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Local Price Trends The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2017 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Leslie Rouda Smith. Local NAR Leadership Note: limits are current and include the changes made in December 2016. $37,700 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* $73,900 Prices are up from a year ago, but price growth is slowing Houston U.S. $39,700 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2017 Q1) 6.9% $72,200 20.8% 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain* 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain* Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing $331,200 U.S. FHA Loan Limit Price Activity $230,700 $222,300 Houston Current Median Home Price (2017 Q1) $636,150 Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio $424,100 not comparable $64,333 $636,150 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2017 Q1) 6.9% Local Trend *Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the recession $32,167 52% Conforming Loan Limit** Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area Local Market Report, First Quarter 2017 Today's Market… 20.4% $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2017 Q1 Q3 2016 Q1 Q3 2015 Q1 Q3 2014 Q1 Q3 2013 Q1 Q3 2012 Q1 Q3 2011 Q1 Q3 2010 Q1 Q3 2009 Q1 Q3 2008 Q1 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth
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Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

May 25, 2020

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Page 1: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Local Price Trends

The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2017 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Leslie Rouda Smith.

Local NAR Leadership

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in December 2016.

$37,7007-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$73,900

Prices are up from a year ago, but price growth is slowing

Houston U.S.

$39,700

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2017 Q1)6.9%

$72,200

20.8%3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing$331,200

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity$230,700$222,300

HoustonCurrent Median Home Price (2017 Q1)

$636,150Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$424,100

not comparable

$64,333

$636,150

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2017 Q1) 6.9%

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the

recession$32,167

52%

Conforming Loan Limit**

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, First Quarter 2017

Today's Market…

20.4%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2017Q1

Q32016Q1

Q32015Q1

Q32014Q1

Q32013Q1

Q32012Q1

Q32011Q1

Q32010Q1

Q32009Q1

Q32008Q1

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 2: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.$17,785 $18,582

Total Equity Gained** through 2017 Q1 from quarter in which home was of purchasedLocal Trend

$48,7433-year (12-quarter)* $46,440

Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity

growth since the recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$46,748$45,884If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $111,489

$93,620

$83,5765-year (20-quarter)* $83,9967-year (28 quarters)* $88,763 $76,553

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)*

$17,785

$87,786

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

2016 Q12014 Q12012 Q12010 Q12008 Q12006 Q12004 Q1

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 3: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Natural Resourc 9.2% 305.2 Natural R5.2%

Natural Resourc 2.6% 87.3 Natural R0.5%

Construction 6.5% 217.9 Construc 0.5%

Manufacturing 6.8% 227.5 Manufac 8.4%

Trade/Transporta 18.0% 600.2 Trade/Tr 18.6%

Information 1.0% 32.5 Informa1.9%

Financial Activ 4.6% 153.9 Financia5.7%

Prof. & Busine 14.2% 472.7 Professi14.1%

Educ. & Healt 11.7% 387.9 Educatio15.8%

Leisure & Hos 9.6% 318.8 Leisure 11.0%Other Services 3.3% 108.3 Other S 3.9%

Government 12.5% 417.1 81.7% Governm15.4% 100.0%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government

400

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Employment has held up and is on an upward trend

3006,500

9,200

12-month change (2017 - Apr)

36-month change (2017 - Apr) 9.9%10.5%

3.1%

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area (Mar - 2017)

1,100

14,100

U.S.Texas

-1,100 Natural Resources and Mining Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

-4,900

Share of Total Employment by Industry

Information

Other Services

Government

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

-6,000

4.4%

5.0%1.4%

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

-300 Manufacturing

-5,600

Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve

5.3%

4.8%

Current Unemployment Rate (Apr)

3.0%

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

125,300

41,900

Not Comparable

Houston's unemployment situation is worse than the national average and weighs on

confidence

Not Comparable

31,600

36-month Job Change (Apr)

Texas's economy is stronger than the nation's, but slowed from last month's

3.15% change

12-month Job Change (Apr)

11,900

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Mar)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate 1.6%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

Natural Resources/Mining/Constru

ct9.2%

Natural Resources

and Mining2.6%

Construction6.5%

Manufacturing

6.8%

Trade/Transportation/Utilit

ies18.0%Information

1.0%Financial Activities

4.6%

Prof. & Business Services14.2%

Educ. & Health

Services11.7%

Leisure & Hospitality

9.6%

Other Services

3.3%

Government12.5%

Natural Resources/

Mining/Construct5.2%

Natural Resources

and Mining0.5%

Construction0.5%

Manufacturing

8.4%

Trade/Transportation/Uti

lities18.6%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.7%

Professional & Business

Services14.1%

Educational & Health Services15.8%

Leisure & Hospitality

11.0%

Other Services

3.9%

Government15.4%

Page 4: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

3.9%

29,907 Production above trend for an extended

period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built up.

U.S.New Housing Construction

Single-Family Housing Permits (Apr 2017) 12-month sum vs. a year ago 8.4%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Apr 2017 37,294

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

Local Fundamentals

The current level of construction is 24.7% above the long-term average

Construction is on the rise relative to last year, suggesting that the local inventory has

stabilized

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 5: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.4

U.S.

Historical Average More affordable than most markets19.2%9.4%

Affordability

8.8%

U.S.

Ratio for 2017 Q1

Ratio for 2016

Ratio for 2017 Q1Ratio for 2016

15.6%Historically strong, but weaker than the

fourth quarter of 201615.2%

2.8

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

8.1%

1.51.5

2.72.7

The price-to-income ratio eased, but could be better

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2016201420122010200820062004200220001998

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2017 Q12016 Q42016 Q32016 Q22016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q2

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 6: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

The first quarter was marked by rising mortgage rates. Short- and long- term U.S. interest rates continued to increase after November’s elections. The Fed raised the federal fund in March, bringing the target from 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent while Freddie Mac published that the average interest rate on a 30-year conventional home loan was 4.2 percent in Q1 2017 from 3.8 percent in Q4 2016. Intermediate-term yields also increased during the quarter, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury closing at 2.4 percent. Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, its actions can affect the housing market. Mortgage rates tend to move with the government’s 10-year Treasury note, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates. However, homebuyers should bear in mind that mortgage rates still hover in the historically low range. Homebuyers have excellent purchasing power at these mortgage rates, and while it may make sense for fewer households to refinance, there are still some households that can save cash with a refinance. Looking ahead, despite the recent decline in April, interest rates are likely to head higher in 2017. NAR is forecasting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average 4.3 percent for 2017.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

2017 Q1Q32016 Q1Q32015 Q1Q32014 Q1Q32013 Q1Q32012 Q1

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2016201420122010200820062004200220001998

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 7: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

REALTOR® Price Expectations

Texas U.S.

