How to Use Agile to Move the Earth

@RallyOn

#AgileAus #RallyforImpact

Slides: bit.ly/AgileCTFW

How to use Agile to move the Earth

[email protected]

@RallyOn

#RallyforImpact

Dave Douglas

David Snowden

Kembel Brothers

Mary Poppendieck

Bernard Amadei

Don Reinertsen

Steve Blank

Eric Ries

Shoulders of whom I am standing on

Flikr by ListensVision hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw

Two Failures of Agile – Roy Signham, Agile Aus 2012 1.  Failed at Small end – innovating with less

2.  Failed with bigger social problems

Beyond Agile 1.0 – Roy Signham, Agile Aus 2012 1.  Democratize of software for all – open source

2.  Democratize development of software globally

3.  You need to Contribute

You are the densest Agile Community

What did you choose

to do?

After my own Thoughtworks talks

I Choose

Social MISSION

Create and Mobilize

Citizen Engineers

Responsible Engineering

•  Technically •  Environmentally •  Socially

hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/krisN_decourcy/7625148158/

400 PPM

Glacial - 168 ppm Pre- Industrial – 285 ppm Today – 384 ppm (100 ppm in 100 years)

400 600 800

Billion Tons Carbon

NaNonal Snow and Ice Data Center – University of Colorado, Boulder hFp://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20070810_index.html

2005 2007

source: Stroeve et al, 2007 GRL! and NSIDC 2007 Sea Ice website!

Trends of September sea ice extent - MODELS and OBSERVATIONS"

17

This is not an Environmental

Problem!

Only one force on the planet

large enough to stop this

Business

Move Beyond the Sprint

Beyond the Release

Team Sprint/Flow 1-3 weeks

Program Release Quarterly

Portfolio Steering Quarterly

Options Thinking

The expected payoff occurs because the le3 side has less area than the right side

Reinertsen, Don. Principles of Product Development Flow

http://jchyip.blogspot.com/2010/05/lean-software-and-systems-conference.html (Probability of Failure)

Through Experiments

Faster Cycles

Build

Measure Learn

Effec%veness

Feasibility

Sustainability

Social Jus%ce

Increased Empathy

hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/elestedeloeste/1265202136/

hFp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/45/DiffusionOfInnovaNon.png



hFp://hbr.org/2013/03/big-‐bang-‐disrupNon/

Need to be a disciplined &

ethical explorer

Need ability to apply

appropriate technologies

Supplements to create Citizen Engineers

Engineers Social

Entrepreneurs

hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/7315274972/sizes/m/in/photostream/

Frame & Empathize

Build & Ship

Test & Measure

Learn & Share

Empathize – Explore - Execute

hFp://www.rallydev.com/rallyforimpact/content/engineering-‐soluNons-‐fly

@RallyforImpact

Move the Earth

By Engineering

within Complexity

and Empathy

to Move the Earth

Engineering Assumes

What we are taught and how we created

this situation

Civil Engineer – 1200 to 2000 Eng Physics – 3000 to 5000

In a four year bachelors of science degree:

What we assume

Gaussian distributions

hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-‐mat/0412004

hFp://arxiv.org/abs/cond-‐mat/0412004 hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/danielmorrison/428130095

Gaussian distributions

What surprises us?

Probabilities

80 / 20

Power laws and Pareto distributions


Other Pareto distributions


Low probability events have higher

impact

Plausible

An example

hFp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/howabouFhat/6988398/The-‐worlds-‐tallest-‐man-‐Sultan-‐Kosen-‐and-‐the-‐shortest-‐man-‐in-‐the-‐world-‐He-‐Pingping-‐meet.html

8’1’’ 2’5’’

3.3 x

hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/4368494308

Bill Gates

The Entire Room

650 x

99.8 / 1

How do we make sense of this?

Chaotic Simple Complicated Complex

Uncertainty


Uncertainty

Natural/Social

Systems

Mechanical Systems

Uncertainty

Where does uncertainty live?

Brown, Tim (2009-‐09-‐16). Change by Design (Kindle LocaNon 1984). Harper Collins, Inc.. Kindle EdiNon.


