HOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018 Quarterly Market Report OCTOBER 2018 HOUSTON | AUSTIN | SAN ANTONIO Market Indicators Current Q3 2018 Prior Quarter Q2 2018 Year Ago Q3 2017 Vacant Direct 19.0% 19.3% 18.4% Vacant Total 21.5% 21.8% 20.9% Available Direct 22.9% 22.5% 22.1% Available Total 26.3% 26.4% 26.0% Net Absorption (SF) 789,803 622 -534,206 Leasing Activity (SF) 3,838,085 3,162,290 4,313,622 Construction (SF) 2,666,890 1,611,213 2,470,616 Deliveries (SF) 50,904 83,076 161,523 Avg Asking Rent (Gross) $28.93 $28.32 $27.97 Inventory (SF) 232,519,140 232,468,236 231,208,767 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Millions (SF) Net Absorption Completions Vacancy Supply & Demand www.naipartners.com EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Office market vacancy decreases Houston’s overall vacancy rate decreased to 21.5% in Q3 2018, down 30 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 60 basis points year-over-year. Net absorption ended Q3 2018 in positive territory at 789,803 sq. ft., a level not seen since the oil downturn in the second half of 2014. This was a substantial improvement from the -1,317,087 sq. ft. mark recorded in the first quarter. Direct space was responsible for positive 609,181 sq. ft., and sublease space represented positive 180,622 sq. ft. While overall occupancy in the Houston office market remains below 80%; the current rate of 78.5% represents the market’s highest quarterly level recorded this year. The overall average asking gross rent is up $0.61 at $28.93 per sq. ft. from last quarter, and $0.96 from a year ago, a 3.4% increase. Houston’s economy continues to grow at a healthy pace Employment indicators increased year over year as Houston employment grew 3.1% in August. Construction was the growth leader, adding 20,800 jobs, followed by professional and business services gaining the second-largest number of jobs at 16,800. All of the major industry sectors saw increased growth from August 2017 to August 2018. The unemployment rate in the metro fell slightly to 4.2% in August, the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Houston since February 2008. In comparison, the U.S. and Texas both had unemployment rates of 3.9%. In addition, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil in September averaged $70 per barrel, although there hasn’t been any growth in the U.S. rig count over the past few months.
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HOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018 Quarterly Market Report · Woodlands/Conroe CBD Millions (SF) Pre-Leased Space Available Space 3 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011
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Houston’s overall vacancy rate decreased to 21.5% in Q3 2018, down 30 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 60 basis points year-over-year. Net absorption ended Q3 2018 in positive territory at 789,803 sq. ft., a level not seen since the oil downturn in the second half of 2014. This was a substantial improvement from the -1,317,087 sq. ft. mark recorded in the first quarter. Direct space was responsible for positive 609,181 sq. ft., and sublease space represented positive 180,622 sq. ft. While overall occupancy in the Houston office market remains below 80%; the current rate of 78.5% represents the market’s highest quarterly level recorded this year. The overall average asking gross rent is up $0.61 at $28.93 per sq. ft. from last quarter, and $0.96 from a year ago, a 3.4% increase.
Houston’s economy continues to grow at a healthy pace
Employment indicators increased year over year as Houston employment grew 3.1% in August. Construction was the growth leader, adding 20,800 jobs, followed by professional and business services gaining the second-largest number of jobs at 16,800. All of the major industry sectors saw increased growth from August 2017 to August 2018. The unemployment rate in the metro fell slightly to 4.2% in August, the lowest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Houston since February 2008. In comparison, the U.S. and Texas both had unemployment rates of 3.9%. In addition, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil in September averaged $70 per barrel, although there hasn’t been any growth in the U.S. rig count over the past few months.
“There is still a
great opportunity
for office tenants to
take advantage of
the evolving market
and negotiate
favorable long-term
transactions.”
During Houston’s most recent oil downtown the Energy Corridor was among the submarkets that fared the worst. Now, somewhat more
favorable market conditions along with aggressive landlords willing to make deals have made this area one of the most active in the city—especially when it comes to large transactions.