2017 - Apr 3.8% 4.2% REALTORS® expect weaker price growth in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12

months although their local expectations are higher than a year ago.Prior 12 months 3.7% 3.8%

REALTOR® Price Expectations

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%

REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: NAR

Page 8: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/bulletins_default/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following

counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Page 9: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Local Price Trends

The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.

Local NAR Leadership

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$30,800

7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$61,600

Prices continue to grow relative to last year

Houston U.S.

$32,267

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q3)5.2%

$56,800

15.6%

3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing

$326,600

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity

$239,133$217,400

Houston

Current Median Home Price (2016 Q3)

$625,500Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$417,000

not comparable

$60,900

$625,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q3) 0.1%

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the

recession$17,967

52%

Conforming Loan Limit**

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, Third Quarter 2016

Today's Market…

16.5%

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2016Q3

Q12015Q3

Q12014Q3

Q12013Q3

Q12012Q3

Q12011Q3

Q12010Q3

Q12009Q3

Q12008Q3

Q12007Q3

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 10: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.

$3,715 $15,479

Total Equity Gained** through 2016 Q3 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$41,9323-year (12-quarter)* $39,519

Price appreciation and principle payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity

growth since the recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$34,098

$28,103If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $97,761

$80,516

$71,1425-year (20-quarter)* $82,243

7-year (28 quarters)* $74,124 $73,900

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)*

$3,715

$74,367

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2015 Q32013 Q32011 Q32009 Q32007 Q32005 Q32003 Q3

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 11: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Natural Resourc 9.2% 303.8 Natural R5.2%

Natural Resourc 2.6% 87.3 Natural R0.5%

Construction 6.5% 216.5 Construc 0.5%

Manufacturing 6.9% 230 Manufac 8.4%

Trade/Transporta 18.7% 617.6 Trade/Tr 18.8%

Information 0.9% 30.4 Informa1.9%

Financial Activ 4.6% 152.2 Financia5.7%

Prof. & Busine 14.0% 464.1 Professi14.1%

Educ. & Healt 11.7% 388.1 Educatio15.8%

Leisure & Hos 9.8% 324.2 Leisure 10.6%Other Services 3.2% 106.7 Other S 3.9%

Government 11.8% 389.1 81.6% Governm15.5% 100.0%

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Financial Activities

Prof. & Business Services

Educ. & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government

-1,700

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Employment has held up and is on an upward trend

400

-7,000

20,700

12-month change (2016 - Sep)

36-month change (2016 - Sep)10.0%12.0%

2.6%

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area (Sep - 2016)

-500

8,200

U.S.Texas

-1,900

Natural Resources and Mining

Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

-9,800

Share of Total Employment by Industry

Information

Other Services

Government

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

-11,700

5.0%

5.1%

0.7%

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

-10,400 Manufacturing

6,100

Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve

5.7%

4.8%

Current Unemployment Rate (Sep)

2.9%

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

163,700

20,100

Not Comparable

Houston's unemployment situation is worse than the national average and weighs on

confidence

Not Comparable

12,500

36-month Job Change (Sep)

The economy of Texas is growing more slowly than the rest of the nation, but improved modestly from last month's

2.52% change

12-month Job Change (Sep)

16,000

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Aug)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

1.8%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

Natural Resources/Mining/Constru

ct9.2%

Natural Resources

and Mining2.6%

Construction6.5%

Manufacturing

6.9%

Trade/Transportation/Utilit

ies18.7%

Information0.9%Financial

Activities4.6%

Prof. & Business Services14.0%

Educ. & Health

Services11.7%

Leisure & Hospitality

9.8%

Other Services

3.2%

Government11.8%

Natural Resources/

Mining/Construct5.2%

Natural Resources

and Mining0.5%

Construction0.5%

Manufacturing

8.4%

Trade/Transportation/Uti

lities18.8%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.7%

Professional & Business

Services14.1%

Educational & Health Services15.8%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.6%

Other Services

3.9%

Government15.5%

Page 12: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

-4.9%

29,202 Production above trend for an extended

period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built up.

U.S.

New Housing Construction

Single-Family Housing Permits (Sep 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

9.5%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Sep 2016

35,728

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

Local Fundamentals

The current level of construction is 22.3% above the long-term average

Construction continues to decline from last year

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 13: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.3

U.S.

Historical Average More affordable than most markets19.5%9.3%

Affordability

7.7%

U.S.

Ratio for 2016 Q3

Ratio for 2015

Ratio for 2016 Q3

Ratio for 2015

15.5%

Historically strong and an improvement over the second quarter of 2016

15.6%

2.8

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

8.0%

1.4

1.4

2.7

2.9

The price-to-income ratio is high by historic standards and getting worse

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2016 Q32016 Q22016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q4

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 14: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

The third quarter of 2016 was marked by low mortgage rates. Presidential elections introduced uncertainty in the equity and bond markets which, as a rule, markets don’t like. Furthermore, forecasts for production and inflation remained low, helping to keep rates contained in a narrow band, hovering between 3.44% and 3.46% for the period between July and September. For the entire quarter, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.6 percent in the second quarter to 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016, while the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.65 percent. What to expect about mortgage rates in the upcoming quarters? It seems that mortgage rates will move up but they will not change significantly while China’s growth is still slow, Japan’s woes continue, and the Eurozone continues to stagger along. However, the Fed is coming closer to reaching its dual mandate which could in turn result in rate hikes in the near future. Furthermore, the President-Elect’s policies include increased infrastructure spending, tariffs, and immigration reform all of which could drive inflationary pressures over the longer term. NAR is forecasting the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to average just 4.1 percent for 2017.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2016 Q3Q12015 Q3Q12014 Q3Q12013 Q3Q12012 Q3Q12011 Q3

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 15: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

REALTOR® Price Expectations

Texas U.S.

