Http:// The Coming Food Crisis Global food security is stretched to the breaking.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/08/26/the_coming_food_crisis?page=0,1

The Coming Food CrisisGlobal food security is stretched to the breaking point, and Russia's fires and Pakistan's floods are only making a bad situation worse.

Terrascope – Guiding Principles

• The Earth system provides a context for learning basic science and engineering concepts

• Students put those concepts to use in creative ways to understand the interdependency of physical, chemical, and biological processes that shape our planet

• Students explore how these concepts may be used to design protocols to ensure a sustainable environment

• Program emphasizes both theory and practice, and puts a premium on active learning

Terrascope – Structure

• Solving Complex Problems--Mission 2xxx

First Semester

• 1.016

• Terrascope Field Experience (Spring Break)

• Terrascope Radio

Second Semester

Solving Complex Problems

• Multidisciplinary, project-based learning experience

• Students work toward a solution to a deceptively simple problem related to Earth’s environment

• Each year’s theme is different and referred to as “Mission XXXX”, where XXXX refers to the graduation year of the class involved

Solving Complex Problems--Motivation

• To build in you the capacity to tackle the “big” problems that confront society

• To encourage you to take charge of the learning process

• To show you how to do independent research, to evaluate the quality of information sources, and to synthesize different information streams

Solving Complex Problems--Motivation

• To encourage you to think about optimal solutions rather than correct solutions

• To help you learn how to work effectively as part of a team

• To improve your communication skills using two media: the web site and the formal oral presentation

• To convince you of your potential!!

Past Missions

• Develop a viable plan for the exploration of Mars with the aim of finding evidence for life

• Design permanent, manned, underwater research laboratories and develop detailed research plans for the first six months of their operation

• Design the most environmentally sensitive strategy for hydrocarbon resource extraction from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and determine whether or not the value of the resource exceeds its financial and environmental cost

Past Missions

• To develop strategies for developing countries in the Pacific basin to cope with tsunami hazards and disasters. Due to the unique needs of each country, we specifically focused on developing plans for Peru and Micronesia.

• To develop a plan for the reconstruction of New Orleans and the management of the Mississippi River and the Gulf coast. The reconstruction of New Orleans and the management of the Mississippi River and the Gulf coast.

Past Missions

• To develop strategies to deal with the collapse of the global fisheries and the general health of the oceans

• To develop a plan to ensure the availability of fresh clean water for western North America for the next 100 years.

• Propose an integrated global solution to the rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 that will stabilize concentrations at an economically viable and internationally acceptable level.

Subject Structure

Problem divided into approximately ten tasks; students divided into teams

Each team assigned a Teaching Fellow, Alumni Mentors, and Disciplinary Mentors

Four meeting styles:

• Presentations on methodology

• Case-study discussions

• Team workshops

• Coordination meetings

Subject Deliverables

• Each student develops a personal wiki

• Each team will communicate through wiki-based structure

Each class describes and justifies its overall plan in a web site

Each class explains the design in a two-hour presentation before a panel of experts and a general audience

Mission 2011

Mission 2012

“What I have learned is that passion, along with curiosity, drives science. Passion is the mysterious force behind nearly every scientific breakthrough. Perhaps it’s because without it you might never be able to tolerate the huge amount of hard work and frustration that scientific discovery entails….”

“For the next four years you will get to poke around the corridors of your college, listen to any lecture you choose, work in a lab. The field of science you fall in love with may be so new it doesn’t even have a name yet. You may be the person who constructs a new biological species, or figures out how to stop global warming, or aging. Maybe you’ll discover life on another planet. My advice to you is this: Don’t settle for anything less.”

Nancy Hopkins, a professor of biology at M.I.T., has been teaching since 1973.

Extracted from OP-ED contribution in New York Times, September 5 2009

Subject Grading

Individual performance (30%)

Team performance (30%)

Class accomplishment (40%)

Wikis

Share files in teams, class– Avoid large attachments (please!)– All files online– Set permissions - who can read, edit– Know about others’ work

• Avoid doubling up, missing topics

– Get good quality writing early• You’ll be happy later, we promise

Wikis - structure

• One wiki

• One section per team– All read, team read/write

• One section per student inside team– All read, student read/write

Wiki - requirements

• Each student:– Keep ongoing journal as a wiki page

• Ideas, progress, problems• One or two paragraphs

– UPDATE EVERY WEEK!!!!• Each team:

– Write research online, different pages per topics

– Show progress every week

Mission 2014

Your mission is to design a plan that will produce and distribute enough food to feed the planet over the next century, while ensuring that efficiency and equity are maximized with minimal disruption to the environment.

