How to Be Persuasive by Google's Group Product Manager

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HOW TO BE

PERSUASIVE

odean.com/convincing

Our lived experience is comprised of two separate and distinct systems.(this is an oversimplification, but a useful one)

System #1fast and cheap, but error prone

System #2precise, but expensive and slow

System #1 System #2

Fast

Effortless

Involuntary

Black/White

Approximate

Confident

Slow

Effortful

Deliberate

Nuanced

Precise

Skeptical

System #1 System #2

Fast

Effortless

Involuntary

Black/White

Approximate

Confident

Slow

Effortful

Deliberate

Nuanced

Precise

Skeptical

ARE YOU FEELING

RATIONAL?odean.com/CONVINCE-YOURSELF

Just study this slide

iktitaf nansoma biwonjni nansoma iktitaf nansoma

nansoma nansoma biwonjni saricik iktitaf nansoma iktitaf

nansoma iktitaf nansoma biwonjni nansoma iktitaf nansoma

iktitaf nansoma nansoma iktitaf nansoma saricik nansoma

iktitaf nansoma Kadirga nansoma iktitaf nansoma iktitaf

nansoma biwonjni nansoma biwonjni iktitaf nansoma Kadirga

nansoma iktitaf nansoma biwonjni nansoma iktitaf nansoma

Which is larger?

#1: (A) ½ OR (B) 1

#2: (A) 8/100 OR (B) 1/10

#3: (A) 23/45 OR (B) 34/67

#4: (A) 1 IN 17 OR (B) 0.06

Write two numbers:

#1: THE LAST TWO DIGITS

OF YOUR CELL PHONE

#2: YOUR ESTIMATE OF THE

TOTAL # OF GOOGLE VPS

How much $

tHERE IS A 1/10,000 CHANCE

YOU HAVE A FATAL DISEASE.

hOW MUCH WOULD YOU

PAY FOR THE cURE?

UNDERSTANDING

COGNITIVE BIASES

Even if you understand an optical illusion, it isn’t possible to unsee it.

Cognitive illusions operate the same way. You can’t outsmart them.

Availability

Anchoring

Representation

Coherence

Framing

Availability

Anchoring

Representation

Coherence

Framing

Availability causes ideas that come to mind easily to seem more true.

Feels

Vivid

Recent

Frequent

Clear Display

Good Mood

Familiar

Common

Likely

Good

True

Availability is why advertising works.

Feels

Vivid

Recent

Frequent

Clear Display

Good Mood

Familiar

Common

Likely

Good

True

… and why heavy news coverage makes us overestimate risks.

Feels

Vivid

Recent

Frequent

Clear Display

Good Mood

Familiar

Common

Likely

Good

True

Availability can also operate in reverse.

Feels

Vague

Diffuse

Hard to picture

Unknown

Bad Mood

Foreign

Rare

Unlikely

Bad

False

Availability

Anchoring

Representation

Coherence

Framing

We estimate things by anchoring on a reference value as a starting point. Adjusting from the anchor is effortful, so we tend to err in that direction.

We also experience anchoring from readily available comparisons.

Web - $59

Web & Print - $125

Web - $59

Print - $125

Web & Print - $125

Availability

Anchoring

Representation

Coherence

Framing

System #1 isn’t great at math, so we evaluate packages and outcomes by estimating a representative norm rather than as a sum.

SET A SET B

WHEN WE COMPARE VALUE DIRECTLY

$ < $$

WHEN WE ESTIMATE VALUE SEPARATELY

$$ > $

Availability

Anchoring

Representation

Coherence

Framing

We don’t have good natural intuitions about probability. Instead we estimate how likely things are by the coherence of the story we can build explaining them.

xkcd.com/552

A desire for coherence also causes us to ignore contradictions, which causes the Halo Effect and is why this sentence is uncomfortable:

Hitler loved puppies

Coherence also gives us Confirmation Bias - changing our minds is effortful because it requires overcoming the inconsistency with our past selves.

