Human Terrain and The Power Arena: Mapping Power in the Afghan Civil War Semester Project Phase 3 Ryan Bullock, CONF 695 DL-2 Intractable Conflict, Fall.

Human Terrain and The Power Arena:Mapping Power in the Afghan Civil War

Semester Project Phase 3 

Ryan Bullock, CONF 695 DL-2Intractable Conflict,Fall 2013, Dr.’s Burgess

In TheoryWeberian. Weber believed Power was derived from Party, Status, and Position. These were apportioned within societies to guarantee resources and assets were controlled by dominant social classes, themselves constructed from Parties, Statuses, and Positions.

Gidedensian: Theory of Structuration. “… structures, as rules and resources, are both the precondition and the unintended outcome of people’s agency…..” Giddens addresses the transformative and domineering qualities of power. As Giddens notes: Action depends on the capability of the individual to ‘make a difference’ to a preexisting state of affairs or course of events. An agent ceases to be such if he or she loses the capability to ‘make a difference’, that is, to exercise some sort of power.” (Giddens, 1984: 14)

Lukesian: Power: A Radical View. Individuality; “The principle of individualism that which, taking man out of society, makes him sole judge of what surrounds him and of himself, gives him a heightened sense of his rights without showing him his duties, abandons him to his own powers, and, for the whole of government, roclaimslaisser-faire.”

Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation,Spring 2013, SCAR (Bullock)

Power: Assumptions & Facts

Assumptions

▪ Potential Power resides in all individuals, groups, and organizations. ▪ These combinations and their attendant characteristics can be qualified and quantified as Power Attributes

▪ The more Power Attributes an actor has, the more powerful the actor

▪ Organizations are generally more powerful than individuals or groups

Facts

▪ Power is dynamic, it is subject to factors inherent in the environment

▪ Power can be derived from multiple sources

▪ Power is contextual, and relative to other types of power with which it may be confronted ▪ Power is transitory, levels of power may fluctuate

▪ Exercise of power is an integral part of all human relationships

The scope of your research about what you have found as a gap or missing link in CAR

Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation,Fall 2011, ICAR (Bullock)

Sources & Models of Power From Where do Actors Draw Their Power ?

How Do Actors Employ Power ?

DIME:• Diplomatic• Information• Military• Economic Everybody knows DIME

Weber• Land• Capital• Social respect• Physical strength• Intellectual knowledge Chris.Livesey:www.sociology.org.uk

Beth Roy• Internal• Transactional• Organizational• Cultural• Structural Beth Roy, “Thinking About Power”

French & Raven• Reward power• Legitimate power• Referent power• Expert power• Informational power wikipedia.com

Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation,Fall 2011, ICAR (Bullock)

▪ Actors can be individuals or nation states, and anybody in between

▪ Understanding actor power is key to facilitating empowerment

▪ Actors draw power from multiple sources

▪ Knowing which power attributes an actor will employ in a mediation situation is key

▪ Relationships between actors can balance power dynamics

▪ Stakes will dictate levels of power displayed by actors

Not understanding actor power dynamics can have grave consequences for CR Practitioners

The scope of your research about what you have found as a gap or missing link in CAR

Slide adapted from CONF 713 presentation,Fall 2011, ICAR (Bullock)

The Major Players

International Community

The Afghans

HazaraUzbeks

Tajiks

Pashtuns

Taliban

Others

Military SupportArmed ConflictGovernmentHumanitarianDirectIndirect

AQ

Warlords

Warlords

NATO

USA

Pakistan

Iran

GIROA

Elites

NGO

The power Arena The map depicts two major players, the international community, and the Afghans. Within these categories exist multiple key players, including the US/ISAF, and other international actors, the GIROA, the Taliban, the Pashtuns, other Afghan ethnic groups, and the warlords/elites. Key players in Afghanistan employ various types of power. Power, sources of power, and means are distributed unequally amongst the key players in Afghanistan. Actors employ power through both legitimate and illegitimate structures. Warlords/Elites are key power nodes in Afghanistan. Outside actors exercise power, influencing the conflict system positively and negatively. Land, social respect, and physical strength are key sources of power in Afghanistan. The map indicates military power is a key characteristic of the Afghan conflict. Those who know it best, call it the Afghan civil war for a reason. Military power is distributed amongst key players, mainly the GIROA, the resistance, meaning the Taliban and other groups, and ISAF/U.S., representing the military contingent of the international community seeking stability in Afghanistan. But violence as a conflict resolution method is distributed to the lowest levels of Afghan society.

