How much biomass can Europe use without harming the environment? Results of EEA Studies

How much biomass can Europe use without harming the

environment?Results of EEA Studies

Uwe R. FritscheCoordinator, Energy & Climate Division

Öko-Institut (Institut for applied ecology), Darmstadt Office

Work sponsored by

presented at the Expert Meeting on Biodiversity Standards and Strategies for sustainable cultivation of Biomass for non-food

Purposes, Isle of Vilm, March 13-15, 2008

Partners & Objectives

• Öko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology, DE)

• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)

• European Forest Institute (EFI, FI)

• AEA-Technology (AEAT, UK)

• Wageningen University & Research, Alterra (NL)

+ subcontracts for CEE countries (forest potentials)

+ workshop partners Mediterranean (JRC, ES, GR, IT)

Determine EU domestic bioenergy potential that causes- no additional pressure on farmland, forest biodiversity and

soil/water resources- respects other environmental objectives (organic farming, waste

minimization, climate targets)

EU Biomass in Perspective

Biomass

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

4001

990

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

201

0

202

0

203

0

Mill

ion

TO

E

Biomass use today approx. 60 MtOE

EU renewables target 12% in 2010:

130 MtOE biomass

EU renewable target 20% in 2020:

210–250 MtOE biomass

incl. biofuels target 10% in 2020

Sustainable EU Biomass

• agricultural area: 30% for ‘environmentally orientated’ farming in 2030

• set-aside 3 % of intensively used farmland for nature conservation (“ecological stepping stones”)

• no grassland conversion to intensive agriculture (cross-compliance, soil carbon, biodiversity)

• no conversion of other land to UAA

• no forest residues from critical sites

• straw use only if soil is protected

Use sub-regional differentiation (NUTS-2 level)

Food and fodder production

UAAYield increase

CAP reform

Environmen-tal frame

Bioenergy Crop production

Grassland

Competition effectbetween energy and food market

Increase of commodity prices relative to 2000Crop 2010 2020 2030rapeseed oil 110% 121% 200%Sugar 115% 127% 200%round wood 115% 132% 152%Wheat, maize 113% 125% 138%

Land Potential: Principles

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2020 2030

Ava

ilab

e la

nd

are

a, M

io h

a.

Permanent grassand olive groves

EU-15 CO2 permitprice effect DE, Fr

EU-15 due toliberalisation

EU-10

Agricultural Land Potential

Allocation of Crops to Land

Available technologies

gentle shift in crop mix

environmental ranking

Yield(PJ)

by zone& crop

BIOENERGY POTENTIAL

(lower heating value of

biomass)

Sust.CropMix

by MS

Land

Available technologies

gentle shift in crop mix

environmental ranking

Yield(PJ)

by zone& crop

BIOENERGY POTENTIAL

(lower heating value of

biomass)

Sust.CropMix

by MS

Land

• Differentiate between environmental zones

• Determine environmental impact of bioenergy crops

• Introduce mix of bioenergy crops (maintain crop/ landscape diversity)

– erosion– soil compaction– nutrient inputs

groundwater– nutrient inputs in

surface water– pesticide pollution

of soils and water– water abstraction– "increased fire risk"– diversity of crop types

Which crops are best to grow where?

Agricultural biomass

EEA Sustainable Crop Mix

sustainable cropmix for each environmental zone

Risk matrix for each crop

Information about environmental zone crop information

Descriptionof zones

GermanStudy

Environmentalproblems by

zone

IRENA EEAbiofuels

Environmentaleffects caused

by crop

reports

Expertknowledge

Crop suitibilityby zone

Statistics:FAO, IENICA, …

reports

EEA biofuels

Germanstudy

sustainable cropmix for each environmental zone

Risk matrix for each crop

Information about environmental zone crop information

Descriptionof zones

GermanStudy

Environmentalproblems by

zone

IRENA EEAbiofuelsGerman

Study

Environmentalproblems by

zone

IRENA EEAbiofuels

Environmentalproblems by

zone

IRENA EEAbiofuels

Environmentaleffects caused

by crop

reports

Expertknowledge

Environmentaleffects caused

by crop

reports

Expertknowledge

Crop suitibilityby zone

Statistics:FAO, IENICA, …

reports

EEA biofuels

Germanstudy

Crop suitibilityby zone

Statistics:FAO, IENICA, …

reports

EEA biofuels

Germanstudy

EU Bio-Potential: Crops

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2020 2030

Pri

ma

ry b

ioe

ne

rgy

po

ten

tia

l, M

toe

SRC+per. gras

plants for biogas

plants forethanol+

cereals forethanol

oil plants

• roots and foliage remain in the forest

• sustainable nutrient balance • soil type• base saturation

• soil erosion • steepness• elevation

• soil compaction• peat land• soil water regime

• No intensification on protected areas (intrinsic)

Sustainable Forest Residues

Total Bio-Potential EU-25

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2020 2030

Pri

mar

y b

iom

ass

po

ten

tial

, Mto

e

Additionalagriculturalpotential(DE, FR)

Additionalforestpotential

Agriculture

Forestry

Waste

Effect of increasing

energy & carbon

prices

Sustainable Bioenergy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2020 2030

Prim

ary

po

ten

tial,

Mto

e

sweet sorghum

switch-grass

giant reed

reed canary grass

miscan-thus

SRC willow

SRC poplar

2-culture red.

2-culture opt.

wheat whole plant

triticale whole plant

maize whole plant

barley/ triticale corn

wheat corn

maize corn

sunflower seeds

rape seeds

Potential from agriculture by cropPotential from agriculture by crop

BioenergyEnviron-mental

resources

Costs &Employment

Greenhousegas

reduction

Supplysecurity

How to use potential?

Replace as much imported fuel as possible

t CO2 avoided

per hectare?

t CO2 avoided

per Dollar?

synergieswith natureprotection

crop mix respects

soil, water

land use

change

Maximize CO2 savings

“least cost” mix: 13.3% bio-electricity 16.5% bio-heat 5.6% bio-fuels

Approx. 15 % of EU prim. energy in 2030 could be from biomass

6.9%

11.0%13.3%

3.6%

8.6%

16.5%

0.6%3.5%

5.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Bio

ener

gy

- as

sh

are

of

gro

ss s

ecto

ral

dem

and

s (e

le v

s. h

eat.

vs.

tra

nsp

ort

)[%

]

electricity

heat

transport

Sustainable Bioenergy

Further Policy and Research

• Development and implementation of sustainability standards

• Energy policy to develop framework conditions for environmentally-friendly bioenergy systems

• Climate changes complicates the picture - affects ability to make assumptions about the future

• Scale of production:– smaller scale easier to come up with solutions

tailored to local agri-environmental conditions

• Crop rotation and diversification important factors• Need more research on Life Cycle Assessment of

bioenergy crops + bioenergy pathways

More Information: EU

[email protected]

[email protected]

www.eea.europa.eu