In 2009, > 1 billion people went undernourished. Undernourishment tracks with poverty--not necessarily with lack of food.

Nature v. 466, p. 546-547

The number of hungry people had been dropping steadily for decades until the food price crisis in 2008 reversed the trend.

Population growth is slowing and overall availability of calories per person is rising. Producing enough food is possible, but not without sapping other resources, like water.

It is possible, but likely not advisable to nearly double the amount of arable land--Most of it in Latin America and Africa.

Need to do more and use less.

Increased public investment in agricultural research is crucial

Phosphate-based fertilizers have helped grow Ag in the past century, but supplies are limited.

Phosphate is often THE limiting nutrient to plant growth

Possible that reserves will vanish within the century if growth continues at 3% per year

Phosphate shortage MORE important than oil shortage?

Phosphate mining generates 10’s of billions of dollars annually

“In the case of some finite resources, such asoil, alternatives can be found. But there are currentlyno substitutes for phosphates.”

Nature v. 461, p. 716-718

Global food production is increasing but farming systems remain unchanged, undermining long-term productivity.

Immediate need to evaluate the impact of different farming systems--on more than just yield and productivity-based grounds.

Current monitoring focuses on narrow criteria that are region-specific, not global.

Does the practice:•Produce greenhouse gasses•use space efficiently•limit pesticides•limit runoff•maximize yield

“The structurewould be similar to that of the Human GenomeProject — in which hundreds of scientists atdozens of sequencing centres worldwide harmonizedtheir work while maintaining theirindependence and specialized focus.”

We need a global system to assess and compare farming practices.

In Mozambique, 13 people were killed and 150 arrested in riots resulting from a 30% hike bread prices.

What alters bread prices?drought floodingfirescommodity traders

driving up prices

“Their food security is excessively dependent on food imports whose prices are increasingly high and volatile.”

Overall food prices on the global market have increased 5% since July.

Climate change could change the way plants are pollinated and how crops are irrigated, which will affect food security

•plants flowering before bees are awake for the season•erratic rainfall leads to drought, flood, and fire

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/09/climate-change-threatens-bees-flowers-food/1

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Flooded-farm-land-southern-Punjab-Pakistan-Eight-million-people-Pakistan

"We are getting to a point where we are getting more water, more rainy days, but it's more variable, so it leads to droughts and it leads to floods,"

Non-irrigated crops are most severely hit

66% in Asia94% in Africa

Mission 2014

Recent studies by the the UN Food and Agriculture Organization suggest that the world will need at least 70% more food by 2050 and will have to produce it on less land.

Fertilizer and pesticide use is rapidly increasing

Climate change and patterns of precipitation are changing our ability to grow crops

Enhanced agriculture means greater environmental impact including increased energy use, greenhouse gas production, reliance on pest management, nutrient run-off, biodiversity loss from land conversion and monocultures, soil loss, and overall water usage. We must utilize advanced cropping techniques, and possibly even an entirely new approach to agriculture, in order to mitigate those impacts.

Mission 2014

Recently, fisheries' experts have warned that three quarters of the world’s fish stocks are in distress and nearing collapse, all the while overall marine ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating, making it more difficult for them to bounce back even if fishing were stopped. Given that fish provide more than 2.9 billion people with at least 15 per cent of their average animal protein intake, an contribute more than 50 per cent of total animal protein in many small island countries, the collapse of the fisheries will have a huge impact.

Mission 2014

• What are the consequences of doing nothing?

• Is access to food and clean water a basic human right?

Important Questions to Address

Class Structure

We will present possible team topics and allow you to “self-organize”

• Each of you will be assigned to a team, and each team will be assigned at least one upperclass teaching fellow (UTF), a library liaison, and multiple alumni mentors

• Each team will be responsible for proposing to the class one or more options for its assigned part of the solution

• Teams will work independently and will be responsible for their own solutions, although mentors and volunteer faculty resources may be called upon as “sounding boards”.

Important Contacts

Sam Bowring [email protected]

Seth Burgess [email protected]

First Assignment (Due this Friday by 2 PM)

• Do wealthy countries buy farmland in poor countries? Should this be allowed under international law?

• What country has the most number of people threatened by chronic hunger?

• Is there a conflict between growing biofuels and feeding the world?

• Do you think we should do more as a species to limit population growth?

• Why are crop subsidies an issue for food security?

• Send me a brief email ([email protected]) with your answers

Meeting Places

• Class will meet in three different places, so consult the “Syllabus” page before each class meeting to see where you will go

• THIS FRIDAY WE MEET in 3-270

• http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2014/