Human Development Report 2011 - The challenge of equitable and sustainable progress

The challenge of equitable and

sustainable progress: scope of

HDR2011

Ljubjana, May 2011

Why Equity and Sustainability? – distributive justice

• Normative argument:– “It would be a gross violation of the universalist principle if we

were to be obsessed about intergenerational equity without at the same seizing the problem of intragenerational equity” (Anand and Sen, 2000)

• Empirical argument:– “many problems of resource depletion and environmental stress

arise from disparities in economic and political power. ...our inability to promote the common interest in sustainable development is often a product of the relative neglect of economic and social justice within and amongst nations”(Bruntlandt Commission, 1987)

• Can we identify intersections that allow for mutually supportive policies?

→ Positive synergies

Importance of risk and uncertainty

• Conceptual and measurement debates are often conceived in terms of substitutability between natural and man-made capital

• However, given risk, there is uncertainty about future substitutability– This favors the strong sustainability view over weak

sustainability• The capabilities approach is concerned with the

most disadvantaged, thus calls for action to avert catastrophic risks, and mitigate/adapt

Defining sustainable human development

The preservation – and whenever possible expansion – of the substantive freedoms and capabilities of people today while undertaking reasonable efforts to avoid risks that would seriously compromise the capability of future generations to have similar – or greater – freedoms.

Improve Deteriorate

Improve

Introduction ofequitably commonproperty regimes inopen access resources.

Cash transferprograms when themarginal propensity toconsume carbon-intensive goods ishigh.

Deteriorate

Cut CO2 emissions bystopping growth indeveloping countries.

Subsidize consumption of gasoline.

Sustainability

Equity

Synergies or trade-offs

Inequality, (Un)Sustainability and HD: Potential Links

Decline in inequality-adjusted HDI

Trends in deprivations (MPI)

-0.120

-0.100

-0.080

-0.060

-0.040

-0.020

0.000

-0.045

-0.040

-0.035

-0.030

-0.025

-0.020

-0.015

-0.010

-0.005

0.000

0.005Jordan Colombia Madagascar Kenya Nigeria Lesotho Bolivia

Ann

ualiz

ed p

erce

ntag

e ch

ange

in M

PI

Ann

ualiz

ed ab

solu

te C

hang

e in

Han

d A

ΔH * ΔA

ΔA

ΔH

Δ%MPI

2.8

13.6

1.7

7.4 5.6

46.0

22.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

SSA South Asia ECA LAC Arab States EAP Developed Countries

Regional contributions to rising global CO2 emissions(1970-2007; percentage contributions)

EAP w/o China: 6; SA w/o India: 4, China+ India: 48

Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia most affected, particularly by precipitation

-8.00

-7.00

-6.00

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and

the Caribbean

Arab States East Asia and the Pacific

Developed countries

Chan

ges

in d

egre

es ce

lsiu

s

Climate change by region

Temperature (degrees celsius) Precipitation change (mm per month)

The multidimensional poverty index (MPI)used in analysis of env deprivations of the poor

‘Environmental’ deprivations are pervasive among the MPI* poor

• New analysis highlights deprivations relating to dirty water, unimproved sanitation and indoor air pollution

• ‘Environmental’ deprivations contribute disproportionately to MPI poverty

• Overlap: 8 of 10 MPI poor are deprived in 2 or more ‘environmental’ indicators, 29 percent in all three indicators

• Deprivations are highest among MPI poor in cooking fuel across all regions, except the Arab States where lack of water is paramount

• Rural poor are more severely affected* Cooking fuel (dung, wood, charcoal), electricity, water supply and sanitation

‘Environmental deprivations’ among MPI poor by region

Environment threats and deprivations affect multiple aspects of wellbeing

Livelihoods – Direct threat to those dependent on agriculture, forestry and fishingHealth – High burden of disease from indoor & outdoor air pollution & fecal/water borne disease, risk of increase in insect-borne disease & malnutritionEducation – Shocks and uncertainty, coping strategies keep children out of school; lack of electricity impedes homework Empowerment – Burden of coping strategies (wood & water, soil degradation) limits opportunities for societal participation by womenEquity – women and children tend to fare worse in natural disasters , and minorities suffer disproportionally environmental ‘bads’

Rethinking our development model• A clean and safe environment – a right, not a privilege

– 130+ constitutions address environmental norms– Enforceability not always clear cut– Increase right and access to information

• The role of the State– balanced approaches - emphasize investments in non-income

aspects of human development– role of industrial policy in enabling development needs to be

carefully considered– Policies that stimulate specific economic activities

• Eg. policies aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of development - limiting incentives to new activities, automatic sunset provisions, clear benchmarks for success

– Promotion of structural change

Integrating equity concerns into environmental policy design

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICYINSTRUMENTS

COMUNITIESFIRMSFARMS

DESIGN ASPECTS:coverage, costs, source of financing, benefits,

incidence, compensation

Institutional Framework

Monitoring outcomes and distributional

impacts

PEOPLE’S CAPABILITIESOPPORTUNITIES

FREEDOMS

ENDOWMENTS

OPPORTUNITIES

AGENCY

KEY DISTRIBUTIONAL

ASSPECTS:Sources of

livelihoods, Assets, land, skills, social

capital, opportunities

Thank you

www.undp.org/hdr‘let’s talk HDI’

HD Research PapersHDRs

Reg and [email protected]