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Ecological Footprint Ecological Footprint AnalysisAnalysis

……is an accounting tool that enables us is an accounting tool that enables us to estimate the resource consumption to estimate the resource consumption and waste assimilation requirements of and waste assimilation requirements of a defined human population or economy a defined human population or economy in terms of a corresponding productive in terms of a corresponding productive land area.land area.

The Ecological The Ecological FootprintFootprint

Standard for sustainability: achieving Standard for sustainability: achieving the environmental efficiency that the environmental efficiency that allows us to live within the earth’s allows us to live within the earth’s carrying capacitycarrying capacity

Hong Kong’s Ecological FootprintHong Kong’s Ecological Footprint What is Hong Kong’s per capita ecological What is Hong Kong’s per capita ecological

footprint? footprint? How dependent is Hong Kong for its food, How dependent is Hong Kong for its food,

fuel, and material supplies? Or for its sewage fuel, and material supplies? Or for its sewage impact?impact?

How does Hong Kong’s per capita ecological How does Hong Kong’s per capita ecological footprint compare to world average and to the footprint compare to world average and to the world’s per capita ecologically productive land world’s per capita ecologically productive land and sea allowance?and sea allowance?

Hong Kong’s Ecological DependencyHong Kong’s Ecological DependencyAppropriated Land/Sea Area

Km2 Local Production

Km2 China(Guangdong)

Km2 Rest of World

Km2 Total

Food 1040 26240 42070 69350

Forest -- -- 13900 13900

Fish and Seafood

14220 68080 125010 207310

Assimilation of CO2

90100 to 236250

Total Area Demands

15260 94320 275300 332150 to 478300

Nitrogen Discharges

51435 tonnes 37785 tonnes 53820 tonnes 143040 tonnes

Hong Kong’s Per Capita Footprint in ComparisonHong Kong’s Per Capita Footprint in Comparison

Country Per Capita Footprint (ha)

Rank

World’s per capita allowance 2.0-2.2 average

World’s per capita share 2.85 overshoot

Hong Kong 7.14 13

China 1.8 79

United States 12.22 3

Singapore 12.35 2

Japan 5.94 21

Philippines 1.42 90

Taiwan 4.34 41

SocietySociety

Driver and shaper of business Driver and shaper of business demand, and therefore of impacts demand, and therefore of impacts

on the environmenton the environment

Sustainable Development as IntegrationSustainable Development as Integration

Industrial

Ecology

Technology

PoliticsSociety

Environment EnvironmentIndustrial

Ecology

Industrial

Ecology

Economy

Business

Environmental Management

Product, Material, & Product, Material, & Energy Flow in an Energy Flow in an

IndustryIndustry

ResourceExtraction

MaterialsProcessing

PartsManufacture

ProductAssembly

Distribution

Consumption

MaterialsCollection

Recycling

Social Infrastructure:Gov’t, industry assoc.s,

NGOs, etc.

Material & Energy Inputs

Pollution Outputs

Physical Infrastructure:roads, sewers, land use,

electricity, etc.

Why does society play the Why does society play the central role?central role?

Environmental equity is the core of Environmental equity is the core of sustainable developmentsustainable development

Resource allocation Resource allocation Responsibility and actionResponsibility and action Mobilization for changeMobilization for change

Why does society play the Why does society play the central role?central role?

Society shapes quantitative and qualitative demand on Society shapes quantitative and qualitative demand on environmentenvironment

Directly through consumption and indirectly through Directly through consumption and indirectly through influence on technology, economy, and politicsinfluence on technology, economy, and politics

Business has to respond and adapt its influenceBusiness has to respond and adapt its influence

1. Society: large scale (national, city); interaction based on shared values and beliefs, but indirect and legal relationships

2. Community: small scale (village, town, church, team, company); interaction based on shared values and beliefs, but more intimate and informal

Foundation Definitions

Society OutlineSociety Outline

DilemmasDilemmas Overshoot and social trajectoriesOvershoot and social trajectories Explaining consumptionExplaining consumption

ResponsesResponses Social MovementsSocial Movements CommunityCommunity

Social Trajectories and EnvironmentSocial Trajectories and Environment

We want to understand what forms of social interaction We want to understand what forms of social interaction compel society to damage the environment and how it compel society to damage the environment and how it they can be changed.they can be changed.

