How do you envision the city of the future?

Before we start, we need to answer 2 simple questions:

The questionsWhy can`t we continue living in the city of today?

Why does a vision of the city of the future needs to be created at all?

Image source: Google

The most obvious answer is scarily simple: modern model of the city is completely unsustainable as typical city is a combination of:

• a huge and irrational user of the resources;• a place often too stressful for the people living in it;• damaging the environment for miles around with uncontrolled growth;• traffic jams and pollution completing the picture.

At the same time, according to WHO, more than half of our planet`s population already lives in urban areas (up from 34% just 50 years ago)* and we have to cope with the challenge of finally giving our cities a human touch and making them sustainable. I believe this is certainly possible and will try to give my thinking on the issues and challenges any modern city faces, the changes we are very likely to see very soon and possible solutions to cities problems.

Image source: Google

The challenge

* http://www.who.int/gho/urban_health/situation_trends/urban_population_growth_text/en/

The following slides are a presentation of my vision of the 5 major elements of the city of the future and 5 driving forces between each of them. For this reason, I call it „Vision 5x5“.

I think it`s more important to answer the question „why?“ rather than „when?“, „what?“ or „how?“. Because of that, it is not an architectural or design vision, but rather a summary of the trends which will guide our thinking behind not only design or architecture, but many other things in order to adapt our cities and ourselves to the new realities.

Transport and logistics Quality of life Economy and business

Health and safety Ecology and energy

„Vision 5x5“ covers the following 5 elements of the city of the future:

Modern system of personal transport is unsustainable. If we will continue to use the resources for the production of vehicles used to drive around 23 miles per day only* and meaninglessly occupying space in the city for the rest of time, then we`ll run out of not only fossil energy sources, but also metals that could be used for much more important things. Personally I don`t believe in electric personal vehicles either as accumulators technology still needing improvements and their production, collection and re-usage still a major environmental issue. We also often forget that in so many markets the main source of electricity still is fossil fuel** with the only difference that it`s being burnt somewhere out of the city.

The only solution which is already becoming a standard is a sharing principle – a good example being city bike rental schemes. I am working for the scheme in Vilnius and am very proud of the fact that the average „Cyclocity“ bike is being used by 9 people during 1 day. We also have one of the pioneering car sharing schemes in Vilnius, called „CityBee“, which offers 115 cars in 75 points across the city. If we would apply average bike sharing index of 9, this means that thanks to „Citybee“ we have up to 820 less cars occupying city space.

I definitely believe in personal transport becoming obsolete. What we will have in he city of the future is flexible public transport and more expensive option in the form of vehicles ready to be driven when needed.

* http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf , page 56

** http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/electric-car-global-warming-emissions-report.pdf, page 3 Image source: Cyclocity

Modern roads are heavily occupied by personal vehicles – in Moscow there are 34 cars per hectare of land (compared to 18 cars in New York*). Once sharing technologies will be massively introduced and will reach the indicators similar to the ones we see for bicycles (1 vehicle used by 9 people per day), we could see a decrease of cars per hectare index from 34 to 4, which would beincredible medium-term result.

Remaining problem would be peak hours, but as we will see in further slides, I expect this issue to become much less important due to the virtualisation of our economy and communications. We will have less reasons to travel to work, universities or grocery shops. This should further ease the pressure on our road networks in the medium term.

In the long term I foresee the road networks and huge roundabouts to be used by the cities as green areas, ideally suitable for walking, jogging or new buildings construction as the road networks as we know them today will gradually cease existing. A very good example of a former highway converted into the green area (known now as High Line Park, New York), seen above. To me this is a first sign of what we are about to encounter in many cities worldwide.

* http://www.russiasupplychain.com/over-expectation-russias-infrastructure-make-car-manufacturers-goals-unachievable/ Images source: Google.

I believe not only in the makeover of our road networks, but in further 3D growth of our cities – both upwards and below the surface. Metro systems, introduced just over 120 years ago, are a very good example of new space creation inside the cities (though they were created to solve the problem of traffic on the surface).

Car parking areas built below the land surface are a norm for most of the cities. However, with personal vehicles becoming less important, I foresee a gradual conversion of these areas into the cafes, night clubs and cinemas (ideal for their sound isolation) and other entertainment and community areas.