2016 - Sep 3.1% 3.0%REALTORS® expect higher price growth

in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations

for the local market are more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 3.8% 3.2%

REALTOR® Price Expectations

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: NAR

Page 16: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following

counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Page 17: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, Second Quarter 2016

Today's Market…

15.0%

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after the

recession$15,400

52%

Conforming Loan Limit**

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity

$239,167$217,400

Houston

Current Median Home Price (2016 Q2)

$625,500Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$417,000

not comparable

$64,800

$625,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q2) -1.7%

Year-over-year price growth swung negative this quarter after growing last

quarter

Houston U.S.

$36,200

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q2)4.9%

$60,000

17.8%

3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing

$326,600

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$28,400

7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$62,500

Local Price Trends

The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.

Local NAR Leadership

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2016Q2

Q42015Q2

Q42014Q2

Q42013Q2

Q42012Q2

Q42011Q2

Q42010Q2

Q42009Q2

Q42008Q2

Q42007Q2

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 18: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

$73,2255-year (20-quarter)* $82,353

7-year (28 quarters)* $77,287 $77,054

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)* $81,783

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.

$50 $14,963

Total Equity Gained** through 2016 Q2 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$46,8783-year (12-quarter)* $38,343Price trends in the last three years have

undercut the steady post-recession home equity growth despite owners paying down

principle

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$31,126

$34,380If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $100,037

-$50

$76,055

-$20,000

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

2015 Q22013 Q22011 Q22009 Q22007 Q22005 Q22003 Q2

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 19: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Natural Resourc 9.2% 302.6 Natural R5.3%

Natural Resourc 2.6% 86.8 Natural R0.5%

Construction 6.5% 215.8 Construc 0.5%

Manufacturing 7.0% 231.5 Manufac 8.6%

Trade/Transporta 18.6% 615.3 Trade/Tr 19.0%

Information 0.9% 31.2 Informa1.9%

Financial Activ 4.7% 154.5 Financia5.8%

Prof. & Busine 13.9% 458.6 Professi14.1%

Educ. & Healt 11.6% 383.4 Educatio15.5%

Leisure & Hos 9.9% 327.8 Leisure 11.3%Other Services 3.3% 109.2 Other S 4.0%

Government 11.7% 387.8 81.7% Governm14.5% 100.0%

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Financial Activities

Prof. & Business Services

Educ. & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government

19,000

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (May)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

1.9%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

166,800

8,400

Not Comparable

Houston's unemployment situation is worse than the national average and weighs on

confidence

Not Comparable

3,200

36-month Job Change (Jun)

Texas's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 2.32% change

and lags the rest of the nation

12-month Job Change (Jun)

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

-15,600

4.9%

5.3%

0.3%

Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

-16,000 Manufacturing

4,100

Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve

5.5%

4.8%

Current Unemployment Rate (Jun)

3.0%

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area (Jun - 2016)

1,000

8,400

U.S.Texas

-2,100

Natural Resources and Mining

Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

-13,500

Share of Total Employment by Industry

Information

Other Services

Government

12-month change (2016 - Jun)

36-month change (2016 - Jun)10.2%12.2%

2.3%

2,900

-14,700

20,800

Employment has held up and is on an upward trend

-1,500

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Natural Resources/Mining/Constru

ct9.2%

Natural Resources

and Mining2.6%

Construction6.5%

Manufacturing

7.0%

Trade/Transportation/Utilit

ies18.6%

Information0.9%Financial

Activities4.7%

Prof. & Business Services13.9%

Educ. & Health

Services11.6%

Leisure & Hospitality

9.9%

Other Services

3.3%

Government11.7%

Natural Resources/

Mining/Construct5.3%

Natural Resources

and Mining0.5%

Construction0.5%

Manufacturing

8.6%

Trade/Transportation/Uti

lities19.0%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.8%

Professional & Business

Services14.1%

Educational & Health Services15.5%

Leisure & Hospitality

11.3%

Other Services

4.0%

Government14.5%

Page 20: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Construction continues to decline from last year

The current level of construction is 23.5% above the long-term average

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

Local Fundamentals

10.6%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Jun 2016

35,913

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

Single-Family Housing Permits (Jun 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

-6.1%

29,091 Production above trend for an extended

period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built up.

U.S.

New Housing Construction

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 21: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Ratio for 2016 Q2

Ratio for 2015

15.8%

Historically strong, but weaker than the first quarter of 2016

15.6%

2.8

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

8.0%

1.4

1.4

2.7

2.9

The price-to-income ratio is high by historic standards and getting worse

Affordability

7.9%

U.S.

Ratio for 2016 Q2

Ratio for 2015

Historical Average More affordable than most markets19.5%9.3%

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.3

U.S.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2016 Q22016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q42014 Q3

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 22: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

The second quarter of 2016 has been quite tumultuous with the surprising “Brexit” vote in the United Kingdom. While British citizens voted to leave the European Union last June, the full impact of the vote could take several years to be seen. In the near future, low mortgage rates and stronger refinancing are expected in the U.S.. Meanwhile, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.7 percent in the 1st quarter of 2016 to 3.6 percent in the second quarter of 2016. Similarly, the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.75 percent which is the lowest rate after Q4 2012. As a result of the current market conditions, existing homeowners benefit from low rates by refinancing their mortgages while home affordability is increasing for first-time homebuyers. Rates are likely to remain unchanged as global economies remain weak. The uncertainty in China, Japan, Russia and Eurozone is expected to boost safe-haven buying which benefits mortgage-backed securities market. NAR is now forecasting fewer rate hikes by the FED in 2016 and as a result the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now expected to average just 4.3 percent for 2016.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2016 Q2Q42015 Q2Q42014 Q2Q42013 Q2Q42012 Q2Q42011 Q2

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 23: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

REALTOR® Price Expectations

Texas U.S.

