Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10

Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green

Technologies, Conservation International

Sigma Xi talk, Howard University, November 29, 2010

Biocomplexity DecisionmakingInnovative approaches to the inter-connected challenges of

Climate destabilization, Mass povertyand Species extinction

―Fundamental scales of physics, expressed in natural units, are remarkably different…widely spaced over 60

orders of magnitude. Without this kind of hierarchy, complex structures (e.g.living beings) could not exist. Nobody knows why the scales are so apart‖

H0 = expansion rate of the universe

ρ vac = energy density of empty space

Ry = Rydberg constant of atomic physics

Λ QCD = scale governing the strong nuclear force

mW = mass of the W boson carrying the weak nuclear force

G-1/2 = Planck scale characterizing gravity, constructed from Newton’s constant G

Professor Sean Carroll

Caltech

BIOCOMPLEXITY - the complex behavioral, biological, social, chemical, and physical interactions of living organisms with their environment.

www.nsf.org

New England Complex Systems Institute, Visualizing Complex Systems Science, www.necsi.org

Neural networks and synapses Fitness landscapes

Milankovitch cycles

Fractal watersheds

nested networks

swarms migrations

Collective intelligence

While non-linear

complex systems

pervade existence,

humans have a strong

propensity to think and

act as if life is linear,

uncertainty is

controllable, the future

free of surprises, and

planning can be

compartmentalized into

silos.

With nearly predictable

fat-tail futures.

Unprecedented

Challenges of

Historical & Global

Magnitude

More absolute poor than any time

in human history

[alongside more wealth than ever]M

ass p

overty

Resource

Wars &

Conflicts

Sp

ecie

s

extin

ctio

n

Species extinction by humans

1000x natural background rate

Clim

ate

wie

rdin

gWhere we will be by 2100 900ppm

Par

ts p

er

Mill

ion

CO

2

Past planetary mass extinctions

triggered by high CO2 >550ppm

Oce

an

s

Acid

ifyin

g

55 million years since oceans as acidic –

business-as-usual emissions growth

threaten collapse of marine life food web

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

human

extinction?

????2100

12 to 16 billion

70,000 years ago humans

down to 2000

Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences

A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousands

of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction

MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL

Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."

… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

Martin Weitzman

Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The

Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/

Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion

Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 TrajectoryGtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm

Based on 6 Celsius average

global temperature rise due to

greater climate sensitivity

Green Economics negative CO2 by 2050

to achieve <350 ppm

Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

>$/GDP/cap

21052005

2 TO 3% Annual Average

Gross World Product

(GWP) 21st Century (~10

to 20x today’s)

2105

$500 trillion GWP

~$50,000 per cap

# in poverty?

$50 trillion GWP

~$7,500 per cap

2+ billion in

poverty?

$1,000 trillion GWP

~$100,000 per cap

# in poverty?

Averting catastrophes by

Greening the

Global Economy

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering

GENETICS

INFORMATICS NANOTECH

AUTOROBOTICS

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too

differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3

knowledge relationships of knowledge

Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions

Tucuruí dam, Brazil

St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience

50: 766–75,

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International

Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

DAMReservoir

Area

(km2)

Generating

Capacity

(MW)

km2/

MW

Emissions:

Hydro

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissions:

CC Gas

(MtCO2-

eq/yr)

Emissions

Ratio

Hydro/Gas

Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4

Curuá-

Una72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5

Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58

Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success

Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become

climate positive and revenue positive

Radical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green PowerEcosystem

Protection

Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS

1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCYPursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous

improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary

benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water &

resources)

2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMSAdd conservation carbon offset options to portfolio

that deliver triple benefits (climate protection,

biodiversity preservation, and promotion of

community sustainable development)

3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELSSelect only verifiable ‘green power/fuels’ that are

climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow

poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts

Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the

incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for

developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or

about half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type

• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture)

• 6 Gt energy efficiency

• 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO214 million hectares burned each

year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons

CO2 per year. More emissions

than world transport system of

cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships

US GHG levels

Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO25 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year

in mitigation services available in

poor nations, increasing their

revenues by billions of dollars

annually ; and saving better-off

nations billions of dollars.

US GHG levels

Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive

High Quality Multi-Benefit

$4 million to protect the Tayna and

Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in

eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation

area in Peru.

Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of

CO2 from being released into the

atmosphere.

Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity

Carbon Standards.

Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

CCS REDD

Geological storage (CCS) vs Ecological storage (REDD)

Carbon Mitigation Cost

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2

mitigation cost annually (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)

~$100 billion~3 ¢ per kWh

~$18 billion~0.5 ¢ per kWh

$ per ton CO2

Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)

Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)

Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

0

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions

Tropical Deforestation 2007 13 million hectares burned7 billion tons CO2 emissions

$7.50 per ton CO21/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD tradePoverty reduction

Prevent Species loss

A win-win-win outcome

A win-win-win outcome

1824 Liters per year (10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year)

4.8 tons CO2 emissions per year

~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at $10 per tCO2

Adds 7 cents per gallon

=

In the wake of 14

million hectares of

tropical forests

burned down each

year, some 16

million species

populations go

extinct.

Species

comprising the

natural laboratory

of biocomplexity

with future values

yet to be assessed

or discovered.

One-quarter all medical drugs

used in developed world from

plants.

Cortisone and first oral

contraceptives derived from

Central American yam species

Pacific yew in western US

yielded anti-cancer drug taxol

Vincristine from the Rosy

Periwinkle in Madagascar

Drug to prevent blood clotting

from snake venom

Active ingredient aspirin

synthesized from willow trees.

Bioprospecting biological wealth

Using bioinformatic tools

Biomolecules prospected from

different bioresources for

pesticidal, therapeutic and other

agriculturally important

compounds

Bioprospecting biological wealth

Using biotechnological tools

Biomolecules for Industrial and

Medicinal Use

Novel Genes/Promoters To

Address Biotic and Abiotic

Stress

Genes for Transcription Factors

Metabolic Engineering Pathways

Nutritional Enhancement

Bioavailability of Elements

Microbial Biodiversity

Green

Engineering

1. Inherent rather than circumstantial.

2. Prevention rather than treatment.

3. Design for separation.

4. Maximize mass, energy, space, and time efficiency.

5. ―Out‐pulled‖ rather than ―input‐pushed‖.

6. View complexity as an investment.

7. Durability rather than immortality.

8. Need rather than excess.

9. Minimize material diversity.

10. Integrate local material and energy flows.

11. Design for commercial ―afterlife‖.

12. Renewable and readily available.

Principles of Green Engineering

Source: Anastas and Zimmerman, Design Through the 12 Principles of Green Engineering,

Environmental Science and Technology, March 1, 2003

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption

becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

CLOSING THE LOOP– Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing

Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry

Source: Green Chemistry & Catalysis for the Production of Flavours & Fragrances, Roger A. Sheldon,

Biocatalysis & Organic Chemistry, Delft University of Technology, Nice, 17 June 2005; and, R.A. Sheldon, Green

Chemistry & Catalysis for Sustainable Organic Synthesis, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, May 12, 2004

mass balance: E= [raw materials-product]/product

Source: The Green Screen for Safer Chemicals Version 1.0, Clean Production Action, Jan. 2001

The Green Screen is a benchmarking tool that

assesses a chemical’s hazard with the intent

to guide decision making toward the use of

the least hazardous options via a process of

informed substitution.

Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses on

design of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste or

pollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.

Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)

Reducing a Product’s Environmental Footprint

Spider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmental

effects or ―footprint‖ are reduced over time through incremental improvements in

sustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years

2009, 2025 and 2050.

Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008

Ultra-low Carbon

multi-beneficial

Energy Service

Options

To have a reasonable

confidence that

warming would stay

below 2 C, global

emissions must peak

by 2015, reach a

sustained rate of

decline of 10%/year

for decades, falling to

zero by 2050.

More cautious climate

scientists argue we

will need to go

negative through

2100 to reach 350ppm

– essential given

greater climate

sensitivity than

previous thought.

A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future A Synthesis of the Science of Climate Change, Environment and Development, SEI, TERI, PIK, 2009

900

1000

600

1000

900

World Energy

Projections

1. Economically affordable2. Safe3. Clean4. Risk is low and manageable5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable7. Environmentally benign8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures10. Endogenous learning capacity11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative

externalities & amplifying positive externalities12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption

Dozen Desirable Criteria

Attributes of Green Energy Services

including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?through the entire life cycle?

through the entire lifespan?

from financial and price volatility?to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?

no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?

adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?

low recovery cost and lost time?Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?

scalable production possibilities?

off radar of terrorists or military planners?

