International Journal of Energy and Statistics Vol. 1, No. 3 (2013) 205–214 c Institute for International Energy Studies DOI: 10.1142/S2335680413500142 HYDROELECTRIC ENERGY FORECAST KEILA MARA CASSIANO ∗,†,¶ , LUIZ ALBINO TEIXEIRA J ´ UNIOR ‡ , RAFAEL MORAIS DE SOUZA ∗ , MOIS ´ ES LIMA DE MENEZES ∗,† , JOS ´ E FRANCISCO MOREIRA PESSANHA § and REINALDO CASTRO SOUZA ∗ ∗ Electrical Engineering Dept, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro — PUC-Rio, Rua Marquˆ es de S˜ ao Vicente 225, G´ avea, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 11451-090, Brazil † Statistics Dept., Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Fluminense Federal University — UFF, Rua M´ ario Santos Braga S/N, Campus Valonguinho, Niter´ oi, RJ, 24020-140, Brazil ‡ Latin American Institute of Technology, Infrastructure and Territory, Federal University of Latin American Integration — UNILA, Av. Tancredo Neves,6731, Bloco — 4, Foz do Igua¸ cu, PR, 85867-970, Brazil § Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Rio de Janeiro State University — UERJ, Rua S˜ ao Francisco Xavier, 524, Maracan˜ a, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 2055-013, Brazil ¶ [email protected] Received 5 August 2013 Revised 2 September 2013 Accepted 5 September 2013 Published 28 September 2013 The aim of this paper is to propos e a new methodo logy for hydroelect ric energy forecast- ing. A new approach for selection of the number of eigenvalues in SSA is also proposed. In this paper it is proposed the hierarchical clustering associated to PCA and int egrat ed to ARIMA models. The proposed approach is applied to forecast the affluent flow in a hydroelectric plant located at Parana River Basin, Brazil. As a matter of fact, modeling suc h series is quite important for the optimal dispat ch of the energy generatio n in Brazil due to the heavy participation of hydro plants in the country (over 85% of the generated energy comes from hydro plants). Keywords : Affluen t flow; forecast; hierarchical clust ering; singular spectru m anal ysis; ARIMA. I n t . J . E n e r g y S t a t . 2 0 1 3 . 0 1 : 2 0 5 2 1 4 . D o w n l o a d e d f r o m w w w . w o r l d s c i e n t i f i c . c o m b y D r . P a u l o A l m e i d a o n 0 3 / 2 3 / 1 4 . F o r p e r s o n a l u s e o n l y .