2016 - Jul 3.9% 3.6%REALTORS® expect higher price growth

in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations

for the local market are more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 4.3% 3.4%

REALTOR® Price Expectations

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: NAR

Page 24: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following

counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Page 25: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, First Quarter 2016

Today's Market…

27.1%

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after

the recession$1,667

50%

Conforming Loan Limit**

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity$215,767$208,000

HoustonCurrent Median Home Price (2016 Q1)

$625,500Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$417,000

not comparable

$48,200

$625,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q1) 3.8%Prices are up from a year ago, but price

growth is slowing

Houston U.S.

$39,833

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2016 Q1)6.1%

$69,500

22.6%3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing$326,600

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$44,3007-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$60,800

Local Price Trends

The Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.

Local NAR Leadership

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2016Q1

Q32015Q1

Q32014Q1

Q32013Q1

Q32012Q1

Q32011Q1

Q32010Q1

Q32009Q1

Q32008Q1

Q32007Q1

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 26: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

$70,8715-year (20-quarter)* $68,7277-year (28 quarters)* $84,639 $59,758

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)* $79,484

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.$11,062 $15,781

Total Equity Gained** through 2016 Q1 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$49,3563-year (12-quarter)* $53,161Price appreciation and principle

payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the

recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$16,435

$30,059If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $94,152

$11,062

$71,737

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2015 Q12013 Q12011 Q12009 Q12007 Q12005 Q12003 Q1

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 27: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Natural Resour 9.4% 309.5 Natural 5.0%

Natural Resour 2.7% 90.5 Natural 0.5%

Construction 6.6% 219 Constru 0.5%

Manufacturing 7.1% 234.7 Manufac8.5%

Trade/Transpo 18.5% 610.7 Trade/T 18.8%

Information 0.9% 31 Informa1.9%

Financial Act 4.6% 152.2 Financi5.7%

Prof. & Busin 13.9% 459.5 Profess14.0%

Educ. & Heal 11.4% 377.3 Educat 15.8%

Leisure & Ho 9.5% 312.9 Leisure10.7%Other Service 3.2% 105.7 Other S3.9%

Government 12.0% 394 81.2% Govern15.6% 100.0%#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government Other Services

Government

14,500

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Feb)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

2.0%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

184,300

7,400

Not Comparable

Unemployment has risen since the same period last year, but Houston's labor market has been more resilient

than the national average

Not Comparable

8,600

36-month Job Change (Mar)

Texas's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 2.55% change and lags the rest of the nation

12-month Job Change (Mar)

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

-10,000

5.0%

5.5%0.2%

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

-20,600 Manufacturing

5,900

Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve

4.9%

4.3%

Current Unemployment Rate (Mar)

3.1%

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area (Mar - 2016)

-200

8,000

U.S.Texas

4,100 Natural Resources and Mining Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

-14,100

Share of Total Employment by Industry

12-month change (2016 - Mar)

36-month change (2016 - Mar)10.5%13.1%

2.5%

2,100-10,200

18,900

Employment growth has eased, but remains positive

-1,000

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Natural Resources/Mining/Con

struct9.4%

Natural Resources and Mining

2.7%Constructio

n6.6%Manufacturing

7.1%

Trade/Transportation/Uti

lities18.5%

Information0.9%

Financial Activities

4.6%

Prof. & Business Services13.9%

Educ. & Health

Services11.4%

Leisure & Hospitality

9.5%

Other Services

3.2%

Government

12.0%

Natural Resources/Mining/Con

struct5.0%

Natural Resources and Mining

0.5%

Construction

0.5%Manufacturi

ng8.5%

Trade/Transportation/

Utilities18.8%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.7%

Professional &

Business Services14.0%

Educational & Health Services15.8%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.7%

Other Services

3.9%

Government

15.6%

Page 28: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed.

The current level of construction is 25.6% above the long-term average

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

Local Fundamentals

11.3%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2016 36,506

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2016) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -4.7%

29,064 Production above trend for an

extended period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built

U.S.New Housing Construction

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 29: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Ratio for 2016 Q1Ratio for 2015

14.5%Historically strong and an improvement

over the fourth quarter of 201515.6%

2.8

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

8.0%

1.41.4

2.72.6

The price-to-income ratio eased, but could be better

Affordability

7.7%

U.S.

Ratio for 2016 Q1

Ratio for 2015

Historical Average More affordable than most markets19.5%9.3%

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.3

U.S.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2016 Q12015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q42014 Q32014 Q2

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 30: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

The first quarter of 2016 was marked by paroxysms in financial, energy, and commodity markets. The uncertainty in China and the emerging-market economies, the gathering doubt about the sustainability of the modern European project, and weakness in domestic growth were the issues of the early days of 2016. With regard to the mortgage market, the year began after the FED started its tightening cycle with the first rate hike this past December. However, since the start of the year mortgage rates have dropped as the FED held off on expected rate hikes. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgages eased from 3.9 percent in the 4th quarter of 2015 to 3.7 percent in the first quarter of 2016. The 10-year Treasury fell to 1.92 percent which is the lowest rate after Q4 2012. Rates are likely to remain low through the spring as the market deals with international instability and mixed signals for the domestic economy. NAR is now forecasting fewer rate hikes by the FED in 2016 and as a result the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now expected to average just 4.3 percent for 2016.”

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2016 Q1Q32015 Q1Q32014 Q1Q32013 Q1Q32012 Q1Q32011 Q1

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 31: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Texas U.S.

2016 - Apr 3.7% 3.8%REALTORS® expect weaker price

growth in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. Their price

expectations for the local market are more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 3.9% 3.9%

REALTOR® Price Expectations

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: NAR

Page 32: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the

following counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Page 33: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, Fourth Quarter 2015

Today's Market…

24.7%

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after

the recession$1,633

50%

Conforming Loan Limit**

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity$221,067$209,200

HoustonCurrent Median Home Price (2015 Q4)

$625,500Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$417,000

not comparable

$40,300

$625,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2015 Q4) 5.0%Prices are up from a year ago, but price

growth is slowing

Houston U.S.

$42,233

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2015 Q4)6.5%

$67,100

23.6%3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing$326,600

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$41,4007-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$60,600

Local Price Trends

The Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2016 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Matthew Ritchie.