Despite the growth in city population, I doubt the need to build more skyscrapers (at least in the same form as they look today) as they are energetically poor buildings* requiring a lot of maintenance. With the conversion of office buildings into living areas the iconic ones will become luxury residences, the rest will be used as cheap and not very comfortable apartment houses. I believe that they will gradually disappear and more balanced living-, entertainment- and green areas combinations will be built instead. There simply will be no reason to travel to the central offices of let`s say a major bank anymore.

*http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113942/bank-america-tower-and-leed-ratings-racket Image source: Google.

I foresee a gradual decline in the classic mass transit as the collection of transit data and total surveillance of our movements (discussed further) will lead to the appearance of fluid transport on demand – a new generation of public transport, whose destinations and directions will be guided by the demand, not by the schedule. This will lead to even higher efficiency and occupancy.

Imagine „Google“ driven cars which are collecting the orders from the people in the area and offering them to share a car / minitrain / airplane or any other vehicle which will automatically take these people to their matching destination, perhaps picking up another person while on the route. Empty buses running on city streets because of the schedule telling them to do so, will disappear and mini cabs will be sent to pick up those several people waiting for that particular bus instead - saving time, money and fuel. The choice of carrying vehicle will be up to the system.

People will automatically „check in“ at public transport stops and indicate their destination to the system. The major change is that the system will adapt itself to where and when we want to go, not us adapting to the schedules and routes mass transport system currently offers us.

Images source: Google. Dreamstime

Further trend for the city, linked to the fact that road networks will be reduced, could be called „reverted explosion“ – since city centres will become less polluted, we will see more people moving back from the suburbs.

The virtualisation of our economies will also make many factory, office and even universities buildings less important – so there will definitely be a process of conversion of these areas into living ones. I expect an abundance of former offices on offer as loft apartments in the medium term and total conversion of the whole areas back into living spaces.

It is also a great opportunity for us to try to reintroduce the nature back into the central areas of our cities as newly available space could be used to create parks and nature reservates. In some cases mistakes which were done during the urbanisation could be fixed – for example, sports or community centres could be built in areas where currently there is no space for them. This will make even more people reconsider moving back to currently unattractive areas of the cities.

As we see in the chart above, the process has already started – example shows that there are more people moving back to Washington DC core from the suburbs than the other way around (above)*.

* http://www.citylab.com/design/2011/11/so-are-people-moving-back-city-or-not/487/

One of the major trends will be the fact that we will accept almost universal surveillance with the help of wearables and the internet of things. There already is 1 surveillance camera per 11 people in the UK, as study shows*. With terrorism threat unfortunately not disappearing any time soon and the number of people living in the cities only increasing, I think it`s only a matter of time until cities will start introducing total tracking of the people for the sake of their own security with technology allowing to identify any person.

We will eventually trade part of our own freedom for the sake of safety and what is now a source of hot debate, will soon be accepted as the only solution - all inhabitants, newcomers and tourists in the city will be required to wear a certain ID element which will make their movement trackable.

In part, this will produce numerous positive effects – we will have almost no people becoming lost, children safety will be almost guaranteed and elderly and sick people will be easy to assist if needed (as we will see in the next slides).

In the long term we should see crime rates massively reducing, as the eyes of the big brother will certainly be watching all of us for our own safety. The phrase „I know what you did last summer“ will surprise no one and perhaps detectives will need to requalify to fit some other jobs.

* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10172298/One-surveillance-camera-for-every-11-people-in-Britain-says-CCTV-survey.html Images source: MisFit wearables

As a result of smart tracking, city environment will become much less hostile for all social groups in the need of assistance: the elderly, people with reduced mobility and children. Imagine that a blind person comes close to the crossroad and the traffic system switches on red lights for all vehicles 10 seconds before him or her stepping on the road surface.

With heartbeat being monitored and transmitted to a „medical cloud“, a person needing medical assistance will be under 24 hour supervision and should the first signs of serious medical condition appear, ambulance will be sent to wherever this person will be located at.

