How How to prioritize to prioritize climate change climate change adaptation measures? adaptation measures? Yeora Chae
HowHow to prioritize to prioritize climate change climate change
adaptation measures?adaptation measures?
Yeora Chae
ContentsContentsIntroductionIntroduction
Climate change adaptation Climate change adaptation
Prioritizing adaptation optionsPrioritizing adaptation options
Identifying evaluation criteriaIdentifying evaluation criteria
Further stepsFurther steps
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• Even if stringent global GHG emissions reductions prove to be successful, further climate change seems to be inevitable (IPCC 2007)
• Climate change impacts will be unevenly distributed and put additional pressure on social-ecological functions and structures.
11. Research needs. Research needs
. Introduction. Introduction
structures.
• Policy makers at national and local levels have begun to initiated dedicated adaptation practices to counter adverse impacts.
• Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly
• To maximize the benefit of adaptation, prioritizing adaptation options are essential
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2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks2. Research tasks
• To investigate adaptation measures and plan
• To categorizes adaptation options
• To analyze methodologies for evaluating
adaptation optionsadaptation options
• Multi-criteria analysis, cost-benefit analysis, etc.
• To develop a methodology for prioritizing
adaptation options
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1.1. Objective of adaptation: Objective of adaptation: What is successful adaptation?What is successful adaptation?
. Climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation
• To maintain climate-related risks at present level• To reduce risks from present level if current risks are
unacceptableunacceptable• To minimize exposure of most vulnerable population
• cost effectiveness• equity: distribution of benefit• sustainability
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22. . Classification adaptation strategiesClassification adaptation strategies
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33. The percentage of adaptation strategies. The percentage of adaptation strategies
Benjamin L. Preston(2011)
The ‘percentage of plans incorporating the specified strategy’ representsthe proportion of the 57 adaptation plans that had at least one adaptationoption consistent with a given adaptation strategy (UKCIP 2008).
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4. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation 4. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (group)strategies (group)
80
100
120
140
Exploiting new opportunities
Avoiding or reducing the risks
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0
20
40
60
Avoiding or reducing the risks
Sharing or spreading the risks
Gathering and sharing information
Creating a supportive institutional frameworkCreating supportive social structures
Bearing the risks
Public Relations, Education, and International Cooperation
55. The Current Situation of Korea adaptation . The Current Situation of Korea adaptation strategies (type)strategies (type)
Exploiting new opportunities
Avoiding or reducing the risks
Sharing or spreading the risks
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Bearing the risks
Creating a supportive institutional framework
Creating supportive social structures
Gathering and sharing information
1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation1. The process of evaluation in adaptation
1) Identification of core stages in adaptation planning from the decision science and development evaluation literature
2) Identification of critical planning processes associated
. . Prioritizing adaptation optionsPrioritizing adaptation options
2) Identification of critical planning processes associated with each planning stage that can be used as evaluation criteria
3) Selection of adaptation plans for evaluation
4) Scoring of plans against evaluation criteria
5) Categorization of adaptation options embodied within plans
Benjamin L. Preston et al.(2011)10
1) Organizing stakeholder group
2) Listening stakeholder s opinion in pre-assessment
3) Building adaptation assessment framework through legal,
social, political process
22222222. The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation . The process of evaluation in adaptation (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, (Han, 20072007200720072007200720072007))))))))
social, political process
4) Vulnerability assessment
5) Identification of priority option through stakeholder s
agreement
6) Public hearing
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1) Benefits of adaptation occurs far future and uncertain.
2) Hard to measure benefits of adaptation
3) Benefits of adaptation may be realized by combination of
options: hard to measure each option s individual benefit
33333333. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation. The feature of evaluation in adaptation
options: hard to measure each option s individual benefit
4) Climate change impacts would differ depending on
physical, economic, social condition: regional, sectoral
analysis required.
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• Climate change impacts &
risk
• physical, economic, social
condition
• feature of adaptation options
Cos-benefit analysis
44444444. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation. The criterion of evaluation in adaptation
• Cos-benefit analysis
• main-streaming
• Environmental aspect
• legal aspect
• Policy aspect
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Sergio Margulis et al.(2008)
55555555. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment. Relevant criteria for adaptation assessment
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66666666. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods. Summary of Assessment methods
Lead Authors(1998) Adaptation to Climate Change: Theory and Assessment” 21p.
