Hurricane Sandy from a Meteorological Perspective David Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge National Weather Service
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Hurricane Sandy from a Meteorological Perspective
David Vallee
Hydrologist-in-Charge National Weather Service
Northeast River Forecast Center
Taunton, MA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Examining The Impacts of Hurricane Sandy
on Rhode Island: A serious wake-up call!
David R. Vallee
Hydrologist-in-Charge & Resident Hurricaneologist
NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Objectives for this session:
Quick overview of the atmospheric “chess board”
Why did we have so much damage on the south coast?
Placing it in comparison with some of our historical
Hurricanes
Northeast River Forecast Center
Taunton, MA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Consider The Past Two Seasons:
Irene: Widespread wind damage & power disruption but we
were spared flooding rains & significant coastal flooding
o “It’s all about the wind and rain!”
Sandy: Significant coastal flooding but with less wind and little
if any rain
o “It’s all about the coastal flooding!”
Northeast River Forecast Center
Taunton, MA
IRENE SANDY
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Sandy: A Perfect Storm of Sorts
Formed in the western Caribbean
o Not at all unusual for late October
Encountered a very deep trough of Low Pressure in the
eastern United States and very strong High Pressure moving
southward from the Canadian Maritimes
o A winter-type dual jet stream set up (classic for a New England Hurricane)
o Captured Sandy & blocked her attempt to race out to sea
Northeast River Forecast Center
Taunton, MA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Southeast Vs. Northeast Wind Direction
What a difference it makes!
RI is not “weathered” for southeast high wind events
o Nor is our vegetation!
Wind Frequency and Average Speed by Direction
August through October
http://windhistory.com
Northeast River Forecast Center
Taunton, MA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Irene’s Winds vs. Sandy’s Winds
IRENE’s Winds Sandy’s Winds
Hurricane Force Wind Gusts
* Irene’s winds were predominantly from the southeast
• Sandy’s were mostly northeast – except southern RI late Monday afternoon
• Difference between widespread damage vs. scattered shorter duration damage
Image: R .Hart, FSU
Long Duration Southeast Fetch
Damaging Waves, Multiple Tide Cycles & a 4-5 ft Storm Surge
Southeast swells built on 2 days of southeast winds were
driven right into the south coast of RI o Impacted Multiple Tide Cycles – worst of which was Monday night
o 15-30 foot seas resulted in relentless pounding surf which first weakened then
obliterated the 6-10 foot dunes along parts of the coast
o Storm surge of 4-5 feet atop a “middle-of-the-road” astronomical tide produce a total
water level (storm tide) of 9.6 feet; One foot shy of Hurricane Bob in ’91
o What she lacked in intensity she made up for in duration!
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Misquamicut Before
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Misquamicut After
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
What should we be expecting on
Atlantic Ave, Westerly, RI?
USACE Hurricane Inundation Maps - RI & E coast MA recently updated, Buzz. Bay =
June/July
- MA/RI maps & GIS layers are available at:
- http://www.nae.usace.army.mil/projects/hes/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
What did it look like in 1954?
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Area Pre-Sandy 2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Area Pre-Sandy 2012
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Rhode Island Was Spared The Worst
We are a tremendously vulnerable State
o Planning is of the utmost importance – it must reflect storm events that
will undoubtedly far exceed the damage from Irene & Sandy
Shifts in precipitation frequency
o Steadily increasing annual rainfall and frequency of heavy rain events
o 1% / 100 yr storm in the 1960s is now a 2% / 50 yr event!
o Small urban watersheds (Pawtuxet for example) have limited capacity
to deal with these shifts = increased flooding over time (March 2010)
IRENE SANDY
Rhode Island Was Spared The Worst
We cannot ignore sea level rise impacts
o A higher “starting point” means that a storm of lesser severity will be
capable of producing damage to that of a stronger storm
o Lunar Equinox tides now producing localized coastal flooding
o Consider: Category 2 Hurricane producing inundation & damage
comparable to what a Category 3 would have done 50 years ago!
o A “side-swipe” from Sandy produced damage on the south coast
comparable to a Category 1 to 2 type Hurricane!
IRENE SANDY
Northeast River Forecast Center
Taunton, MA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
National Weather Service
Examining The Impacts of Hurricane Sandy
on Rhode Island: A serious wake-up call!
THANK YOU!
David R. Vallee
Hydrologist-in-Charge & Resident Hurricaneologist
NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center
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