How Will Links Influence SEO in the Future

Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | [email protected]

The Influence of Links in SEOHow they’re changing, evolving, and

still surprisingly powerful.

bit.ly/randlinks2015

Get the presentation:

Evidence of Links

Fading

Anecdotal Evidence – several folks in

the SEO community have come forward

w/ stories of sites/pages ranking without

links.

☁️☁️

Most of the sources I could find writing

publicly about this aren’t particularly well-

known, and the tactics sound sketchy.

Hard to see behind the CTA, but the

recommendation is to “get in group with

20 SEOs and search n click”

The more credible examples tended to

show how to rank using a site’s inherent,

existing authority (rather than a site

entirely without links)

Via Mashbout

The most credible example came

from Google’s John Mueller, who

claimed a friend had a local site in

Zurich ranking well without links

(sadly, he didn’t share details).

Via SERoundtable

My Bias: Show Repeatable, Transparent

Evidence & Examples

Examples in the SERPs – results where

the most linked-to sites/pages are being

outranked by poorly linked-to alternatives.

⎌⎌

Aha! Since #7 is the most powerful by links, but

doesn’t rank higher, links must be less valuable!

Via Keyword Difficulty

Yarr! Links be a sinking

ship me maties. Abandon

all hope ye who build

them.

Via Mozbar

Non-Link Signals on the Rise – results

where the most linked-to sites/pages are

being outranked by poorly linked-to

alternatives.

✈✈

Topical

Authority

Usage Data (CTR,

Traffic, etc)

User Data &

Personalization

UX (Speed, Mobile-

Friendly, etc)

Topic Modeling /

Hummingbird

Content Quality

Signals

Social Signals (Direct

& Indirect)

Which Signals Are Potentially On the Rise?

Trust & Spam

Signals

e.g. High Correlation of CTR in Searchmetrics’ Recent Study

Via Searchmetrics’ Ranking Factors

Click-Through-Rate showed a 0.67

correlation

Link Manipulation Slowing – spammy

links don’t seem to be as powerful or

prevalent as they have been in the past.

☠☠

Fewer Spammers are Investing in Link Spam at the

Rates of the Prior 15 Years

Via Rank Modifying Spammers and Google Maps: Still Too Easy to Spam

Evidence Links

Are Still Strong

Correlation Data – raw link counts and

algorithmic link metrics are no less

correlated with rankings than 5 years ago.

⚖⚖

Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations

Via Moz’s 2013 Ranking Factors Study

Backlink metrics hovering in the

~0.29 correlation range

Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations

Via Searchmetrics’ Ranking Factors

Raw backlinks count at 0.31

Links Haven’t Budged Much in Ranking Correlations

From Mozscape’s January 2015 Update

Linking Domains count at 0.30

Link Experiments – pointing anchor text

links at a page in the SERPs still has a

dramatic, positive, and nearly immediate

result.

⚓⚓

1) Three word, informational keyword phrase with relatively light

competition and stable rankings

Test Conditions:

2) We selected two results (“A” and “B”), ranking #13 (“A”) and

#20 ( “B”) in logged-out, non-personalized results

3) We pointed links from 20 pages on 20 unique, high-DA, high-

trust, off-topic sites at both “A” and “B”

A) We pointed 20 links from 20

domains at this result with anchor

text exactly matching the query

phrase

#11

#12

#13

#14

#15

#16

#17

#18

#19

#20

B) We pointed 20 links from the

same 20 pages as “A” to this URL

with anchor text that did not contain

any words in the query

#11

#12

#13

#14

#15

#16

#17

#18

#19

#20

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

After 20 days, all of the links had

been indexed by Google. “A” and “B”

both moved up 4 positions. None of

the other results moved more than 2

positions.

Repeat the Experiment!

B) We pointed 20 links from 20

domains to this URL with anchor

text that did not contain any words

in the query

#11

#12

#13

#14

#15

#16

#17

#18

#19

#20

A) We pointed 20 links from the

same pages/domains at this result

with anchor text exactly matching

the query phrase

#11

#12

#13

#14

#15

#16

#17

#18

#19

#20

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

After 16 days, all of the links

had been indexed by Google.

“A” moved up 19 positions to

#1! B moved up 5 positions to

#9. None of the other results

moved more than 2 positions.

More in this Presentation

Google’s Crackdowns – penalization for

bad links continues unabated, and Google

appears to be more aggressive about

them than ever.

✂✂

Google is Clearly Cracking Down on Manipulative

Links

Many Links Are Losing Value, Especially as the Web Grows:

Via BuiltVisible’s Blog

But, Thinking of the Algorithm

as a Pie Chart May Not Be Right:

Via Rand’s Blog

What Might Google

Do With Links(now, or in the future)

Combining Signals – links may only be

helping content, pages, or sites that have

passed other algorithmic quality bars.

⚛⚛

We Know Google’s Applied

Combinations & Filters of Data

in the Past (e.g. Hummingbird)

Via SEO By the Sea

Multiple Algorithms – Google may be

applying different sets or types of ranking

systems in different niches.

✵✵

There’s No Rule Requiring

Google to Apply the Same

Algorithm(s) to Every Type of

Query

Via SEMRush

Machine/Deep Learning – Links may

only be used in rankings when they

correlate positively with successful

searches.

⛽⛽

Jeff Dean’s Slides on Deep Learning

Are a Must Read for SEOs

Google’s Deep Learning system studied YouTube

clips and eventually invented its own

classification/concept of “cats”

Replace YouTube with the Web and cats with any given

search query, and it’s not hard to imagine Google creating a

deep learning ranking algorithm

How Should

Marketers Respond

End Purely SEO-Focused Link Building

– Invest in tactics that serve multiple

marketing purposes AND simultaneously

help to earn links

☣☣

Link from a guest post by

Diana on Selfgrowth.com

Link from a guest post by

Geraldine on MarieClaire.

Run Competitive Analyses that Look

Beyond Links – seek out non-link metrics

that correspond with high vs. low rankings

☸☸

When we focus on links, we’re

sometimes blind to other tactics

sites use to rank well.

Make Link Acquisition a Secondary

Activity – First, earn attention & trust,

then find ways to earn the link.

✒✒

Google has plenty of types of data that correlate well to links – in the future,

those who have links, but lack other signals, will probably lose out.

Test the Power of Links in Your SERPs

– If a diverse set of links won’t move the

needle in your niche, you can move

quickly to other tactics.

☔☔

If you point links here, do the rankings

go up? How many links? How powerful

do they need to be?

Rand Fishkin, Wizard of Moz | @randfish | [email protected]

bit.ly/randlinks2015