How to save Japan from demographic catastrophe No biological incentives
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
How to save Japan from demographic catastrophe
No
bio
logi
cal i
nce
nti
ves
Japanese are disappearing because Japan birth rate 1.41 is way below the replacement value of 2.1
Why?
Why do humans do what they do? Maximizing pleasures, minimizing pain
(= hedonism)
Maslow’s pyramid of human needs
Satisfying a need pleasure
In modern societies, there are many sources of pleasures other than love and family
Why did birth rates drop in developed countries?
In 20th century, human hedonism became the worst enemy of human reproduction
Human hedonism supports human reproduction
Human hedonism prevents human reproduction
Effective birth control Loss of financial incentives Loss of traditional morality
Origin of Japan crisis #1 Pension system and decline of farming due
to industrialization and urbanization eliminated financial incentives to have kids
+ =
Industrialization Urbanization Decline of family farming
Pension system
No financial incentives to have kids
Origin of Japan crisis #2 Destruction of 3-generation family model eliminated moral incentives to have kids
= No moral incentives to have kids
Origin of Japan crisis #3 Effective birth control broke the biological
mechanism of human procreation
+ = No biological incentivies to have kids
No
bio
logi
cal i
nce
nti
ves
Origin of Japan fertility crisis Summary:
How to raise Japan birth rate?
Human hedonism supports human reproduction
Human hedonism prevents human reproduction
Make human hedonism to support human reproduction again
supports
What can Japan learn from other societies?
Immigration has a short-term effect on birth rates
Intergenerational Fertility Among Hispanic Women: New Evidence of Immigrant Assimilation EMILIO A. PARRADO and S. PHILIP MORGAN Demography. 2008 Aug; 45(3): 651–671.
In US, birth rate of Hispanics immigrants decline with every next generation
No
bio
logi
cal i
nce
nti
ves
Using financial incentives to increase birth rates
Fixing this
Financial incentives alone have a limited effect on birth rates
Birth rate in Germany: 2000 – 1.38 2013 – 1.39
Natalist policy from 2007: Get up-to $25,000 per year for taking care about a child
Birth rate in France: 2000 – 1.89 2013 – 1.99
Natalist policies: State-funded child care 16 weeks paid maternity leave for the first child, rising to 26 weeks for the third child. 26 months parental leave.
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Fertility_statistics
No
bio
logi
cal i
nce
nti
ves
Using morality to increase birth rates
Fixing this
Morality, ideologies, and religions can increase birth rates
Amish
Fertility rate: 6.2 Fertility rate: ~3.0
Mormons Muslims
Fertility rate: 3.1
No
bio
logi
cal i
nce
nti
ves
Un-breaking Nature mechanisms to increase birth rates
Fixing this
Fixing Nature mechanism of human procreation can increase birth rates
Example of Ireland
Fixing the biological mechanism of human procreation
No abortions allowed
+
Religion
84.2% are Catholic
= The second largest fertility rate in Europe
1.99
No
bio
logi
cal i
nce
nti
ves
Japan needs to use all three types of incentives to raise birth rates
Fixing this
Fixing this Fixing this
Solution #1 for Japan demographic disaster
Make future pensions of young people dependent on the number of their kids.
1 kid=25% pension increase
2 kids=50% pension increase
3 or more kids=75% pension increase
Creating a strong financial incentives to have kids
There is no up-front cost!
Solution #2 for Japan demographic disaster
Make it a civil duty for future children to provide a support for their elderly parents
Create strong financial incentives to have kids
Return the favor
fund
5% of salary
After age of 30
To parents after age of 65
To orphanages if no parents
To public schools
The more kids, the bigger the pension
or
or
Solution #3 for Japan demographic disaster
Make it a civil duty to raise your replacement in the society Creating strong financial incentives to have kids
Investment
Civil duty
Re-investment
Civil duty
Family & society Kids
Family and society helps kids to survive & learn skills
Kids raise their own children as a replacement in the society
Available options: 1) Raise your own genetic
or adopted kids
2) Pay society to find a replacement for you via
Replenish Japan fund
Pay for orphan Pay for immigrant
Solution #4 for Japan demographic disaster
Limit the use of birth control methods
Fix the biological mechanism of human procreation
Abortions Vasectomy Tubal ligation
should be allowed only after the 2nd child Abortions should be also allowed after a rape or for medical and poverty reasons
Solution #5 for Japan demographic disaster
Create strong moral incentives to have kids via pro-natalist media campaign and demographics classes in school
Stay tuned
Bio-natalism updates can be found on:
http://www.slideshare.net/bionatalism
Related Documents