CHAINSAWSUIT.COM

Availability

Anchoring

Representation

Coherence

Framing

Framing effects can make us perceive the same circumstances differently, depending on how the information is presented.

Organ donation consent rate by country

Framing determines what choice is seen as default or normal. Deviating from normal is more effortful and we also perceive it as riskier.

opt-in vrs opt-out

Understanding

Prospect Theory

We intuitively evaluate outcomes as a gain or a loss from a reference point,and we are ~2-2.5x as loss averse as we are drawn to gains.

VA

LU

E

GAINSLOSSES

We can only perceive a minimum quanta of risk, so our ability to estimate rare events is very poor. We round up on some risks and down on others.

WE OVERESTIMATE RARE EVENTS WHEN THEY ARE:

precise / easy to picture

described to us

emotionally significant

on our minds recently

represented concretely (~1 in 1000 children, e.g.)

WE UNDERESTIMATE RARE EVENTS WHEN THEY ARE:

diffuse / difficult to picture

remembered from experience

emotionally insignificant

not recently relevant

represented abstractly (~0.1% of children, e.g.)

Separately from our ability to estimate risk, we also intuitively overvalue both possibility (gambling) and certainty (insurance).

ESTIMATED PROBABILITY

DE

CIS

ION

WE

IGH

T

The combination of loss aversion and our intuitive weighing of riskcreate what Kahneman calls The 4-Fold Pattern.

LOSSES GAINSN

EA

R C

ER

TA

INTY

PO

SS

IBIL

ITY

FEARFUL(Accept settlement)

FEARFUL(Buy insurance)

HOPEFUL(Reject plea deal)

Hopeful(Buy lottery Tickets)

ARE YOU FEELING

RATIONAL?PART II

Just study this slide

Tyler is great i am really enjoying this talk Tyler is great i

am really enjoying this talk Tyler is great i am really

enjoying this talk Tyler is great i am really enjoying this

talk Tyler is great i am really enjoying this talk Tyler is

great i am really enjoying this talk Tyler is great i am really

enjoying this talk Tyler is great i am really enjoying this

talk Tyler is great i am really enjoying this talk Tyler is

What % chance?

The project has 100 dependencies.

Each has a 95% chance to go

according to plan. What % of the

time should we expect the project

to go according to plan?

Rank these wordsFROM MOST NEGATIVE (-2) to MOST POSITIVE (2)

Iktitaf

kadirga

nansoma

Biwonji

saricik

HOw MUCH $

A PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY

WANTS TO RUN A TEST WHERE

THERE IS A 1/10,000 CHANCE OF

BECOMING INFECTED WITH A FATAL

DISEASE. hOW MUCH WOULD THEY

NEED TO PAY YOU TO PARTICIPATE?

LEVERAGING

COGNITIVE BIASES

Keep it simpleWeak arguments weaken strong ones

One thesis at a time

Never surprise anyoneIntroduce ideas like you would cats:

slowly at first, and in limited ways

Make it easy to agreeMake your preferred choice the default

Don’t leave behind open questions

Set the reference pointDescribe outcomes as losses/gains from your preferred reference

Know where that puts you on the 4-Fold Pattern

Control the presentationDial up or down emphasis by making things more concrete or abstract

Keep flattering comparisons close, remove unflattering ones entirely

AdVERSARIAL

PERSUASION

Argue as little as possible

Agree as often as you can

Ignore irrelevant inaccuracies

Define the disagreement narrowly

Argue forwards, not backwards

Easier to argue new information changes things

than that old assessments were wrong.

Argue Both sides

Traffic in arguments, not opinions

Loan your rhetoric out freely

Play the Long Game

Be prepared to be persuaded

Leave some meat on the bone

NOW LET US DO

SCIENCE

Which is larger?

1 > 1/21/10 > 8/100

23/45 > 34/67 6% > 1 in 17

THe scary disease

# of VPs / Them Digits

All the best words

According to plan

Q & A

odean.com/convincing

Part-time Product Management Courses in Silicon Valley, New York and Los Angeles

www.productschool.com