Local NAR Leadership

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2015Q4

Q22014Q4

Q22013Q4

Q22012Q4

Q22011Q4

Q22010Q4

Q22009Q4

Q22008Q4

Q22007Q4

Q22006Q4

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 34: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

$67,6995-year (20-quarter)* $62,7647-year (28 quarters)* $80,931 $52,606

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)* $79,402

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.$13,116 $16,784

Total Equity Gained** through 2015 Q4 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$52,1293-year (12-quarter)* $50,686Price appreciation and principle

payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the

recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$16,571

$11,104If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $84,227

$13,116

$73,184

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2014 Q42012 Q42010 Q42008 Q42006 Q42004 Q42002 Q4

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 35: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Natural Resour 3.5% 107 Natural 0.5%

Construction 7.0% 211.7 Constru 0.5%

Manufacturing 8.0% 242.7 Manufac8.7%

Trade/Transpo 20.6% 620.9 Trade/T 19.1%

Information 1.1% 34 Informa1.9%

Financial Act 4.8% 144.1 Financi5.8%

Prof. & Busin 15.6% 470.8 Profess13.9%

Educ. & Heal 12.5% 378.3 Educat 15.8%

Leisure & Ho 10.3% 309.6 Leisure10.4%Other Service 3.4% 102.8 Other S4.0%

Government 13.1% 393.9 89.4% Govern15.5% #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government Other Services

Government

19,100

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Nov)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

2.1%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

217,800

23,200

Not Comparable

Unemployment has risen since the same period last year, but Houston's labor market has been more resilient

than the national average

Not Comparable

24,600

36-month Job Change (Dec)

Texas's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 2.75% change and lags the rest of the nation

12-month Job Change (Dec)

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

NA

5.0%

5.6%0.8%

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

-16,000 Manufacturing

800

Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve

4.6%

4.0%

Current Unemployment Rate (Dec)

3.2%

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area (Dec - 2015)

-1,500

10,200

U.S.Texas

2,900 Natural Resources and Mining Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

-8,500

Share of Total Employment by Industry

12-month change (2015 - Dec)

36-month change (2015 - Dec)10.6%12.9%

2.5%

-5,200400

19,600

Employment growth has eased, but remains positive

1,400

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Natural Resources and Mining

3.5%Constructio

n7.0% Manufacturi

ng8.0%

Trade/Transportation/Uti

lities20.6%

Information1.1%Financial Activities

4.8%

Prof. & Business Services15.6%

Educ. & Health

Services12.5%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.3%

Other Services

3.4%

Government

13.1%

Natural Resources and Mining

0.5%

Construction

0.5%

Manufacturing

8.7%

Trade/Transportation/

Utilities19.1%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.8%

Professional &

Business Services13.9%

Educational & Health Services15.8%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.4%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

15.5%

Page 36: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Construction continues to decline from last year

The current level of construction is 26.3% above the long-term average

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

Local Fundamentals

9.7%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Dec 2015 36,825

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

Single-Family Housing Permits (Dec 2015) 12-month sum vs. a year ago -3.3%

29,150 Production above trend for an

extended period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built

U.S.New Housing Construction

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 37: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Ratio for 2015 Q4Ratio for 2015

15.1%Historically strong and an improvement

over the third quarter of 201515.6%

2.8

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

8.4%

1.51.5

2.72.7

The price-to-income ratio eased, but could be better

Affordability

8.2%

U.S.

Ratio for 2015 Q4

Ratio for 2015

Historical Average More affordable than most markets19.5%9.7%

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.4

U.S.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2015 Q42015 Q32015 Q22015 Q12014 Q42014 Q32014 Q22014 Q1

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 38: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Despite indications of economic strength early in the 4th quarter, the Federal Reserve held of its much anticipated rate increases until mid-December. However, a fresh set of weak economic numbers centered on a slowing Chinese economy, excess oil, and the potential impacts on domestic oil exploration and manufacturing softened domestic economic growth in the 4th quarter. As a result, Treasuries slumped as investors moved money into this safe haven and mortgage rates benefited. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage eased modestly from 4.0 percent in the 3rd quarter to 3.9 percent in the 4th. The 10-year Treasury did not fall as much MBS and as a result the spread between them eased from 173 basis points to 171. While mortgage rates remained cheap, lenders were hit with the implementation of the new TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure rules (TRID) on October 3rd. Some lenders struggled to comply and a result roughly 10 percent of settlements were delayed by roughly 8 days on average, though few were canceled. Rates are likely to remain low through the spring as the market deals with international instability and the FED pulls back from planned rate hikes, but some lenders may continue to have issues with the new settlement procedures. NAR is now forecasting fewer rate hikes by the FED in 2016 and as a result the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now expect to average just 4.3 percent for 2016, down from earlier estimates near 5.0 percent.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2015 Q4Q22014 Q4Q22013 Q4Q22012 Q4Q22011 Q4Q22010 Q4

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2015201320112009200720052003200119991997

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 39: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Texas U.S.

2015 - Dec 3.1% 3.3%REALTORS® expect weaker price

growth in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. Their price

expectations for the local market are more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 3.9% 3.4%

REALTOR® Price Expectations

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: NAR

Page 40: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the

following counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Page 41: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, First Quarter 2015

Today's Market…

31.7%

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after

the recession-$13,067

48%

Conforming Loan Limit**

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity$203,867$200,300

HoustonCurrent Median Home Price (2015 Q1)

$625,500Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$417,000

not comparable

$5,333

$625,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2015 Q1) 8.5%Prices are up from a year ago, but price

growth is slowing

Houston U.S.

$45,533

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2015 Q1)6.7%

$51,900

28.8%3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing$326,600

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$48,2007-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$58,000

Local Price Trends

The Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2015 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is Bill Jones.