While activity has not quite returned to the levels recorded earlier this decade, the submarket is starting to show signs of a recovery in 2018. For one, Occidental Petroleum has opted to relocate from Greenway Plaza and acquire Conoco Phillips’ old headquarters in the Energy Corridor. Another recent announcement saw Transocean deciding to lease the entire 300,000 sq. ft. at Enclave Place, on the heels of Schlumberger renewing and expanding to 226,000 sq. ft. at 1430 Enclave Parkway.
Energy Corridor leasing velocity has also been improving during the last two-to-three quarters. In fact, the Energy Corridor and Houston CBD accounted for 63% of leasing activity in the third quarter. This seems to be the first real sign of a market improvement in west Houston and looks to be driven primarily by the rebound in commodity prices.
However, while in this instance one submarket has strengthened, another has taken a significant hit. Greenway Plaza, which remained one of the strongest and most stable submarkets throughout the downturn now finds itself with several large blocks of space coming available. In addition to the news of the Occidental and Transocean move-outs, Sheridan Production will vacate about 72,000 sq. ft. at 9 Greenway Plaza. While it maintained a vacancy rate of under 18% for most of the downturn, Greenway now runs the risk of seeing rates soar to over 25%.
Even though the Houston market is beginning to show signs of stability, these large tenant moves show that there is still a great opportunity for office tenants to take advantage of the evolving market and negotiate favorable long-term transactions.
Broker’s PerspectiveQuarterly Market Report
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HOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018
Michael MannellaAssociate
NAI Partners
MARKET OVERVIEWPositive net absorption in Q3 2018
During the third quarter of 2018, Houston’s office market saw an increase in the number of tenants moving into space compared to previous quarters this year. The aggregate effect of these net occupancy gains was just under 800,000 sq. ft. of positive absorption. That increased demand has led to vacant office space falling to 21.5%, or to put it another way: about 750,000 sq. ft. less of office product lies empty. The amount of total office inventory that is being marketed for lease dropped by 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 26.3%. The distinction between this figure and the vacancy rate reflects expected future move-outs. Space being marketed for sublease represents 8.5 million sq. ft. of the 61.9 million-sq.-ft. total availability figure.
Plans to break ground on a 15-story office building
Office construction is at 2.6 million sq. ft. across nine buildings with 63.6% of the space available for lease. Capitol Tower at 800 Capitol St. is still on schedule for a delivery date in mid-2019. Also under construction is City Place 2, at 1701 City Plaza Dr. in the Woodlands, a 10-story, 326,800-sq.-ft. office building, at 93.9% leased with a scheduled delivery date of October 2018; and City Place 1, at 1700 City Plaza Dr., a 5-story, 149,500-sq.-ft. available office building with a scheduled delivery date of April 2019. In addition, plans to break ground on a 15-story, Class A office building are underway, offering 200,000 sq. ft. of office space and ground-floor retail. It will be located at Westheimer Road and Mid Lane in the Galleria submarket, adjacent to River Oaks District. The development, named Park Place, is scheduled to begin construction in January 2019, with a projected completion date in the second quarter of 2020. The building’s design includes plans to keep 3.7 acres open as green space.
Chevron’s 30-acre campus on the West Loop finds buyer
SLS Properties has purchased the 30-acre vacant Chevron campus along the West Loop at 4800 Fournace Place in Bellaire. The former Chevron site includes two office buildings; a 10-story, 452,000-sq.-ft. office tower and a 95,000-sq.-ft. building. It is reported that plans are to build a four-level parking garage and lease the buildings to multiple tenants. The property is less than two miles south of the Galleria and occupies some Loop 610 frontage. Real Capital Analytics data reports year-to-date office sales volume for 2018 in the Greater Houston area at $2.2 billion, resulting in a year-over-year change of -43.5%. The buyer composition is made up of 46% institutional, 40% private, 8.0% cross-border, and the remaining 6.0% REIT/listed and user/other.
