- 1. Peri-Urban Demographic Change by Graeme Hugo ARC Australian
Professorial Fellow, Professor of Geography and Director of the
Australian Population and Migration Research Centre , The
University of Adelaide Presentation to Beyond the Edge: Australias
First National Peri-Urban Conference: Explaining Ideas, Practice,
Policy and Research, organised by La Trobe University and RMIT, La
Trobe University, Melbourne Campus 2 October 2013
2. Outline of Presentation Introduction Peri-Urban Areas: An
International Perspective Defining Peri-Urban Areas Population
Dynamics Natural Increase Internal Migration International
Migration Population Characteristics Key Trends and Policy Issues
3. A GLOBAL PHENOMENON Between 2013 and 2050 the worlds population
will increase by around 2 billion All of this increase will be in
urban areas most in Asia, Africa, South America and the Pacific
Most of this increase will be in periurban areas 4. A Period of
Exceptional Population Growth in Australia 2006-12 Australian
population increased by 2.27 million compared with 1.18 million
2001-6 Net migration gain from overseas has reached unprecedented
levels (1.41 million, 2006-12) Fastest growing OECD country However
spatial pattern of growth uneven 5. Growth Hot Spots Mining Areas
Coastal Areas Outer Suburbs Peri-Urban Areas *Characterised by
lagging of infrastructure and service provision. In Australia this
is based largely on past population growth rather than present and
future population 6. Rethinking The Rural/Urban Dichotomy Blurring
of distinction Role of enhanced transport and communication
Extension of Functional Metropolitan Regions Reduced tyranny of
distance Extended commuting Global phenomenon - eg. In China 7.
Defining Peri-Urban Areas No standard definition Attempts over long
period (eg Rural-Urban Fringe literature beginning in 1950s) In
Australia - ASGC Outer Metropolitan Statistical Divisions - ASGS
new Greater Capital Statistical Areas and Significant Urban Areas
8. centres with a population of over 10,000 and contain not only
the built up urban area but likely growth over the next 15 years
plus immediately associated rural areas. 9. Schematic
Representation of Suggested Functional Metropolitan Region 10. Key
Features of Peri-Urban Areas The dynamic expanding edge zone of
major cities Mix of urban and rural land issues Rapid change in
land use with increasingly intensive uses replacing less intensive
uses Rapid population change Governance issues and conflicts
because of different interest groups Growth of Retirement
Communities 11. Key Demographic Features Increasing dynamism and
diversity Rapid growth Increasing diversity of population and
households Retirement migration, second homes 12. APPROACH TAKEN
HERE Two groups of Local Government Areas (a)National Growth Areas
Alliance (NGAA) on the edge of Metropolitan Areas (b) Peri-Urban
Areas Adjoining new metropolitan regions 13. Box 1: The National
Growth Areas Alliance (NGAA) Local Government Areas New South Wales
Victoria Queensland Western AustraliaSouth AustraliaBlacktown,
Camden, Campbelltown, Liverpool, Penrith Casey, Cardinia, Wyndham,
Melton, Hume and Whittlesea Moreton Bay, Logan, Ipswich Gosnells,
Wanneroo, Swan, Cockburn, Mandurah, Serpentine -Jarrahdale,
Kwinana, Armadale, Rockingham Playford, Mount Barker 14. Adjoining
Areas, 2011 New South Wales Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Lithgow,
Newcastle, Oberon, Singleton, Upper Lachlan Shire, Wingecarribee,
Wollongong Victoria Bass Coast, Baw Baw, Golden Plains, Hepburn,
Macedon Ranges, Mitchell, Moorabool, Mount Alexander, Murrindindi,
Queenscliff, Surf Coast Queensland Gold Coast, Lockyer Valley,
Scenic Rim, Somerset, Sunshine Coast Beverley, Chittering, Gingin,
Mandurah, Murray, Northam, Toodyay, Western Australia Wandering,
York Tasmania Derwent Valley, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Huon Valley,
Southern Midlands South Australia Adelaide Hills - North and
Balance, Alexandrina - Coastal and Strathalbyn, Barossa - Angaston,
Barossa and Tanunda, Light, Mallala, Mount Barker Central and
Balance, Victor Harbor, Yankalilla 15. DYNAMICS OF POPULATION
CHANGE The population of local areas is shaped by three demographic
processes: The excess of births over deaths (natural increase) The
excess of immigrants from overseas over emigrants who leave the
area and Australia (net international migration) The excess of
in-migrants from elsewhere in Australia over out-migrants moving to
other parts of Australia (net internal migration) 16. Box 2:
Alliance LGAs as a Percent of Australia as a Whole Source: ABS 2011
Census Total population Population growth 2006-11 Household Growth
2006-11 All migrants Recent migrants Persons aged 65+ Persons aged
less than 15 Single parent families Internal migrants Persons aged
0-415.9 35.4 31.6 19.0 17.5 11.5 19.0 18.3 16.5 19.4 17. Adjoining
Areas as a Percent of Australia as a Whole, 2011 Total population
Population Growth 2006-11 Household growth 2006-11 All migrants
Recent migrants Persons aged 65+ years Persons aged less than 15
years Single parent families Internal migrants Persons aged 0-4
years9.9 9.4 10.3 7.3 6.3 11.6 9.8 10.3 10.9 3.5 18. AGE STRUCTURE
The age composition of areas is fundamental to planning services
since demand for all services is influenced by age. It is crucial
to recognise that age groups do not all grow at the same rate or at
the same rate as the total population. Hence demand for particular
services can change rapidly even though there may be little change
in the total population size. 19. Alliance LGAs: Age-Sex
Distribution, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses 2006
(shaded) and 2011 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age
45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9
0-4150000MalesFemales100000500000 Number50000100000150000 20.