Local NAR Leadership

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2015Q1

Q32014Q1

Q32013Q1

Q32012Q1

Q32011Q1

Q32010Q1

Q32009Q1

Q32008Q1

Q32007Q1

Q32006Q1

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 42: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

$61,4415-year (20-quarter)* $47,4447-year (28 quarters)* $66,323 $17,200

1-year (4-quarter)

9-year (36 quarters)* $76,021

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.$18,490 $15,753

Total Equity Gained** through 2015 Q1 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$53,5653-year (12-quarter)* $55,915Price appreciation and principle

payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the

recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$100

$16,323If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $83,581

$18,490

$74,443

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2014 Q12012 Q12010 Q12008 Q12006 Q12004 Q12002 Q1

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 43: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Natural Resour 3.8% 113 Natural 0.6%

Construction 7.0% 206.9 Constru 0.6%

Manufacturing 8.6% 254.7 Manufac8.7%

Trade/Transpo 20.3% 601.7 Trade/T 18.8%

Information 1.1% 33.2 Informa2.0%

Financial Act 5.0% 148.8 Financi5.7%

Prof. & Busin 15.7% 466.1 Profess13.9%

Educ. & Heal 12.2% 362.1 Educat 15.6%

Leisure & Ho 9.9% 295.1 Leisure10.6%Other Service 3.5% 103.4 Other S4.0%

Government 13.0% 386.2 89.2% Govern15.8% #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government Other Services

Government

16,500

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Feb)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

2.1%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

282,200

82,500

Not Comparable

Unemployment in Houston is better than the national average and

improving

Not Comparable

96,000

36-month Job Change (Mar)

Texas's economy is stronger than the nation's, but slowed from last month's

4.55% change

12-month Job Change (Mar)

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

NA

5.5%

6.6%2.9%

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

2,300 Manufacturing

15,900

Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets

4.2%

5.2%

Current Unemployment Rate (Mar)

3.4%

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

Not Comparable

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area (Mar - 2015)

300

6,700

U.S.Texas

8,600 Natural Resources and Mining Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

5,500

Share of Total Employment by Industry

12-month change (2015 - Mar)

36-month change (2015 - Mar)9.3%13.2%

4.3%

3,00010,700

12,900

Employment growth has eased, but remains positive

100

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Natural Resources and Mining

3.8%Constructio

n7.0% Manufacturi

ng8.6%

Trade/Transportation/Uti

lities20.3%

Information1.1%

Financial Activities

5.0%

Prof. & Business Services15.7%

Educ. & Health

Services12.2%

Leisure & Hospitality

9.9%

Other Services

3.5%

Government

13.0%

Natural Resources and Mining

0.6%Constructio

n0.6%

Manufacturing

8.7%

Trade/Transportation/

Utilities18.8%

Information2.0%Financial

Activities5.7%

Professional &

Business Services13.9%

Educational & Health Services15.6%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.6%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

15.8%

Page 44: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Construction is on the rise relative to last year, suggesting that the local

inventory has stabilized

The current level of construction is 27.8% above the long-term average

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

Local Fundamentals

3.1%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2015 38,304

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2015) 12-month sum vs. a year ago 9.2%

29,983 Production above trend for an

extended period of time could cause prices to moderate as inventory is built

U.S.New Housing Construction

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 45: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Ratio for 2015 Q1Ratio for 2014

14.3%Historically strong and an improvement

over the fourth quarter of 201415.8%

2.7

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

8.4%

1.41.4

2.72.6

The price-to-income ratio eased, but could be better

Affordability

7.8%

U.S.

Ratio for 2015 Q1

Ratio for 2014

Historical Average More affordable than most markets20.0%9.5%

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.3

U.S.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2014201220102008200620042002200019981996

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2015 Q12014 Q42014 Q32014 Q22014 Q12013 Q42013 Q32013 Q2

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 46: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

The headline measure of economic activity, GDP growth, swung from a soft 2.2% in the 4th quarter of 2014 to a dismal 0.2% in the 1st quarter of 2015 with some suggesting that the 1st quarter figure would be revised lower. Sharp declines in global fuel prices over the winter impacted the domestic oil industry, while a rapid rise in the value of the dollar impacted domestic manufacturers’ ability to export and increased competition from importers. As a result, employment in both industries slumped in the first quarter. Compounding these issues was weakness in single family housing starts and construction. Weather was partially to blame, but builder sentiment was weak reflecting a pullback in consumer confidence. While not a recession, this economic soft patch weighed on mortgage rates in the 1st quarter which saw the average 30-year fixed rate fall from 3.97% in the 4th quarter to 3.73% in the 1st quarter of 2015. Treasury rates fell by more and a result the spread between the two rose from 169 basis points to 176. Affordability surged on sub-4% mortgage rates that were augmented by a sharp 50 basis point cut to the FHA’s annual mortgage insurance premium. NAR Research forecasts the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to climb to 4.3% by year end 2014 and to average 5.2% in 2016 as the Federal Reserve begins to raise short term rates in response to improving domestic and international economic conditions gain steam.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2015 Q1Q32014 Q1Q32013 Q1Q32012 Q1Q32011 Q1Q32010 Q1

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2014201220102008200620042002200019981996

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 47: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Texas U.S.

2015 - Mar 3.7% 3.5%REALTORS® expect higher price

growth in Texas than in the U.S. in the next 12 months. However, their price expectations for the local market are

more modest than a year ago.Prior 12 months 4.7% 3.5%

REALTOR® Price Expectations

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

REALTOR® Price Expectations for the Next 12 Months(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: NAR

Page 48: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the

following counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Page 49: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, Second Quarter 2014

Today's Market…

30.4%

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after

the recession-$8,000

49%

Conforming Loan Limit** $625,500

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity$212,267$204,000

HoustonCurrent Median Home Price (2014 Q2)

$625,500Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$417,000

not comparable

-$11,500

Local Trend

3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing$295,550

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$47,5007-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$61,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2014 Q2) 7.9%Prices are up from a year ago, but price

growth is slowing

Houston U.S.

$43,600

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2014 Q2)4.6%

$49,100

25.8%

Local Price Trends

The Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2014 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is David McKey.