A Defensible Green

Energy Criteria Scoring

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste

power

Geo-

thermal

Nat

gas

Bio-

fuels

Oil

imports

Coal

CCS

nuclearTar

sand

Oil

shale

Coal to

liquids

Coal

no

CCS

Promote

CHP +

biowastes

Economically Affordable

Safe

Clean

Secure

Resilient & flexible

Ecologically sustainable

Environmentally benign

Fails gracefully, not catastro

Rebounds easily from failures

Endogenous learning capacity

Robust experience curves

Uninteresting military target

ηeta

SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation

Universal symbol for Efficiency

The best thing

about low-

hanging fruit

is that it keeps

growing back.

Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the

incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 for

developing countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, or

about half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Breakdown by abatement type:

• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture)

• 6 Gt energy efficiency

• 4 Gt low carbon energy supply

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

end-use

efficiency

CCS

Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)

US current

average

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

2¢ 50

33

25

end-use

efficiency

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind

cogen

bldg scale

cogen

recycled

ind cogen

2¢

end-use

efficiency

47

32

23

1¢: 93 kg CO2/$

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced

per dollar spent on electrical services

Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California Energy

Commission, (916) 654-4930, [email protected] , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer Capital

Electricity

Consumption

165 GW

Coal

Power

Plants

Californian’s have

net savings of

$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from

revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting

lower cost efficiency over new power plants or

hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China

to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change

Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction

Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable

90% cost savings

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Public library – North Carolina

Heinz Foundation

Green Building, PA

Oberlin College

Ecology Center,

Ohio

ZERO NET ENERGY &

EMISSION GREEN

BUILDINGS

The Costs and

Financial Benefits of

Green Buildings, A

Report to California’s

Sustainable Building

Task Force, Oct. 2003,

by Greg Kats et al.

$500 to $700

per m2 net

present value

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,

consume half of commercial building electricity.

Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time

lighting, eliminating massive amounts of power

plants with annual savings potential exceeding

tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs.

Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

Daylighting could provide lighting services of

100s of GW power plants

Full use of high performance windows in the

U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan

pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as

well as accrue over $15 billion per year of

savings on energy bills.

Ultra-efficient Windows could save tens of

billions $$ per year & displace Alaskan pipelines

[source: SafeClimate.net]

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year

6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account

$

$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991

CFL factories displace power plants

The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per

year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting

services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-

fired power plant investments used to power less efficient

incandescent lamps.

LED

light-

emitting

diodes

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”

Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants

Earth receives more solar energy every 90 minutes than humanity consumes all year

Source: Doug Balcomb, The Energy Road Ahead, Solar Today, April 2010, www.solartoday.org/

USA Green Energy Services by 2060

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97

year

Tera

Watt

s p

er

year

Fast phase-out

fossil fuels

Global Green Economies-driven

Energy Services this Century

100

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –

1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere

worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never

failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility

afflicting every energy and power source used in driving

economic activity

SUN FUSION PHOTONS

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by

applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and

in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.

Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning Up

Brownfield

Sites w/

PV solar

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%

total US electricity from brownfields

SunSlate Building-Integrated

Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

Material

Replaced

Economic

MeasureBeijing Shanghai

Polished

Stone

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$18,586

2.33

1

+$14,237

2.14

1

Aluminum

NPV ($)

BCR

PBP (yrs)

+$15,373

1.89

2

+$11,024

1.70

2

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)

& Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV

(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and

Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China Economics of Commercial BIPV

Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials

BIPV is so economically attractive because it

captures both energy savings and savings from

displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:

Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPVChina Economics of Commercial BIPV

Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

MW

Compared to:Wind power 121,000 MWNuclear power 350,000 MWHydro power 770,000 MWNatural Gas power 1 million MWCoal power 2 million MW

Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008

40% annual growth rateDoubling <22 months

40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current

total world energy use

2009

21GW

[158,000 in 2009]

2069

Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

Year

Meg

aw

att

s

2000 20692009 2021 2033 2045 2057

Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19

Year

Meg

aw

att

s

2000 21092009 2029 2049 2069 2089

Equal to total world consumption in 2009

59

TW

by

2075

59

TW

by

2119

What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?