Adjoining Areas: Age Sex Distribution, 2006 and 2011 Source: ABS
2006 and 2011 CensusAdjoining LGAs 2006 (shaded) and 2011 85+ 80-84
75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34
25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-480000Males60000Females40000200000
Number20000400006000080000 21. Australia and Alliance LGAs: Age Sex
Distribution, 2011 Australia (shaded) and Alliance LGAsAgeMales85+
80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34
25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-45Females43210 Percent12345 22.
Australia and Adjoining LGAs: Age Sex Distribution, 2011 23.
Largest Immigrant Groups in Alliance LGAs, 2011 United
Kingdom214,061 Iraq18,892New Zealand113,270
Malaysia14,911India68,573 Germany14527Philippines56,916
Lebanon13763South Africa28,083 Netherlands12335Italy27,537
Malta12121Fiji24,328 Croatia11903Vietnam22,666 Samoa11239Sri
Lanka21,862 Turkey11163China21,233 24. Largest Immigrant Groups in
Adjoining LGAs, 2011 England New Zealand Scotland South Africa
Germany Netherlands Italy China Philippines USA108,473 75,670
14,486 12,978 12,394 9,379 8,602 8,492 8,246 7,383India Japan
Ireland FYROM Canada Korea (South) Wales Malaysia Croatia
Thailand6,945 4,774 4,601 4,534 4,410 3,893 3,760 3,654 2,958 2,923
25. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in Alliance LGAs
NumberPercent of Australian
TotalFamily109,09519.3Skilled204,48619.145,53628.7359,11720.0Humanitarian
Total 26. Visa Categories of Settler Arrivals in Adjoining LGAsVisa
Category Family Skilled Humanitarian TotalNumber 18434 1721 33800
53955Percent of Australian Total 5.6 2.0 5.1 5.0 27. Household
Dynamics Grow at different rates to population Faster growth than
population Larger average size Over-representation of families with
children Aged households in retirement areas 28. Alliance LGAs:
Households and Families, 2011 Growth in households 2006-11 Percent
of households privately renting Percent in non-private dwellings
Average size of household Percent of households with two parents
and children Percent of households with single parent and children
Percent own house outright Percent with mortgage Median monthly
mortgage Median weekly rentAlliance 261,418 13.5 1.2 2.8
38.6Australia 616,220 13.9 3.7 2.6 30.713.210.624.5 43.7 $1850
$29531.0 33.1 $1800 $285 29. Adjoining LGAs: Households and
Families, 2011 Growth in households 2006-11 Percent of households
privately renting Percent in non-private dwellings Average size of
household Percent of households with two parents and children
Percent of households with single parent and children Percent own
house outright Percent with mortgage Average median monthly
mortgage Average median weekly rentAdjoining Australia 247,692
616,220 12.7 13.9 3.9 3.7 2.5 2.6 29.9 30.7 11.3 10.6 32.6 31.0
33.2 33.1 $1,527 $1,800 $217 $285 30. Alliance LGAs: Workforce
Issues Male participation rate Female participation rate Percent
unemployed Youth unemployment Median personal income per week
Percent in Professional/Managerial occupations Percent of dwellings
with no motor vehicle Percent travel to work by carAlliance 74.3
59.9 6.2 13.3 $598Australia 71.2 59.2 5.6 12.2 $57725.0 6.334.8
9.082.778.2 31. Adjoining LGAs: Workforce IssuesMale participation
rate Female participation rate Percent unemployed Youth
unemployment Average median personal income per week Percent in
Professional /Managerial occupations Percent of dwellings with no
motor vehicle Percent travel to work by carAdjoining 68.2 57.0 6.2
13.1 $516 30.6 5.5 87.0Australia 71.2 59.2 5.6 12.2 $577 34.8 9.0
78.2 32. Key Demographic Issues 1 The LGAs are absorbing a
disproportionately large share of national growth in both
population and households twice their proportionate share on
average but greater in several LGAs. They are absorbing a
disproportionate share of growth in the dependent children and
youth groups. While they have a lower share of the nations rapidly
growing aged population, it is growing faster than in the nation as
a whole. Absorb a disproportionately large share of new immigrants
settling in Australia this is especially marked for humanitarian
migrants, almost 1 in 3 of whom settle in these LGAs. Since these
groups have especially significant needs of support in the early
years of settlement, this represents an important feature of
several of the LGAs. 33. Key Demographic Issues 2 LGAs are
characterised by immigrant settlement of particular groups
including those from Mainly English speaking backgrounds
(especially young families), Indian background, Fijian and
Philippines-born. More than half of residents in these areas are a
migrant or the child of a migrant. LGAs have a disproportionately
large share of persons who moved within Australia during the
2006-11 period. This is an important part of the dynamics of these
areas and creates challenges for infrastructure and service
provision. There is a dominance of working families with mortgages
in these areas. There is a disproportionate representation of
couples and single parent families with children. 34. CONCLUSION
Distinctive demography Need for research on defining PeriUrban
areas Distinctive issues, lack infrastructure, services Global
issue