HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING AND FORECASTING ON THE ESTUARY OF SANTOS- SÃO VICENTE-BERTIOGA RUIZ, M.S. 1,2 ; HARARI, J. 1 ; RIBEIRO, R.B. 2 ; SAMPAIO, A.F.P. 2 ¹Instituto Oceanográfico da Universidade de São Paulo 2 Núcleo de Pesquisas Hidrodinâmicas – NPH-UNISANTA INTRODUCTION Storm surge is a sea level rise driven by intense atmospheric pressure and temperature gradients, generally associated to low pressure centers in the surface of the atmosphere (RESIO and WESTERINK, 2008). Due to the increase in mean sea level, as well the increase of the frequency and intensity of these extreme events, it is evident the need of comprehension of oceanographic processes at coastal regions through scientific research, in order to provide technical and scientific background for the best solution of problems related to coastal management (CHURCH et al., 2013). For a better understanding and representation of the local hydrodynamic processes, computational modeling constitutes an excellent methodology (NPH, 2017). The objective of this study is to characterize and simulate storm surge events in the Estuary of Santos-São Vicente- Bertioga, in order to provide better results of hydrodynamic forecast in this estuary. MODEL DOMAIN The Estuary of Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga is located in the Metropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, on the coast of the State of São Paulo (Figure 1). This metropolitan region is formed by nine municipalities: Santos, São Vicente, Praia Grande, Mongaguá, Guarujá, Peruíbe, Itanhaém, Cubatão; and Bertioga. The region of Baixada Santista presents high demographic density, due to its geographic location and socioeconomic factors. The hydrographic system of the region under study can be subdivided into three estuaries and one bay: Estuary of Bertioga Channel; Estuary of Santos Port Channel; and Estuary of São Vicente, the last two with their mouth in Santos Bay. Figure 1 – Geographic location of the Estuary of Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga METHODOLOGY AND EXPECTED RESULTS This project will be divided in two steps: Analysis of current and sea level data; and numerical modeling. Data of sea level, velocity and direction of the currents were obtained from São Paulo Pilots local stations (Figure 2), and provided to NPH-UNISANTA. In addition, data from Companhia Docas do Estado de São Paulo (CODESP) will be used. There is also the possibility of adding data from other sources, in order to characterize the local physical processes and increase the representativeness of the hydrodynamic model, with emphasis on storm surge events. Data analysis will be carried out through MATLAB® software; propagation times and differences in tidal amplitudes in the channels and estuary will be relevant variables to consider in this study. Figure 2 – Geographic location of the São Paulo Pilots local stations The mean tidal amplitudes in the Santos Port Channel are 1.23m and 0.24m, respectively in spring and neap tides. The tide of the estuarine channels is irregular, of mixed and semidiurnal character, with main period of 12h42min. The cold fronts are frequent in the region - mainly in the winter - and produce changes in the mean sea level, which can exceed 0.5m (HARARI et al., 1999). According to Camargo and Harari (1998), there is convergence and divergence of the flood and ebb currents of São Vicente and Bertioga Channels, where tidal waves meet, propagating from their extremities. After data analysis, a set of hydrodynamic numerical models will be implemented, in order to simulate the local hydrodynamic storm surges, through a technique named downscaling, which consists of information transfer from the large scale grid to a local scale grid. The chosen model for this project is MOHID, as this model runs operationally through the NPH and Hidromod partnership. Nonetheless, model grids and meteorological forcing are not yet defined. The results after the implementation, calibration and validation of the hydrodynamic model are expected to be of good quality, allowing understanding the behavior of the coastal area, with good statistical indices in the Santos-São Vicente- Bertioga Estuarine System, with emphasis in the simulation of storm surge events. REFERENCES CHURCH, J. A. et al. Sea level change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 1137–1216, 2013. HARARI, J.; CAMARGO, R. Modelagem numérica da região costeira de Santos (SP): circulação de maré. Revista Brasileira de Oceanografia, v. 46, n. 2, p. 135–156, 1998. HARARI, J. et al. Implantação de um sistema de previsão de marés e de correntes de maré na Baixada Santista através de modelo numérico tridimensional. Relatório Interno do Instituto Oceanográfico, v. 45, n. February 2015, p. 1–21, 1999. NPH – NÚCLEO DE PESQUISAS HIDRODINÂMICAS DA UNIVERSIDADE SANTA CECÍLIA. Implantação do sistema de monitoramento e previsão da qualidade da água por meio de modelagem numérica ambiental e desenvolvimento de base de dados na Bacia Hidrográfica do Estuário de Santos – São Vicente. Universidade Santa Cecília, 2017. Relatório Técnico. 126p. RESIO, D. T.; WESTERINK, J. J. Modeling the physics of storm surges - Physics Today September 2008 Modeling the physics of storm surges - Physics Today September 2008. v. 7, n. September, p. 3–9, 2008.