Structures

Warlords

Tribal Base

Pashtun Tribes

ANSF incapable of providing security

Debilitated social services expose vulnerable population to malign actors and influence, and undermine confidence in GIROA

GIROA

Weak CentralGovernment

Rule of Law serves elites only

Corrupt Law Enforcement Natural Resources

Controlled by Elites

Instability

Poor GovernanceArrested Development

Struggling Economy drives illicit activity

Corrupt Institutions

Taliban

Other Resistance

Groups

AQ

Other Ethnic Groups

Corrupt Institutions

Rule of Law serves elites only

WarlordsPrivate Armie

Institution

Actor

Critical Conflict Relationship

Reciprocal Relationship

Structural Element

Secondary Causal Relationship

Transaction

Escalatory Relationship

Attitude

Key Function

Stagnating Relationship

What power options exist for whom? International actors continue to wield significant power of all types in

Afghanistan. Military and economic power are prominent features of the international commitment. Imminent withdrawal of outside actor combat forces will induce reliance on softer methods of influence, perhaps based more on diplomacy and referent sources.

Conflict mapping depicted the powerful position of the Afghan Pashtuns. The Pashtuns draw power from a variety of sources and have dominated Afghan politics for hundreds of years. The Pashtuns wield a great deal of cultural, structural (through the tribal system), transactional, and organizational power. As one component of the world’s largest tribal structure, the Pashtuns represent 40% of Afghanistan’s population. The center of gravity for military resistance to ISAF/GIROA resides in the Pashtun tribal structure, and perhaps more importantly ethos, as shown by multiple layers of the conflict map.

Other ethnic groups in Afghanistan maintain credible power sources, means, and options. Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara interests are mapped to GIROA, and as an actor cluster they function as a power balance to Pashtun influence, and drive to dominate. Tajik warlords wiled significant military, economic, political, and cultural power in northern and eastern Afghanistan. The Hazara have sought security and legitimacy by securing footholds in the security and political structures of the GIROA.

The Afghans

Attitudes

IntergroupRelations

PashtunSuperiority

Fear

Damaged Identities

Hazara

Uzbeks

Tajiks

SocialCapital

Religion

Shared History

Afghan Civil War

Extremism

ANSF incapable of providing security

Struggling Economy drives illicit activity

Debilitated social services expose vulnerable population to malign actors and influence, and undermine confidence in GIROA

Tribal Base

Pashtun Tribes

Weak CentralGovernment

GIROA

Institution/Actor

Actor

Primary Causal Relationship

Critical Relationship

Reciprocal Relationship

Structural Element

Secondary Causal Relationship

Key Governance Functions

Uncertainty

Attitude

CorruptionResistance

Ethnocentrism

Taliban

NATO

USA

The Afghans

CoreGrievances

INTLCommunityPoverty

WEARINESS

LACK OF CONFIDENCE

RESENTMENT

Resignation

Design a power strategy for at least two of the primary disputants and one potential intervener.

The basic framework relies on a federated system geographically oriented on Afghanistan’s ethnic groups. It is all predicated upon a cessation of hostilities. Fighting must stop, and only the Afghans can really plant the seeds of peace. In this arrangement, the GIROA would cede certain powers, including local security, to the federated states.

1) VIOLENCE. Reduce Military Power. The map indicates military power is a prominent power type, characteristic of the Afghan conflict. Those who know it best, call it the Afghan civil war for a reason. Military power is distributed amongst key players, mainly the GIROA, the resistance, meaning the Taliban and other groups, and of course the ISAF/U.S., representing the military contingent of the international community seeking stability in Afghanistan. Together these actors account for nearly all of the death and destruction in Afghanistan. 2) SHRINK POOR GOVERNANCE. Re-power GIROA. Ironically, empowering GIROA could actually mean weakening it. Given the historic disdain for central authority exhibited by Afghanistan’s population at large, it is unlikely a weak GIROA will be able to maintain its position for an extended period of time, once its INTL benefactors depart. GIROA wallows in a debilitating credibility gap, unable to shed the malaise of corruption and ineffectiveness marking its tenure thus far. As such it is necessary to realistically scope the role and powers of GIROA in the future of Afghanistan. 3) REDUCE ETHNIC TENSION. Power Sharing. The longstanding tension, and contention, between the Pashtuns and the other ethnic groups informs the factionalized and fractionalized nature of Afghan politics and society. The Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara can marshal power collectively to offset Pashtun power and dominance.

Transactions

Resistance

WARFARE

ANSF incapable of providing security

Diplomacy

Taliban

INTLCommunity

Instability

Institution

Actor

Critical Conflict Relationship

Reciprocal Relationship

Structural Element

Secondary Causal Relationship

Transaction

Escalatory Relationship

Attitude

Uncertainty

Tribal Base

Pashtun Tribes

Patronage

Corruption Exploit-ation

FEUDALISM

Weak CentralGovernment

GIROA

Struggling Economy drives illicit activity

Debilitated social services expose vulnerable population to malign actors and influence, and undermine confidence in GIROA

Warlords

Private Armies

Poverty

NATO

USA

Proselytizing

Extremism

Religion

Stagnating Relationship

Other Resistance

Groups