Net Absorption Direct & Sublease
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
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Milli
ons
(SF)
Direct Sublease
Construction by Submarket
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
Midtown
Sugar Land/E Ft Bend
NASA/Clear Lake
FM 1960/Hwy 249
Woodlands/Conroe
CBD
Millions (SF)
Pre-Leased Space Available Space
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
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Direct Sublease
26.3%
Availability Rates
Quarterly Market ReportHOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018
Leasing activity up, NAI Partners Sublease Index down
Leasing activity during the third quarter of 2018 was at 3.8 million sq. ft., up 21.4% quarter over quarter, and dropping 11.0% compared to the amount of activity year-over-year. Class A space fulfilled 2.2 million sq. ft., while Class B space realized 1.5 million sq. ft., with direct space representing 89.3% of all transactions.
The NAI Partners Sublease Index—measured by the amount of sublease space as a percentage of total available space—decreased 60 basis points to 13.9% in September. This is the lowest the Index has measured since it was at 13.3% in Q1 2015—two quarters after the start of the oil downturn when the index registered at 9.4%. Space being marketed for sublease as of Q3 2018 represented 8.5 million sq. ft., compared to this time last quarter at 9.4 million sq. ft., a decrease of about 900,000 sq. ft. More significant is the 30.0% drop in sublease availability since the third quarter of 2016, when it reached its peak of 12.2 million sq. ft.
The decline has resulted from a number of sublease deals signed, including Exelon Corp. inking a 93,813-sq.-ft. deal from Kinder Morgan at 1001 Louisiana St. downtown in August, Kiewit Engineering Group inking a 52,834-sq.-ft. agreement from BASF Corp. at Energy Tower IV in June, and 47,958 sq. ft. of sublease space being taken off the market at 5444 Westheimer Rd. by Fiesta Mart LLC, near the Galleria in March. Other factors contributing to the decrease include space being returned to the landlord through lease expirations, and tenants choosing to hang on to their space and removing sublease listings.
Rain or shine, average asking rents continue to grow
The market saw overall full-service average rates increase $0.61 to $28.93 per sq. ft. from last quarter, and $0.96 from a year ago. Although concessions such as free rent and tenant improvement allowances make posted rents less meaningful as a market indicator, the price of Houston’s office space is climbing noticeably. The highest-quality space, with the best location, and ease of accessibility will generate the highest rents. Asking rates for Class A space in the CBD are at an average of $43.29 per sq. ft. The buildings with the most of available Class A office space in the CBD include 801 Texas Ave., JP Morgan Chase, 2 Houston Center, Capitol Tower, and 1600 Smith St. These three existing buildings, and two under construction comprise 3.8 million sq. ft. with 49.4% or 2.8 million sq. ft. of superior available space for lease. In the third quarter of this year, the average asking full-service gross rate for space in these buildings was $45.37 per sq. ft.
