How Redundancies Increase Your Antifragility

August4,2014

AMan'sLife,PersonalDevelopment

TwoIsOneandOneIsNone:HowRedundanciesIncreaseYourAntifragility

“WitnessMr.HenryBemis,achartermemberinthefraternityofdreamers.Abookishlittlemanwhosepassionistheprintedpage,butwhoisconspiredagainstbyabankpresidentandawifeandaworldfulloftongue-cluckersandtheunrelentinghandsofaclock.Butinjustamoment,Mr.Bemiswillenteraworldwithoutbankpresidentsorwivesorclocksoranythingelse.He’llhaveaworldalltohimself…withoutanyone.”

Soopensthemostclassicepisodeofthatmostclassictelevisionseries,TheTwilightZone.In“TimeEnoughatLast,”wedropinonthestoryofoneHenryBemis,anavidbookwormwhoisstymiedateveryturninhisdesiretoread.Athome,hiswifesnatchesawayandhideshisnewspaperandmagazines.Inhisjobasabankteller,hetriestosneakinafewpagesofreadingasheservicescustomers–earninghimareprimandfromhissupervisor.Itseemshewillneverhaveenoughtimetoindulgehispassionforthewrittenword.

Hisonerespitecomesonhislunchhour,whenheretreatstothebank’sundergroundvaultwherehecanfinallyreadinpeace.Oneday,asheisenjoyingthisrarebitofsolitude,thevaultisrockedbyatremendousexplosion.WhenBemisemergesfromthewreckageofthebank,hefindsthattheworldhasbeendestroyedbyanatomicbomb.Healonehasbeenspared.

Whilethereisplentyoffoodtokeephimaliveforyears,contemplatingthelonelyemptinessofhisbleakfuturedrivesHenrytothebrinkofsuicide.Hefindsagun,raisesittohishead,andisabouttoenditallwhen…Aha!Hespiessalvation!Amidsttherubbleofthepubliclibrary,hefindspilesofbooksleftintact.Heisoverjoyedattheirdiscovery,andtheknowledgethatthereis“timeenoughatlast!”toreadthemtohisheart’scontent.

ButasBemisreachesdowntogrababook,hisreadingglassesslipoffandtheirthick,coke-bottlelensesshatterastheyhittheground.Hemournfullyfingersthenowuselessframes,knowinghewon’tbeabletoreadawordwithoutthem.“That’snotfair,”hesobsamongstthebooksthatwillremainforeverclosedtohim.“That’snotfairatall.Therewastimenow.TherewasallthetimeIneeded…!That’snotfair!”

Astheepisodecomestoanend,thenarratorintones:

“Thebestlaidplansofmiceandmen…andHenryBemis…thesmallmaninthe

glasseswhowantednothingbuttime.HenryBemis,nowjustapartofasmashedlandscape,justapieceoftherubble,justafragmentofwhatmanhasdeededtohimself.Mr.HenryBemis…intheTwilightZone.”

PoorMr.Bemis.Allheneededwasanextrapairofeyeglasses.Allheneededwasalittleredundancyinhislife.

TwoIsOneandOneisNone:HowRedundanciesIncreaseYourAntifragility

Theword“redundant”typicallyhasanegativeassociationinourculture.Itmeanssomethingthatisneedlesslyrepeated,andthussuperfluous.

Butinengineering,redundanciesareoftenintentionallybuiltintoasystem.Byduplicatingcriticalcomponents,ifonepiecefails,theothercanactasaback-upandkeepthemachinefunctioning.Thinkofthelivessavedbecauseairplaneshaveredundanteverything–sparkplugs,fuelpumps,evenengines(aircraftcanofteneasilyflywithjustoneworkingengine).

Thesekindsofredundanciesarealsobuiltintothehumanbody.AsphilosopherNassimTalebobserves,“Wehumanshavetwokidneys…extraspareparts,andextracapacityinmany,manythings(say,lungs,neuralsystem,arterialapparatus)…Layersofredundancyarethecentralriskmanagementpropertyofnaturalsystems.”

Talebarguesthatredundanciesaren’tjustusefulinhumanandtechnologicalmachines,butinmanyothersaspectsofourlivesaswell.Infact,intentionallycultivatingsomeredundancycanmakeusmoreantifragile.Aswediscussedinourpostonthisconceptlastyear,antifragilityisaqualitythatgoesbeyondmereresilience.Resilientpeoplemeetachallengeandbouncebacktowheretheywerebefore.Someonewhoisantifragile,ontheotherhand,isabletousesetbacksasaspringboardtoevengreaterstrength–likeaphoenixrisingfromtheflames.Whenthings,andpeople,arefallingapart,theantifragileareablenotjusttosurvive,butthrive.They’repositionedtoactually“gainfromdisorder.”