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1) Ensuring reduction in societal and ecological vulnerability:
One of the key aims of climate adaptation is to reduce the vulnerability of
human and natural systems to the effects of climate variability and
change.(or, in other words, the avoidance of ‘dangerous’ climate change)
2) Learning and adaptive management:
77777777. Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation . Role of adaptation evaluation
2) Learning and adaptive management:
Climate adaptation is fundamentally a process of social learning.
3) Need for accountability in an evidence-based policy environment:
From a governance perspective, investments in adaptation and the
outcomes they achieve must be transparent.
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8. 8. Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress Progress on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation on Adaptation
Fréedéeric Gagnon-Lebrun and Shardul Agrawala(2006), "Progress on Adaptation to Climate Change in Deveoped Countries", OECD
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1010101010101010. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi. Multi--------criteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Optioncriteria Analysis for Adaptation Option
ICAS(2011). “International Symposium Promoting Synergies Among Adaptation Networks in the Asia-Pacific Region”. 19
1111111111111111. . . . . . . . Selection criteria for adaptation options (Klein et al. 1997)
• # of countries, or population affected by climate change impacts
• probability of climate change risk
• Irreversible higher cost impacts
• Tendency on mal-adaptation• Tendency on mal-adaptation
• Long-term projects like infrastructure
- Urgency- No-regret characteristics of options- Co-benefits of other sectors and domains- Mitigation effect
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� Previous studies
� Recommendation from other institutions, organizations
. . Identifying evaluation criteriaIdentifying evaluation criteria
11. . Selection of evaluation criteriaSelection of evaluation criteria
organizations
� Expert survey
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� Experts: adaptation scientist ( ), Policy analysits ( ), policy makers ( )
� Evaluation criteria, concepts, assessment concepts, assessment methodology, etc.
� Selection among criteria
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22. Evaluation criteria. Evaluation criteria
Evaluation criteriaconcept
Climate기change기risk
Climate change risks Climate change risks (Probability)
Climate change impacts # of people, area affected by clima te change
Timing Timing of climate change impacts occur
Intensity of climate change # of mortality, morbidity, d amage cost ($)
Equity Consideration of vulnerable group
Policy
Equity Consideration of vulnerable group
Democracy Consensus on stakeholders’ opinion
main-streaming
- Identification of ways in adaptation can be
institutionalized or embedded into existing or new policie s
and plans
Effectiveness
Economic efficiency Cost, effectiveness, benefits
Co-benefits Exploitation of synergies
Propagating effect Communication and outreach
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22. Evaluation criteria. Evaluation criteria
Evaluation criteriaAnalysis methodology
Climate기change기risk
Climate change risksQuantitative analysis:
Vulnerability analysis
Climate change impact assessment
Climate change impacts
Timing
Intensity of climate change
Equity
Policy
Equity
Qualitative analysis:
Multi criteria analysis, AHP, BAP
Democracy
main-streaming
Effectiveness
Economic efficiency Quantitative analysis: cost benefit analysis
Co-benefits Quantitative analysis
Propagating effect Qualitative analysis
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66666666. . . . . . . . Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change Prioritization of climate change adaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measuresadaptation measures
Assessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measuresAssessment of adaptation measures
PolicyClimate changerisks
Effectiveness
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Quantitative assessment
Qualitative assessment
Policyrisks
• Timing• Risks (probability)• Intensity
• Economic efficiency• Co-benefits (win-win measures)• Propagation effects
• Equity• Democracy• main streaming
77777777. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps. Assessment steps
11stst StepStep(Screening)
22ndnd StepStep
· No regret :measures with no cost· Existing measures· Non-reversible impacts
Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment
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22ndnd StepStep
33rdrd StepStep
assessment
Multi-criteria analysis
Effectiveness Policy
88888888. Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and . Climate change impacts and vulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessmentvulnerability assessment
11 22
Inten
PriorityPriorityNear futureNear future
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ensity
Risk
(probability)
2011
Timing
PriorityNear futureNear future
� Expert survey on evaluation criteria, relative weight, assessment scale
� Pre-test on adaptation plan
� To build a prioritizing framework for sectoral adaptation options
. . Further stepsFurther steps
adaptation options
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THANK YOU!THANK YOU!
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