Strategy | Energy | Sustainability Hydrogen & Fuel cells – From current reality to 2025 and beyond Future Powertrain Conference Adam Chase, Director 1 st March 2017
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Strategy | Energy | Sustainability
Hydrogen & Fuel cells – From current reality to 2025 and beyond
Future Powertrain Conference
Adam Chase, Director
1st March 2017
E4tech perspective
• International consulting firm, offices in UK and Switzerland
• Focus on sustainable energy
• Established 1997, always independent
• Deep expertise in technology, business and strategy, market assessment, techno-economic modelling, policy support…
• A spectrum of clients from start-ups to global corporations
Today
• Drivers of change
• Energy system transition
• A plan for hydrogen
Not just an esoteric debate
“Moody's is increasing its focus on the risks related to climate
change for auto manufacturers globally. While we do not
anticipate any immediate rating changes, we are monitoring rising risks in this sector for possible future implications”
Transport is now the largest GHG emitting sector in the UK, so is in the spotlight
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Source: Committee on Climate Change Oct.2016 UK Climate action following the Paris Agreementhttps://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/UK-climate-action-following-the-Paris-Agreement-Committee-on-Climate-Change-October-2016.pdf
Road transport, especially LDV will have to make strong CO2 reductions
6
Source: SMMT 2-3 cycle plans Adoption
95gCO2/km
ZEV capable LDV uptake according to CCC
Strategy | Energy | Sustainability
So we know where we are and where we would like to get to. The question is HOW?
Automotive changes must be seen in the context of the energy system
8
1983 20502017
34 years 33 years
Energy system perspective
Automotiveperspective
Transport energy transition is unlikely to be simple
9
UK Automotive Council Energy & Fuels Consensus Roadmap
Conventional, sector specific approach to energy transition could miss implications of system wide change
10
Conventional thinking
Work through GHG reduction challenges in order of increasing difficulty:
1. Electricity
2. Heat
3. Industry
4. Transport
System thinking
Least cost optimised pathways that recognise key features of low carbon energy:
• Inflexible demand for energy services
• Long life assets
• Technology uncertainty
• Lock-in and path dependencymarksremarksdotorg.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/systems-thinking.jpg
Strategy | Energy | Sustainability
From a system wide perspective, hydrogen can play a strong role
The 2016 UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Roadmap shows how hydrogen could fit across the energy system …
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Bulk centralised H2
production
Hydrogen pipeline networks and use in
domestic and commercial heat
Non-road transport
H2 production and distribution for
transport
Road transport
Portable FCsStationary FC systems with portable fuels
Large stationary power & CHP
H2 use in industry and for liquid fuel
production
Small stationary
power & CHP
Services to energy networks
AP
PLI
CA
TIO
NS
PR
OD
UC
TIO
N, D
ISTR
IBU
TIO
N
AN
D S
ERV
ICES
Hydrogen end-use
Hydrogen supply
UK Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Roadmap: http://bit.ly/2dVJBu9
Roadmap
… and which steps are necessary to 2025 and beyond
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Roadmap
Benefits to assess
• Potential for low carbon heating
• Avoiding grid upgrading especially the costs of electricity to meet peak heating
• Synergies with renewable electricity
• Customer acceptance compared with heat pumps, district heating etc
• Synergies with hydrogen use in transport & industry
Hydrogen could be a key component of the future transport fuel mix
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• Air quality - no pollution when used in fuel cells and very low emissions in an ICE
• Low carbon today and zero carbon in the future – wide range of options to produce hydrogen with very low emissions
• No fundamental changes in vehicle operation – once a nationwide network is established, no operational compromise compared with current ranges and refuelling times
• An option for larger vehicles – very few options for zero or ultra-low emission driving for trucks, buses, marine and rail
• Affordable (at scale) - vehicles can be offered with the same ownership cost or with a slight ownership cost premium once vehicles can be produced at scale (100,000s of vehicle per year for passenger cars).
Roadmap
|
The roadmap includes specific UK actions for enabling fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen refuelling
2016-2020 2020-2025 2025 onwards
UK
mar
ket
dev
elo
pm
ent
UK
act
ion
s
~30-65 HRS deployed by 2020
Dedicated rollout programme for UK-produced vehicles FC RE-EVs, minicars, hydrogen buses and trucks
Beginning of commercialisation of UK FC system and vehicle solutions for <20kW and heavy duty applications
Programme to develop UK <20kW FC systems & vehicles
UK Fleet of 50-100 buses
UK Fleet of ~500s FC REEV and microcars
UK Fleet of ~100 OEM FCEVs
> 150 HRS deployed by 2025
UK Fleet of several 100s buses
UK Fleet of several 1,000s FC REEV and microcars
UK Fleet of several 10,000s OEM FCEVs
Several 10s to 100s stations per annum
> 100 FC buses per annum
> 1,000 FC REEV and microcar per annum
> 10,000 FCEVs per annum
Programme to support the development of heavy vehicles using hydrogen
FC market reaches a critical size allowing unsubsidised deployments
Secure policy continuity for FC in transport applications (across national and local governments); coordination with EU efforts on clean mobility
Resolve any outstanding HRS permitting, vehicle certification and other regulatory constraints to reduce barriers to larger-scale deployments
Roadmap
Targeted support for early fleet roll-out (<1,000 vehicles via EU, regional and national fleet funds)
Inclusion of hydrogen vehicles in plug-in grant type scheme
Coordinated procurement activities for fleet vehicles
15
|
Two main aims: Ensuring UK-produced hydrogen vehicles and preparing the UK market
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Ensuring UK-produced hydrogen vehicles
• Target vehicles with an attractive customer offer, relatively small production volume (100s-1,000s units/year) which play to the UK’s manufacturing strength
Encourage UK-based OEMs in the truck, large van and bus sector to work with partners to develop hydrogen-fuelled options
Support UK companies developing vehicles using small fuel cell stacks (as range-extenders or in lightweight small cars)
Preparing the market for the introduction of hydrogen-fuelled vehicles
• Expansion of the hydrogen refuelling network – regional clusters and work with fleets
• Support for vehicle deployment – Plug in grant scheme, procurement, EU and regional funding
Roadmap
Current UK activities are consistent with the Roadmap
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Shell hydrogen refuelling station at Cobham services on the M25, opened February 2017. Source: ITM Power
Rasa fuel cell car. Source: Riversimple
Science & Technology Committee hydrogen inquiry, announced Feb 2017
In summary
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• An energy system transition is coming
• Vehicle fuels and powertrains should be seen as part of the energy system
• This transition may be faster, deeper and directionally different to currently envisaged pathways
• The “best” solution for the energy system might not be “best” for individual sectors
• Some energy system pathways feature widespread hydrogen uptake, which would affect transport
• The UK Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Roadmap sets a path for UK to 2025
• Near term will see several options explored at small scale. These could scale up if successful
E4tech – strategic thinking in sustainable energy
For more information please visit our website:
www.E4tech.com
Or contact us in London or Lausanne:
E4tech (UK) Ltd
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United Kingdom
+44 (0)20 3008 6140
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www.E4tech.com
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