HT Market Assessment• HT is a trusted partner of the MNOs. Airtel (Congo-B, DRC) Tigo (Ghana, Tanzania, DRC) and Vodacom (Tanzania) have sold their tower portfolios to HT. • Additionally

1

Helios Towers:

Sub-Saharan Africa Tower Market Assessment

And Lease Up AnalysisDoc Ref: HTL HT Market Report 2019 31082019 r14

© Hardiman Telecommunications Ltd. 2019 All Rights Reserved

2

Hardiman Telecommunications Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HTL”) was engaged by Helios Towers Africa Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HT”) to

undertake a mobile market and towers market assessment, to forecast HT tenancies in Tanzania, Ghana, the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic

Republic of the Congo and to undertake a mobile market and towers market assessment in South Africa and Nigeria as per our letter of engagement. This report

(hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) presents the findings of our assessment. Our duty of care and sole liability is to HT and to no other party.

In undertaking the assessment HTL was provided with access to information provided by HT management. This Report was prepared by HTL on the basis of

information provided by HT and from third party sources. HTL's remit did not encompass assessment of the veracity or validity of the information provided. While

HTL has satisfied itself that the information contained in the Report is consistent with other information received, HTL makes no representation as to the veracity

or validity of information referenced, assessed and/ or analysed.

Some of the key findings of the Report are based on views of mobile market development, network investment, technology evolution and operating practices as

deduced from information received. HTL accepts no responsibility for the actual realisation of any market or investment forecasts or HT’s performance. Actual

results are likely to be different from those shown in this assessment of the prospective markets because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as

expected and the difference may be material.

This document does not constitute investment or financing advice to any party nor does it make recommendations as to whether HT should or should not

proceed with its intended plans for the business.

Page

3HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED3

I Executive Summary Page 3

II HT – Mobile Markets Overview Page 5

III Estimated Market Size Page 12

IV Forecast Market Demand Page 14

V Technology Forecasts Page 20

VI Deep Dive By Market Page 250.36

VII Glossary Page 50

Page

4HARDIMAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED 4

• Mobile subscriber growth is forecast for each of the markets in which HT has operations.

• Additionally in each of these markets the main MNOs are deploying 3G and 4G technologies to support the growing demand

for mobile data services. The adoption and consumption of mobile data services is increasing across all SSA mobile markets.

• The growing subscriber numbers and demand for mobile data services requires that the MNOs continue to build out network

infrastructure and build new points of service (PoS).

• HT has been operating in Africa since 2010. In that time it has built a portfolio of 6,745 active sites through acquisition and Build

to Suit and by the end of 2018 was hosting 13,014 tenants (not including South Africa).

• In 2018, despite MNO consolidation in two of the markets of operation, HT active sites grew by 3.5% and tenancies grew by

4.2% (not including South Africa).

• HT is a trusted partner of the MNOs. Airtel (Congo-B, DRC) Tigo (Ghana, Tanzania, DRC) and Vodacom (Tanzania) have sold

their tower portfolios to HT.

• Additionally all the major MNOs in their markets of operation use HT to build new sites (“B2S” or Build to Suit) and are colocated

on HT towers.

• In three of HT’s markets of operation (DRC, Tanzania and Congo-B) it is the only independent TowerCo. Ghana has three

independent TowerCos (HT, American Tower and Eaton Towers, nevertheless the potential for lease up on the HT towers in

Ghana is good given its urban weighted portfolio and HT has secured notable B2S contract wins.

• Zonal analysis of the HT towers indicates that they are well located and are good candidates for MNO lease up.

Growing mobile

markets driving the

demand for mobile

towers.

HT is well

established and is

the trusted partner of

all the major MNOs.

Executive Summary – Key Takeaways

Incremental Subscribers 2018-2024 Incremental PoS 2018-2024

Tanzania 14.4m 5,084

DRC 24.9m 3,829

Ghana 5.5m 2,740

Congo-B 1.2m 375

South Africa 8.4m 7,020

Source: HT Management, HTL Analysis

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40.0

43.5 45.9

48.2 50.7

53.2 55.6

57.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Tanzania Mobile Subscriptions Forecast (m)[Hardiman Analysis]

Tanzania – Summary – Mobile Market

Mobile market is forecast to grow to 57.9m by 2024

Tanzania’s mobile market grew strongly during 2018: 3.5 m subscriptions (+9% YoY).

We expect the Mobile market to grow to 57.9m by 2024 (2018-2024 CAGR of +4.9%) – an average of 2.4m new net adds per year over the forecast period.

Continued strong subscriber growth is projected for Vodacom and Tigo.

Source: Regulator, MNO, Hardiman Analysis

9.4 9.4 10.3 11.8 12.7 12.4 12.9 14.1

5.5 6.0 6.08.2

10.4 11.7 11.112.6

1.5 3.1 1.81.7

1.4 1.1 0.91.2

7.08.4 9.0

9.611.0 10.5 10.9

11.01.2

3.4 3.8

3.91.6 0.8 0.1

0.1

0.10.1 0.1

0.2

0.2 0.2 0.30.6

23.526.9 27.1

31.4

38.540.0 40.0 43.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tanzania Mobile Market Subscriptions (m)

Vodacom TiGO Zantel Mobile Airtel Halotel Smart TTCL Mobile

33%

29%3%

25%

9%

0% 1%

Tanzania Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE2018

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DRC – Summary – Mobile Market

Mobile market is forecast to grow to 62.6m by 2024

Mobile market is recovering from steep decline in penetration during 2016, when the number of mobile subscriptions declined by 9 m. The integration of

Tigo by Orange is now complete. Both Vodacom and Orange launched 4G services in 2018. We anticipate that Airtel and Africell will deploy 4G

equipment in the future. Assuming no material deterioration in political and macroeconomic conditions in the medium term, we project mobile market to

grow to 63 m by 2024 – an average of 4.2 m new net adds per year.

Decrease due to eeffects of:

• Ddeactivation of inactive SIMs by MNOs

• SIM registration requirements

Source: Regulator, MNO Data, Hardiman Analysis

5.1 7.1 8.811.5 11.8 9.7 12.0 12.8

6.27.4

7.6

9.2 8.16.8

9.310.3

2.4

3.03.9

5.1 5.3

1.5

1.81.8

4.3 5.3

7.3

9.110.6

0.0

0.9

3.7

7.0 5.8

3.9

3.5

4.0

15.3

20.3

25.8

37.1 36.3

27.6

33.8

37.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

DRC Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m)

Vodacom Airtel Tigo Orange Africell

Vodacom34%

Orange28%

Airtel27%

Africell10%

DRC Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE 2018 E

12.0 12.8 14.05 15.2 16.4 17.7 19.0 20.4

9.3 10.311.33

12.413.6

14.916.2

17.69.1

10.611.06

12.113.3

14.515.8

17.2

33.8

37.740.9

44.8

48.9

53.3

57.9

62.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

DRC Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast[HTL Analysis]

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Ghana – Summary – Mobile Market

Mobile market is forecast to grow to 44m subscriptions by 2024

Mobile penetration in Ghana is among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa: estimated 129% at YE 2018. It is a vibrant mobile market with four established

international MNOs active. MTN is the market leader. Airtel-Tigo merged in October 2017, creating a strong challenger to Vodafone for 2nd position in

market. The number of subscriptions declined sharply in 2017. However, market growth resumed in 2018 and is forecast to continue – driven by the

demand for data services. This will drive demand for additional operator PoS.


11.7 12.9 13.916.3

19.315.7 17.7

5.36.0

7.17.6

8.3

9.09.8

3.74.0

4.1

4.9

5.3

3.23.4

3.7

4.8

4.6

9.7

10.3

1.61.5

1.5

1.4

0.7

0.8

0.7

25.628.0

30.4

35.0

38.3

35.2

38.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions by Operator (m)[Sources: MNOs, NCA, HTL Analysis]

MTN Vodafone Tigo Airtel AirtelTigo Glo Mobile Expresso

46%

25%

27%

2%

Ghana Mobile Subscriber Market Shares at YE2018E (%)

15.7 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1

35.2

38.540.1

41.4 42.4 43.0 43.5 44.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024

Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m)[HTL Analysis]

2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

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Congo-B – Summary – Mobile Market

Mobile market is forecast to grow to 6.0m subscriptions by 2024

Azur exited the mobile market in Congo-B in 2018. Prior to Azur’s exit MTN and Airtel had an effective duopoly – the Azur exit had limited impact

Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 1.2m between 2018 and 2024.


1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5

1.7 1.5

2.2 1.92.1

2.3 2.30.6 1.10.2

0.3 0.4 0.30.3

0.24.3

4.74.6 4.4 4.8

5.1 4.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Congo B Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m)

MTN Airtel Warid Azur

MTN51%

Airtel49%

Congo B Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%) YE 2018

2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1

2.3 2.32.4

2.52.6

2.7 2.8 2.8

5.1 4.85.0

5.2 5.4

5.6 5.86.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Congo B Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m)[Hardiman Analysis]

MTN Airtel Azur

2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

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South Africa – Mobile Market – Overview

Vibrant market, including four major operators. Mobile penetration is high: 179%.