Historical Average Gross Asking Rent
$35.39
$23.86
$21.87
$18.79
$10
$15
$20
$25
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$35
$40
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Class A Direct Class A Sublease Class B Direct Class B Sublease
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HOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018
Total Leasing Activity by Submarket over 150,000 SF - Q3 2018
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Greenway Plaza
Katy Freeway
FM 1960/Hwy 249
Greenspoint/North Belt
Westchase
West Belt
Energy Corridor
Galleria/West Loop
CBD
Thousands (SF)
0
1
2
3
4
5
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J F M A M J J A S O N D
Billio
ns (S
F)
2018 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cumulative Monthly Sales Volume Houston OfficeYear-to-date volume ($): 2,164,929,726, Year-over-year chg: -43.5%Source: Real Capital Analytics
Class A 1,991,833 12.8 14.2 -3,811 -25,062 3,987 51,614 29.65
Class B 4,993,948 22.3 23.3 25,391 83,979 18,181 0 19.93
North Loop West Total 4,484,514 22.6 22.1 -118,036 -171,991 115,011 0 23.89
Class A 1,188,544 41.9 39.7 -111,259 -125,122 46,711 0 26.21
Class B 2,828,990 16.6 16.3 53 -49,524 67,219 0 22.35
Northeast Total 2,319,675 10.7 14.0 55,018 54,432 14,026 0 18.40
Class A 122,923 17.7 17.7 0 10,881 0 0 -
Class B 1,442,313 12.4 15.6 60,197 50,110 11,981 0 18.88
Northwest Total 3,952,543 22.2 26.2 25,313 14,380 47,432 0 17.68
Class A 797,237 44.1 54.5 -5,202 -15,003 8,107 0 19.05
Class B 2,277,443 18.5 20.4 34,066 76,225 39,325 0 16.76
Pearland/South Total 1,806,346 8.2 8.8 -12,488 11,215 1,525 0 27.83
Class A 674,270 4.3 4.3 0 809 0 0 30.10
Class B 881,469 9.0 10.2 2,912 -11,494 1,525 0 27.16
Southwest Total 11,880,547 18.8 23.8 -28,360 -75,962 109,330 0 17.23
Class A 2,055,792 22.8 28.6 -213 49,508 17,764 0 19.55
Class B 7,199,165 20.4 25.9 -47,315 -117,122 76,131 0 16.95
Sugar Land/E Ft Bend 6,776,140 9.9 15.0 99,163 -19,395 126,666 38,599 26.26
Class A 3,614,860 10.5 17.9 30,642 -76,477 25,863 0 26.98
Class B 2,886,562 9.9 12.6 66,460 55,021 98,742 38,599 25.28
West Belt Total 5,326,104 28.2 32.2 179,581 -228,516 308,661 0 26.21
Class A 3,569,700 29.7 35.2 176,413 -171,684 233,347 0 29.43
Class B 1,668,775 26.5 27.4 3,168 -56,832 75,314 0 19.05
Westchase Total 15,588,856 28.0 35.1 -245,897 -497,640 241,060 0 26.07
Class A 8,788,607 30.0 38.0 -92,441 -251,119 141,226 0 29.63
Class B 6,623,339 25.8 31.9 -153,456 -251,308 99,834 0 21.91
Woodlands/Conroe Total 12,776,011 14.6 17.4 64,273 156,319 138,584 498,252 29.65
Class A 6,376,130 19.4 21.4 865 72,608 53,159 476,300 32.46
Class B 5,556,117 10.7 14.2 48,946 52,709 84,175 21,952 26.73
Suburban Total 193,431,852 20.9 25.1 664,675 -302,675 3,155,752 781,965 25.94
Class A 93,226,966 24.7 29.8 461,183 656,809 1,626,711 721,414 30.43
Class B 84,022,732 18.5 21.9 158,352 -923,409 1,388,139 60,551 21.06
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HOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018
Information and data within this report were obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. No warranty or representation is made to guarantee its accuracy.
90
90
90
59
45
Sam H
ouston Tollway
West Park Houston Tollway
Westheimer99
99
99
99
288
6
6
6
Fort Bend Tollway
10
10
10
90
225
59
59
290
290
MARKET OVERVIEWHouston Office Submarkets
1. CBD
2. Bellaire
3. Energy Corridor
4. FM 1960
5. Galleria/West Loop
6. Greenspoint/North Belt
7. Greenway Plaza
8. Gulf Fwy/Pasadena
9. Katy Freeway
10. Katy/Grand Pkwy W
11. Kingwood/Humble
12. Medical Center
13. Midtown
14. NASA/Clear Lake/SE
15. North Loop West
16. Northeast
17. Northwest
18. Pearland/South
19. Southwest
20. Sugar Land/E Ft Bend
21. West Belt
22. Westchase
23. Woodlands/Conroe
Quarterly Market Report
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HOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018
HOUSTON OFFICE | Q3 2018
Quarterly Market ReportOCTOBER 2018
NAI Partners Houston Office 1900 West Loop South, Suite 500 Houston, TX 77027