Howredundanciesincreaseourantifragilityisobvious:ifyouonlyhaveoneofsomething,anditfails,youcanbeupthecreekwithoutapaddle.MembersofthemilitaryhaveamaximthatneatlysumsupTaleb’sphilosophy:“Twoisoneandoneisnone.”Ifyoubringonepieceofgearonamission,it’sboundtobreak,andwhenitdoes,you’llfindyourselfinarealpinch.FarbettertohavenotonlyaPlanAandaPlanB,butaPlanA,B,andC.FormerNavySEALRichardJ.Machowiczcallstheintentionalcreationofstrategicredundancies“advantagestacking”–“youwanttostacksomanyoftheadvantagesinyourfavorthat,whentheordercomes,whentheopportunitypresentsitself,youcan’thelpbutwin.”

“Twoisoneandoneisnone”maysoundfatalistic,butit’salsorealistic;Murphy’sLawisfartoooftenineffect.OrasTalebputsit,“Redundancyisambiguousbecauseitseemslikeawasteifnothingunusualhappens.Exceptthatsomethingunusualhappens—usually.”

RedundanciesFosterAction

Whileweoftenthinkofredundanciesasconservativeandpreventive–akintoasecurity

blanket–theycanactuallypositionyoutobeproactive.Ifyou’reonamilitarymission,andknowyouhaveback-upsofyourkeypiecesofequipment,you’regoingtohavemorecourageandconfidenceandlessanxiety.Ifyou’reabusinessowner,andyouhaveabigslushfundofextracash,youcanmakebolderdecisions.Talebelaborates:

“Redundancyisn’tnecessarilywussy;itcanbeextremelyaggressive.Forinstance,ifyouhaveextrainventoryof,say,fertilizersinthewarehouse,justtobesafe,andtherehappenstobeashortagebecauseofdisruptionsinChina,youcanselltheexcessinventoryatahugepremium.Orifyouhaveextraoilreserves,youmaysellthematalargeprofitduringasqueeze.

Wesawthatredundancyisopportunistic,sosuchextrastrengthcanbeusedtosomebenefitevenintheabsenceofthehazard.TellthenextMBAanalystorbusinessschoolprofessoryourunintothatredundancyisnotdefensive;itismorelikeinvestmentthaninsurance.Andtellthemthatwhattheycall‘inefficient’isoftenveryefficient.”

Redundanciesaren’tjustaboutfortificationorentrenchment—theycanbeakeystimulusinspurringwhatlifeisallabout–takingaction.

ExamplesofRedundanciesThatCanStrengthenYourAntifragility

Beneficialredundanciescomeinawidevarietyofforms.Themostreadyexampleisthatoftangiblegear,especiallysuppliesforemergencysituations.Buttheycanalsotaketheformofskills,mentalpreparation,andrelationships,andbeequallyusefulinyoureverydaylife.

Herearejustafewexamplesofhowredundancies—bothbigandsmall—canhelpyouthrivewhenyourbest-laidplansgoawry:

72-hoursurvivalkit.Ifanaturalorman-madedisastercutoffyourwaterandelectricity,wouldyoubepreparedtoweatherthestorm?Whilesurvivalexpertsrecommendhavingseveralmonthstoayearofemergencyfood,water,andsuppliesonhand,asimple72-hourkitiseasytoassembleandstore,andwillseeyouthroughmostemergencies.

Extrapen/pencilduringimportantmeetingsandexams.You’reatanimportantmeetingwithaclient,pulloutanotepad,andareabouttogetthingsunderwaywhenyourealizeyourpenisoutofink.Askingtheclientifyoucanborrowonemakesyoulookunprepared,andyouhaven’tevengottengoingyet!

Alternativeformoftransportation.KateandIshareacar.Theotherdayshehadit,andIneededtogettothestorerightbeforeitclosed.IcouldhavemadeitonbikehadIownedone,andIcursednothavinga2-wheeledconveyance.Abicycleormotorcycle(orevenahorse,alaRickinTheWalkingDead)wouldcomeinhandyduringtheapocalypsetoo;whencarloadsofpeopletryingtogetthehelloutofdodgeclogthestreets,youcanslipthroughthedeadlock.