South Africa’s mobile market is highly penetrated: 179% at YE 2018 (103 m subscriptions). There are four significant operators active in South Africa:

Vodacom, MTN, Cell C and Telkom SA. In addition there is an active MVNO segment: currently most MNVOs are hosted on the Cell C network.

• South Africa has four significant operators: Vodacom, MTN, Cell C and

Telkom SA. All operators are achieving subscriber growth.

• Penetration is extremely high: 174% at YE 2018 (100 m mobile

subscriptions in a population of 58 m).

• Mobile ARPU is high relative to other SSA markets: Vodacom reported

ARPU of ZAR 95 ($US 7.0) in 3Q2018; MTN reported ZAR 98 ($US 7.1)

for the same period.

• Vodacom is market leader by subscriptions: 43.8m subscriptions at YE

2018: +2.2 m net adds YoY (+5.4%).

• MTN has the second largest share. MTN benefited from a very strong final

quarter in 2018. It reported with 29.5m subscriptions at end 3Q2018 but

added 1.7m subscribers in Q4 to finish the year at 31.2m.

• The subscriber base of 3rd MNO Cell C declined steeply during 2015

Modest subscriber growth has resumed. Blue Label Telecoms acquired a

45% stake in Cell C for ZAR 5.5b in mid-2017 as part of the mobile

operator’s recapitalisation plan.

• 4th operator Telkom SA has achieved strong subscriber growth since 2016.

It reported 5.2m subscriptions at end March 2018. Between March 2018

and March 2019 the Telkom mobile customer base increased by 86% to

9.7m. Year end 2018 subscriber estimate is 8.6m

• South Africa features a dynamic MVNO segment, with up to 10 active

players. The most high-profile MVNOs are Virgin Mobile, Hello Mobile,

FNB (First National Bank) Mobile and most recently Lycamobile. To date

most MVNOs in the South African market have been hosted on the Cell C

network.


68.874.4

83.5 82.588.4

94.8102.6

129%137%

152% 148%157%

167%179%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

South Africa Mobile Subscriptions (m) and Penetration (%)

Subscriptions (m) Mobile Penetration (%)

29.5 31.0 31.4 34.1 36.4 41.6 43.8

25.4 25.7 28.030.6 30.8

29.5 31.210.113.6

19.6 12.815.3

16.317.2

1.51.7

2.1 2.63.6

4.98.6

…

2.4

2.4 2.4 2.4

2.5

1.8

68.8

74.48… 82.5

88.494.8

102.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

South Africa Market Subscriptions (m)

Vodacom MTN Cell C Telkom SA Other

Page


Mobile Market – Unique Subscribers

32%

37%

40%

41%

44%

45%

46%

48%

49%

49%

50%

51%

53%

67%

Niger

DRC

Tanzania

Angola

Uganda

Burkina Faso

Zambia

Rwanda

Nigeria

Congo B

Cameroon

Kenya

Ghana

South Africa

Unique Subscriber Penetration (YE 2018E)Source: GSMA 1Q2019

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.5

Angola

Uganda

DRC

Niger

Cameroon

Nigeria

Rwanda

Tanzania

Kenya

Zambia

Congo B

Burkina Faso

Ghana

South Africa

SIMs per Unique Subscriber (YE 2018E)Source: GSMA 1Q2019

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Tower Sector – Tanzania, DRC and Congo-B

• An Independent TowerCo has been active in Tanzania since 2010 when

HT acquired 1,020 towers from Tigo. HT subsequently acquired 1,149

towers from Vodacom and has built to suit more that 1,278 towers for

Vodacom and Tigo.

• HT has been active as the sole independent TowerCo in DRC since 2010.

It entered the market by acquiring towers from Tigo.

• HT has further consolidated their market leading position in DRC with the

acquisition of 696 towers from Airtel in 2016. As part of this contract HT

also acquired management rights over an additional 271 Airtel sites. Since

2016 HT has acquired 200 of these sites and expects to fully acquire these

the remaining sites.

• HT entered the Congo B market in 2015 following the acquisition of 369

greenfield towers and 24 rooftop towers from Airtel. HT is the only

independent towerco active in the market.

• Infrastructure sharing was a feature of the market prior to the entry of HT.

34%, 40% and 90% of MTN, Azur and Airtel PoS are colocated on 3rd

party sites – Airtel proportion of colocated PoS is highest as a result of the

HT transaction.

1. Source: HT, MNOs

380, 49%

298, 39%

47, 6%

48, 6%

Marketable Towers Congo-B YE 2018 Estimate

1,773 , 63%

737 , 26%

250, 9%

42, 2%

Marketable Towers DRC 2018

2,802

Marketable

Towers

3,613 , 64%

Tigo, 344 , 6%

1,399 , 25%

200 , 4%Smart, 54 , 1%

Marketable Towers Tanzania 20181

5,610 Marketable

Towers

773

Marketable

Towers

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HT Tanzania – Market Demand

An additional 5,084 operator PoS estimated to support the forecast subscriber growth

Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 14.4 m between 2018 and 2024.

Growing mobile subscribers and site deployment required to support data demand will drive the demand for new operator PoS – 16,920 forecast for

2024

• Tanzania’s mobile market grew

strongly during 2018: 3.5 m

subscriptions (+9% YoY).

• Mobile penetration at YE 2018 was

72% - below the average sub

Saharan African penetration level of

73%.

• Halotel, the most recent entrant,

subscriber growth slowed

significantly in 2018.

• We forecast that subscriber growth

will be sustained throughout the

period 2018 to 2024.

• Mobile penetration is expected to

grow from 72% in 2018 to 81% in

2024.

• Mobile subscriber growth is a driver

of demand for additional Operator

PoS.

• Continued roll-out of 3G and higher

uptake of recently launched 4G

services are projected to drive further

subscriber growth and is expected to

drive some site densification.

11,836 12,50213,203

13,93614,716

15,66716,920

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MNO PoS Forecast

12.9 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.7

12.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6

10.9 11.0

11.3 11.7

12.1 12.4

12.8 13.1

3.8 3.9

4.1 4.3

4.5 4.8

5.1 5.4

40.0

43.5 45.9

48.2 50.7

53.2 55.6

57.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Tanzania Mobile Subscriptions Forecast (m)[Hardiman Analysis]


2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


HT DRC – Market Demand

An additional 3,829 operator PoS estimated to support the forecast subscriber growth

Mobile market subscriber numbers in the DRC grew 6.2 m in 2017 – The 3 largest MNOs all reported large subscriber increases.

Market growth was sustained through 2018 and is forecast to continue. Mobile subscriber numbers are projected to grow by 24.9m between 2018 and

2024.

Growing mobile subscribers and MNO planned network investments are expected to drive the demand for new operator PoS – 9,470 forecast for 2024

• The mobile market in DRC dipped

in 2016 as a result of a number of

factors:

• 2017 witnessed a return to

subscriber growth. Net market

adds of 6.2m were reported for the

year. The 2017 growth was

sustained through 2018.

• Mobile penetration in DRC is very

low – 44% at year end 2017.

• We forecast the mobile penetration

will grow to 61% by 2024.

Source: Hardiman Analysis

8.8

8.0

7.0

33.4

5,6416,168

6,6897,323

7,9348,625

9,470

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MNO PoS Forecast

12.0 12.8 14.05 15.2 16.4 17.7 19.0 20.4

9.3 10.311.33

12.413.6

14.916.2

17.69.1

10.611.06

12.113.3

14.515.8

17.2

3.5

3.954.46

5.0

5.6

6.2

6.8

7.5

33.8

37.740.9

44.8

48.9

53.3

57.9

62.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

DRC Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast[Hardiman Analysis]


2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


HT Ghana – Market Demand

An additional 2,740 operator PoS indicated to support the forecast subscriber growth

Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 5.5 m between 2018 and 2024.

Growing mobile subscribers and data related site densification will drive the demand for new operator PoS – 10,555 forecast for 2024

• The mobile market is Ghana is

mature and has entered a market

consolidation phase.

• In 2017 Airtel and Tigo announced

that they would merge to form a

single opco Airtel-Tigo.

• The mobile market contracted in

Ghana in 2017.

• Market growth resumed in 2018

and further growth is forecast

• MNO POS numbers were

impacted by the consolidation. The

combined Airtel-Tigo network

reduced POS numbers from 2,441

in 2017 to 1,617 in 2018.

