How New Trends Are Reversing Old Assumptions Based on the Past Dowell Myers USC Sol Price School of Public Policy Preparing for California’s New Generational.

How New Trends Are Reversing Old Assumptions Based on the Past

Dowell Myers

USC Sol Price School of Public Policy

Preparing for California’s New Generational Future

The Intergenerational Partnership

Source: Dowell Myers,Immigrants and Boomers

Dowell Myers, USC Price

Demographic Assumptions

are Core to Public Beliefs about Services and Taxation

andPriorities for California Policy

Are the Old Assumptions an Accurate Guide for the

Future?


Reversal of Outlooks

1990 OutlookGrowth booming out

of control Runaway immigration

High fertility, too many kids

Growth coming from outside foreign lands and other states

2010 and beyond

Slow steady increase

Diminished immigration, even during good economy

Reduced fertility, and a shortage of children

Growth from native Californians: homegrown

Four Revolutions

Much Slower Population Growth

Immigration Turnaround: Foreign Born Peaked or

Declining

Generation Transformation: Declining Number of ChildrenA Soaring Senior Ratio

Homegrown Revolution:New Importance of Investing in

Children

Slower Population Growth

Observed and Expected Population GrowthIn California Each Decade from 1950-2050

Dowell Myers, USC PriceSource: US Census Bureau, CA Department of Finance, Pitkin-Myers

2012 CA Generational Projections

1950-60

1960-70

1970-80

1980-90

1990-00

2000-10

2010-20

2020-30

2030-40

2040-50

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Census DOF-07 DOF 13 Pitkin-Myers CDF 12

Total Population of CaliforniaHow Much Will Growth Resurge?

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20600

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

DOF-07

DOF-13

Pitkin-Myers CDF 12

Census

Pitkin-Myers CDF 12

Source: US Census Bureau, CA Department of Finance, Pitkin-Myers CA Generational Projections 2012

What Year Does CaliforniaReach 50 Million Population?

• Old Expectation = 2032

• New Outlook = 2049

Source: California Department of Finance, 2007 and 2013

Observed and Expected Population GrowthIn Orange County Each Decade from 1950-2050


1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30 2030-40 2040-500.0

100,000.0

200,000.0

300,000.0

400,000.0

500,000.0

600,000.0

700,000.0

800,000.0

Census DOF-07 DOF-13

Total Population of Orange CountyHow Much Will Growth Resurge?


1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

4,000,000.0

4,500,000.0

Census

DOF-07

DOF-13

What Year Does Orange CountyReach 3.3 Million Population?

• Old Expectation = 2012

• New Outlook = 2032

Source: California Department of Finance, 2007 and 2013


U.S. Population Growth by Age GroupLast 20 Years and Next 20 Years

Source: Decennial Census and 2012 Census Bureau projections


Growth in Age Groups in Orange County

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

-50

0

50

100

150

1990 - 2010

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

-60

-20

20

60

100

2010 - 2030

Th

ou

sa

nd

s


Immigration Turnaround

Annual Immigrant ArrivalsPercentage Change in Net Flow Since 1970

Source: U.S. Census 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000; American Community Survey 2006, 2010


1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

50

100

150

200

250

300

Los Angeles County

California

U.S.

Pitkin-Myers CDF 12

Foreign Born Share of The PopulationLeveling Off

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

United States

California

Los Angeles

Pitkin-Myers CDF 12

Source: US Census Bureau, Pitkin Myers Generational Projections for LA, CA, and US

Longer Settled Immigrant Share RisesShare of All CA Foreign-born ResidentsBy Length of Time in U.S. in Years

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

30+

20-29

10-19

LT 10

Pitkin-Myers CDF 12

Source: US Census PUMS, American Community Survey, Pitkin Myers 2012 CA Generational Projections

Demographic Projection Content

Conventional Pitkin-Myers ModelAge

Gender

Race or Hispanic

Origin

Age

Gender

Race or Hispanic Origin

Native or Foreign Born

Year of Entry of Foreign

Born

Generation of Native

Born

California vs. Other Birth

State




1990 Outlook

A revolution in outlook on immigration

Accelerated immigration

Most immigrants are recentarrivals

Immigrant share soaring and assumed unlimited

Diminished immigration, even during good economy

Most are long-settledarrivals & older

Immigrant share constant and stable for the future

2010 and Beyond

Generation Transformation

Declining Numbers of Children

Surging Numbers of Retirees

What is the Political Relation?

Annual BirthsNo longer on an Upswing after 1990

Orange County California

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...

