1 of 2 © Copyright 2011 Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the written permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This report is for general guidance only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis“). Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Hazard and damage potential maps produced by Willis are based on numerical modeling results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. Tropical Storm Ophelia Information from NHC Advisory 10, 5:00 AM EDT Friday September 23, 2011 Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to weaken. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Ophelia could become a tropical depression over the weekend. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC) Max Sustained Wind Speed: 45 mph (tropical storm) Position Relative to Land: 740 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 1004 mb Coordinates: 14.5, 51.0 W Trop. Storm Force Winds (39+ mph): 260 miles from the center Bearing/Speed: WNW or 290 degrees at 13 mph Est. Max Sustained Wind Speed: n/a HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT ™ Forecast Summary • Within 48 hours, there is a 42% chance Ophelia will remain a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds), a 4% chance Ophelia will strengthen to a hurricane (74+ mph winds) and a 56% chance Ophelia will weaken to a tropical depression (winds below 39 mph) or dissipate. • The windfield map – based on the HWRF 00:00 UTC forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at category 1 hurricane strength (74-95 mph winds). The HWRF – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Tropical Storm Ophelia by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Forecast tracks for all current models (All Fcst Tracks) are shown on the map (in pale gray) to illustrate the uncertainty in Ophelia’s forecast track. • The NHC estimates that Barbuda and Saint Maarten each have an 8% chance of experiencing weak tropical storm force winds (39-58 mph) from Ophelia within the next five days. Other islands in the vicinity of Barbuda and Saint Maarten are also estimated to have some chance of experiencing Ophelia’s winds, but lower than the chances estimated for Barbuda and Saint Maarten. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Ophelia (National Hurricane Center) Forecast Windfield & Rain Footprint for Tropical Storm Ophelia (Based on HWRF as of 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. Santo Domingo Washington D.C. Ottawa Ottawa San Juan San Juan Kingston Kingston Port-au-Prince Port-au-Prince Nassau Nassau Castries Castries Willemstad Willemstad Fort-De-France Fort-De-France Miami Miami Buffalo Buffalo Toronto Toronto US US CA CA DO DO CU CU Tropic of Cancer Tropic of Cancer Bermuda 09-28 09-25 09-24 09-27 09-26 09-23 0 1,000 2,000 500 Miles weak TS strong TS Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4 Cat 5 All Fcst Tracks below 1 in 1 - 3 in 3 - 6 in 6 - 9 in 9 - 12 in 12 - 24 in HWRF FcstTrack NHC FcstTrack Ï ! D TD Ï ! S TS Ï ! 1 Cat1 Ï ! 2 Cat2 Ï ! 3 Cat3 Ï ! 4 Cat4 Ï ! 5 Cat5