How to Model Viral Growth Author Rahul Vohra Walkthrough http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20121002124206-188 Contact [email protected] www.linkedin.com/in/rahulvohra www.facebook.com/rahul.vohra www.twitter.com/rahulvohra
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 1/24
How to Model Viral Growth
Author Rahul Vohra
Walkthrough http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20121002124206-188
Contact [email protected]
www.linkedin.com/in/rahulvohra
www.facebook.com/rahul.vohra
www.twitter.com/rahulvohra
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 2/24
6785-how-to-model-viral-growth-the-hybrid-model
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 3/24
The Simplest Possible Model
Variables
Intial users 5,000 Viral factor 0.2
Output
Month Users (month start) Growth
1 5,000 1,000
2 6,000 200
3 6,200 40 4 6,240 8
5 6,248 2
6 6,250 0
7 6,250 0
8 6,250 0
9 6,250 0
10 6,250 0
11 6,250 0
12 6,250 0
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 4/24
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Users (month start)
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 5/24
The Hybrid Model
Variables
Launch press 70,000
App store search growth
App store downloads / month 40,000
% who activate 60%
App store search growth / month 24,000
Direct traffic growth
Direct traffic downloads / month 10,000
% who activate 60%
Direct traffic growth / month 6,000
Viral factor 0.2
Output
Month Users (month start) Launch press App store
1 - 70,000 24,000
2 104,000 - 24,000 3 158,800 - 24,000
4 203,760 - 24,000
5 246,752 - 24,000
6 289,350 - 24,000
7 331,870 - 24,000
8 374,374 - 24,000
9 416,875 - 24,000
10 459,375 - 24,000
11 501,875 - 24,000
12 544,375 - 24,000
13 586,875 - 24,000
14 629,375 - 24,000
15 671,875 - 24,000
16 714,375 - 24,000
17 756,875 - 24,000
18 799,375 - 24,000
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 6/24
19 841,875 - 24,000
20 884,375 - 24,000
21 926,875 - 24,000
22 969,375 - 24,000
23 1,011,875 - 24,000
24 1,054,375 - 24,000
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 7/24
Direct traffic Viral growth Total growth
10,000 104,000
10,000 20,800 54,800 10,000 10,960 44,960
10,000 8,992 42,992
10,000 8,598 42,598
10,000 8,520 42,520
10,000 8,504 42,504
10,000 8,501 42,501
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
1 2 3 4
U
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 8/24
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
10,000 8,500 42,500
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 9/24
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
ers (month start)
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 10/24
Virality as the Amplification Factor
Viral factor, v Amplification factor, a
- 1.00
0.10 1.11 0.20 1.25
0.30 1.43
0.40 1.67
0.50 2.00
0.60 2.50
0.70 3.33
0.80 5.00
0.90 10.00
0.95 20.00
0.98 40.00 0.99 100.00
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
- 0.10
A m p l i f i c a t i o n F a c t o r
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 11/24
a = 1.25
a = 1.67
a = 3.33
0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
Viral Factor
mplification Factor vs. Viral Factor
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 12/24
The Hybrid Model, with Simple Loss
Variables
Launch press 70,000
App store search growth
App store downloads / month 40,000
% who activate 60%
App store search growth / month 24,000
Direct traffic growth
Direct traffic downloads / month 10,000
% who activate 60%
Direct traffic growth / month 6,000
Viral factor 0.2
% of users lost / month 15%
Output
Month Users (month start) Launch press App store
1 - 70,000 24,000
2 104,000 - 24,000
3 143,200 - 24,000
4 166,680 - 24,000
5 184,670 - 24,000
6 199,568 - 24,000
7 212,152 - 24,000
8 222,833 - 24,000
9 231,909 - 24,000
10 239,623 - 24,000
11 246,180 - 24,000
12 251,753 - 24,000
13 256,490 - 24,000
14 260,516 - 24,000
15 263,939 - 24,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 13/24
16 266,848 - 24,000
17 269,321 - 24,000
18 271,423 - 24,000
19 273,209 - 24,000
20 274,728 - 24,000
21 276,019 - 24,000
22 277,116 - 24,000
23 278,049 - 24,000
24 278,841 - 24,000
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 14/24
Direct traffic Viral growth Gross growth Loss Net growth
10,000 104,000 - 104,000
10,000 20,800 54,800 (15,600) 39,200
10,000 10,960 44,960 (21,480) 23,480
10,000 8,992 42,992 (25,002) 17,990
10,000 8,598 42,598 (27,701) 14,898
10,000 8,520 42,520 (29,935) 12,584
10,000 8,504 42,504 (31,823) 10,681
10,000 8,501 42,501 (33,425) 9,076
10,000 8,500 42,500 (34,786) 7,714
10,000 8,500 42,500 (35,943) 6,557
10,000 8,500 42,500 (36,927) 5,573
10,000 8,500 42,500 (37,763) 4,737
10,000 8,500 42,500 (38,473) 4,027
