Hurricane Ike Review/Outlook for 2010 Looking Back at Ike Dan Reilly National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
Aug 20, 2015
Hurricane Ike Review/Outlook for 2010Looking Back at Ike
Dan Reilly
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
Outline
• Hurricane History/Climatology
• Outlook for 2010 Season
• Changes for 2010 to NWS Products
Oil Spill Update:
May 21st, 2010
http://response.restoration.noaa.gov
June 1st, 2010
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embriefing
Loop Current
Tropical Cyclone HazardsTropical Cyclone Hazards
Storm SurgeStorm Surge TornadoesTornadoes
FloodingFloodingDamaging WindsDamaging Winds
Hurricane Threats
Maximum storm surge
and wind occur in right
forward quadrant, near where
center crosses the
coast
Radar loop for Ike
Early Rise Trapped some on Bolivar, Galveston Island
Hurricane Ike: Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula Bolivar Peninsula DevastationDevastation
Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/
Tropical Storm Allison June 2001 Looped Over SE Texas; 36.99 inches of rain Port of Houston
Tropical Storm Claudette July 1979. Looped Over SE Texas; 43 inches of rain measured in Alvin over 24 hours (record)
Hurricane Climatology (continued)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE)Measure of Tropical Cyclone activity: Sum of the square of the maximum wind speed of
all storms at least Tropical Storm strength every 6 hours
Outlook for 2010• NOAA Outlook
– 14-23 named storms (11-12)
– 8-14 Hurricanes (5-6)
– 3-7 Major Hurricanes (2-3)
– ACE 155%-270% of median
• Loss of El Nino, active phase of MDO, and above average sea surface temperatures suggest above average activity
• Even a low activity season can have a big effect locally: need to prepare
Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)
Changes to NWS Products
• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings issued 12 hours earlier (48 hours for watches, 36 hours for warnings prior to onset of TS force winds)
• Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale adopted (ties of category to surge and central pressure taken out of the scale)
Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph)
Storm Examples Wind Impacts
1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce
Claudette 2003 some damage
Humberto 2007
2 96 - 110 Georges 1998
Ike 2008
Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage
3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage
Carla 1961
5 > 156 Labor Day 1935 Catastrophic damage
Camille 1969
Andrew 1992
Now officially adopted: just a wind rating without reference to surge, central pressure
New Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Summary
• Ike was a very large storm, tremendous surge producer
• Category of storm not a good overall indicator of storm severity
• 2010 season will likely be more active for Atlantic; no telling how Texas may be impacted