Level of uncertainty

Type of innovation

Sustaining


When to explore vs execute?

What to do


Execute

What to do


Engineering within Complexity

Flikr by _DJ_

Neurons

Synapses

Transistors

Links

Flikr by Jurvtson

.

We are changing the Context!

Flikr by _DJ_

7 Billion

Energy & TransportaNon Technologies

InformaNon Technology

Flikr by Jurvtson

Jim White, Director instaar.colorado.edu

Think like a Scientist!


Do Anything

Follow Recipe Analyze

Guess & Learn

Do Anything!

Follow Recipe !Analyze!Guess &

Learn!

Chaotic! Simple!Complex! Complicated!

Bureaucrat!Engineer!Firefighter! Entrepreneur!

Uncertainty

Prepare

Plan

Uncertainty

Emerge

Analyze

Uncertainty

Explore

Execute

Uncertainty

Customer Development

(FROM LEAN STARTUP)

Agile = Build it Right

Agile = Mindset of Change

Alpha Beta Ship Oh Crap!

Customer Development = Build

the Right Thing

hFp://www.slideshare.net/sblank/the-‐startup-‐owners-‐manual-‐sxsw-‐11954724

Explore Execute

Turn Guesses Frame

Test & Measure

Build &

Ship

Lea

rn

Into Knowledge

First big Guess:

We understand the problem a customer

wants solved

Customers don’t care about your solution. They care about their problems.

“

Dave McClure

Engineering with Empathy

hFp://youtu.be/_vBYjx6ID4g

hFp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGiHU-‐agsGY

2000 – 5000 GIVEN problems

driven to a SINGLE NUMERICAL

answer

Problem Space Defined

Problem Space

Solution Space

Op%on Feasible Effec%ve

1

2

3

hFps://vimeo.com/5485269

Some rights reserved by Marek Mahut

How about an example?

hFp://www.flickr.com/photos/skillerphotos/7875656716

Design Thinking

Design Thinking = Frame the Right

Problem

An Introduction to Design Thinking

?

Maybe a better way?

Disciplined way to turn all this uncertainty

into knowledge

TAKE EACH MAJOR GUESS

RUN AN EXPERIMENT

Background: What do you want to learn and why?

Frame the Experiment: What is your Problem Statement?

Write the Problem Statement from the Define worksheet here. What pain or problem is being experienced?[Customer Segment] needs a way to [describe job to be done], (because|but|surprisingly) [describe insight].

Hypothesis to Test

[Specific repeatable action] will create [expected result].Is this hypothesis falsifiable?

Experiment Details

Describe the experiment you plan to run and how you are going to attempt to falsify your hypothesis.

Safety: How is the experiment safe to run and how will you recover?

Describe how the experiment is safe to run.Describe how you will recover from running the experiment upon completion or if you discover it isn’t safe to run.

Measures

What will you measure to invalidate your hypothesis?What will you measure to indicate the experiment is safe to run?What will you measure to indicate you should amplify the experiment?Measures can be Qualitative and Quantitative.

Experiment Backlog

Stack ranked list of actions needed to run the experiment.

Next Steps: Given what you learned, what’s next?

Experiment Results and Learnings

Describe what you learned from the experiment? Did you invalidate your hypothesis or does it live on?

Experiment Name:

Owner:

Mentor: Date:

I-2

Next guess:

Our product solves the customer’s

problem

Chaotic! Simple!Complicated!Complex!

Product lifecycle!

What happened to this company?

AGILE

CUSTOMER DEVELOPMENT

1

Began Using Lean Startup 1

2

$50M in New Product Revenue 2

3

1800 Concurrent Experiments 3

Social Entrepreneuring

EXAMPLE

Effec%veness

Feasibility

Sustainability

Desirability

Flikr by ListensVision hFp://youtu.be/V1vQCpqHQHw

We need more work here ��

I want YOU to choose ��

Share a Citizen Engineering Story

http://www.sparkminute.com/2010/08/05/wireds-kevin-kelly-on-what-technology-wants/

Thank You

@RallyOn

#rallyforimpact

Slides: bit.ly/AgileCTFW