10,000 8,500 42,500 (39,077) 3,423
10,000 8,500 42,500 (39,591) 2,909
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Users (month start)
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 15/24
10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,027) 2,473
10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,398) 2,102
10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,713) 1,787
10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,981) 1,519
10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,209) 1,291
10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,403) 1,097
10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,567) 933
10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,707) 793
10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,826) 674
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 16/24
The Retention Curve
Week Retention
1 81%
2 74%3 82%
4 65%
5 64%
6 62%
7 58%
8 53%
9 58%
10 54%
11 54%
12 55%13 47%
14 47%
15 43%
16 48%
17 49%
18 48%
19 49%
20 49%
21 45%
22 45%
23 44%
24 39%
25 39%
26 38%
27 39%
28 40%
29 41%
30 42%
31 45%
32 40%
33 42%
34 37%
35 38%
36 40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 4 8 12 16
Weeks since u
Example Rete
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 17/24
20 24 28 32 36
er was acquired
ntion Curve
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 18/24
The Virality Curve
Month Viral Factor
1 0.2
2 0.13 0.05
4 0.025
5 0.0125
6 0.00625
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
1 2 3
V i r a l F a c t o r
Month since
Example Vir
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 19/24
4 5 6
user was acquired
lity Curve
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 20/24
The Hybrid Model, with Retention and Virality Curves
Variables
Launch press 70,000
App store search growth
App store downloads / month 40,000
% who activate 60%
App store search growth / week 24,000
Direct traffic growth
Direct traffic downloads / week 10,000
% who activate 60%
Direct traffic growth / week 6,000
Virality
Viral factor decay 0.50
Viral factor month 1 0.20
Viral factor month 2 0.10
Viral factor month 3 0.05
Viral factor month 4 0.03
Viral factor month 5 0.01
Viral factor month 6 0.01
Lifetime viral factor 0.39
Retention
Retention month 0 -> 1 65%
Retention month 0 -> 2 55%
Retention month 0 -> 3 51%
Retention month 0 -> 4 48%
Retention month 0 -> 5 44%
Retention month 0 -> 6 40%
Output
Month Users (month start) Launch press App store Direct traffic
-4
-3
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1 2 3
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 21/24
-2
-1
0
1 - 70,000 24,000 10,000
2 67,600 - 24,000 10,000
3 88,088 - 24,000 10,000
4 109,269 - 24,000 10,000
5 128,407 - 24,000 10,000
6 145,638 - 24,000 10,000
7 161,061 - 24,000 10,000
8 178,637 - 24,000 10,000
9 196,206 - 24,000 10,000
10 213,814 - 24,000 10,000
11 231,445 - 24,000 10,000
12 249,092 - 24,000 10,000
13 266,750 - 24,000 10,000
14 284,417 - 24,000 10,000
15 302,087 - 24,000 10,000
16 319,758 - 24,000 10,000
17 337,430 - 24,000 10,000
18 355,103 - 24,000 10,000
19 372,775 - 24,000 10,000
20 390,448 - 24,000 10,000
21 408,121 - 24,000 10,000
22 425,794 - 24,000 10,000 23 443,467 - 24,000 10,000
24 461,141 - 24,000 10,000
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 22/24
Viral growth Gross growth Loss Net growth
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
Users (month start)
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1 2 3 4
Growth C
Launch press App sto
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 23/24
104,000 (36,400) 67,600
13,520 47,520 (27,032) 20,488
11,898 45,898 (24,716) 21,181
11,245 45,245 (26,108) 19,138
10,859 44,859 (27,628) 17,231
10,629 44,629 (29,206) 15,423
10,493 44,493 (26,918) 17,576
10,295 44,295 (26,726) 17,569
10,244 44,244 (26,636) 17,608
10,217 44,217 (26,586) 17,631
10,201 44,201 (26,554) 17,647
10,193 44,193 (26,534) 17,658
10,188 44,188 (26,521) 17,667
10,185 44,185 (26,516) 17,670
10,184 44,184 (26,513) 17,671
10,184 44,184 (26,511) 17,672
10,183 44,183 (26,511) 17,673
10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673
10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673
10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673
10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673
10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673 10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673
10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673
7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/how-to-model-viral-growth 24/24
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
annels and User Loss
re Direct traffic Viral growth Loss