• Much of the MNO network activity

is expected to be driven by the

rollout of 3G and 4G networks

15.7 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1

9.09.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3

9.7

10.310.8 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.0

35.2

38.540.1

41.4 42.4 43.0 43.5 44.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024

Ghana Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m)[HTL Analysis]

7,8158,251

8,6699,088

9,54410,021

10,555

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MNO PoS Forecast

Source: NCA, MNO, Hardiman Analysis

2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


HT Congo-B – Market Demand

Modest market growth will drive the demand for an additional 375 operator PoS

Mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to grow by 1.2m between 2018 and 2024

Growing mobile subscribers will drive the demand for new operator PoS – 1,422 forecast for 2024

• Congo-B is effectively a two-player

mobile market : MTN and Airtel.

• Azur made little impact and exited

the market in 2018.

• The mobile market contracted

marginally in 2018 as a result of

the Azur market exit

• Subscriber growth is expected to

resume in 2018 .

• Mobile penetration is expected to

grow from 88% in 2018 to 94% in

2024.

• The forecast subscriber growth is

expected to drive the demand for

additional operator PoS.


2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1

2.3 2.32.4

2.52.6 2.7 2.8 2.8

0.215.1 4.8

5.05.2

5.45.6 5.8

6.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Congo B Mobile Market Subscriptions Forecast (m)[Hardiman Analysis]

1,0471,101 1,135

1,1931,255

1,3251,422

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MNO PoS Forecast

2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


41.6 43.8 44.2 44.5 44.8 45.1 45.4 45.6

29.531.2 31.3 31.5 31.6 31.8 31.9 32.0

16.317.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2

4.98.6 9.9 11.1 12.1 12.6 12.7 12.8

2.5

1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.394.8102.6 104.7

106.7 108.3 109.6 110.3 111.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

South Africa Mobile Market Subscription Forecast (m)

32,171 33,05834,255 35,364

36,59537,863

39,191

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MNO PoS Forecast

South Africa – Market Demand

Market growth is expected to drive the demand for an additional 7,020 operator PoS by 2024

Mobile penetration is very high in South Africa. Increases in PoS numbers will be driven by demand for high quality data services and increased

utilisation of mobile data services.


2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

• Mobile market subscriptions are

forecast to grow to 111 m by 2024

– an average of 1.4 m new net

adds per year.

• Vodacom, MTN and CellC are

projected to achieve only modest

subscriber growth.

• Telkom is expected to continue to

grow subscribers and market

share albeit at a lower growth rate

that the 49% CAGR achieved

between 2015 and 2018.

• We forecast an additional 8.4m

subscribers will join the South

African mobile market by 2024.

This along with increasing data

usage and infill sites required to

improve data QoS will drive the

demand for an estimated additional

7,020 PoS to accommodate growth

in voice and data traffic..

2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page









Page


11,424 11,879 12,350 12,830 13,331 13,964 14,777

8,0409,571

11,17612,547

13,21713,859

15,236

1,634

3,483

5,356

8,832

11,730

13,453

15,878

21,098

24,933

28,882

34,209

38,278

41,276

45,891

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Tanzania Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

2G 3G LTE

Tanzania – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand

An additional 24,793 Network PoS are expected to be built between 2018 and 2024

Network PoS growth will be driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE.

Operator PoS growth is expected to come from additional coverage sites and 3G/4G infill sites as MNOs densify their data networks.

Network PoS will grow as MNOs install 3G and 4G equipment on existing 2G sites and on new sites.


2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


5,415 5,805 6,174 6,627 7,033 7,462 8,014

4,7815,362

6,1126,843

7,4458,213

9,207

1,047

1,858

3,334

5,840

7,535

8,210

9,017

11,243

13,025

15,620

19,310

22,013

23,885

26,238

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

DRC Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

2G 3G LTE

DRC – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand


Network PoS growth will be driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE sites.

Operator PoS growth is expected to come from additional coverage sites and 3G infill sites as MNOs densify their data networks.


2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


7,536 7,586 7,829 8,070 8,346 8,641 8,987

7,0237,888

8,4168,850

9,1539,487

10,021

1,286

1,846

3,081

5,251

6,4967,120

7,881

15,845

17,320

19,326

22,171

23,995

25,248

26,889

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Ghana Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

2G 3G LTE

Ghana – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand


Network PoS growth is expected to be driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE sites. At year end 2018 there were an estimated 1,286 LTE PoS in

Ghana



2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


1,022 1,057 1,096 1,136 1,188 1,260 1,345

933 1,001 1,0221,094

1,1571,202

1,305237

368513

669

845

1,069

1,301

2,192

2,426

2,631

2,899

3,190

3,531

3,951

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Congo-B Total Market Technology Network PoS Forecast

2G 3G LTE

Congo-B – Market and Tower Forecasts – Network PoS Demand


Network PoS growth is likely to driven primarily by the rollout of 3G and LTE sites.



2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page









Page


DRC – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary

4 main operators: market leader has 35% market share, two MNOs have 27-28% each, 4th has 10%.

Item Vodacom Airtel Orange Africell

Licence Date 1999 2000 2001 2012

Number of PoS YE 2018 2,439 1,411 1,491 275

Subscribers YE 2018E 12.8 m 10.3 m 10.6 m 4.0 m

Market Share 35% 28% 27% 10%

Revenue Share (FY 2017) 42% 25% 25% 8%

Technology 900/1800/2100 900/1800/2100 900/1800/2100 900/1800/2100

Comment

Strong subscriber and

network growth.

Claims highest average

3G data download

speeds in market

(5.7Mbit/s). At least 30%

3G coverage.

4G launched in May 2018

– initial roll-out in urban

centres.

Airtel had been market leader

until 2012, but suffered from

market entry of Africell.

Airtel does not yet have a 4G

offering. This puts it at a

competitive disadvantage to

Vodacom and Orange.

Combination of Orange/Tigo

spectrum allocations led to

improved coverage – notably

for mobile broadband

services.

4G launched in May 2018 –

initial roll-out in urban

centres.

Africell’s strategy is built

around “Community

involvement”.

Africell marketing mix

involves intensive use of

social media and mobile data

platforms. Marketing

proposition is strongly

centred on low price and

youth segment.

Source: ARPTC, Hardiman Analysis, MNOs, HT Data

Page


Following acquisition of Tigo subscribers by Orange in 2016, the DRC market features four strong players. Vodacom (35% share) is market leader. Airtel

(28%) and Orange (27%) contend for 2nd place. Africell (11%) continues to challenge, but ARPU is lower. Vodacom and Orange have launched 4G.

Subscriber Market Share

• Vodacom is market leader with 35% subscriber share at YE 2018

• Airtel (now 28%) had been market leader prior to Africell’s entry into the

market in November 2012. Airtel’s performance has been static ever since.

• The acquisition of Tigo by Orange from Millicom in 2016 created a player

of significant scale, capable of contending with Airtel for second position in

the DRC mobile market. However, Orange revenues have been static at

€60m per quarter despite growth in customer base:

• Africell entered the mobile market in late 2012. Within 2 years, by YE2014,

Africell had won 7.0m subscribers.

• There is intense competition between the four main operators. At the same

time these operators avoid aggressive competition on price as a response

to the fall in disposable income of their subscriber bases. There is

awareness that this would risk damaging the market over the longer term.

• 3G was launched in 2012, stimulating demand for infill sites in the DRC.

• Both Vodacom and Orange finally obtained 4G licences in May 2018 – after

years of delay by NRA ARPTC. Both had already been testing the service,

and both announced commercial launches of 4G, initially in Kinshasa,

during that same month - May 2018.

Mobile Market Characteristics

DRC – Mobile Market – Operators

Three major MNOs – Vodacom, Orange, Airtel – share 89% of subscriptions. Africell 11%.

Source: Regulator, MNOs, Hardiman Forecasts

Vodacom35%

Orange27%

Airtel28%

Africell11%

DRC Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE 2018 E

34% 35% 34% 31% 33% 35% 35% 35%

40% 36%29%

25% 22%25% 27% 28%

16%15%

15%14% 15%

10%9%

7%12% 15%

26%27% 27%

4%14% 19% 16% 14% 10% 11%

1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

DRC Mobile Subscriber Market Shares

Vodacom Airtel Tigo Orange Africell Others

Page


DRC – Mobile Market – Overview

Recovery in mobile penetration continued during 2018 – scope for further growth, as 4G launched

Mobile market is recovering from steep decline in penetration during 2016, when the number of mobile subscriptions declined by 9 m. SIM registration

process is now more efficient. The integration of Tigo by Orange is now complete. Both Vodacom and Orange launched 4G services in 2018. However,

disposable incomes in DRC remain low: the Congolese Franc continues to depreciates against $US. This acts as a restraint on ARPU growth.

• DRC mobile penetration (active SIMs) declined from 47% at YE 2015 to

34% YE 2016, but has recovered steadily to 44% by YE2018E. Remains

among the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa – regional average is 73% at YE

2017.

• The arrival of Africell in the market from late 2012 added particular

impetus to market subscriber growth – notably to YE2014. During 2016 all

operators reported steep declines in subscription.