Sidehustle/valuablehobby.Veryfewjobsoffermuchsecuritythesedays.Youcouldbegiventhebootwithoutwarning,andthenwhat?Ifyou’vebeencultivatingasidehustleallalong,you’llalreadyhaveaback-upincomesourceinplace,andyoucaneitherliveonthatuntilyoufindanotherfull-timejob,ortrytoexpanditintoafull-fledgedbusiness.Ifyoudon’thaveasidebizoutsideyour9-5,considerdevelopingapotentiallyvaluablehobby.Maybeyoudowoodworkingasapastimerightnow–ifyourcorporategigfallsthrough,youmightbeabletopivotintomakingfurniturefull-time.

Alibraryofphysicalbooks.Therehasneverbeensomuchinformationatourfingertips…andithasneverbeensofragile!HenryBemiscouldn’treadtheworld’sremainingbooksbecausehisglassesbroke;wemightnothavetheprivilegeofhavingphysicalbooksonhand,period!Ifyourwholelibraryisstoredonvariousdevices,andthattechnologyfails,orevensimplychanges,youwon’tbeabletoaccessit.That’spartofthereasonIbuyaphysicalcopyofallmyfavoritebooks.I’llnevercursethefactthatIneedsomeunavailable

widgettostartreadingthem–Icansimplyopenthecoveranddivein.

Memorizedknowledgeandskills.Ifphysicalbooksareaback-uptodigitalcopies,memorizedknowledgeisaback-uptoyourbooks.HavingsomethinglikeasurvivalKindletofillinthegapsisagreatidea,butstrivetomemorizeasmuchpracticalandlife-savinginformationasyoucan.Doyouknowhowmanycupsareinagallonwithoutgooglingit?(Theansweris16.)Todownloadhandyinfointoyourbrain,practiceyouremergencyskillsonaregularbasisandalwayshaveacopyoftheclassicPocketReftothumbthroughwhileonthejohn.

Writtennotes.It’sgreattomemorizetheideasofothers,butwhatshouldwedowhenwecomeupwithoneofourown?Weoftenthinkofto-dosandgreatideas,andthenrelyonourmemorytocaptureandpreservethem.Laterwebemoanourinabilitytoretrievethethoughtweweresurewewouldn’tforget.Buttressthefragilityofyourideasbywritingthemdowninapocketnotebook.

Multiplepreparedanswerstomultiplequestionsandobjectionsthatcouldberaisedduringabusinessintervieworpitch.Beforeyouinterviewforajobyoushouldhavealreadypreparedinyourmindanswerstoasmanyquestionsaspossible,aswellasmultiplequestionstoasktheinterviewerinturn(incasesomeofthequestionsyouplannedonaskingareansweredduringthecourseoftheinterview).Similarly,beforeyoumakeabusinesspitch,youshouldknowexactlyhowyou’llansweravarietyofobjections,andnotonlythat,whatyou’llthensayifthoseanswersdon’tinitiallysatisfythem.

Emergencyfund.Kidsendupintheemergencyroom;yourcargoeskaputinthemiddleofNewMexico;youunexpectedlygetlaidofffromyourjob.We’veallexperiencedthesesetbacksandtheiraccompanyingbills.Manypeopledon’tplanforemergenciesintheirmonthlybudget,sowhenthepoophitsthefan,they’reforcedtotakeonexpensivecreditcarddebt.Anemergencyfundisinsuranceforyouandyourfamily–anantifragilitymustforeveryman.

Alternativeformofcurrency.Ifthepoopreallydidhitthefan,ourregularcurrencywouldbecomeworthless.That’swhyitcanbeagoodideatohaveanalternativeformonhand—somegoldperhaps,orthatuniversalmediumofexchange,cartonsofcigarettes.

Earningadoublemajorincollege.Itoftendoesn’ttakeatremendousamountofextraeffortandtimetoearntwomajorsincollegeinsteadofone.Notonlydoesitallowyoutopursuetwodifferentinterests,but,ifyoucan’tfindajobrelatedtothefirstmajorafteryougraduate,youhavetheoptiontopivottowardssomethingrelatedtothesecond.

Analogwatch.Manymenhavegivenuponwearingwatches,astheyusetheirsmartphonetocheckthetime.Butaphonebatterycandie,torpedoingyourpunctuality.Plus,ananalogwatchcandoubleasacompass,shouldyoubecomelostinthewoods.