GrowthGrowth ValuesValues FeedbackFeedback

PositivePositive NegativeNegative

The Threat The Threat

Overshoot: going beyond a Overshoot: going beyond a limit without intending limit without intending

to.to. Resources (sources): over-exploitation Pollution sink: exceeding assimilation capacity

The The consequences consequences of overshoot: of overshoot:

collapsecollapse

Other Examples of Overshoot:Other Examples of Overshoot:

The ozone layerThe ozone layerGlobal warmingGlobal warmingThe sixth extinctionThe sixth extinctionOcean fisheriesOcean fisheriesDesertificationDesertificationPopulationPopulation

The Social Construction The Social Construction of Overshootof Overshoot

The IPAT EquationThe IPAT Equation

IMPACT = POPULATION x IMPACT = POPULATION x AFFLUENCE x TECHNOLOGYAFFLUENCE x TECHNOLOGY

PopulationPopulation

(Demography)(Demography) Population size, Population size, Structure of populationStructure of population Causes of changeCauses of change

Population Projections to Population Projections to 20502050

High: (Present) 2.6 children per woman= High: (Present) 2.6 children per woman= 10.6 billion10.6 billion

Medium: (Falling to) 2.1 children per woman= Medium: (Falling to) 2.1 children per woman= 9.1 billion9.1 billion

Low: (Falling to) 1.6 children per woman=Low: (Falling to) 1.6 children per woman=7.6 billion7.6 billion

The Demographic Transition

Stages of Demographic TransitionStages of Demographic Transition Stage 1: Stable population levels because of a steady state of high birth and death

rates (stage 1); sanitation, health care, nutrition, and wealth are limited; subsistence agriculture;

Stage 2: Rapid population growth because of high birth and low death rates; primarily a decrease in childhood deaths; better agricultural techniques, food supply, and education; Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh.

Stage 3: Falling rate of increase because of falling birth rates; specialization of agriculture, industrialization, and urbanization; government policy, contraception, female education and rights; China; India.

Stage 4: Equalization of low birth and death rates creating stable population; increasing costs of raising children and priority given to consumption; Sweden, France;

Stage 5: Decreasing population because of lower births than deaths; cost of urban living and shifting priorities; Hong Kong, Japan, Italy.

Why the difference between India and Why the difference between India and China?China?

Affluence (and Consumption)Affluence (and Consumption)

Increases throughput of resources and Increases throughput of resources and energyenergy

Private and public consumptionPrivate and public consumption Urbanization and servicesUrbanization and services Upgrading of equity (socially conditioned)Upgrading of equity (socially conditioned)

OECD TrendsOECD Trends Energy: 36% increase 1973-98; 35% increase Energy: 36% increase 1973-98; 35% increase

expected by 2020 despite efficiency gainsexpected by 2020 despite efficiency gains Transport: 550 million vehicles (75% cars) grow 32%; Transport: 550 million vehicles (75% cars) grow 32%;

40% more miles driven; global air transport triple40% more miles driven; global air transport triple Waste: municipal solid waste will grow 42% 1995-Waste: municipal solid waste will grow 42% 1995-

2020; recycling increasing but is not keeping up2020; recycling increasing but is not keeping up Water: household water use stable in 9 countries; Water: household water use stable in 9 countries;

rising in othersrising in others Food: more meat, vegetables, fish, processed, Food: more meat, vegetables, fish, processed,

imported and organic food eaten; increase in imported and organic food eaten; increase in packaging, transportation.packaging, transportation.

Can the World afford both the Can the World afford both the American and Chinese Dreams?American and Chinese Dreams?

For a long time the US with only 5% of For a long time the US with only 5% of worlds population consumed closed to 1/3 worlds population consumed closed to 1/3 of the world’s resources, but…of the world’s resources, but…

China’s EconomyChina’s Economy 3rd largest, highest growth rate 9%3rd largest, highest growth rate 9% Largest producer of steel, cement, television, Largest producer of steel, cement, television,

aquacultureaquaculture Second largest of electricity and chemical textilesSecond largest of electricity and chemical textiles Largest consumer of fertilizers and second largest Largest consumer of fertilizers and second largest

consumer and producer of pesticidesconsumer and producer of pesticides 1978-2002 Consumption of meat 4x increase; milk 4x; 1978-2002 Consumption of meat 4x increase; milk 4x;

eggs 8x (agr. Waste 4x level of industrial)eggs 8x (agr. Waste 4x level of industrial) Cars 1978-2003 2-25 million; highways 90-180,000Cars 1978-2003 2-25 million; highways 90-180,000