• Key factors behind the decline in subscriptions:

• The government’s SIM registration programme: Many SIMs were

deactivated, as required by government policy. New sales were

hindered by operational teething problems of SIM registration process.

• Change by MNOs in methodology of recognising and counting SIMs

• Orange acquisition of Tigo, formally completed in 4Q2016.

Consolidation of the 2 entities resulted in a further reduction in active

SIM numbers, as holders of dual SIMs relinquished one of them.

• The effects of the SIM registration have largely passed. Subscriber

growth has resumed.

• All operators independently report continued subscriber growth during

2018, in line with ARPTC statements.

• We base our analysis on ‘active SIMs’ - SIMs that have had a

chargeable event within an MNO-designated time frame, typically 90

days. In some cases ARPTC quotes a higher figure for subscriptions

than that reported by the MNO. In these cases we adopt the more

conservative MNO figure.

• Subscriber growth rate in DRC exceeds net population growth growth

rate. The mobile penetration rate will increase as a result. We expect it

converge upon average African penetration levels over the medium to

longer term.

• The launch of 4G services by both Vodacom and Orange during 2Q2018

will accelerate data service growth.

Source: Regulator, MNOs, Hardiman Forecasts

5.1 7.1 8.811.5 11.8 9.7

12.0 12.86.2

7.47.6

9.2 8.1

6.8

9.310.3

2.4

3.03.9

5.1 5.3

1.5

1.81.8

4.3 5.3

7.3

9.110.6

0.0

0.9

3.7

7.0 5.8

3.9

3.5

4.0

15.3

20.3

25.8

37.1 36.3

27.6

33.8

37.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

DRC Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m)

Vodacom Airtel Tigo Orange Africell

15.3

20.3

25.8

37.1 36.3

27.6

33.837.723%

29%36%

49%47%

34%41% 44%

51%57%

63% 68% 73% 72% 73%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1

11

21

31

41

51

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

DRC Mobile Subscriptions (m) and PenetrationSources: ARPTC, MNOs, ITU, UN

DRC subs m DRC Penetration % SSA Average Penetration %

Page


DRC – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration

Mobile penetration rate of 61% achievable by 2024 – 63 m mobile market subscriptions

Summary of HTL forecast assumptions:

• Population at YE2017 was 82.7m. Projected to

increase to 102.7m by YE2024 (+3.1% CAGR).

[Source: UN Population Division].

• Mobile subscriber penetration at YE2017 was 41%

(33.8m subscriptions). Projected to increase to 62.6m

by 2024 (+9.2% CAGR)

Commentary on Assumptions:

a) Population

• We accept the UN view that the starting point

estimates of DRC’s National Statistics Institute (INS)

are too high. Instead of INS mid-year 2015 85.0m, we

have adopted UN 76.2m. However, there is general

agreement on projected growth rate to 2024: +3.1% -

+3.2% CAGR.

b) Mobile Penetration

• DRC mobile penetration at YE2017 (41%) is well

correlated with GDP per capita ($US 478) when

benchmarked against peer markets.

• The IMF WEO’s most recent forecast (Oct-18) projects

modest growth in Nominal GDP per Capita to $US 525

in 2023 (+1.6% CAGR)

• Mobile penetration in the >60% range has already been

achieved in Sub-Saharan markets with similar (or

lower) levels of GDP per capita, notably:

• Sierra Leone: 2017 Penetration 84%, 2016 GDP per

Capita $US 488,

33.837.7

40.944.8

48.953.3

57.962.6

41%44%

46%49%

52%55%

58%61%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

DRC Mobile Subscriptions (m) and Penetration (%)

Mobile Subscriptions m Penetration (%)

R² = 0.0821

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Mobile

Penetr

atio

n (

World

Bank)

Nominal GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF WEO October 2017]

Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets at YE 2017 (%)vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices)

DRC 2017

DRC 2020

DRC 2023

Other HTA markets 2017

Source: Regulator, MNOs, World Bank, ITU, UN, Hardiman Forecasts

Page


Tanzania – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary

11 licensed operators in Tanzania but only 6 are operational

Category Vodacom Airtel Tigo / Zantel Halotel TTCL Smart

Licence Date 2000 2001 1994 2008 2006 2007

Number of POS

(YE 2018 Estimate)3,018 2,127 3,030 2,923 TBC TBC

Subscribers

(YE 2018)14.0m 11.0m

13.7m (12.6m

Tigo, 1.2m Zantel)3.9m 0.6m 0.1m

Market Share

(YE 2018)33% 25%

32% (28.9% Tigo,

2.7% Zantel)9% 1.3% 0.3%

Comment

Vodacom

continues to invest

actively in TZ

market.

25% of company

shares were

floated on DSE in

August 2017,

raising $210m.

Airtel investment in

TZ market has

slowed.

Has lost market

share due to

complex customer

registration

process and strong

price competition.

Tigo investment in

TZ market still

strong despite

uncertain strategic

focus from owner

Millicom Group.

In early 2019

Millicom applied to

Fair Competition

Commission (FCC)

to increase holding

in Zantel to 99.9%.

Halotel continues to

invest actively in TZ

market.

Main focus is on rural

connectivity. Halotel

has stated that it plans

to deploy 300 3G and

500 4G sites during

2019.

100% government-

owned since Jun-

16, when Bharti

Airtel sold own 35%

stake.

Launched 4G LTE

services in 2015

and LTE-A in 2016.

Smart launched as

mobile operator

subsidiary of the

Aga Khan fund for

Economic

Development

(AKFED) in 2014.

Subscriber base

reached 1.6m at YE

2015, but has now

dwindled to near

zero.

Sources: TCRA, MNOs, Hardiman Analysis

Page


89% of mobile subscriptions are held by 3 MNOs: Vodacom (33%), Tigo plus acquisition Zantel (32%) and Airtel (25%). Further consolidation in the

market is possible: long-term plans of Millicom and Bharti Airtel are uncertain. 4th player Halotel (Viettel Group) remains committed to the market.


• Four major international MNOs operate in Tanzania:

• Three of these accounted for 89% of active SIMs at YE 2018: Vodacom

(33% subscriber market share), Tigo/Zantel (32%) and Airtel (25%).

• The 4th significant MNO is Halotel, owned by Viettel Group. Halotel

entered the market in 2015. It rapidly won 9% market share but its

share has stabilised at this level.

• Fixed-line incumbent TTCL has focused on the mobile segment since

2017. Subscriptions have increased from 0.2 m at YE 2016 to 0.6 m at

YE 2018 (1.3% subscriber market share).

• Consolidation has been a key feature of Tanzania’s mobile market:

• Tigo acquired Zantel (main operator on Zanzibar archipelago) during

2015. The two operators continue to operate for the time being under

their former brand identities.

• Of 11 registered operators only 7 are active.

• Mobile market ARPU is low but stable: Vodacom reported average ARPU

of $US 2.7 for 2018. Voice remains the largest component of ARPU, but

data share is growing.

• There is strong uptake of of Mobile financial services (MFS). MFS is a key

driver of mobile subscriber growth. This reflects low penetration of standard

banking facilities in Tanzania. The TCRA reported 23.3 m mobile money

subscriptions at YE 2018 – equivalent to 54% of total mobile subscriptions.

Vodacom M-Pesa is market leader with 9.0m subscriptions (39% market

share); Tigo Pesa / Zantel Ezy Pesa 7.6 m and 0.5 m respectively

(combined share 35%), Airtel Money 4.8 m (21%), Halotel 1.3 m (6%).


Tanzania – Mobile Market – Operators

Three established international MNOs account for 89% of SIMs. Viettel continues to invest.


40% 35% 38% 38% 33% 31% 32% 33%

23%22% 22% 26%

27% 29% 28% 29%

6%11% 7% 5%

4% 3% 2% 3%

30% 31% 33% 30%29% 26% 27% 25%

3% 9% 10% 9%4% 2% 0.3% 0.3%

0.8%1.3%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tanzania Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%)


33%

29%3%

25%

9%

0% 1%

Tanzania Mobile Subscriber Market Share YE2018

Page


23.526.9 27.1

31.4

38.5 40.0 40.043.5

49%54% 53%

59%

70% 71% 69%72%

51%

57%

63%68%

73% 72% 73%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tanzania Mobile Subscriptions (m) and Penetration (%) [Sources: TCRA, MNOs, ITU, UN Population Division]

TZA Active Subs (m) TZA Penetration % Sub-Saharan Africa Penetration %

Tanzania – Mobile Market – Overview

Market subscriber growth recovered during 2018: +9% YoY

Tanzania’s mobile market grew strongly during 2018: 3.5 m subscriptions (+9% YoY). The effects of the TCRA SIM registration programme have

passed; market rebalancing following aggressive 2015 sales activity; MNOs in process of listing 25% of shares on DSE, as required by government.

Uncertainty among market players as Millicom considers its participation in Africa markets. Azam announced mobile market entry but no date indicated.

