How to Estimate Post-Disaster How to Estimate Post-Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Needs Using the UN-ECLAC Methodology Using the UN-ECLAC Methodology For Assessment of Damage, Losses and For Assessment of Damage, Losses and Needs Needs J. Roberto Jovel J. Roberto Jovel
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How to Estimate Post-Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Using the UN-ECLAC Methodology For Assessment of Damage, Losses and Needs J. Roberto Jovel.
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How to Estimate Post-Disaster How to Estimate Post-Disaster Recovery and Reconstruction NeedsRecovery and Reconstruction Needs
Using the UN-ECLAC MethodologyUsing the UN-ECLAC MethodologyFor Assessment of Damage, Losses and NeedsFor Assessment of Damage, Losses and Needs
J. Roberto JovelJ. Roberto Jovel
29Sep08 RJovel 2
ContentsContents
1.1. IntroductionIntroduction
2.2. Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework
3.3. Why Do We Need an Assessment?Why Do We Need an Assessment?
4.4. Scope of AssessmentScope of Assessment
5.5. How Do We Do an Assessment?How Do We Do an Assessment?
6.6. When Should it be Done? When Should it be Done?
7.7. Who Should Do the AssessmentWho Should Do the Assessment
8.8. Information RequirementsInformation Requirements
1. Introduction1. Introduction
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Typical Post-Disaster Typical Post-Disaster Stages and ActivitiesStages and Activities
Typical Damage and LossesTypical Damage and Losses
DamageDamageHousing and household Housing and household
goodsgoodsHospital and schools, Hospital and schools,
and contentsand contentsAgriculture lands and Agriculture lands and
irrigation systemsirrigation systemsRoads and bridgesRoads and bridgesPorts and airportsPorts and airportsWater supply systemsWater supply systemsElectrical systemsElectrical systems
LossesLosses
Production losses in Production losses in agriculture, fishery, agriculture, fishery, livestock, industry, livestock, industry, commerce, tourismcommerce, tourism
Higher operational costs Higher operational costs and lower revenues in and lower revenues in electricity, water electricity, water supply and transportsupply and transport
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The Timing of Disaster EffectsThe Timing of Disaster Effects
Time, months
DamageDamage
LosseLossess
5 yrs
Full Full ReconstructioReconstructio
n and n and Economic Economic RecoveryRecovery
3. Why Do We Need an Assessment?3. Why Do We Need an Assessment?
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Objectives of AssessmentObjectives of Assessment
1.1. To obtain a quantitative estimation of the To obtain a quantitative estimation of the value of destruction or value of destruction or damage to assetsdamage to assets and of changes or and of changes or losses in economic losses in economic flowsflows due to the disaster due to the disaster
2.2. To identify the impact of the disaster on To identify the impact of the disaster on the overall functioning or performance of the overall functioning or performance of the economy of the affected country or the economy of the affected country or area, and also on individual persons or area, and also on individual persons or on householdson households
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Objectives of Assessment..Objectives of Assessment..
3.3. To identify the capacity of the State to To identify the capacity of the State to undertake on its own all recovery, undertake on its own all recovery, reconstruction, and disaster risk reconstruction, and disaster risk management programs and activitiesmanagement programs and activities
4.4. To ascertain whether international To ascertain whether international assistance should be provided, its scope assistance should be provided, its scope and timeframeand timeframe
5.5. To identify specific public sector actions at To identify specific public sector actions at the State or lower levels to be undertaken in the State or lower levels to be undertaken in the short, medium and long term to ensure the short, medium and long term to ensure recovery and reconstructionrecovery and reconstruction
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Objectives of Assessment...Objectives of Assessment...
6.6. To estimate financial, technical and To estimate financial, technical and human resource requirements or human resource requirements or needs to implement the agreed needs to implement the agreed upon programs of recovery, upon programs of recovery, reconstruction and risk reconstruction and risk management, duly broken down management, duly broken down into actions at the Central, State, into actions at the Central, State, Provincial, District or Community Provincial, District or Community levelslevels
4. Scope of Assessment4. Scope of Assessment
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Scope of AssessmentScope of Assessment
The assessment should cover the entire The assessment should cover the entire area affected by the disaster and broken area affected by the disaster and broken down by geo-political divisionsdown by geo-political divisions
All sectors of economic activity that may All sectors of economic activity that may have sustained positive or negative have sustained positive or negative disaster effects must be covereddisaster effects must be covered
List of sectors to be assessed is defined on List of sectors to be assessed is defined on basis of economic activities included in basis of economic activities included in country´s system of national accountscountry´s system of national accounts
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List of Typical SectorsList of Typical Sectors