DemographicsDemographics

1.3 billion people1.3 billion people Population doubled in fifty yearsPopulation doubled in fifty years Population growth rate dropped from 2-3% Population growth rate dropped from 2-3%

to 0.7%to 0.7% Household number grew 3x as fast as Household number grew 3x as fast as

population (house size increasing also)population (house size increasing also) 1952-2003 Urbanization 12-39%1952-2003 Urbanization 12-39%

Per Capita Floor Space in Rural and Urban China

Soon more Highways than USSoon more Highways than US

Converging Patterns of Converging Patterns of Energy DependencyEnergy Dependency

Ahead in CommoditiesAhead in Commodities

Ahead in ElectronicsAhead in Electronics

Still behind in Major Still behind in Major PurchasesPurchases

Annual Consumption of Key Resources Per Person in China and the United States, 2004

CommodityCommodity UnitUnit ChinaChina USUS

GrainGrain KilogramsKilograms 291291 935935

MeatMeat KilogramsKilograms 4848 125125

OilOil BarrelsBarrels 22 2525

CoalCoal Kgs of oil Kgs of oil equivalentequivalent

613613 19251925

SteelSteel KilogramsKilograms 198198 353353

PaperPaper KilogramsKilograms 2727 210210

Annual Per Person Consumption in China and the United States in 2004, with Projections for China to

2031, Compared to Current World Production

CommodityCommodity UnitUnit China China 20042004

US US 20042004

World World 20042004

China China 20312031

GrainGrain Million tonsMillion tons 291291 935935 20212021 13521352

MeatMeat Million tonsMillion tons 4848 125125 239239 181181

OilOil Millions Millions Barrels/dayBarrels/day

22 2525 7979 9999

CoalCoal Million tons of Million tons of oil equivalentoil equivalent

613613 19251925 25192519 28232823

SteelSteel Million tonsMillion tons 198198 353353 968968 511511

PaperPaper Million tonsMillion tons 2727 210210 157157 303303

Global Population and Per Capita Consumption as Global Population and Per Capita Consumption as Drivers of Global ConsumptionDrivers of Global Consumption

What Explains the Constant Rise What Explains the Constant Rise in Consumption?in Consumption?

Conventional EconomistConventional Economist

People have an unlimited capacity to People have an unlimited capacity to consume; economy depends on itconsume; economy depends on it

People can rationally choose among People can rationally choose among alternative purchases within their income alternative purchases within their income and will do soand will do so

Increasing propensity to save with Increasing propensity to save with increase in income, butincrease in income, but

Increase in private consumption tracks Increase in private consumption tracks increase in GDP (as countries develop)increase in GDP (as countries develop)

Social Contingency TheoriesSocial Contingency Theories

Veblens theory of “Conspicuous Consumption”Veblens theory of “Conspicuous Consumption” People copy the consumption practices of wealthier People copy the consumption practices of wealthier

members of societymembers of society Hirch’s theory of “Positional Goods”Hirch’s theory of “Positional Goods”

When goods become scarce they become more valued and desirable When goods become scarce they become more valued and desirable because they can be used to differentiate peoplebecause they can be used to differentiate people

Wachtel’s theory of “loss of community”Wachtel’s theory of “loss of community” People consume to compensate for lack of interaction and intimacy in People consume to compensate for lack of interaction and intimacy in

modern societymodern society

Shor’s theory of the “work and spend cycle”Shor’s theory of the “work and spend cycle” Industrialization hasn’t delivered leisure to people because business Industrialization hasn’t delivered leisure to people because business

compensates them with money rather than time, money is spent on compensates them with money rather than time, money is spent on consumption, the patterns of which become ingrainedconsumption, the patterns of which become ingrained

Other ContingenciesOther Contingencies

Public goods are consumed on a different Public goods are consumed on a different basis than private goods (shaped by basis than private goods (shaped by culture; ability to free ride)culture; ability to free ride)

Culture: norms, expectations, habitsCulture: norms, expectations, habits Technology and infrastructure: much of Technology and infrastructure: much of

our consumption is already predetermined our consumption is already predetermined (e.g. communications, transportation, (e.g. communications, transportation, water, etc.)water, etc.)