• Tanzania mobile penetration reached 72% at YE2018. This remains

slightly below the average penetration rate for the Sub-Saharan Africa

(73% at YE 2017). Further scope for subscriber growth is indicated.

• 2015 had seen exceptional subscriber growth: +7.1m (+23% YoY). This

was driven by market entry of Halotel (Viettel Group) and Smart.

Attractive promotions drove take-up of new SIMs.

• Subscriber growth slowed in 2016 (1.5m net adds or +4% YoY) and

stalled completely in 2017. Reasons for slowdown include: cancellation

of unregistered SIMs; consolidation of Tigo and Zantel subscriber bases

after 2015 merger; blocking of nearly 2 m counterfeit handsets by TCRA;

higher than usual churn as a result of aggressive promotions.

• Strong subscriber growth resumed in 2018: +3.5 m (+8.9% YoY). This

growth was shared between two MNOs: market leader Vodacom and

Tigo/Zantel. Tigo/Zantel achieved strongest YoY growth (+1.7m), vs.

Vodacom +1.3m. Airtel’s subscriber base is stable - c. 11m since 2015.

• All MNOs are required by a 2016 law to float at least 25% of stock on the

Dar Stock Exchange (DSE). The rationale is to improve transparency, as

well as given citizens the opportunity to invest in a rising sector. Vodacom

is the only MNO to have complied to date. Tigo’s flotation was delayed by

an ownership dispute, but is due to take place in 2019. Airtel’s IPO is

problematic due to the company’s high level of accumulated losses.

• Continued roll-out of 3G and higher uptake of recently launched 4G

services are projected to drive further subscriber growth. Tigo 4G LTE

services have been available in 24 urban locations since 2015 – Tigo

announced LTE-A launch (4G+) in September 2018. Vodacom formally

received its 4G licence in July 2018 – it will deploy in the 700MHz band.

• In June 2018 Bakhresa Group, operator of AzamTV, announced intention

to enter the mobile market under the Azam brand, promising “high quality

services at very affordable rates for all Tanzanians”. Azam plans to use

2x10 MHz in 700 MHz band for which Bakhresa paid $US 10 m at

auction. However, no further details re launch date have been provided.


9.4 9.4 10.3 11.8 12.7 12.4 12.9 14.1

5.5 6.0 6.08.2

10.4 11.7 11.112.6

1.5 3.1 1.81.7

1.4 1.1 0.91.2

7.08.4 9.0

9.611.0 10.5 10.9

11.01.2

3.4 3.8

3.91.6 0.8 0.1

0.1

0.10.1 0.1

0.2

0.2 0.2 0.30.6

23.526.9 27.1

31.4

38.540.0 40.0 43.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tanzania Mobile Market Subscriptions (m)


Page


Tanzania – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration

Mobile penetration rate of 80% achievable by 2024 – over 57m mobile market subscriptions


• Population at YE2017 - 58.2m. Projected to increase to

71.6m by YE2024 (+3.0% CAGR) [Source: UN]


(40.0 m subscriptions). Projected to increase to 81%

(57.9 m subscriptions) by 2024 (+5.5% CAGR)


a) Population

• The last census was conducted in 2012. National

Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a mid-year 2012

population of 44.9m. However, the UN Population

Division restated this as 49.1m, citing methodological

issues with NBS approach.

• We adopt the UN estimates and forecasts, which

envisage an annual growth rate of 3.1% in 2017

reducing gradually to 3.0% by 2024.


• Tanzania’s current mobile penetration (69% at YE2017,

72% at YE2018) is well correlated with GDP per capita

($US 1,034) when benchmarked against peer markets.

• IMF forecasts Tanzania GDP per capita to grow to

$US1,481 by 2023 (+6.2% CAGR), with mobile

penetration growing to 79% by 2023.

• Mobile penetration above 80% has already been

achieved in some sub-Saharan markets with similar (or


• Mauritania: 2017 Penetration 83%, 2017 GDP per

Capita $US 1,243

• Zimbabwe : 2017 Penetration 84%, 2017 GDP per

Capita $US 1,185

40.0 40.043.5

45.948.2 50.7

53.255.6

57.971% 69%72% 74% 76% 77% 79% 80% 81%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Tanzania Mobile Market Subscriber and Penetration Forecast (m, %)[HTL Analysis]

Mobile Subscribers m Penetration (%)

R² = 0.0762

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Mobile

Penetr

atio

n (

World

Bank)

GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF WEO Oct-18]

Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets 2017 (%)vs. GDP per Capita ($US, current prices)

Tanzania 2017

Tanzania 2020

Tanzania 2023

2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Source: Regulator, MNOs, ITU, IMF-WEO, Hardiman Analysis

Page


Tanzania – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband

Mobile broadband penetration growing strongly – 33% at YE 2017 – well above SSA average (26%)

Over 22 m mobile wireless internet users at YE 2018 – equivalent to 51% of total mobile subscriptions (up from 48% at YE 2017)

MBB population coverage in Tanzania is now among the highest in the region at 85% (3G) at YE 2017. 4G coverage still low, however, at 13%.

• Tanzania’s NRA TCRA reports 23.1 m Internet users (connections) at YE

2018. Of these 96% (22.3 m) were mobile wireless.

• Mobile broadband user numbers grew at a 5-year CAGR of +24% from

2013 to 2018. 2018 YoY growth was +17% (+3.3 m users)

• Continued roll out of 3G and 4G networks will drive further take-up, subject

to availability of affordable smartphones

• Subscriptions to other Internet technologies had declined to YE2015 but

recovered during 2016, in line with the demand for fixed broadband and the

availability of LTE:

• Fixed wireless: from 1.2m at YE 2016 to 3.5m at YE 2017: +184% YoY.

• Fixed wired: from 0.6m at YE 2016 to 0.5m at YE 2016: -18% CAGR.

3.76.0 7.5

11.316.3 18.0 19.0

22.3

16%22%

28%

36%42% 45% 48%

51%

5%10%

16%19%

26%31% 33%

8%12%

15%21%

30%32%

33%37%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tanzania Mobile Broadband Subscriptions (m) and MBB Penetration (%) [Sources: TCRA, ITU]

TNZ MBB subs (000s) TNZ MBB as % Mobile Subs

Africa MBB as % Mobile Subs TNZ MBB Penetration (%)

4%4%5%

9%12%12%13%13%13%14%15%16%17%18%

20%23%23%25%26%26%26%26%27%27%

29%31%

33%34%35%

41%45%

49%52%

54%56%

59%67%

70%82%

84%

South SudanNigerCAR

Guinea-BissauLiberiaBenin

BurundiMadagascar

EswatiniEthiopiaAngola

DRCCongo B

CameroonNigeria

ChadUgandaGuineaMalawi

Sierra LeoneMozambiqueSSA Average

SenegalGambia

Burkina FasoMali

TanzaniaKenya

RwandaZimbabwe

ZambiaLesotho

TogoCôte d'Ivoire

NamibiaMauritius

BotswanaSouth Africa

GhanaGabon

MBB Penetration (% Population) at YE 2017Source: ITU, Hardiman analysis

Page


Congo-B – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary

Two MNOs – MTN and Airtel. Both are subsidiaries of major international groups

Item MTN Airtel

Licence Date 2000 1999

Number of PoS 474 495

Subscriptions at YE 2018 2.5 m 2.3 m

Market Share 51% 49%

Estimated Revenue Share >55% <45%

Technologies 2G/3G/4G 2G/3G/4G

Comment

Market leader with good coverage and high value

customer base.

MTN 4G population coverage is reported as 50% at YE

2018.

MTN reported 149 4G sites at end 1H2018 – 14% of total

sites (1,079 – of which 50% 2G and 36% 3G).

Aspires to outperform MTN in terms of coverage.

At launch of 4G service in December 2018 Airtel already claimed

83% population coverage. It reported 250 4G sites at launch.

Airtel markets the Airtel 4G network as “the largest and most

stable in Congo”. This has not been independently verified,

however.

Subscribers are invited to present their 3G SIMs at any Airtel store

and receive a 4G SIM free of charge, including 5 GB of free credit.


Page


MTN is market leader with 51% subscriber market share. MTN benefited from the exit of Warid from the market in 2014 – it immediately increased market

share from 38% at YE 2013 to 44% at YE 2014. MTN further increased market share in 2015 but Airtel has responded with progressive increases in

market share. With the exit of Azur in 2Q2018 the Congo-B market is a duopoly: 51% MTN, 49% Airtel.


• Congo-B now has tow active MNOs: MTN and Airtel.

• The number of active mobile subscriptions declined by -5% during 2018 –

mainly due to the exit of Azur.

• MTN is market leader – MTN market share was 51% at YE 2018.

Subscriptions declined slightly during 2018: -2.8% YoY. MTN reported

0.4m active mobile data users at end 1H2018 (19% of total MTN

subscriptions); equal to 49% of MTN’s 0.9m smartphone owners during the

period.

