Human-induced climate change Brisbane Mining Club, 21 st October 2010 Brisbane Mining Club, 21 st October 2010 Why I am sceptical Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Ian Plimer Ian Plimer
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Human-induced climate change
Brisbane Mining Club, 21st October 2010Brisbane Mining Club, 21st October 2010
Human-induced climate change
Why I am sceptical
Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide
Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide
Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne
Regional isostasy & local relative sea-level since 6 ka
Clark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative seaClark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative seaClark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative seaClark, J.A. & Lingle, C.S. 1979 Predicted relative sea----level changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused bylevel changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused bylevel changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused bylevel changes (18,000 Years B.P. to present) caused by
latelatelatelate----glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279glacial retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet. Quaternary Research 11, 279----298. 298. 298. 298.
“Australia and New Zealand surely have a moral responsibility to accept refugees from Pacific Islands inundated by rising sea levels.”
Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Environmental and climate change refugees by Dr Bryan Furnass. Presented at the Manning Clark House,1 April 2007.
Trend +5.3 mm/yr
Trend +0.9 mm/yr
Sea level changeSea level change
1992-95Global average rise
= 4.6 mm/yr
1992-95Global average rise
= 4.6 mm/yr
1992-98Global average rise= 1.4 to 1 mm/yr
1992-98Global average rise= 1.4 to 1 mm/yr
TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992 – August 1995(patterns dominated by international ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992 – August 1995(patterns dominated by international ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)
-60-60 -30-30 00 3030 60 mm/yr60 mm/yr
Holocene scatter of shoreline measurements
TECTONIC UPLIFT RATE
10m/ky
LOCAL RELATIVESEA-LEVEL CURVE
Today’shighstand
LastGlacial
lowstand
Approximate eustatic sea-level curve
We’ll all be roonedWe’ll all be rooned
20002000
Measurement of historic sea levelsMeasurement of historic sea levels
Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)
Fremantle1.4mm/yr
Southern Oscillation Index
Hansen, 2006Hansen, 2006Hansen, 2006Hansen, 2006
(+6 m in 2100)(+6 m in 2100)(+6 m in 2100)(+6 m in 2100)RSNZ, 2010RSNZ, 2010RSNZ, 2010RSNZ, 2010
"Once the weather-related insured losses are normalised, they exhibit no obvious trend over time that might be attributed to other factors, including human-induced climate change.“
Crompton, R. P., and McAneney, K. J.: Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards: 1967-2006, Environ. Sci. Policy 11: 371-378, 2008.
In USA, 89% land thermometers administered by NOAA fail to meet siting requirements. Abandoned site records used in historical records
In 1980s, >6,000 thermometers
In USA, 89% land thermometers administered by NOAA fail to meet siting requirements. Abandoned site records used in historical records
In 1980s, >6,000 thermometers
Global network of 1,079 official terrestrial thermometers, 54% of which are at airports, >80% in urban areas and greater proportion at lower altitudes and equatorial
Many resited
Global network of 1,079 official terrestrial thermometers, 54% of which are at airports, >80% in urban areas and greater proportion at lower altitudes and equatorial
Many resited
Reliability of surface measurementsReliability of surface measurements
The 28 years of high quality satellite dataThe 28 years of high quality satellite data
Tem
pera
ture
Vari
ati
on (°C
)Tem
pera
ture
Vari
ati
on (°C
) 1.01.0
0.50.5GlobalGlobal
Tem
pera
ture
Vari
ati
on (
Tem
pera
ture
Vari
ati
on (
1.01.0
0.50.5
00
-0.5-0.5
00
-0.5-0.5
1.01.0 Southern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere
Northern HemisphereNorthern Hemisphere
The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly
The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago,The Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly
Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2-control),as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)
Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted temperature change in °K at CO2 doubling (2xCO2-control),as a function of latitude and pressure level, for four general-circulation models (Lee et al., 2007)
5050
100100
200200
300300
500500700700950950
60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N
5050
100100
200200
300300
500500700700950950
60°S60°S 30°S30°S EQEQ 30°N30°N 60°N60°N
Radiosonde measurementsRadiosonde measurements
2525
hPahPa
No “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in realityNo “greenhouse warming” signature is observed in reality
PERSUADE China, India and the Third World to stay poor
When we’ve stopped these natural processes,
if human-induced then:
PERSUADE China, India and the Third World to stay poor
A few little problemsA few little problems
Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2
rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming)
Industrial age coolings when CO increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975,
Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940, 1975-1998; CO2
rise only correlates with 1975-1998 warming)
Industrial age coolings when CO increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present)
Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots
Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of
Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present)
Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots; 20th Century solar maximum and no sunspots
Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warmings (with no sea level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years
Greater past variability and changes
Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now
level changes); SL rise of 130m 12,000-6,000 years ago, SL fall of 2m over last 6,000 years
Greater past variability and changes
Six of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2 up to 1000 times higher than now
So what…….So what…….
If the planet warms by 0.2°, 2° or 5°C, so what ! (We humans live at sea level, in deserts, the tropics and at altitude. Humans have adapted).
If the planet warms by 0.2°, 2° or 5°C, so what ! (We humans live at sea level, in deserts, the tropics and at altitude. Humans have adapted).
How can a carbon tax in Australia change global climate ?
Why not teach that planet Earth is dynamic ?
Why lead ?
How can a carbon tax in Australia change global climate ?
Why not teach that planet Earth is dynamic ?
Why lead ?
Why not strengthen infrastructure for Australia’s wealth-generating industries ?
Why not strengthen infrastructure for Australia’s wealth-generating industries ?