Local NAR Leadership

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2014Q2

Q42013Q2

Q42012Q2

Q42011Q2

Q42010Q2

Q42009Q2

Q42008Q2

Q42007Q2

Q42006Q2

Q42005Q2

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 50: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

$58,3285-year (20-quarter)* $48,2257-year (28 quarters)* $63,129 $1,750

1-year (4-quarter)

$51,2043-year (12-quarter)* $54,556Price appreciation and principle

payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the

recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$5,043If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $80,855

9-year (36 quarters)* $80,855 $5,043

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.$18,195 $12,731

Total Equity Gained** through 2014 Q2 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$18,195

$62,611

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2013 Q22011 Q22009 Q22007 Q22005 Q22003 Q22001 Q2

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 51: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Natural Resour 4.0% 114.1 Natural 0.7%

Construction 6.8% 196.3 Constru 0.7%

Manufacturing 9.0% 259.7 Manufac8.8%

Trade/Transpo 20.1% 581.4 Trade/T 19.1%

Information 1.2% 33.2 Informa1.9%

Financial Act 5.0% 145.5 Financi5.8%

Prof. & Busin 15.3% 442.2 Profess14.0%

Educ. & Heal 12.1% 348.4 Educat 15.2%

Leisure & Ho 10.0% 289.4 Leisure11.1%Other Service 3.5% 101.8 Other S4.0%

Government 13.0% 374.5 89.2% Govern14.9% #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government Other Services

Government

12,500

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (May)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

1.7%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

Not Comparable

Unemployment in Houston is better than the national average and

improving

Not Comparable

93,300

36-month Job Change (Jun)

The economy of Texas has outpaced the rest of the nation and improved modestly from last month's 4.41%

change

12-month Job Change (Jun)

3.2%

5.4%

6.7%

Current Unemployment Rate (Jun)

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

285,400

87,500

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area (Jun - 2014)

1,500

10,000

U.S.

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

NA

6.1%

7.5%3.1%

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

6,900 Manufacturing

17,100

Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets

Employment growth has eased, but remains positive

Not Comparable

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

12-month change (2014 - Jun)

36-month change (2014 - Jun)9.2%13.7%

4.7%

5002,30012,500

11,900

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Texas

5,600 Natural Resources and Mining Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

6,700

Share of Total Employment by Industry

Natural Resources and Mining

4.0% Construction

6.8%Manufacturi

ng9.0%

Trade/Transportation/U

tilities20.1%

Information1.2%

Financial Activities

5.0%

Prof. & Business Services15.3%

Educ. & Health

Services12.1%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.0%

Other Services

3.5%

Government

13.0%

Natural Resources and Mining

0.7%

Construction

0.7%Manufacturi

ng8.8%

Trade/Transportation/

Utilities19.1%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.8%

Professional &

Business Services14.0%

Educational & Health Services15.2%

Leisure & Hospitality

11.1%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

14.9%

Page 52: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Construction is on the rise relative to last year, suggesting that the local

inventory has stabilized

The current level of construction is 14.0% above the long-term average

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

6.4%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Jun 2014 35,860

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

Local Fundamentals

Single-Family Housing Permits (Jun 2014) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

Production above trend for an extended period of time could cause

prices to moderate as inventory is built

U.S.New Housing Construction

11.7%

31,446

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 53: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Ratio for 2014 Q2Ratio for 2013

16.1%Historically strong, but weaker than the

first quarter of 201414.9%

2.6

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

7.6%

Affordability

8.9%

U.S.

Ratio for 2014 Q2

Ratio for 2013

Historical Average

U.S.1.31.5

2.72.7

More affordable than most markets20.3%9.7%

The price-to-income ratio is high by historic standards and getting worse

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.3

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2014 Q22014 Q12013 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12012 Q42012 Q3

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 54: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

The Mortgage Market

Despite the continued wind-down of the Federal Reserve’s MBS and Treasury purchase program, mortgage rates remain low. The program was averaging $40 billion in purchases monthly of MBS issued by Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as well as $45 billion in US Treasury bonds prior to the taper. The intent was to place downward pressure on the long-term borrowing costs. Rates were anticipated to rise as the Fed withdrew its support. However, GDP fell sharply in the 1st quarter, outpacing already weak expectations for the quarter. Furthermore, continued instability in Europe with the conflict in Ukraine heating up as well as volatility in the Israel, Syria, and Iraq, coupled with lingering questions about the veracity of the US economy have kept rates low. Rates averaged roughly 4.25% in the 2nd quarter of 2014. The Fed will continue to taper its new purchases of MBS through the late summer ending this portion of the program in October. The Fed will continue to reinvest the principle of MBS and Treasuries indefinitely, though, which is supportive of the market. Rates will likely be more volatile in response to economic news without the robust Fed purchase volume or nascent expansion of private demand for agency MBS. Eventually, a stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, will drive up rates over the long-term. NAR is forecasting an average 30-year fixed rate of 4.5% for 2014, but to be 4.8% in the 4th quarter of 2014 and to average 5.3% for 2015.

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2014 Q2Q42013 Q2Q42012 Q2Q42011 Q2Q42010 Q2Q42009 Q2

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 55: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area

includes the following counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report

Page 56: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Local Price Trends

The Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas. The 2014 NAR Regional Vice President representing region 10 is David McKey.

Local NAR Leadership

Note: limits are current and include the changes made in November of 2012 and extended in November of 2013

$36,1007-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$46,500

1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2014 Q1) 12.8%Prices continue to grow relative to last

year

Houston U.S.

$33,633

3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2014 Q1)8.9%

$37,400

21.3%3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing$295,550

U.S.