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HYDRODYNAMIC MODELING AND FORECASTING ON THE ESTUARY OF SANTOS-
SÃO VICENTE-BERTIOGA
RUIZ, M.S.1,2; HARARI, J. 1; RIBEIRO, R.B.2; SAMPAIO, A.F.P. 2
¹Instituto Oceanográfico da Universidade de São Paulo2Núcleo de Pesquisas Hidrodinâmicas – NPH-UNISANTA
INTRODUCTION
Storm surge is a sea level rise driven by intense atmosphericpressure and temperature gradients, generally associated to lowpressure centers in the surface of the atmosphere (RESIO andWESTERINK, 2008).
Due to the increase in mean sea level, as well the increase ofthe frequency and intensity of these extreme events, it is evidentthe need of comprehension of oceanographic processes atcoastal regions through scientific research, in order to providetechnical and scientific background for the best solution ofproblems related to coastal management (CHURCH et al., 2013).
For a better understanding and representation of the localhydrodynamic processes, computational modeling constitutes anexcellent methodology (NPH, 2017).
The objective of this study is to characterize and simulatestorm surge events in the Estuary of Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga, in order to provide better results of hydrodynamicforecast in this estuary.
MODEL DOMAIN
The Estuary of Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga is located in theMetropolitan Region of Baixada Santista, on the coast of theState of São Paulo (Figure 1). This metropolitan region is formedby nine municipalities: Santos, São Vicente, Praia Grande,Mongaguá, Guarujá, Peruíbe, Itanhaém, Cubatão; and Bertioga.The region of Baixada Santista presents high demographicdensity, due to its geographic location and socioeconomicfactors. The hydrographic system of the region under study canbe subdivided into three estuaries and one bay: Estuary ofBertioga Channel; Estuary of Santos Port Channel; and Estuary ofSão Vicente, the last two with their mouth in Santos Bay.
Figure 1 – Geographic location of the Estuary of Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga
METHODOLOGY AND EXPECTED RESULTS
This project will be divided in two steps: Analysis of currentand sea level data; and numerical modeling.
Data of sea level, velocity and direction of the currents wereobtained from São Paulo Pilots local stations (Figure 2), andprovided to NPH-UNISANTA. In addition, data from CompanhiaDocas do Estado de São Paulo (CODESP) will be used. There isalso the possibility of adding data from other sources, in order tocharacterize the local physical processes and increase therepresentativeness of the hydrodynamic model, with emphasison storm surge events.
Data analysis will be carried out through MATLAB® software;propagation times and differences in tidal amplitudes in thechannels and estuary will be relevant variables to consider in thisstudy.
Figure 2 – Geographic location of the São Paulo Pilots local stations
The mean tidal amplitudes in the Santos Port Channel are1.23m and 0.24m, respectively in spring and neap tides. The tideof the estuarine channels is irregular, of mixed and semidiurnalcharacter, with main period of 12h42min. The cold fronts arefrequent in the region - mainly in the winter - and producechanges in the mean sea level, which can exceed 0.5m (HARARIet al., 1999). According to Camargo and Harari (1998), there isconvergence and divergence of the flood and ebb currents of SãoVicente and Bertioga Channels, where tidal waves meet,propagating from their extremities.
After data analysis, a set of hydrodynamic numerical modelswill be implemented, in order to simulate the local hydrodynamicstorm surges, through a technique named downscaling, whichconsists of information transfer from the large scale grid to alocal scale grid. The chosen model for this project is MOHID, asthis model runs operationally through the NPH and Hidromodpartnership. Nonetheless, model grids and meteorologicalforcing are not yet defined.
The results after the implementation, calibration andvalidation of the hydrodynamic model are expected to be ofgood quality, allowing understanding the behavior of the coastalarea, with good statistical indices in the Santos-São Vicente-Bertioga Estuarine System, with emphasis in the simulation ofstorm surge events.
REFERENCESCHURCH, J. A. et al. Sea level change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 1137–1216, 2013.
HARARI, J.; CAMARGO, R. Modelagem numérica da região costeira de Santos (SP):circulação de maré. Revista Brasileira de Oceanografia, v. 46, n. 2, p. 135–156, 1998.
HARARI, J. et al. Implantação de um sistema de previsão de marés e de correntes demaré na Baixada Santista através de modelo numérico tridimensional. Relatório Internodo Instituto Oceanográfico, v. 45, n. February 2015, p. 1–21, 1999.
NPH – NÚCLEO DE PESQUISAS HIDRODINÂMICAS DA UNIVERSIDADE SANTA CECÍLIA.Implantação do sistema de monitoramento e previsão da qualidade da água por meiode modelagem numérica ambiental e desenvolvimento de base de dados na BaciaHidrográfica do Estuário de Santos – São Vicente. Universidade Santa Cecília, 2017.Relatório Técnico. 126p.
RESIO, D. T.; WESTERINK, J. J. Modeling the physics of storm surges - Physics TodaySeptember 2008 Modeling the physics of storm surges - Physics Today September 2008.v. 7, n. September, p. 3–9, 2008.
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