KG Eagles “Flying in Circles” Past 20 yrs Seyitbek Usmanov Director & Co-Founder Central Asian Free Market Institute
Jul 17, 2015
KG Eagles “Flying in Circles” Past 20 yrs
Seyitbek Usmanov
Director & Co-Founder
Central Asian Free Market Institute
Summary
I. KG eagles flying in circles: pol & econ
II. KG- flip flop partner of US
III. US should support liberal youth
(Akaev & Bakiev’s MFA)
President
KG Eagles “flying in circles”
R. Otunbaeva
A. Atambaev
O. Babanov
A. Keldibekov
F. Kulov
(Bakiev’s PM & Econ Min)
Prime Minister(Bakiev’s head of Tax &
Social Fund)
Speaker of Parliament
“Find 3 Differences”
2005 revolution heroes 2010 revolution heroes
* Notice Beknazarov’s outfit- same
R. Otunbaeva: Chameleon?Best of any regime
Communist dissertation
Communist career
Democrat
Neo-Democrat
President
“Critique of Falsification of Marxist-Leninist dialectic by philosophers of Frankfurt school”
Soviet ambassador to UNESCO
Akaev’s 1st MFA
Bakiev’s 1st MFAThe #1
1975
1989
1991
2005
2010
USSR Akaev Bakiev Otunbaeva
Economic Leadership… NONE
No economic vision
– PM has not released his economic vision
– No major reforms accomplished, nor planned
Biggest accomplishments
– Teachers salaries increased 3x to $250
– KG intends to join Customs Union
– KG intends to cut # of ministries from 20 to 17
Economic Picture
Shares of 2010 GDP
42.9%
11.8%2.2%
3.1%
18.6%
8.4%
3.6%
9.4%
Agriculture
MiningElectricity Output
Construction
OtherFinancial Services
Trade
Nominal GDP 2010 was ~$5B
Source: National Statistics Agency
Transport & Communication
Core of economy• Agriculture (43%)•Trade (19%)•Mining (12%)
Economic Turbulence
Overall economy
– Fuel troubles by RU since 2010 (RU provides 80% of fuel)
– Taxes, then quotas
Agriculture
– Disappointing harvest expected in 2011
– Due to quotas on diesel (max 20L of diesel)
Economic Turbulence
Trade
– Customs Union devastated Dordoi bazaar (60k jobs)
– Dordoi is largest bazaar in Central Asia
Southern KG
– KG-UZ border closed since April 8, 2010
– Kara Suu Bazaar devastated (20k employed)
Unprecedented Budget Deficit
11,067 11,597 12,108 13,554 16,242
17,883
22,268
29,480
36,943
50,034
61,583
88,627
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Budget Expenses ('000 som)
OFFICIAL BUDGET DEFICIT(30%)
TRANSFER PAYMENTS
(16%)
Tax + Non-Tax= 54% of budget
~2bln USD
Scenario A
Politics: eagles flying in circlesoAtambaev president
oKulov prime minister
Economics: dying economyoRussia to economically pester as long as US base remains
• Fuel supplies irregular, devastating agriculture and economy
o Joining Customs Union will devastate KG markets• Dordoi (60k jobs) and Karasuu (20k jobs) bazaars shut down
oUpheaval in southern KG because of closed UZ border• “If goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will”
KG, a US Partner?
KG leadership is unstable US partner
Politics:
– Current leaders no friends of US
– Mostly business ties to Russia & Kazakhstan
Economics:
– Current KG leadership has no economic vision
– No economic vision= no reforms= socio-political turmoil
– March 24, 2005= April 7, 2010= ???
Scenario B
US supports new generation
New generation implement hard core unpopular reforms
Politics
oNew Gen in power: fresh vision, unleashing energy
o Start with devastating reforms of Ministry of Internal Affairs
o Laying off redundant civil servants
Economics
o Economic shock therapy
o “Privatize everything, except soul” – Kakha Bendukidze
oDe-regulation, liberalization
How? Expose KG youth to Western values
I. Greater support for exchange & edu programs– AUCA prepares KG intellectual elite
– High school (Flex), Undergrad & Grad (Muskie)
– Peace Corps inspire rural youth
– Work & Travel: taste of USA
II. More tourist & work visas, & green cards*– Contrast: 1MM Kyrgyz in Russia who send home $1.2B
– Just 196 lottery visas issued to Kyrgyz in 2011, UZ has 5k
– Strengthen KG-US P2P ties
III. Transmit English language channels to KG– Contrast: ORT, NTV top 3 popular channels
– Example: English language in Netherlands
Summary
I. KG eagles flying in circles: pol & econ
II. KG flip flop partner
III. US should support new generation
KG stable US partner
Reference
Running in Circles by Eric McGlinchey– http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/10/opinion/10mcglinchey.html
Otunbaeva’s biography– http://www.president.kg/ru/categories/4d78bed37d5d2e0bd5000012