We will eventually know where every single person in the city was at any given moment of time. Perhaps we will go to as far as creating databases of people convicted of crimes in the past. With the tracking of convicted paedophiles, for example, you will be able to hear alarm signal should such person come close to your child playing in the yard or park. People convicted of minor crimes (i.e. thieves) may not be sent to prisons, but instead will be demanded not to get close to certain „forbidden“ areas.I am not evaluating moral aspects of such systems, but have no doubts they will have a massive demand on the market.

Images source: Google.

As briefly touched in previous slide, we will have more and more safety-related services available remotely. For example, fire fighters will be able to remotely switch on fire extinguishers and emergency air ventilation after detecting first signs of fire in a public building or a private apartment.

Robot doctors will track their patients health indicators with the help of devices similar to „smart“ watches of today. Perhaps, it may go as far as telling the person to stop eating third pack of ice cream because of sugar level in the blood rising too much. A problem of drunk driving will simply not exist – vehicle (whatever it will be) will not start with alcohol level exceeding acceptable limit. The only question is until when vehicle will need driver at all.

Police will be able to see almost all rooms in almost all public buildings and will know exactly who is present inside.

Image source: http://www.siebel-research.de/people_tracking/ showing modern tracking solutions Images source: Google.

Despite mostly positive trends described above, we will also see some negative ones. For example, brands and advertising will occupy even more public space than they do today. Digital billboards and neon lights will still exist, but brands will mostly be interested in creating whole areas of public spaces associated with them. With municipal finances unfortunately often strained, the the so called privatisation of public space will only accelerate.

We will see parks converted into leisure areas sponsored by banks, central squares of the cities converted into brand domination areas and similar solutions becoming a norm. This will push the consumerism even further. In the long term, I believe that more balanced solutions will be found and introduced and more regulation will exist for such cases, so advertising will become subtler.Working in advertising myself, I do understand that higher frequency is the road to nowhere.

Images: „Minority report“ movie by Steven Spielberg

As we see from previous slides, we will have more and more electronic assistants – tracking us, measuring our blood sugar and heartbeat levels and sophisticated communication devices enabling us to talk and see any person on Earth at any moment.

However, social links will be further erased, families will most probably stop existing and so called „ fluid partnerships“ will dominate. Despite all the IT technologies being created to connect us, unfortunately we will feel more and more „lonely in the crowd“, as skimming through photos of friends’ life successes actually triggers feelings of envy, misery and loneliness*.

This issue will change the industry of entertainment as we know it today. Robotic friends and electronic dogs will become a norm.

Image source: BBC, Japan times, Googlehttp://healthland.time.com/2013/01/24/why-facebook-makes-you-feel-bad-about-yourself/

Since there inevitably will be more people living in cities, we all will see the reduction of our living space. At the same time, we will see the rise in quality of it, so heat- and sound isolation, for example, will be taken to a totally new level.

Smarter solutions occupying less space will be very much in demand, furniture will become flexible and sharing technologies we have discussed in transport section will also be applied to quite many household belongings. We will only be proprietors of the most intimate things that will be emotionally important for us – the rest will be shared.

First signs of such sharing economy already appear – for example, in Lithuania there already is a website called www.dalinuosi.lt, where people offer to share their toolboxes, cameras, game consoles, desk games and even luggage among other things. You can already borrow it all for a symbolic fee.

Ownership of things will not be fashionable, which is definitely positive if we remember the need to save our planet`s resources.

Images source: Google.

To put it very simply – the cities will have to become energetically positive, which means they will have to produce more energy than they use. Wastage of resources will gradually be reduced thanks to smart technologies – if we all will be tracked, street lights will only be switched on on the streets where people will be present, water and heat will be automatically switched off in apartments once people will leave them.

On another hand, already now we are able to produce heat even from the Christmas trees collected after the holiday season. Waste management and re-usage will be taken to a completely new level – so that nothing will be wasted. We have no other choice. In addition, nano- technologies for example, may help us to use the windows of our buildings to collect the heat and solar energy, bacteria will help in cleaning up cities streets, and so on.

In the long term, the city will take nothing from the outside and will emit nothing back to the surrounding environment.

Images source: Google.

With green areas coming back to the city and pollution massively reduced, our food logistics will change dramatically.