Back-uptoyourhard-drive.Nooneknowswhentheircomputerwillgocompletelykaput–orbestolen.Whenitdoes,sometimesyourfilescannotberecovered.Youcanloseyourlife’swork,nottomentionallyourphotosandmusic.Everyoneshoulduseadevicethatbacksuptheircomputer’sharddrivewithouttheirevenhavingtothinkaboutit.

Mentaladvantages.Machowicz(theformerSEAL)arguesthatinpreparingforanymission,whetherinmilitaryorcivilianlife,youneedtostacknotonlyyouradvantagesinthingslikeskillsandequipment,butalsointheintangibleslikeoptimizingone’sattitude,timing,anddesire,aswellasdoingexerciseslikevisualizingyourplanbeforehand.Themorementaladvantagesyoucultivateforyourselfgoingintosomething,thebetteryourchancesofcomingoutthevictor.

Alargenetworkofacquaintancesandcoregroupofgoodfriends.Machowiczalsomentionsanothercrucialadvantagetosuccess:alliances.Havingasolidnetworkofrelationshipscanhelpusthriveprofessionally,especiallyduringrockytimeswhenourbusinesscratersorwefindourselvesoutofwork.Andwhenitcomestoyourpersonalfriendships,youcanneverhavetoomany“redundancies.”It’sgreattohaveonebestfriendyou’reincrediblycloseto,butwhatwillyoudoif/whenhemovesaway?Somemendon’tevenhavethat–theytrytogothroughlifeentirelyontheirown.Whenhardtimescome,theseisolatedlonerscrumplewithoutneededsupport.

Asignificantothercanbeagreatassetinourlives,butisn’tenougheither:weallknowtheguywhoignoreshisfriendswhenhe’sfallenforsomegirl;thenwhentheybreakup,he’ssorelymissinghisoldbuddies.Havinganintenseromanticrelationshipisnoreplacementforagroupofloyalfriends.Remember,twoisoneandoneisnone.

BalancingMinimalismandAntifragileRedundancies

Someredundanciesdon’ttakeupanyroomatall–youcancramanearlyinfiniteamountofknowledgeintoyourcranium,andthere’snothingmoreantifragilethantruecommunity.

Butsomeredundanciesaretangiblegoods–thingsyouhavetobuy,store,andpotentiallytakecareof.Thustherecanbesometensionforamanwhowantstocreatesomeredundanciesinhislifebutwhoalsowantstoembracethephilosophyofminimalism.

Aswediscussedlastweek,therearesomepotentialproblemswithaverystrictminimalistlifestyle,andtothoseissues,I’dliketoraiseanother:itmakesyouveryfragile.Ifyouonlyhaveoneofeverythingandthatthingbreaks,youcanfindyourselfinarealpickle.Moneycanoftenbeahedgeagainstthis;ifyouhaveanamplebankaccount,youcansimplybuyareplacement.Butinanemergency,one’smoneymightbecomeworthless,leavingthestrictminimalistwithoutmuchinthewayofresources.(There’sareasonmanyfolkswholivedthroughtheGreatDepressionbecamepackratslaterinlife.)

Ontheotherhand,avidconsumersarequitefragiletoo.Ifsomeoneisahoarder,theirheapsofpossessionswillpreventtheirmobilityandefficiencyinaction;ifyou’vegotafirst

aidkitsomewhere,butit’sburiedunderboxesandboxesofstuff,it’soflittleuse.EvenifsomeoneisnotahoarderofTLCproportions,theirundisciplinedspendinghabitscanleadtodebt,anddebtishighlyfragile.

Thankfullythereisawaytonavigatebetweentheseextremes,anditispossibletobeamoderateminimalistwhoispassionateaboutbothlivingsimplyandbeingantifragile.Thekeyistochooseone’sredundanciescarefullyandstrategically.

AperfectexampleofthefeasibilityofthispathismyfriendJeffMore,whowritesoveratITSTactical.Jeffisanavidoutdoorsmanwholovestohike,climb,camp,andrecreationallyshoot.He’salsointoself-sufficiencyandemergencypreparedness.Allofthesepursuitsrequireafairamountofequipmentandsupplies,andyetJefflivesina180-squarefootapartmentinLosAngeles.Howdoeshebalancehis“small”lifeandgear-heavyinterests?

InagreatarticleonITS,Jeffshareshismethods.First,whenitcomestohisoutdoorsgear,hetreatshiscampingtripsasexperimentsinwhethersomethingshouldstayorgo,andwhetherupgradesarejustified:

“MychecklistspreadsheethascolumnsforDateLastPacked/Inspected,Category(basedontheTenEssentialsforeasysorting),Item,Description,WeightandifsomethingwasUnusedonmylasttrip.