• Airtel achieved modest subscriber growth during 2018: +0.7% YoY. The

slight decline in MTN subscriptions and the exit of Azur meant that Airtel

market share increased to 49% by YE 2018. The launch of 4G services

during December 2018 means that Airtel can continue to compete strongly

with MTN in the area of mobile data services. .


Congo-B – Mobile Market – Operators

Two established international MNOs – MTN and Airtel – share 100% of all mobile subscriptions.


MTN51%

Airtel49%

Congo B Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%) YE 2018

41% 38%44%

51% 50% 50% 51%

39%32%

48%42% 43% 46% 49%

15%24%

5% 6% 8% 7% 7% 4%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Congo B Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%)


Page


Congo-B – Mobile Market – Overview

Stable market with two main international players. Mobile penetration high: 88% at YE 2018.

Congo-B’s mobile market is well penetrated: 4.9 m subscriptions at YE 2018, equivalent to 88% penetration, assuming 5.5 m population.

Subscriptions declined in 2018, following exit of Azur from market. Market is now a duopoly between MTN and Airtel. Both operators have launched 4G.

• Congo-B is a two-player mobile market : MTN and Airtel. Azur exited the

market during 2018.

• Penetration was 94% at the end of October 2017 (4.7 m mobile

subscriptions, assuming population of 5.3 m per UN Population Division

estimates). This is considerably higher than the Sub-Saharan African

average (73%).

• MTN is market leader: 2.5m subscriptions at YE 2018. MTN was the first

operator in Congo-B to offer 4G services – it launched ‘4G Turbo’ in parts

of the capital Brazzaville and in Congo’s second city Pointe Noire late in

2016.

• Airtel is the second player. Airtel acquired the subscribers of Warid in

2014. Subscriptions increased to 2.3 m by YE 2017 and remained at this

level during 2018. Airtel announced the launch of 4G services in

December 2018. It claims already to offer the broadest 4G coverage, via

250 dedicated 4G sites (83% population coverage).

• Azur exited the market during 2Q2018. It had struggled to make an

impact on the market and was in financial difficulty: subscriptions had

already declined steadily to 0.2 m at YE2017.

• Market ARPU is high relative to that of Sub-Saharan African peer

markets. However, it has followed a steady declining trend since 2014.

• MTN reported ARPU of $US 6.7 or XAF 3,789 for 3Q2018 – down from

$US 11.2 in 2Q2014. However ARPU had been below $6.0 in each

quarter since 3Q2017, so some recovery in falling trend is indicated.

• Regulator ARPCE reports voice and SMS ARPU on a quarterly basis.

Average market ARPU in 2018 was XAF 2,400 ($US 4.4): a decline of -

21% YoY. Average MOU also declined during 2018 to 63 minutes per

month (-11% YoY). No information is provided on traffic volumes or

ARPU from mobile data or VAS services (including mobile money).


1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5

1.7 1.5

2.2 1.92.1

2.3 2.30.6 1.10.2

0.3 0.4 0.30.3

0.24.3

4.7 4.64.4

4.85.1

4.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Congo B Mobile Subscriptions by Operator (m)


4.34.7 4.6 4.4

4.85.1

4.8

91% 97% 93% 87% 92% 95% 88%

57% 63% 68% 73% 72% 73%

-200%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Congo B Mobile Subscribers (m) and Penetration (%)

COG Subscriptions (m) COG Penetration % SSA av. penetration (%)

Page


Congo-B – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration (Base Case)

Mobile penetration rate of 94% achievable by 2024 – 6.0 m mobile market subscriptions


• Population: Our year end population estimates (5.3m

at YE2017) are based on the mid-year values of the UN

Population Division. This is 21% higher than IMF

estimate and 11% higher than the estimate of Congo’s

National Statistics Centre (CNSEE). Following the UN,

we project population to increase to 6.4m by YE2024

(+2.6% CAGR).

• Mobile subscriber penetration at YE2017, using UN

population values, was 95% (5.1m subscriptions),

falling to 88% at YE2018 (4.8 m subscriptions).

Projected to increase to 6.0 m by 2024 (+3.7% CAGR)


a) Population

• The UN Population Division appears to view the 2007

census results as incomplete – some areas were

undercounted. Congo’s population is heavily

concentrated around Brazzaville and Pointe Noire.

Accurate counting in rural areas is a challenge.


• Congo B’s mobile penetration at YE2017 (88%) shows

reasonable correlation with Nominal GDP per capita

when benchmarked against peer markets.

• IMF forecasts Congo-B Nominal GDP per capita to

decline from 2020, and to achieve only +0.4% CAGR

growth from $US 2,005 in 2016 to $US 2,043 in 2023 .

• Mobile penetration in the 90-100% range has already

been achieved in some sub-Saharan markets with

similar (or lower) levels of GDP per capita, notably:

• Senegal: 2017 Penetration 98%, 2017 GDP per

Capita $US 1,331

Source: Regulator, IMF WEO, ITU, Hardiman Model

5.14.8

5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0

95%88% 89% 91% 92% 93% 93% 94%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Congo B Mobile Market Subscriber and Penetration Forecast (m, %)

Mobile Subscribers m Penetration (%)

R² = 0.0774

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

Mobile

Penetr

atio

n Y

E 2

017 (I

TU

, U

N)

Nominal GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [Source: IMF WEO October 2018]

Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets 2017 (%)vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices)

Congo_B 2017

Congo_B 2020

Congo_B 2023


2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Page


Congo-B – Mobile Market – 3G and Mobile Broadband

MBB adoption within coverage area is high – however, coverage still low: 17% 3G, 5% 4G.

Source: GSMA, Hardiman

MBB penetration in Congo-B is increasing steadily. ITU reported 18% at YE 2018. GSMA reported that 44% of mobile subscriptions were MBB-enabled

at YE 2018 – a similar level to Tanzania. The main restraint on MBB adoption is low population coverage of both 3G and especially 4G. The number of

active data users reported by MTN is around half of the total number of smartphone users. Users cannot avail of full data functionality of handsets.

107% 104% 103% 101%90% 85%

71% 65% 65%53% 52%

41% 40% 40% 39% 37% 35%27% 24% 21% 19% 18% 17%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%

Mobile Broadband Adoption as % of MBB Coverage at YE 2017 Sources: ITU January 2019 edition, MTN, Hardiman analysis

Based on MBB penetration of 17% and 3G coverage

of 17%. 4G coverage at YE 2017 was 5%.

Algeria

Angola

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Congo B

DRC

Gambia

Ghana

Kenya

Niger

NigeriaRwanda

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda Zambia

R² = 0.40730%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

MBB (3G/4G) share of Mobile Connections

vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018(IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social)

Algeria

AngolaBurkina Faso

Cameroon

Congo B

DRC

Egypt

Gambia

Ghana

Kenya

Niger

NigeriaRwanda

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda Zambia

R² = 0.5593

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

MBB (3G/4G) Penetration (% Pop) vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018

(IMF, ITU, UN, We Are Social)

Page


Ghana – Mobile Market – Operator KPI Summary

Following Airtel-Tigo merger Ghana mobile market has three major players

Item MTN Vodafone Airtel-Tigo Glo Mobile

Licence Date 1996 2000 1994 (Tigo), 1997 (Airtel) 2008

Number of PoS YE2018 3,168 1,730 1,617 1,100

Subscriptions (m)

YE2018E17.7m 9.8m 10.3m 0.7m

Market Share (%)

YE2018E46% 25% 27% 2%

Subscribers / PoS 5,587 5,665 6,364 672

ARPU 2018 $US 3.7 NA NA NA

Revenue Share >50% >22% >27% >1%

Comment

Market leader with high

value customer base.

IPO for 35% of MTN Ghana

shares was completed

during September 2018 -

$US 237 m raised.

Attempting to match MTN in

terms of coverage.

Immediate focus is on

launch and roll-out of 4G

services, planned for

1H2019.

In 2010 Vodafone

concluded a ten-year

Operation and Maintenance

(O&M) agreement with

Eaton Towers for up to 750

towers.

It is not yet clear if or under

what terms this agreement

will be renewed upon expiry

in 2020.

Fewer subs / PoS than

MTN, but still suffering from

congestion.

50:50 JV between Bharti

Airtel and Tigo, branded

Airtel-Tigo.

Network merger still in

progress. To be completed

by end 2019.

Launched in 2012 with

aggressive marketing and

pricing strategy.

Some initial success

achieved (1.6m subscribers

during first year).

However, subscriber base

reduced by nearly 50%

during 2016 and has

remained flat at this low

level.


Page


MTN is clear market leader: it has used first-mover advantage in 4G to maintain market share at 46%. MTN continues to reinforce leadership position by

deploying a 4-play strategy. Vodafone had benefited from former incumbent status but is now the third largest MNO: launch of 4G planned for 2Q2019.

A strong challenge is being provided by the new Airtel-Tigo entity, after merger of Bharti Airtel and Millicom Tigo’s Ghanaian operations at YE 2017.