City gardens and vegetable farms on the roofs of our buildings will become completely ordinary. What will happen is similar to the cleaning of the cities after terrible environmental effect caused in the 18th and 19th century because of the industrial revolution. We will eat the fruits and vegetables grown next to us and being vegetarian will be a new norm. Among other things, local food has more nutrients, so it is more beneficial*.

This will further eliminate the pollution as such norms of today as transporting the apples or bananas for several thousand kilometres will become obsolete and economically unneeded. Today, every kilogramme of banana produced results in 1.48 kg of global warming emissions**. It simply cannot continue. „Noma“ restaurant in Copenhagen, winning prestigious awards and often called „the best restaurant in the world“, offers local seasonal produce. I hope that it will be normal diet in a very near future - and not only in the best restaurants.

* http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/7_benefits_of_eating_local_foods** http://www.triplepundit.com/2011/06/source-19-banana

Images: Hermes rooftop garden, Paris

Together with reintroduction of green areas back into our cities, we will gradually bring back the animals as well. Bees, birds and small animals will co-exist with us in the new city environment. We will have to learn how to avoid birds smashing into the windows of our skyscrapers* and find a way to make bees completely not dangerous even for allergic people, but biology will certainly solve this.

Not only squirrels and rabbits, but animals such as beavers, deer, multiple species of birds, insects, some smaller predatorsand many others will be back to our cities. There is no other alternative to living in harmony with the nature if we want to continue living on this planet. With natural habitat gradually decreasing, city will become a new place of life for all.

Image: Philips Urban Bee hive concept, Googlehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird-skyscraper_collisions

Disappearance of fossil fuel will finally push us to develop new, almost unlimited sources of energy and will push us to use it in a more sensible way. Thermonuclear stations are expected to be launched by 2027*; much more efficient wind-, solar- and ocean waves stations will add up to our energetical balance.

Since we will travel less on a daily basis thanks to the virtual economy, the growth of energetical efficiency and the fall in total energy consumption per person will lead to a double effect – cities will use up to 50%-70% less energy that they do today and most of it will come from renewable or neutral resources.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Timeline_and_current_status Images: fusion plant, solar plant, Google

It`s a universal trend of less marriages being registered and our relationships becoming more „fluid“. This trend will have a massive impact on the cities – for example, it will be completely normal to raise children without partner and thus, such professions as nannies, will see a big increase in demand. We will also have to adapt our buildings to a new reality – kindergardens and schools will be located inside major office buildings in the medium term.

However, since virtual working places will start to dominate, in the long term people will spend more time out of their offices. With our mobility increasing, perhaps current early education system of today, when a child has to go to the same school or kindergarden, where every teacher knows him or her, will gradually change to a hotel-like system, which is a major challenge we have to start thinking about.

Research shows that already now by the time the class of 20 children finishes fourth grade, only six students will have been continuously enrolled in the same school*. The same research shows that switching schools affects student achievement, so the system needs to adapt to the new trend of increased mobility.

http://news.nd.edu/news/11943-notre-dame-research-shows-switching-schools-affects-student-achievement/ Images source: Google

Virtualisation of our economy, education and work will dramatically affect the cities. We will travel much less for business or education and instead will communicate with the help of virtual reality.

Speaking of distance or online education, for example, we already see that between 2008 and 2009, the total higher education enrolment in the US increased just over 1 percent, while the number of students enrolled in at least one online course increased by 21.1 percent. As of 2009, online enrolment already represents almost one-third (29.3 percent) of all higher education enrolment in the US*.

It became a normal practice in my company to have video- and teleconferences instead of annual regional meetings which we used to have every year in the past decades. Additionally, with the introduction of internal internet community reminiscent of Facebook, so we haven`t had annual conferences in the past 2 years as news and information spread much faster online. There simply is no reason to travel „physically“.