Ifthere’ssomethingonthelistthatgetsbroken,lostorIsimplywantanewer,lighterandshinierversionofit,ImakeanoteinthespreadsheetandaddittomyAmazonWishlist.Iwaitarounduntilthe15thofeverymonth(whenthepaycheckthat’snotusedforrentcomesin)beforepullingthetrigger.Moreoftenthannot,afteraweekorthreeofsittinginmywishlist,IcooloffabitanddecideIdon’treally‘need’itafterall.MygearpurchaseshavedecreasedsomewhatsinceI’veimplementedthissystem.

Thelastcolumnisanindicatorthatsomethingishabituallyunusedandshouldbepurgedinthenextroundofdecluttering.”

Jeffalsocreatedagreatback-of-the-napkinflowchartthathelpshimmakedecisionsaboutkeepingorpurgingtheotherthingsheowns:

Whenitcomestobalancingthedesiretobeaminimalistandtobeprepared,Jeffrecommendslettingyourcampingbackpackdoubleasabug-outbag,andstockingup“horizontally”insteadof“vertically.”Thatis,insteadofspendingyourmoneyonsuperfluousduplicatesofgearyoualreadyhave,investin“consumables”likeemergencywater,batteries,dehydratedfood,ammo,andfirstaidsupplies.Anamplesupplyofsuchthingspreparesyouforagrid-downscenario,butyoucanalsouseandcyclethroughthesethingswhilecampingandinyoureverydaylifeifsuchadisasterneverarrives.

CultivateYourRedundanciesWiselyandStrategically

Ithinkwecanallagreethatnobodyneedstwo(orevenone)promotionalbobbleheadsorDVDsofGigli.Andmanywillprobablyagreethatamandoesneedmorethanoneflashlightandknife.Butexactlywhereyoudrawthelinebetweenminimalismandstrategicredundancieswilldifferfrompersontopersonandtheiruniquecircumstances,includingthesizeoftheirbankaccount,thesizeoftheirlivingquarters,theirenvironment,andtheirpersonalconvictions.What’s“usefulandrad”tooneguyisunnecessarytoanother,andthere’snoone-size-fits-allguideline.Asyoudecidewhichredundanciestocreate/keep,andwhichtoforgo,weighyourdecisionsthoughtfully,byaskingquestionssuchas:

Whatisthecosttopurchase?

Whatistheopportunitycostofowning/keepingthisitem?Bystoringonething,youwon’thaveroomforanother.Whatistheopportunitycostofcaringforthisitem,orinvestinginthispursuit?Byspendingyourtimeononething,you’llhavelesstimeforothers.Willthisitemhinderorhelpmeinfeelingconfidentandtakingaction?Couldbuyingthisitemturnouttobeaninvestmentinsomeway?Whatisthepotentialcostofneedingitandnothavingit,versushavingitandnotneedingit?Willbuying/keepingthisitem,orinvestingmytimeinXpursuit,makememoreorlessantifragile?

Therearemanyredundancieswhichrequireverylittleinvestmentineithertime,money,orstoragespace,andyethavethepotentialtocreateahugeROIinyourlife.Someareevenfree;ifyou’restrappedforresourcesoneveryfront,startwiththose.

Conclusion:BeaBullMoose,NotaBemis

Strategicredundanciesarenotfortheweakandfearful,butratherforthosewhowishtothrive,andnotjustsurvive,whenfacedwithchallengesthatrangefromsurvivalscenariostofinancialsetbacks.Whencultivatedwithmoderationandmindfulness,theyensureamanwillbeabletotakeactionintimesofchaosanddisorderandcomeoutthevictor.

TheodoreRooseveltunderstoodthis.Becausehecouldn’tseeverywellatallwithouthisglasses,hecarriedwithhim12(!)extrasteel-rimmedpairswhenhedeployedtotheSpanish-AmericanWar.Hestashedtheseback-upglassesinvariousplacesonhispersonandinhisequipment,sothatnosingleaccidentwoulddestroythemall.Afewheputinhissaddlebags,andseveralweresewnintohisshirt,belt,pants,andeventheliningofhishat.

Overkill?Perhaps.ButTRdidnotwanttomissoutonthechancetofinallyfulfillhislife’sgoaloftestinghismettleinbattle.Hehad“timeenough”andtherighttools,sothatashechargedupSanJuanHill,itwaswithaclearvisionofthefightbeforehim.

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