What Explains this Constant Rise in What Explains this Constant Rise in Consumption?Consumption?

affluenza,affluenza, n. a painful, n. a painful, contagiouscontagious, socially transmitted condition , socially transmitted condition of overload, of overload, debtdebt, , anxietyanxiety and and wastewaste resulting from the dogged p resulting from the dogged pursuit of more. (de Graaf, 2002)ursuit of more. (de Graaf, 2002)

affluenza,affluenza, n. 1. The bloated, sluggish and unfulfilled feeling that n. 1. The bloated, sluggish and unfulfilled feeling that results from efforts to keep up with the Joneses. 2. An epidemic results from efforts to keep up with the Joneses. 2. An epidemic of stress, overwork, waste and indebtedness caused by dogged of stress, overwork, waste and indebtedness caused by dogged pursuit of the American Dream. 3. An unsustainable addiction to pursuit of the American Dream. 3. An unsustainable addiction to economic growth. (PBS)economic growth. (PBS)

affluenza,affluenza, n. 2. “…a n. 2. “…a growing and unhealthy preoccupation with growing and unhealthy preoccupation with moneymoney and material things. This illness is constantly reinforcing and material things. This illness is constantly reinforcing itself at both the individual and the social levels, constraining us itself at both the individual and the social levels, constraining us to derive our identities and sense of place in the world through to derive our identities and sense of place in the world through our consumption activity.“ (Hamilton and Denniss)our consumption activity.“ (Hamilton and Denniss)

Needs, Opportunity-Ability Model of Consumer Needs, Opportunity-Ability Model of Consumer BehaviorBehavior

Technology Economy Demography Institutions Culture

Needs Relations, development, comfort, pleasure, work, health, privacy, money, status, safety, nature, control, leisure-time, justice

Opportunity availability,

information, prices, shops

Ability Financial, time,

spatial, cognitive, physical

Behavioral ControlMotivation

Intention

Consumer Behavior

Consequences: quality of life, environmental quality

Affluence SummaryAffluence Summary

High propensity to consumeHigh propensity to consume Consumption is socially contingent to some Consumption is socially contingent to some

degree, more freedom in some choices than degree, more freedom in some choices than othersothers

No necessity that human desires have to be No necessity that human desires have to be satisfied by material goodssatisfied by material goods

Increasing services indicate otherwiseIncreasing services indicate otherwise Inability of increasing affluence to change level Inability of increasing affluence to change level

of happiness indicates otherwiseof happiness indicates otherwise

Changing Social TrajectoriesChanging Social Trajectories

Economic, Political and Technology Policy Economic, Political and Technology Policy options to change societyoptions to change society

Social MovementsSocial Movements Ecological footprintsEcological footprints MediaMedia

CommunityCommunity

Changing Trajectories #1Changing Trajectories #1

Social MovementsSocial Movements Informal, grassrootsInformal, grassroots Based on environmental pressures, Based on environmental pressures,

education, value changes (livelihood and education, value changes (livelihood and post-materialist movements [lifestyle])post-materialist movements [lifestyle])

Changes in behaviorChanges in behavior

……can lead to:can lead to:

Livelihood and Post-Materialist Livelihood and Post-Materialist IssuesIssues

Livelihood issues are needs for basic Livelihood issues are needs for basic requirements such as food, shelter, fuel requirements such as food, shelter, fuel and employment.and employment.

Post-materialist issues are changes to Post-materialist issues are changes to lifestyle because of concern for lifestyle because of concern for biodiversity, natural beauty, impact of biodiversity, natural beauty, impact of consumption on quality of life etc.consumption on quality of life etc.

A newspaper vendor said she felt like "a vacuum cleaner sucking in dust" when she worked on high pollution days in the smog black spot.

Businesses have renewed appeals for the government to improve Hong Kong's air quality, with one multinational firm downgrading the city to a "hardship posting" due to the smog.