5. How Do We Do an Assessment?5. How Do We Do an Assessment?
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Process for AssessmentProcess for Assessment
1.1. Sector-by-sector assessment Sector-by-sector assessment 2.2. Aggregation of individual sector Aggregation of individual sector
assessments, ensuring no double accounting assessments, ensuring no double accounting or gapsor gaps
3.3. Analysis of macro-economic impactAnalysis of macro-economic impact– Gross domestic productGross domestic product– External sectorExternal sector– Fiscal sectorFiscal sector
4.4. Analysis of personal/household impactAnalysis of personal/household impact5.5. Estimation of needs for recovery and Estimation of needs for recovery and
reconstructionreconstruction
Typical Results of AssessmentTypical Results of AssessmentSummary of DaLASummary of DaLA
Macro-Economic ImpactMacro-Economic ImpactImpact at Personal LevelImpact at Personal Level
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2006 Yogyakarta Earthquake2006 Yogyakarta EarthquakeSummary of Total EffectsSummary of Total Effects
Sector Sector
and Subsectorand Subsector
Total Effects, Rp BillionTotal Effects, Rp Billion
Economic Recovery Economic Recovery Program ComponentsProgram Components
Modifications to public policies to mitigate macro-Modifications to public policies to mitigate macro-economic and individual impacteconomic and individual impact– Income generation schemes for most affected Income generation schemes for most affected
population groups, with special reference to those that population groups, with special reference to those that are not credit worthyare not credit worthy
– Temporary shelter provision and housing rehabilitationTemporary shelter provision and housing rehabilitation– Social sector recovery programsSocial sector recovery programs– Provision of soft term financing to re-start production Provision of soft term financing to re-start production
activities in micro, small and medium sized enterprisesactivities in micro, small and medium sized enterprises– Introduction of temporary tax relief measures to assist Introduction of temporary tax relief measures to assist
producers (from micro to large)producers (from micro to large)– Facilitation of construction permits to provide minimum Facilitation of construction permits to provide minimum
delays of reconstruction start and executiondelays of reconstruction start and execution
Reconstruction ProgrammeReconstruction ProgrammeFinancing NeedsFinancing NeedsReconstruction priorities:Reconstruction priorities:- SectorialSectorial- GeographicalGeographical- Population groupsPopulation groups
Financing FormulaFinancing Formula
• Government fundsGovernment funds• Private sector fundsPrivate sector funds• Insurance proceedsInsurance proceeds• International grantsInternational grants• International loansInternational loans
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Typical Activities for Reconstruction Typical Activities for Reconstruction and Disaster Risk Reductionand Disaster Risk Reduction
6. When Should the Assessment Be Done?6. When Should the Assessment Be Done?
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TimeframeTimeframe
Period required for typical assessment: 2 to 4 Period required for typical assessment: 2 to 4 weeks depending on complexity of disaster weeks depending on complexity of disaster and extension of affected areaand extension of affected area
Start after certain conditions have been met:Start after certain conditions have been met:– Availability of government officials to participate Availability of government officials to participate
in assessmentin assessment– Availability of baseline and disaster effects Availability of baseline and disaster effects
informationinformation– Adequate access to and within affected areasAdequate access to and within affected areas
Therefore, damage and loss assessment Therefore, damage and loss assessment should not begin until after the humanitarian should not begin until after the humanitarian stage is over and when the natural stage is over and when the natural phenomena has abatedphenomena has abated
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Typical ScheduleTypical Schedule
29Sep08 RJovel 48
Accuracy vs OpportunityAccuracy vs Opportunity
• Urgent need to produce assessment and Urgent need to produce assessment and obtain financial support for recovery and obtain financial support for recovery and reconstructionreconstruction
• Speed more important than 100% Speed more important than 100% accuracyaccuracy
• Nevertheless, aim for highest possible Nevertheless, aim for highest possible accuracy by combiningaccuracy by combining– Best available professionalsBest available professionals– Best available informationBest available information– Adequate and reliable methodological tool Adequate and reliable methodological tool
for assessmentfor assessment
7. Who Should Do the Assessment7. Who Should Do the Assessment
A Well-Integrated, Multi-Disciplinary Team:A Well-Integrated, Multi-Disciplinary Team:Government-ledGovernment-led
Assisted by UN, IFIs, NGOsAssisted by UN, IFIs, NGOs
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List of SpecialistsList of Specialists
8. Information Requirements8. Information Requirements
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Baseline Data, generalBaseline Data, general
Most recent population censusMost recent population census
Most recent household surveyMost recent household survey
Annual production statisticsAnnual production statistics
Production forecastsProduction forecasts
Annual reports for utilitiesAnnual reports for utilities
Annual economic and social surveysAnnual economic and social surveys
Other economic and financial reportsOther economic and financial reports
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Baseline Data, by SectorBaseline Data, by Sector
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Training on DaLATraining on DaLA
GFDRR is training World Bank Staff on DaLA GFDRR is training World Bank Staff on DaLA procedures since April 2007procedures since April 2007
So far, more than 275 Staff have been trained and some So far, more than 275 Staff have been trained and some of them have already participated in field of them have already participated in field assessmentsassessments
GFDRR is also training core groups of country experts GFDRR is also training core groups of country experts that can undertake such assessments after disastersthat can undertake such assessments after disasters
National training workshops have been done in National training workshops have been done in Indonesia, Philippines, India, Myanmar, as well as in Indonesia, Philippines, India, Myanmar, as well as in Senegal, Madagascar and UgandaSenegal, Madagascar and Uganda
Many more similar events are scheduled for FY09Many more similar events are scheduled for FY09