• During the last five years the relative market shares of the four main

players have remained relatively stable. However, Airtel and Tigo merged

operations at the end of 2017, meaning that Ghana is effectively a three-

player market.

• MTN is market leader with a 46% share of subscriptions at YE2018E.

Subscriber growth has resumed following the removal of inactive

subscribers in 1Q2017. MTN’s LTE service has been live in all 10 regional

capitals since June 2016. MTN is also developing a 4-play offering: fibre

broadband has already been launched in selected commercial and

residential districts; IPTV and fixed telephony to be added.

• MTN Group is in the process of divesting 35% of MTN Ghana to Ghanaian

investors. This was a condition of the award to MTN of 2x10MHz of

800Mhz spectrum for LTE services.

• Airtel and Tigo merged late in 2017. The NCA reported that Airtel-Tigo had

10.3m subscriptions at YE2018: 28% market share, +0.5 m net adds YoY

• Glo Mobile market share declined sharply in 2016 from 1.4m subscribers

at YE2015 (3.9% market share) to 0.7m at YE2016 (1.8%). Glo’s weak

market position has persisted. At YE2018 NCA reports that Glo had only

0.7m subscriptions (2% market share).

• 6th MNO Expresso ceased operations during 2018. At YE2017 it already

had only 23k subscribers (0.06% market share).


Ghana – Mobile Market – Operators

Three operators – MTN, Vodafone and the Airtel-Tigo JV – share 98% of all active SIMs.


46%

25%

27%

2%

Ghana Mobile Subscriber Market Shares at YE2018E (%)

MTN Vodafone AirtelTigo Glo Mobile

46% 46% 46% 46% 50% 44% 46%

21% 22% 23% 22%22%

26% 25%

14% 14% 14% 14%14%

28% 27%

6% 5% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2%

1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E

Ghana Mobile Subscriber Market Shares (%)[MNOs, NCA, Hardiman Analysis]

MTN Vodafone Tigo Airtel AirtelTigo Glo Mobile Expresso

Page


Ghana – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband

Mobile broadband adoption growing strongly, but scope exists for further improvement in coverage

MNOs continue to grow data usage among subscriber base – NCA reports that 59% of mobile market subscriptions were active data users at end

3Q2018. MBB penetration was 82% at YE 2017 – one of the highest penetration levels in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Voice-only subscription is slowing: voice and traditional messaging

services are no longer the key driver of demand. Growth in Ghana’s mobile

sector is now being driven mainly by adoption of mobile data services.

• The Ghanaian regulator, NCA, reports that the number of mobile data

subscriptions increased from 8.3m at YE2012 to 23.5m at end 3Q2018

(+23% 5-year CAGR). Most of the growth is in 4G (MTN).

• Thus growth in the number of mobile data users is higher than the growth

of mobile phone subscriptions (+11% CAGR).

• The share of mobile subscribers which are data users has increased from

33% in 2012 to 59% at end 3Q2018. We expect this share to increase

further as old handsets are replaced by smartphones, as MNOs improve

mobile broadband coverage, and when Vodafone and Airtel-Tigo obtain 4G

licences and roll-out own 4G services.

25.628.0

30.4

35.038.3 37.4

40.0

8.310.3

15.818.0

19.622.1 23.5

33%

37%

52% 52% 51%

59% 59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

YE 2012 YE 2013 YE 2014 YE 2015 YE 2016 3Q2017 3Q2018

Ghana Active Data Users (m), and as Share of Total Market Mobile Subscriptions (%)

Total mobile subs (m) Mobile data users (m) Data users as % total

4%4%5%

9%12%12%13%13%13%14%15%16%17%18%

20%23%23%25%26%26%26%26%27%27%

29%31%

33%34%35%

41%45%

49%52%

54%56%

59%67%

70%82%

84%

South SudanNigerCAR


BurundiMadagascar


DRCCongo B

CameroonNigeria



SenegalGambia

Burkina FasoMali

TanzaniaKenya

RwandaZimbabwe

ZambiaLesotho

TogoCôte d'Ivoire

NamibiaMauritius


GhanaGabon


Sources: NCA, ITU, Hardiman Analysis

Page


Ghana – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration

Mobile penetration rate to stabilise at 131% by 2024 – 44 m mobile market subscriptions


• Population at YE2017 was 29.1m. Projected to

increase to 33.0m by YE2023 and 33.m by YE2024

(+2.1% CAGR). [Source: UN Population Division].


(35.2m subscriptions). Decline during 2017 was du

mainly to the downward restatement of active

subscriber numbers by MTN. Penetration is projected

to recover, however, to above 130% by 2019 and to

stabilise around 131% by 2024 (44.0m subscriptions:

+3.2% CAGR 2017-24)


a) Population

• All sources are in broad agreement about Tanzania’s

current population and growth rate.

• We assume continued population growth at +2.1%

CAGR to 2023 in line with the forecasts of the UN

Population Division.


• Ghana mobile penetration at YE2017 (121%) was

higher than that of other Sub-Saharan African markets

with similar levels of Nominal GDP per capita.

• The IMF forecasts Ghana Nominal GDP per capita to

grow strongly from $US 1,663 in 2017 to $US 2,275 in

2023 (+5.4% CAGR)

• Mobile penetration above 120% has already been

achieved in some sub-Saharan markets with similar (or


• Cote d’Ivoire: 2017 Penetration 129%, 2017 GDP

per capita $US 1,621.

• Gambia: 2017 Penetration 137%, 2017 GDP per

capita $US 705.

R² = 0.072

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Mobile

Penetr

atio

n (

World

Bank)

Nominal GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF WEO October 2018]

Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets 2017 (%)vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices)

Ghana 2017

Ghana 2020

Ghana 2023


38.335.2

38.5 40.1 41.4 42.4 43.043.5 44.0

134%

121%129% 132% 133% 134% 133% 132% 131%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2016 2017 2018E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Ghana Mobile Market Subscription and Penetration Forecast (m, %)[NCA, UN, Hardiman Analysis]

Mobile Subscriptions (m) Mobile Penetration (%)

2016 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Source: NCA, ITU, UN, MNO, Hardiman Model

Page


Ghana – Mobile Market – 3G and Mobile Broadband

MBB adoption in Ghana is among highest in Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: GSMA ITU,UN, We Are Social Hardiman

MBB take-up in Ghana is high relative to other Sub-Saharan African markets. MBB-enabled subscriptions (3G/4G) represented 62% of total Ghana

mobile market subscriptions at YE 2018 – equivalent to 78% population penetration. This correlates with the 82% MBB penetration and 80% MBB

coverage values reported by the ITU for YE 2017. MNOs are investing heavily in mobile broadband. 4G population coverage already exceeds 35%.

Algeria

Angola

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Congo B

DRCGambia

Ghana

Kenya

Niger

NigeriaRwanda

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda Zambia

R² = 0.4073

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

MBB-enabled (3G/4G) share of Mobile Connections


Algeria

Angola

Burkina FasoCameroon

Congo B

DRC

Egypt

Gambia

Ghana

Kenya

Niger

NigeriaRwanda

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda Zambia

R² = 0.5593

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

MBB-enabled (3G/4G) Penetration (% Pop) vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018


107% 104% 103% 101%90% 85%

71% 65% 65%53% 52%

41% 40% 40% 39% 37% 35%27% 24% 21% 19% 18% 17%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%


Based on MBB penetration of 82% and 3G coverage

of 80%. 4G coverage at YE 2017 was 35%.

Page


Vodacom is clear market leader, with a subscriber market share of 44% at YE 2018. MTN is a strong 2nd throughout the country. The 2 smaller operators,

Cell C and Telkom SA make up only 25% of the market but have been increasing their market share consistently over past 4 years. 3G technologies

cover 98% of the population of South Africa.


• During the last five years the relative market shares of the four main

players have remained relatively stable:

• Vodacom is market leader with a 43% share of subscriptions at YE 2018.

Vodacom is perceived to have the highest quality offering, and is first

choice for business users. Vodacom offers the broadest and deepest

coverage of all South Africa’s MNOs across all technology types: GSM 2G,

3G UMTS, 4G LTE.

• MTN is a strong 2nd position throughout the country, but has recently lost

market share to smaller operators Cell C and Telkom SA. MTN’s network

coverage is similar to that of Vodacom

• Cell C Since 2015 Cell C has achieved consistent subscriber and market

share growth. We estimate that subscriber market share at YE 2018 was

17%. This does not include Cell C’s significant MVNO base – industry

sources report over 2m active MVNO SIMs.

• Telkom SA is smallest significant operator. Telkom has reported 9.7m

mobile subscribers at the end of March 2019 and had an estimated market

share of 8% at year end 2018.


South Africa – Mobile Market – Operators

Four established MNOs – Vodacom, MTN, Cell C, Telkom SA –share 97% of all active SIMs.