These trends will lead to the disappearance of business lounges in airports and perhaps even closures of some „brick and mortar“ universities or libraries, which will become completely virtual. Knowledge will be unlinked from location and instead will occupy „the cloud“ accessible from anywhere. First online university, located in Spain, has already celebrated it`s 20th anniversary**.

http://www.hanoverresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Trends-in-Global-Distance-Learning-Membership.pdf page 12

http://www.uoc.edu/portal/en/Images source: Google

As a result of virtualisation, we will spend less time commuting. In 2003 the average UK commute was 45 minutes, today it is 54 minutes. That compares with 70 minutes in Portugal, 80 minutes in Ivory Coast and 23 minutes in Italy. The world average today is about 40 minutes. We spend about a year of our lives getting to and from the office*.

I have a friend of mine living in Italy and commuting for over 2,5 hours a day – he drives his car to the train station nearest to his village, takes an hour-long train and finally takes 11 stops by the Milan metro to reach his work. 3 years ago he was allowed not to travel on Fridays and since last autumn he only spends 3 days of the week in the office. This will become a new norm very soon.

Paradoxically, what will happen is that we will fill in this newly available time with even more gaming, entertainment and escapism. Game consoles with virtual reality, phones with 3D videos and similar gadgets will propel in demand. As „Disconnect“ movie shows very boldly, despite all the social media existing to connect us, we are actually becoming more and more distant from each other.

http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/493116/Commuting-facts-from-around-the-world Images source: Google, Gamespot

Thanks to the development of medicine and safety and security features described above, there is no doubt that life expectancy will continue to grow. According to WHO, a girl who was born in 2012 can expect to live to around 73 years, and a boy to the age of 68. This is six years longer than the average global life expectancy for a child born in 1990*. Interestingly, top 8 countries with highest life expectancy are actually highly urban locations, such as Monaco, Hong Kong, Singapore or Andorra**.

The increase in the longevity of life will mean that it will be completely normal to have 5 or even 6 generations of the family being alive. Yet, the old tradition of grandparents helping with children will gradually be erased, as modern grandparents are very active in their business lives with the average retirement age growing as well. At the same time, the norm of the past whenchildren took care of their elderly parents, will also gradually disappear.

This trend will mean that the family links will become less important and people will communicate less not only with their partners, but with their parents, grandparents and so on. As discussed before, a huge spike in demand for nannies and specialists to care for the elderly and according facilities in the cities will be seen very soon.

* http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/world-health-statistics-2014/en/Images source: Google

**http://www.geoba.se/population.php?pc=world&type=15

In higher education, I expect the arrival of solutions similar to tailor-made medicines based on person`s genetics. Each prospective student will be evaluated thoroughly and unique list of courses will be offered instead of inflexible structure of courses delivered to all. Earlier in this presentation, we saw similar effect expected in public transport.

Perhaps, a combination of studies in different univertsities will lead to an official diploma – so it will be completely normal to take 20 courses in 5 universities, not in one. Coursera already makes it possible to do an elite MBA as a combination of classes from Stanford, Wharton, and Yale for less than 1000 USD, though it`s not officially recognised yet*.

The effect could be comparable to the iTunes effect to the music industry** (where no one downloads full albums, instead we only pick up hits from many artists). Each university will have certain „hit“ disciplines, that will be very popular, the rest will become a commodity. In turn, this will lead to further increase in popularity of „star professors“.

The fact that knowledge and education will be available to basically any person in the world irrespectively of his geographical location, will lead to more equal distribution of wealth among different geographies of the world.

** http://www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/1559622/seven-ways-itunes-changed-the-music-industry

* https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140117183101-17970806-she-s-doing-an-elite-mba-for-under-1-000Images source: Google

One of the most important changes I expect in the city of the future is the fall of the „average“ shopping street. What we will increasingly see is the rise in importance of „high“ street with shops being brand flagmans, and an abundance of trade space available for rent because of the virtualisation of our economies.

Already now, the biggest grocery retailer in my home country, „Maxima“ is making substantial revenues by delivering grocery products bought online. It`s only a matter of time when companies will start closing „brick and mortar“ stores and it will obviously start in large cities, where commuting time is longer and people are busier.

High street will eventually become a brand zone and shops similar to „Apple“ stores with almost religious following, will become a norm. Despite these places being called „flagman stores“, actual transactions will almost universally happen online. No one buys „Citroen“ in their Champs Elysees showroom, after all.

