenon is used to make inferences at the individual level.
• Taking statewide data and applying to individuals
• Does everyone in MS go to church?
The Exception Fallacy
• taking one person's behavior, attributes, etc and applying it to an entire group
• Using 1 example to define group behavior
Examples from Texas
HYPOTHESES
What Is a Hypothesis
• An educated Guess
• These are explicit Statements
• They Try to explain a relationship
• But they are only tentative until tested
The Null Hypothesis
• The Statement of No Relationship
• What we want to disprove
• The Basic start of research
H0
Correlative Hypothesis
• “there is a relationship between x and y”
• A very weak statement
Positive Hypothesis
• A directional hypothesis
• “as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable increases”
Positive Relationship
Negative Relationship/Hypothesis
• “As the independent variable increases, the dependent variable decreases”
• Also called an inverse hypothesis
An Example
Logarithmic
• Y=log(x)
• The dependent variable changes rapidly, followed by less change
An Example
Curvilinear
• The Relationship forms a curve!
• The dependent variable increases to a point, and which point it begins to decrease
Fuel Efficiency
Hulk Hogan
• Roddy Piper (4:44)
• King Kong Bundy (2:56)
More
Stating a hypothesis
There is a _____(direction)________relationship
between ________and ____________
CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD HYPOTHESES
Good Hypotheses are Empirical
• Something that we can Measure
Good Hypothesis are
Generalizable• Apply to more than one
case
Specific• Always State a direction
• Always identify the iv and the d.v.
• Avoid the correlative hypothesis
Good Hypotheses are Plausible
• There needs to be a Real world justification for why they are related
• If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit
Good Hypotheses are Testable
• You have to be able to test your hypothesis or it is just speculation.
Non-Tautological
• Your independent and dependent variables are separate concepts
A CAUSAL HYPOTHESISA Test of Scientific Knowledge
What is a causal hypothesis?
• The Boldest Hypothesis out there
• A relationship that will occur 100% at all times, no exceptions
• Difficult to Prove
To Prove a Causal Hypothesis
1. A Change in the Independent Variable will always cause a change in the dependent variable.
2. A change in X always precedes a change in Y
3. X is necessary and sufficient to cause a change in Y
Causality is the heart of scientific knowledge!