_x00

0...0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

Source: California Department of Finance Dowell Myers, USC Price

1000’s

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000 1000’s

Sierra

Plumas

San Benito

Tuolumne

Mariposa

Nevada

Amador

Alameda

Modoc

San Diego

-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0

Percentage Losses or Gains

Losses of Children Under Age 10Among Counties with Losses Greater than the State Average2000 to 2010


Losses of Children Under Age 10Among Counties of Southern California2000 to 2010


Los Angeles

Orange

Ventura

San Diego

CALIFORNIA

Santa Barbara

San Bernardino

Imperial

Riverside

-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0

Percentage Losses or Gains

Growth in Age Groups in Orange County

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

-50

0

50

100

150

1990 - 2010

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

-60-40-20020406080100

2010 - 2030

Th

ou

sa

nd

s


Senior Ratio Soars

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203010

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

CaliforniaLos AngelesOrangeSan BernardinoSan DiegoRiverside

Seniors (65+) per 100 Working Age (25-64)


Senior Ratio Soars

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203010

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

California

Orange

Seniors (65+) per 100 Working Age (25-64)


Some say there is a

conflict of Old vs. Young

But others showa Partnershipwith mutual

benefits

Working togetherto solve

our biggest problems




1990 OutlookHigh fertility

Too many childrenA growing tax burden

Very few elderly

2010 and beyondReduced fertility, even during good economy

A shortage of children; Not enough taxpayers and workers for the future

Baby Boomer tsunamicreates soaring senior ratioA revolution in outlook on the

generations Dowell Myers, USC Price


The Homegrown Revolution

in California

Source: Author’s analysis of U.S. Census 1980-2000 and American Community Survey 2005-2008 data

Rise of a Homegrown Majority

Birthplace of Young Compared to OldCA Residents By Age and Birthplace, 2030

>10 10-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85 +0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

California Born

Foreign Born

Other US Born

Pitkin-Myers CDF 2012

Source: Pitkin-Myers 2012 CA Generational Projections Dowell Myers, USC Price

Children’s Index of Critical Importance (iCi)

• Assigned at birth, the iCi is based on the increase in the senior ratio expected at the time the child reaches age 25 (number of seniors per 100 working age).

• With growth in seniors, today’s children assume critical importance because of the added economic and social weight to be carried by the children when grown.

• A child born in 2010 in California is fully twice as important (index of 2.02) as a child who was born in 1985 (index of 1.00).


Surging Importance of Children

Source: Dowell Myers analysis of US Census and DOF 2013 California projections


0.00

0.40

0.80

1.20

1.60

2.00

2.40

iCi Children's Index of Critical

Importance

OrangeCali-fornia

Year of Birth

1990 OutlookGrowth coming from outside: immigrants and from inter-state

Growth is excess, too costly and unwanted

Neglect and under-investment in skill development of children

2010 and beyondGrowth from native Californians: homegrown

Too little growth to meet the needs of the economy and generational support

Children deserve nurturing for maximum productivity and future prosperity of the state

A revolution in outlook on the homegrown Dowell Myers, USC Price


Old Folks Need the Young to Make It

Dowell Myers, “Housing market links older whites, young Latinos,” Sacramento Bee, July 31, 2011


© Tim Brinton, 2011




Conclusions• What is the most surprising

finding about the new generational future of California?

Is it the leveling off of the foreign born?

Is it the new majority of the homegrown?

Could it be the explosion of seniors?

Or is it the scarcity of children and their doubled

importance?• Maybe it’s the realization that the

generations might really be connected after all


Thank you

More Information on

Generational projectionsCalifornia futures

Visit USC PopDynamics

[email protected]


Publications Referenced in this PresentationMyers, Dowell, “California Futures: New Narratives for a Changing Society,” Boom: A Journal of California, July 2012.

Pitkin, John and Dowel Myers, “Generational Projections of the California Population: By Nativity and Year of Immigrant Arrival,” USC Population Dynamics Research Group, April 2012.

Myers, Dowell, “California's Diminishing Resource: Children,” Lucile Packard Foundation for Children’s Health, January 2013.

Myers, Dowell, “Benefits for California and Its Growing Number of Seniors of Expanded Youth Access to Higher Education,” written testimony before the Joint Committee on the Master Plan for Higher Education, California State Legislature, February 2, 2010.

Myers, Dowell, John Pitkin, and Ricardo Ramirez, “The New Homegrown Majority in California: Recognizing the New Reality of Growing Commitment to the Golden State,” Special Report, USC Population Dynamics Research Group, April 2009.

Myers, Dowell and SungHo Ryu, “Aging Baby Boomers and the Generational Housing Bubble: Foresight and Mitigation of an Epic Transition,” Journal of the American Planning Association 74, 1 (Winter 2008): 17-33. (Winner of 2008 Award for Best Article in the Journal.)

Myers, Dowell, Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2007.

NOTE: most publications are available at http://www.usc.edu/schools/price/research/popdynamics/

How New Trends Are Reversing Old Assumptions Based on the Past Dowell Myers USC Sol Price School of Public Policy Preparing for California’s New Generational.

Documents

usc price slide

us slide

homegrown slide

slower population growth

usc price source

boomers dowell myers

orange county dowell

immigration turnaround