How the Current Projection of Military Power is Ill Suited to a Rapidly Changing World THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES.

How the Current Projection of Military Power is Ill Suited to a Rapidly Changing World

THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS

Prior to 9/11 the world was a much simpler place…

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS

Or was it?

1

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS

• Over 150 U.S. Contingency responses since the end of the cold war – all that conflict didn’t just come from nowhere

• 95% of those deployments happened in the third world – a paradigm shift from the 1st world vs. 2nd world conflict we had grown accustomed to.

• Of those deployments almost 1/3 didn’t call of the use of lethal force at all, but instead consisted of humanitarian aide and peacekeeping operations.

2

HOW HISTORY LEFT US BEHIND50 YEARS OF FOREIGN POLICY IN 50 SECONDS

• So where does that leave us now? Fighting two distinctly different foes:

Regular Armies fromCountries that don’t like us.

Insurgent Armies fromCountries that don’t like us&

HISTORICAL AND CURRENT THREATS

Conventional Threats Non-Conventional or Guerrilla Threats

IranIraq

WHAT WE IDEALLY WANT TO SEE HAPPEN

Invade Bad Guy’s Country

Take Down The Evil Dictator

Install Popular Government

WHAT WE ACTUALLY END UP DEALING WITH:

3

IRAQ WAR TIMETABLE

2004 20052003

3/19 – Invasion Begins5/1 – Mission Accomplished12/14 – Saddam Captured

1/12 – WMD search called off5/30 – Insurgency in its “last throes”12/15 – Constituion is ratified

1/22 – CIA warns Insurgency9/7 – Death toll hits 1000Nov. – Deadliest Single Month

Yet despite achieving all that the American military set out to achieve, it would take another 6 yearsof violence and war before the U.S. would finally leave the country

3

AND IF YOU THOUGHT IRAQ WAS BAD…

4

WHO ENDS UP SHOULDERING THE BURDEN?

In 2003 the U.S. Military defeated theentire Iraqi Armed Forces in sixweeks with 150 combat casualties.

Despite this, by 2012 that number had risen to 4,404 dead and 31,827 wounded.

5

150 COMBAT CASUALTIES IN SIX WEEKS…

6

WHO ENDS UP SHOULDERING THE BURDEN?

680 BILLION

7

CLOSING THE BUDGET HOLE:THE NATIONAL DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT

Governs DoD Spending - FY 2012

Authorized December 31 2011

Conventional Military Juggernaut

Unconventional Counter-Terror Force

Unconventional Counter-Terror Force

Diverts funding from conventional to unconventional warfare unitsUSSOCOM budget quadruples over the course of Iraq + Afghanistan

8

WHY DO WE NEED TWO ARMIES? ISN’T ONE GOOD ENOUGH?

Here’s our first type of threat.How do we respond?

WHY DO WE NEED TWO ARMIES?ISN’T ONE GOOD ENOUGH?

Here’s our second type of threat.

Responding this way will lose you friends very quickly.

LIBYA – THE NEW MODEL FOR LARGE SCALE U.S. INTERVENTION

• Waited for international communityto request that we intervene.

• Formed coalition out of thosenations willing to stand with us.

• Kept our ground forces way back,waged the whole war from the air.

• Gave local population no reasonto take up arms against us.

Bottom line: We showed up at the party we were invited to, and didn’t overstay our welcome.

9

IRAN: OUR NEWEST CONVENTIONAL THREAT

10

WHY A FIGHT WITH IRAN IS BAD FOR BUSINESS

1/5 of the entire world’sMaritime oil trade passesthrough the Strait of Hormuz

Summer 2002 – last time US Navy conducted wargames focused on Iran

Found that US NAVY unprepared to fight anasymmetrical battle; weapons and tactics stillcentered around Soviet era threat

At conclusion of war games 16 US ships, includingone aircraft carrier, lay at the bottom of the PersianGulf

11

LESSONS TO BE LEARNED

• illustrates the need to update conventional force against smaller, lighter, faster threats

• Shows that the U.S. military is not in fact an invincible force

• The US already refuses to import Iranian oil: wait until the international community expresses its desire for US intervention

But we probablywon’t have to doanything…

Umm, Guys?

12

AFRICA: OUR NEW NATION BUILDING PROJECT

An unidentified tribal militia is difficult tocounter because its members can simplyput down their guns and hide amongpeaceful civilians

Army Special Forces doing what they do best,conducting foreign internal defense by the order of president Obama.

13

AFRICA

• October 12, 2011: President Obama sends ≈ 100 combat equipped U.S. troops to Africa to hunt down the leaders of the violent Lord's Resistance Army in and around Uganda

• American troops "will only be providing information, advice and assistance to partner nation forces”

• Rules of engagement authorize lethal force in self defense of in defense of United States personnel or critical equipment

• Expected to maintain a presence in country, “for a few months.” 

14

WORKS CONSULTED

BBC UK. “Iran Threatens to Block Strait of Hormuz.” December 28, 2011, Middle East edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.bbc.co.uk/ news/ world-middle-east-16344102.