FHA Loan Limit

Price Activity$191,567$184,600

HoustonCurrent Median Home Price (2014 Q1)

$625,500Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio

$417,000

not comparable

-$22,533

Local Trend

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Gains in the last 3 years have extended the trend of positive price growth after

the recession-$8,000

44%

Conforming Loan Limit** $625,500

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land AreaLocal Market Report, First Quarter 2014

Today's Market…

24.3%

$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000

$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000$200,000

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2014Q1

Q32013Q1

Q32012Q1

Q32011Q1

Q32010Q1

Q32009Q1

Q32008Q1

Q32007Q1

Q32006Q1

Q32005Q1

Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth

Page 57: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Benefits of Ownership: Total Equity Appreciation

Price Activity Houston U.S.$23,752 $18,699

Total Equity Gained** through 2014 Q1 from quarter in which home was of purchased

Local Trend

$40,5433-year (12-quarter)* $42,597Price appreciation and principle

payments in the last 3 years have boosted total equity growth since the

recession

*Note: Equity gain reflects price and principle payments since purchase, prevailing 30-year fixed rate mortgage at time of purchase and a 10% downpayment. Downpayment is not included in total equity

$3,658If purchase in 2005, the national price peak $65,165

9-year (36 quarters)* $65,165 $3,658

$56,3685-year (20-quarter)* $33,7897-year (28 quarters)* $51,015 $10,026

1-year (4-quarter)

$23,752

$48,193

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

2013 Q12011 Q12009 Q12007 Q12005 Q12003 Q12001 Q1

Total Equity Accrued to Owner by Year and Quarter of Purchase

Page 58: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Natural Resour 3.8% 109.3 Natural 0.6%

Construction 6.9% 195.3 Constru 0.6%

Manufacturing 9.0% 256.5 Manufac8.7%

Trade/Transpo 20.2% 574.9 Trade/T 18.8%

Information 1.1% 32.6 Informa1.9%

Financial Act 5.0% 141.7 Financi5.7%

Prof. & Busin 15.2% 433 Profess13.8%

Educ. & Heal 12.0% 341.3 Educat 15.6%

Leisure & Ho 9.8% 278.2 Leisure10.5%Other Service 3.5% 100.8 Other S4.0%

Government 13.5% 383.6 89.3% Govern16.1% #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Information Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Educ. & Health Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Service Providing Excluding Government Other Services

Government

Share of Total Employment by Industry

8001,0008,900

10,800

Trade/Transportation/Utilities

Texas

6,600 Natural Resources and Mining Natural Resources/Mining/Construction

5,200

12-month change (2014 - Mar)

36-month change (2014 - Mar)8.8%13.9%

4.4%

Employment has held up and is on an upward trend

Not Comparable

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand…

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area (Mar - 2014)

2,700

10,900

U.S.

U.S.

State Economic Activity Index

Construction

NA

6.7%

7.5%2.9%

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land Area

Goods Producing

7,000 Manufacturing

19,500

Local employment growth is strong compared to other markets

5.2%

6.1%

Current Unemployment Rate (Mar)

Local Economic Outlook Houston U.S.

282,000

80,100

Not Comparable

Unemployment in Houston is better than the national average and

improving

Not Comparable

78,400

36-month Job Change (Mar)

The economy of Texas has outpaced the rest of the nation and improved modestly from last month's 4.19%

change

12-month Job Change (Mar)

2.9%

6,700

NA

NA

12-month Job Change (Feb)

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

1.7%1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

Natural Resources and Mining

3.8% Construction

6.9%Manufacturing

9.0%

Trade/Transportation/U

tilities20.2%

Information1.1%

Financial Activities

5.0%

Prof. & Business Services15.2%

Educ. & Health

Services12.0%

Leisure & Hospitality

9.8%

Other Services

3.5%

Government

13.5%

Natural Resources and Mining

0.6%

Construction

0.6% Manufacturing

8.7%

Trade/Transportation/

Utilities18.8%

Information1.9%Financial

Activities5.7%

Professional &

Business Services13.8%

Educational & Health Services15.6%

Leisure & Hospitality

10.5%

Other Services

4.0%

Government

16.1%

Page 59: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

15.9%

31,991

Single-Family Housing Permits (Mar 2014) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

Production above trend for an extended period of time could cause

prices to moderate as inventory is built

U.S.New Housing Construction

14.2%

not comparable

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Mar 2014 35,088

Houston

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

Local Fundamentals

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures and short-sales now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or distressed sales, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

The current level of construction is 09.7% above the long-term average

Construction is on the rise relative to last year, suggesting that the local

inventory has stabilized

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average(U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 60: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income

Historical Average

U.S.1.31.4

2.72.5

More affordable than most markets20.3%9.1%

The price-to-income ratio is high by historic standards and getting worse

Affordable compared to most marketsHistorical Average 1.3

Affordability

8.1%

U.S.

Ratio for 2014 Q1

Ratio for 2013

Ratio for 2014 Q1Ratio for 2013

14.8%Historically strong, but weaker than the

fourth quarter of 201314.9%

2.6

Houston

Houston

Median Home Price to Income

7.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995

Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2014 Q12013 Q42013 Q32013 Q22013 Q12012 Q42012 Q32012 Q2

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

Page 61: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

The Federal Reserve continued to taper its support for the housing market in the first quarter of 2014 at a pace of $5b fewer GSE MBS and Treasuries purchased each month. Over the prior year the Fed had purchased roughly $45 billion a month of mortgage backed securities from the GSEs and Ginnie Mae as well as 10-year Treasury bonds. These purchased pushed up on MBS prices, which in turn pushed mortgage rates lower. While the taper had a modest initial upward lift on rates, negative economic news, including weak employment gains, a decline in home sales and instability in Europe, more than offset the upward drift. What's more, the Fed still remains the dominant player in the market for MBS as the total volume of MBS has fallen faster than the rate of Fed purchases due to the sharp drop in refinancing in recent quarters. As a result, mortgage rates remained stable in the first quarter. The Fed will continue to taper through the spring which will have a moderate impact on rates so long as the economy remains in low gear and investor demand for agency MBS re-emerges. Eventually, a stronger economy, be it robust or modest in nature, will reemerge and the Fed's purchases will decline to a level that truly reduces it support for the market so rates will rise later this year. NAR is forecasting an average 30-year fixed rate of 4.7% for 2014, but to be 5.1% in the 4th quarter.

The Mortgage Market

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2014 Q1Q32013 Q1Q32012 Q1Q32011 Q1Q32010 Q1Q32009 Q1

30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield

Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013201120092007200520032001199919971995

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

Page 62: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Area · The Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land market is part of region 10 in the NAR governance system, which includes all of Louisiana and Texas.

More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/

Austin County, Brazoria County, Chambers County, Fort Bend County, Galveston County, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, San Jacinto County, and Waller County

The Houston area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area

includes the following counties:

Geographic Coverage for this Report