Vodacom43%

MTN30%

Cell C17%

Telkom SA8%

Other2%

South Africa Subscriber Market Share YE 2018

43% 42% 38% 41% 41% 44% 43%

37% 35%34%

37% 35% 31% 30%

15% 18% 23%16% 17% 17% 17%

3% 4% 5% 8%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

South Africa Mobile Subscriber Market Share (%)

Page


South Africa – Tower Market SummaryBoth Helios Towers and American Tower are active in South Africa

• South Africa has the largest tower market in Sub Saharan Africa with

an estimated 28,977 towers.

• The majority of the towers, 18,200 of the 28,581 are owned by the

MNOs.

• The independent towerco space is vibrant. There are a number of

small independent towercos, including Atlas Towers and Eagle

Towers, building and operating towers for the MNOs and developing

small cell solutions.

• Both American Tower and Helios Towers are active in South Africa.

• American Tower has 2,608 active towers in South Africa.

• In January 2019 Helios Towers acquired a controlling interest in SA

Towers

• Eaton Towers sold its 300 towers in South Africa to American

Tower in 2016

• American Tower entered the market by acquiring Cell C’s portfolio of

towers

• Gyro Group was created when Corporate Real Estate Services,

Telkom’s internal property division, was separated from the Telkom

Group.

• Independent towercos own and operate an estimated 15% of towers

Source: TowerXchange, Hardiman Analysis

, 10500, 36%

24%

23%

, 2608, 9%

Cell C2%

Sentech1%

Atlas Towers3%

SA Towers1%

Other Independent

TowerCo1%

Towers By Owner

Page


94.8102.6 104.7 106.7 108.3 109.6 110.3 111.0

166%178% 179% 181% 182% 182% 181% 180%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Mobile Subscribers (m) and Penetration (%)(Hardiman Analysis)

Mobile Subscriptions (m) Mobile Penetration (%)

South Africa – Mobile Market – Subscriptions and Penetration Forecast

Mobile penetration rate to remain exceptionally high, reflecting multi-SIM use: 180% in 2024


• Population at YE2017 was 57.1m Projected to

increase to 61.5m by YE2024 (+1.1% CAGR). [Source:

UN Population Division].


(103 m subscriptions). Telkom’s subscriber growth has

been maintained. It added a further 1.1m subscribers in

Q1 2019. This run rate indicates that the year end

forecast of 179% mobile penetration may be achieved.

• We expect mobile subscriptions to increase to 111m

subscriptions by 2024 (+1.3% CAGR) – equivalent to

180% population penetration


a) Population

• We assume population growth in line with UN

forecasts: +1.1% CAGR during the period 2017 to

2024.


• South Africa mobile penetration at YE2018 (178%) was

already exceptionally high in relation to nominal GDP

per capita. There are no true peer markets on the South

African continent. Thus benchmarking is difficult.

• IMF forecasts that South Africa Nominal GDP per

capita will grow from $US 6,180 in 2017 to $US 7,346 in

2023 (+2.9% CAGR).

• We project that this increase in GDP per capita will be

sufficient to support additional market SIM net adds of

around 1m per annum from 2019 to 2024. Mobile

penetration is likely to stabilise around 180%. This

assumes that multi-SIM ownership and use will

continue to be a feature of the market.

2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Source: Regulator, ITU, UN, World Bank, Hardiman Model

R² = 0.1749

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

Mobile

Penetr

atio

n (

World

Bank)

GDP Per Capita ($US, current prices) [IMF]

Mobile Penetration in Sub-Saharan Markets at YE 2017 (%)vs. Nominal GDP per Capita ($US, current prices)

South Africa 2017

South Africa 2020

South Africa 2023

Page


South Africa – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband

Mobile broadband adoption growing strongly.

40m mobile broadband users at YE 2017 – 42% of total mobile subscriptions, equivalent to 70% MBB penetration of population. This may be a

reasonable proxy for unique mobile subscriptions. MBB coverage in South Africa is high, at 99% of population – versus SSA average of around 60%.

• Mobile broadband users grew from 29m at YE 2016 to 40m at YE 2017:

+40% YoY. Mobile accounts for over 95% of all broadband connections in

South Africa.

• Continued roll out of 3G networks and launch of 4G services will drive

further take-up of mobile broadband services.

• The ITU reports that MBB coverage in RSA is nearly complete: 3G –

99%; 4G – 78% at YE 2017

• However, affordability and access to smartphones remain key issues:

• The increased availability of cheap smartphones in South Africa will act

as a stimulus to mobile broadband uptake, notably among youth -

although South Africa’s exceptionally high rate of youth unemployment

is to be noted.

22.4

28.5

39.9

27%

32%

42%40%

51%

70%

25%

31%36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

2015 2016 2017

South Africa Mobile Broadband Subscriptions (m) and MBB Penetration (%) [Sources: ITU, Hardiman analysis]

MBB connections (m) RSA MBB as % mobile subs

RSA MBB penetration SSA MBB as % mobile subs

4%4%5%

9%12%12%13%13%13%14%15%16%17%18%

20%23%23%25%26%26%26%26%27%27%

29%31%

33%34%35%

41%45%

49%52%

54%56%

59%67%

70%82%

84%

South SudanNigerCAR


BurundiMadagascar


DRCCongo B

CameroonNigeria



SenegalGambia

Burkina FasoMali

TanzaniaKenya

RwandaZimbabwe

ZambiaLesotho

TogoCôte d'Ivoire

NamibiaMauritius


GhanaGabon


Source: ITU, NRAs, Hardiman Analysis

Page


South Africa – Mobile Market – Mobile Broadband (3G and 4G)

Mobile Broadband demand well established – nearly two thirds of subscriptions actively use MBB

Sources: ITU, We Are Social, Hardiman Analysis

MBB take-up rate in South Africa is among the strongest in the region. MBB-enabled subscriptions (3G/4G) represented 62% of total mobile market

subscriptions at YE 2018 – equivalent to 100% population penetration. Focus now is on further extension of 4G coverage. 78% of population was

already covered by 4G at YE2017 – one of the highest rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.

107% 104% 103% 101%90% 85%

71% 65% 65%53% 52%

41% 40% 40% 39% 37% 35%27% 24% 21% 19% 18% 17%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

110%


Based on MBB penetration of 70% and 3G coverage of

99%. 4G population coverage at YE 2017 was 78%.

Algeria

AngolaBurkina Faso

Cameroon

Congo B

DRC

Egypt

Gambia

Ghana

Kenya

Niger

NigeriaRwanda

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda Zambia

R² = 0.5593

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

MBB (3G/4G) Penetration (% Pop) vs Nominal GDP per Capita ($US) 2018


Algeria

Angola

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Congo B

DRCGambia

Ghana

Kenya

Niger

NigeriaRwanda

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Uganda Zambia

R² = 0.40730%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400

MBB (3G/4G) share of Mobile Connections


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Glossary

Glossary

3G 3rd Generation Mobile (UMTS) MFS Mobile Financial Services

4G 4th Generation Mobile (LTE) MNO Mobile Network Operator

4-Play Bundle of 4 products MVNO Mobile Virtual Network Operator

ARPTCAutorité de Régulation de la Poste et des

Télécommunications du CongoNCA National Communications Authority

ARPU Average Revenue Per User NRA National Regulatory Authority

B2S Build To Suit O&M Operations and Maintenance

DSE Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange PoS Point of Service

GB Giga Byte SIM Subscriber Identity Module

HT Helios Towers SSA Sub Saharan Africa

IPTV Internet Protocol Television TCRA Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority

LTE Long Term Evolution (4G) UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunications Service

Mbit/s Mega bits per second

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• A single tower can host multiple Operator tenants. Each Operator tenant can be considered an Operator PoS – a tenancy on a HT site

• A single Operator tenant can have equipment for multiple networks 2G, 3G and 4Gdeployed under a single rental agreement. Each network served can be

considered to be a Network PoS. HT is technology agnostic, it sells tower capacity to the Operator. It does not charge based on the technology deployed.

• In the HT markets the Operators generally colocate 3G and 4G equipment on 2G sites.

• When an Operator installs 3G equipment on a 2G site this is an additional Network PoS. This may generate additional income for the TowerCo as additional

tower capacity will be required. There is no increase in Operator PoS (tenancy).

• In this report the term PoS refers to Operator PoS

PoS Definition

MNO 1

MNO 2

MNO 3Tower

2G

3G

4G

TRX 1

TRX N

Operator PoS Network PoS TRX1 PoS

Microwave

Antennae for

Backhaul

2G/3G Sector Antennae

with associated RRUs

2G/3G Sector Antennae

with associated RRUs

Brackets for expansion

(1) TRX is a physical transmitter / receiver unit

HT Market Assessment• HT is a trusted partner of the MNOs. Airtel (Congo-B, DRC) Tigo (Ghana, Tanzania, DRC) and Vodacom (Tanzania) have sold their tower portfolios to HT. • Additionally

Documents