CBS News. “Iran Arrests Suspect in Nuke Scientists Death.” January 15, 2012, International edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.cbsnews.com/ 8301-202_162-57359670/ iran-arrests-suspects-in-nuke-scientists-death/ .

CNN. “Iran Threatens Israel, US Over Scientist Killing.” January 15, 2012, International edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://articles.cnn.com/ 2012-01-15/ middleeast/ world_meast_iran-nuclear-scientist-killed_1_nuclear-scientist-iran-s-press-tv-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST.

CNN. “Iran Warns US over Carrier.” January 3, 2012, International edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://articles.cnn.com/ 2012-01-03/ middleeast/ world_meast_iran-u-s-_1_chabahar-iran-last-week-irna?_s=PM:MIDDLEEAST.

CNN. “Obama Orders Troops to Africa.” October 14, 2011, US edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://articles.cnn.com/ 2011-10-14/ africa/ world_africa_africa-obama-troops_1_obama-orders-south-sudan-central-african-republic?_s=PM:AFRICA.

10

11

13

WORKS CONSULTED

• Nakamura, David. “Obama Signs Defense Bill.” The Washington Post, December 31, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.washingtonpost.com/ politics/ obama-signs-defense-bill-pledges-to-maintain-legal-rights-of-terror-suspects/ 2011/ 12/ 31/ gIQATzbkSP_story.html.

•

• New York Times. “Obama Faces off with Iran.” January 15, 2012. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://ttp://www.nytimes.com/ 2012/ 01/ 17/ world/ middleeast/ faceoff-with-iran-complicates-obamas-re-election-campaign.html.

•

• RT. “Obama Sending US Troops to Africa.” October 14, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://rt.com/ usa/ news/ obama-kony-troops-africa-903/ .

•

• Strazioso, John. “US Troops to Africa.” The Huffington Post, October 14, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ 2011/ 10/ 27/ us-troops-in-africa_n_1035612.html.

•

• Youngman, Sam. “Obama Defends Libya Action.” The Hill, September 20, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://thehill.com/ homenews/ administration/ 182551-obama-defends-libya-action.

8

10

14

14

9

WORKS CONSULTED

CNN. “Obama Signs DAA into action.” December 31, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://articles.cnn.com/ 2011-12-31/ politics/ politics_obama-defense-bill_1_civilian-custody-legislators-military-custody?_s=PM:POLITICS.

Ellison, Keith. “US Role Made the Difference in Libya.” CNN, August 26, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2011. http://articles.cnn.com/ 2011-08-26/ opinion/ ellison.libya.obama_1_libyan-conflict-libyan-people-moammar-gadhafi?_s=PM:OPINION.

Fox News. “US Navy Training Dolphins.” January 15, 2012. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.foxnews.com/ us/ 2012/ 01/ 15/ us-navy-finds-dolphins-key-ally-in-strait-hormuz-showdown-with-iran/ .

Legum, Judd. “Obama Signs DAA .” Think Progress, December 31, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://thinkprogress.org/ security/ 2011/ 12/ 31/ 396018/ breaking-obama-signs-defense-authorization-bill/ ?mobile=nc.

8

9

8

WORKS CONSULTED

Daily Mail UK. “Afghanistan Power Point Slide.” April 28, 2010, US edition. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/ news/ article-1269463/ Afghanistan-PowerPoint-slide-Generals-left-baffled-PowerPoint-slide.html.

New York Times. “US Budget.” February 1, 2010, US edition. http://www.nytimes.com/ interactive/ 2010/ 02/ 01/ us/ budget.html.

US Budget: Fiscal Year 2011. United States Government, 2011. Accessed January 15, 2012. Last modified 2011. http://www.gpoaccess.gov/ usbudget/ fy11/ pdf/ budget.pdf.

“US Budget: Fiscal Year 2011 (Department of Defense).” White House Website. Accessed January 15, 2012. Last modified 2011. http://www.whitehouse.gov/ sites/ default/ files/ omb/ budget/ fy2012/ assets/ defense.pdf.

4

7

7

8

WORKS CONSULTED

• Barnett, Thomas. “The World According to Thomas Barnett.” Presentation at the Pentagon for the 2011 National Military Audience Brief, Washington, DC. Filmed October 2011.Posted October 16, 2011. Accessed January 9, 2012.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDVOP0lEECk&feature=related

• Barnett, Thomas. “Thomas Barnett draws a new world map for peace.” 2005 TED conference. Filmed February2005.Posted June, 2007.Accessed January 9, 2012.http://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_barnett_draws_a_new_map_for_peace.html

• Shakir, Faiz. “A Timeline of the Iraq War.” Think Progress Special Report. Original Publication March 17, 2006. Last updated January 12, 2012. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://thinkprogress.org/report/iraq-timeline/?mobile=nc

• NPR. “The Toll Of War.” Updated August 4, 2009. Accessed January 15, 2012. http://www.npr.org/news/specials/tollofwar/tollofwarmain.html

2

1

3

5+6