"I have spent so much money on medical costs over the past two years, but it's not just the money. It has also cost me business due to lost time. Whenever I go to Central, I get sick - I have respiratory problems," said Mr Chan

Research shows link between dirty air Research shows link between dirty air and visits to the doctorand visits to the doctor

Professor Wong said the one-year study recorded 51,822 consultations for Professor Wong said the one-year study recorded 51,822 consultations for new cases of illness in the seven clinics. Of these, 36,112 were respiratory new cases of illness in the seven clinics. Of these, 36,112 were respiratory illnesses, including 31,303 upper respiratory tract infections and 2,094 illnesses, including 31,303 upper respiratory tract infections and 2,094 cases of flu. "All in all, it will add up to a much bigger number, maybe a cases of flu. "All in all, it will add up to a much bigger number, maybe a million consultations quite easily if we project this to the total number of million consultations quite easily if we project this to the total number of GPs practising in Hong Kong," he said.GPs practising in Hong Kong," he said.

A statistically significant link was found between an increase in A statistically significant link was found between an increase in consultations and a rise in particulate pollution.consultations and a rise in particulate pollution.

"The impact of air pollution on public health extends far "The impact of air pollution on public health extends far beyond the increase in hospital admissions and mortalities," beyond the increase in hospital admissions and mortalities," the academics said.the academics said.

Non-Governmental Organizations Non-Governmental Organizations and Political Partiesand Political Parties

Formal organizations with committed and paid Formal organizations with committed and paid participantsparticipants

Local to global concerns and organizationLocal to global concerns and organization Different strategies and politics: demonstrations Different strategies and politics: demonstrations

to collaborationto collaboration Impacts on government, business and public Impacts on government, business and public

policy and behaviorpolicy and behavior Environmental NGOs balanced by other NGOs Environmental NGOs balanced by other NGOs

and business associationsand business associations

Failure of negative feedback to change habits Failure of negative feedback to change habits in places of consumption because they are in places of consumption because they are separated from places of production and its separated from places of production and its environmental impactenvironmental impact

An Awareness Problem: An Awareness Problem: Disconnection between Consumption and Disconnection between Consumption and

Environmental ExploitationEnvironmental Exploitation

Ecological Footprint Ecological Footprint AnalysisAnalysis

……is an accounting tool that enables us is an accounting tool that enables us to estimate the resource consumption to estimate the resource consumption and waste assimilation requirements of and waste assimilation requirements of a defined human population or economy a defined human population or economy in terms of a corresponding productive in terms of a corresponding productive land area.land area.

Changing Trajectories #2Changing Trajectories #2

Community BuildingCommunity Building Combining strengths of local relations and sense of

belonging with benefits of social freedoms, transparency, and tolerance.

Community members work toward common goal, while taking care and respecting each other.

Depends on and creates social capital (shared networks, values, trust)

Sustainable CommunitiesSustainable Communities

Local Agenda 21: thousands of villages, Local Agenda 21: thousands of villages, towns, cities and regions implementing towns, cities and regions implementing sustainability programssustainability programs

Activities include: recycling programs, Activities include: recycling programs, buildings, energy, habitat restoration, buildings, energy, habitat restoration, product design, water quality, etc.product design, water quality, etc.

Indicators for feedback on progressIndicators for feedback on progress Global community neededGlobal community needed

Society: Key PointsSociety: Key Points

Why society is at core of susdev and Why society is at core of susdev and business adaptationbusiness adaptation

Similarities and differences between Similarities and differences between society and communitysociety and community

Social trajectories and feedbacks; Social trajectories and feedbacks; examplesexamples

Society: Key PointsSociety: Key PointsIPAT equation (further examples of IPAT equation (further examples of

trajectories)trajectories) Population: understanding trends; Population: understanding trends;

demographic transitiondemographic transition Affluence: components; upgrading of Affluence: components; upgrading of

equity; China’s trajectory and implications; equity; China’s trajectory and implications; social contingencies (examples; social contingencies (examples; implications)implications)

Technology: Techno-economic paradigm; Technology: Techno-economic paradigm; difficulty of technological transformationdifficulty of technological transformation

Society: Key PointsSociety: Key PointsChanging Social Trajectories #1Changing Social Trajectories #1 Types of social movements: 1) informal Types of social movements: 1) informal

and formal; 2) livelihood and post-and formal; 2) livelihood and post-materialist (lifestyle)materialist (lifestyle)

Awareness problems 1) disconnection Awareness problems 1) disconnection between consumption and environmental between consumption and environmental exploitation (ecofootprint)exploitation (ecofootprint)

Changing Social Trajectories #2Changing Social Trajectories #2 Community buildingCommunity building Sustainable communitiesSustainable communities