Images source: Google

Similar trend will happen not only in shopping segment – we will inevitably see the fall in demand for office space, parkings and factories. At the same time, mega warehouses mostly located out of central areas, will rise in popularity. However, these mega warehouses and production facilities will mostly be served by robots, so humans will mostly work in the services and maintenance of online shops, answering customers questions remotely.

This trends means that even more space occupied by the business today will become available quite soon. It will most likely be converted to luxurious apartments, though it will be not so easy to convert them into living areas (for example, demand for windows is different for offices and apartments). Lofts on offer are likely to rise manyfold.

Images source: Google

Another great change in the economy of the city lies in the way we will be working. To put it very short – every person will effectively become a corporation. With all our transactions being monitored, we will have more fluid business relationships and what we call today a „freelancer“ will perhaps become a standard definition of a worker – choosing where, when, with and for whom to work. Business projects and companies will be created for shorter periods – perhaps, for days or weeks.

Taxes and payments to the state will be automatically deducted by the state-run software analysing income and operations, which will lead to higher tax collection efficiency at lower costs. This change will lead to a growing competition between different cities and entire countries – so „economical“ refugees similar to Gerard Depardieu (legally „living“ in Russia because of high taxation in France) will become a norm as well. Cities will fight for super rich people offering them huge benefits.

We saw this in effect in Latvia, which had a program of offering residence permits to all foreign nationals investing at least 142,000 Euros into the real estate or making an investment worth of at least 35,000 Euro into the capital of Latvian company. EU residence permits were automatically issued to the spouses and children. This offer has been used by 4744 foreigners investing a total of approximately 400 million Euros into the country`s economy, with vast majority of it going to the city of Riga*.

http://www.baltic-legal.com/news-residence-permit-latvia-facts-results-eng.htm Images source: Google

The importance of countries will eventually fall, so what we will see is the economy of the city being most important - somewhat similarly to the Middle Ages.

Already now, European Union is at the forefront of cross-country working and travelling. Luxembourg is a very good example of basically a city attracting over 200,000 workers daily. With virtualisation of our economies an interesting issue will be raised – where shall the taxes be paid if a virtual worker working from home in the city of Trier, Germany, earns his salary in Luxembourg? There currently are 25,000 Trier workers commuting daily to Luxembourg.

My home city of Vilnius created a very interesting program for inhabitants who were legally registered in other cities and towns (so their income taxes were transferred there, while the person used Vilnius infrastructure). The municipality allowed any person toregister their legal address at the most prestigious street in Vilnius, Gedimino avenue 24-40 (in the apartment, belonging to the city municipality). The action has attracted 4499 people, raising city income tax collection by approximately 1%.

Famous Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich was a governor of Chukotka region of this country. His income tax paid to the regional budget, was approximately 30 million Euros a year and it represented a whopping 46% percent of the total region`s budget*!

http://www.engology.com/eng5abramovich.htm Images source: Google

The most interesting trend of the future is that with more and more data collected about us, it will reveal more and more differences and countertrends – so numerous new microtrends will appear that have always existed but were unseen because it was impossible to measure them before. We will have even more subcultures and variations than we do today and perhaps, the presentation madeon the same topic in the future, will cover not 5 major elements and trends, but 20 or 50.

Image source: Google

5 key words to remember that will affect all elements of the future city:

Fluidity – in the way we will do business, in our relationships and communications;Countertrends – more free time yet more escapism, more flexibility yet more loneliness;Sharing – one of the keywords of the future, ownership will only remain for the most intimate things;Tracking and data collection – more and more data will exist about every step of our lives;Fixing mistakes of the past and building creative and environmentally sound city with a human touch.

One of my favourite quotes by Marshall McLuhan says: „We shape our tools and then our tools shape us“. It can be fully applied to the cities, because the way we shape our cities eventually shapes ourselves – our levels of stress, health and safety. City will have an ever increasing impact on our lives and the way we communicate, enter relationships, educate and raise our children and make our living.

I am optimistic about the future and am sure that we will shape our cities in a smart and sustainable way that will eventually come back to us all in a form of better, longer, healthier, safer and more interesting life. It is a good investment for sure.

Photo: Marshall McLuhan

One final thought