Hurricanes 2014 Dan Reilly National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
Hurricanes 2014
Dan ReillyNational Weather Service
Houston/Galveston
Outline• Review of Hurricane Hazards: surge,
wind, rain, tornadoes; which ones are a threat to your location?
• Ways to monitor storms during the hurricane season
• 2014 Hurricane Season forecast
Hurricane/Tropical Storm Potential Hazards
Storm Surge Flooding Tornadoes
Flooding RainsDamaging Winds
Every storm is different as far as combination of hazards
TS Allison (2001)
Ike (2008), Carla (1961)
Alicia (1983)Andrew (1992)
Buelah (1967)
Hurricane ThreatsSTORM SURGE – The abnormal rise in water level due to the storm (wind pushes water onto land); If the surge+tide (stormtide) is greater than your elevation you will have flooding
Storm Surge Example – hurricane makes landfall at high tide
Hurricane Ike: Large Category 2 StormLarge Hurricanes Large Storm Surge!
Bolivar Peninsula Friday morning
Lesson learned: if under an evacuation order leave as soon as possible, don’t wait too long!
Category 1 Damage in Houston
Typical damage with Ike around Houston: downed or snapped Trees, some roof damage
Hurricane Wind Damage
Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph)
Storm Examples Wind Impacts
Tropical Depression
Less than 39 mph Relatively minor
Tropical Storm
Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant
1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce
Claudette 2003 some damageHumberto 2007
2 96 - 110 Georges 1998Ike 2008
Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage
3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005Rita 2005
4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damageCarla 1961
5 > 156 Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damageCamille 1969
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates – June 10, 2001
Rainfall From Tropical Cyclones
Rule of Thumb: Divide storm speed into 100 to get potential rainfall!
Some Notable Flood-Producing Storms
3-71FEMA Hurricane Readiness Coastal Communities
05/02/2023 Weather.gov/houston 18
From Ashley and Ashley, 2008; 50 years of data across the U.S.
Stay Aware of What is Going on in Tropics• Before storm develops look at Tropical Weather
Outlook to see which disturbances may develop• Once the storm forms…
– Look at the detailed forecast for your area; NWS will forecast wind speed, rainfall amount, surge height and tornado threat
– All storms are different; will next one be more of a TS Allison, Hurricane Ike or Hurricane Andrew?
Houston Weather Forecast Office: http://weather.gov/houston National Hurricane Center: http://hurricanes.gov
A Great Way to Stay Informed:Tropical Weather Outlook
Text Graphic
Identifies which disturbances have potential to become a tropical storm within 48 hours with a probability assigned to each.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013
Forecast Group Number of Named Storms
Number of Hurricanes
Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-2010)
12 6.5 2
Weather Channel 16 9 5
Colorado State 18 9 4
National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6
Cuba Institute 17 9
Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4
Accuweather 16 8 4
Actual ? ? ?
How did the forecast turn out?
Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013
Forecast Group Number of Named Storms
Number of Hurricanes
Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-2010)
12 6.5 2
Weather Channel 16 9 5
Colorado State 18 9 4
National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6
Cuba Institute 17 9
Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4
Accuweather 16 8 4
Actual 13 2 0
Forecast was off! Numbers well below forecast, especially hurricanes.
Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2014
Forecast Group Number of Named Storms
Number of Hurricanes
Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger)
Long-Term Average (1981-2010)
12 6.5 2
Colorado State 9 3 1
Weather Underground 7-9 1-3 0-2
NOAA 8-13 3-6 2
Actual ? ? ?
Climate Pattern called El Nino setting up which normally limits number of storms; also tropical waters cool for this time of year; still it only takes one and Alicia and Andrew occurred during “quiet” years
Is this information useful? Are we in the clear this year?
El Nino and La Nina
Climate.gov
Usually means fewer Atlantic storms
Usually means more Atlantic storms
Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)
It Only Takes One
Weather Information from NWS Houston/Galveston
• Web: weather.gov/houston• Twitter: @NWSHouston• Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.HoustonGalveston.gov
• Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSHouston
Forecast details presented graphically through web and social media