Solar PV Growth @ 25% per year

Solar PV Growth @ 15% per year

2109

2089

Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,

[email protected] , http://Solar.gwu.edu/

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis

Solar power beats thermal plants within their

construction lead time—at zero carbon price

1

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1 2

PV NUCLEAR

Billion $ 2008 constant

Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 – 2009)

vs.

Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009)

$4.2

$85

Federal Research & Development Funds

Wind?

Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-battery turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,

2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable

resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

Figures of Merit

Great Plains area1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2

Still available for farming and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South

Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =

Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60

windpower royalty $200 $0

farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of

Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2

mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

Potential Synergisms

2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia --generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered

Droughts

Vehicle-to-Grid

Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet

Convergences & Emergences

Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage

and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-

scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with

3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus

8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity)

providing operating reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable

energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary

PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity

Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional

U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

ENERGY POTENTIAL

U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel

84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million).

ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL

A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion

gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million

barrels per day).

OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL

~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings

AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)

27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,

40% urban PM10, 80% SOx;

BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal

generation).

Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off

Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for

Biofuel Production through Algae Systems

Mississippi River Delta

Yangtze River Pearl River

Small Land footprintOnly Wastewater as Feedstock

Butanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

CO2

ATS

Biodiesel

Fermenter(Clostridium butylicumC. Pasteurianum, etc.)

C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 + …

Biobutanol

EthanolAcetone

Lactic AcidAcetic Acid

Oil

ALGALBIOMASS

SolventExtraction

Nutrient Rich Water(Sewage, polluted river water)

+ atmospheric CO2(or power plant stack gases)

Clean waterLower N P P, higher O2 + pH

Less CO2 in atmosphere

Transesterification

OrganicFertilizer

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

Algae

butanol

biodiesel

Corn (ethanol)

Soy (biodiesel)

Estimated Biofuel Production

(gallons per acre or ha per year)

1520

500

----

2000

----

100

+

Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: [email protected] ph: 202 633-0923

[3,770 gal/ha/yr][5,000 gal/ha/yr]

[1,250 gal/ha/yr]

[250 gal/ha/yr]

Biofuel Production from Algal

Turf Scrubber Biomass(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)

Knowledge

generation

transmission &

distribution

networks

The volume of digital information that exists—500 billion gigabytes--equals a stack of books stretching to Pluto and back 10 times –

36 trillion miles total.

The Library of Congress is the largest library in the world, with nearly 128 million items on approximately 530 miles of bookshelves.

The amount of

data produced

each year

would fill

37,000 libraries

the size of the

Library of

Congress.

Kevin Kelly, Next 5000 days of the Internet, TED talk, 12-20-08, www.ted.org/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

5000 days ago Pre-Web

Pre-Commercial Internet

5000 days from now Global

Cloud Network

Social

Collaboration

building a

Shared Vision

Imperative

What Makes This

Possible?

•Digital Technology

• Internet networks

• Web applications

• Smart Phones &

Handhelds

The WIKIPEDIA Collective Intelligence MODEL:

In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees

Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the

Encyclopedia Britannica

Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 100,000 volunteer editors

and content authors

Translating content into 150+ languages, and

Visited daily by > 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Size of a printed version of Wikipedia within 72 months (2001-2007)

Open Source & Global Access by Mobile Phones & Handhelds

How to fast-track greener cities

www.wbdg.org/ Whole

Building

Design

Guide

Passive Solar Cooling

Passive Solar Heating

Natural Ventilation

Solar Daylighting

Web-based Green Building Advisor

Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

GIS Mapping the Solar

Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,

WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century

Solar smart poly-grids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy

provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based

on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with

administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.

Architecture of Participation

Norman L. Johnson, Science of Collective Intelligence: Resources for change, in chapter in Mark Tovey (ed.). 2008. Collective

Intelligence, Creating a Prosperous World at Peace, www.earth-intelligence.net.

Utility of expert & collective with

increasing complexity

Co

nn

ec

ted

The Universe of

Green Tipping Points

GreenTippingPoints

PHOTRONIC NETWORKS

THANK

YOU!

Michael TottenConservation [email protected]

Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1

incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in 130 nations

Source: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering

Doing the right things wrong

Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1

incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in US states

Source: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering

Doing the right things wrong

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

SEVERE AIR & WATER POLLUTION, DISLOCATED REFUGEES