H i M I f m i HousIng Market outlookDate Released: C d M d H i C p i Talf Cntnts SubSCribe Now! Access CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinormation. View, print, download or subscribe to get market inormation e-mailed to you on the day it is released. CMHC’ s electronic suite onational standardized products is available or ree. Housing market intelligence you can count on Canada Edition Third Quarter 2013 Hsng stats: Housing starts declined earlier in the year, but are expected to remain stable in the second halo2013, beore increasing modestly in 2014, along with improving economic undamentals, including employment and net migration. Total housing starts are expected to decline to 182,800 in 2013 and to increase modestly to 186,600 in 2014. Single housing starts should account or a growing share through 2014. rsals: Existing home sales are expected to decline marginally in 2013, but rise along with economic conditions in 2014. Specically, sales through the Multiple Listing Service ® (MLS ® ) 2 are expected to decline to 448,900 units in 2013, beore seeing an increase to 467,600 in 2014. rsalpcs: The sales-to-new listings ratio is expected to remain well anchored in balanced market conditions over the orecast horizon. Nevertheless, some price growth momentum will see the average MLS ® price grow roughly in line with infation in 2013 and 2014. The average MLS ® price is expected to rise to $374,800 in 2013 and then to $382,800 in 2014. Pvncal sptlght: T otal housing starts are orecast to decline in 2013 in all provinces, except or Alberta. Housing starts are moderating relatively less in the W estern provinces than in Central Canada. In 2014, housing starts are also expected to rebound stronger in Western province s than the national average. 2 National Outlook6 Trends at a Glance 7 British Columbia 8 Alberta 9 Saskatchewan 10 Manitoba 11 Ontario 12 Quebec 13 New Brunswick14 Nova Scotia 15 Prince Edward Island 16 Newoundla nd and Labrador 17 Forecast T ables 2013: 182,800 2014: 186,600 2013: 448,900 2014: 467,600 Housing Starts: Resales: 1 The outlook is subject to uncertain ty. Although point orecast s are presented in this publication, CMHC also presents orecast ranges and risks where appropriat e. The orecasts included in this document refect inormation available as oJuly 25, 2013. 2 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is a registered trademark owne d by the Canadian Real Estate Association. Canadan Hsng Makt: Hsng st ats tstalz, sals tgan mmntm ovv1
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Access CMHCrsquos Market AnalysisCentre publications quickly andconveniently on the Order Desk atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinormation
View print download or subscribeto get market inormation e-mailedto you on the day it is releasedCMHCrsquos electronic suite o nationalstandardized products is availableor ree
Housing market intelligence you can count on
Canada Edition
Third Quarter 2013
Hsng stats Housing startsdeclined earlier in the year but areexpected to remain stable in thesecond hal o 2013 beore increasingmodestly in 2014 along with improving
economic undamentals includingemployment and net migration
Total housing starts are expected todecline to 182800 in 2013 and toincrease modestly to 186600 in 2014Single housing starts should account
or a growing share through 2014
rsals Existing home sales are
expected to decline marginally in2013 but rise along with economic
conditions in 2014 Specically salesthrough the Multiple Listing Servicereg
(MLSreg)2 are expected to decline to448900 units in 2013 beore seeingan increase to 467600 in 2014
rsal pcs The sales-to-newlistings ratio is expected to remainwell anchored in balanced market
conditions over the orecast horizonNevertheless some price growth
momentum will see the averageMLSreg price grow roughly in line
with infation in 2013 and 2014The average MLSreg price is expectedto rise to $374800 in 2013 and then
to $382800 in 2014
Pvncal sptlght Total housingstarts are orecast to decline in
2013 in all provinces except orAlberta Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western provinces
than in Central Canada In 2014housing starts are also expectedto rebound stronger in Westernprovinces than the national average
2 National Outlook
6 Trends at a Glance
7 British Columbia
8 Alberta
9 Saskatchewan
10 Manitoba
11 Ontario
12 Quebec
13 New Brunswick
14 Nova Scotia
15 Prince Edward Island
16 Newoundland and Labrador
17 Forecast Tables
2013 182800
2014 186600
2013 448900
2014 467600
Housing Starts
Resales
1 The outlook is subject to uncertainty Although point orecasts are presented in this publication CMHCalso presents orecast ranges and risks where appropriate The orecasts included in this document refectinormation available as o July 25 2013
2 Multiple Listing Service (MLS) is a registered trademark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association
Canadan Hsng Makt Hsng statst stalz sals t gan mmntmovv1
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
economic conditions relatively lowvacancy rates or rental units andstronger net migration in 2014
It also refects the expectation thatbuilders will want to keep inventorylevels in check despite the large
number o units under construction
The ratio o newly completed andunabsorbed multi-amily housing
units per 10000 population5 stoodat 34 units in the second quartero 2013 barely above the historical
average o 33 units
Multi-amily starts are expectedto range between 102000 and
108600 units in 2013 and between
94300 and 117900 units in 2014
MLS reg sals t dcln n 2013
Existing home sales are expectedto decline in 2013 but rise alongwith economic conditions in 2014
MLSreg sales are expected to berestrained this year partly as a resulto demographic actors including
lower population growth among the25 to 34 year age group which will
moderate growth in the pool o rst-time home buyers Weaker
economic conditions and employmentgrowth over the rst hal o theyear are also expected to curbsales growth this year
In 2014 improving economicconditions and past elevated levels
o net migration are expected tosupport renewed growth in MLSreg sales Following a level o 453372
sales in 2012 CMHCrsquos point orecastsare 448900 MLSreg sales or 2013 and467600 or 2014 MLSreg sales areexpected to be between 431600 and466200 units in 2013 and between
437700 and 497500 units in 2014
balancd makt cndtnsxpctd t pval v fcast hzn
Canadarsquos existing home market hasbeen in balanced market conditionssince 2010 although the sales-to-new
listings ratio an indicator o marketconditions has generally trended closeto the threshold between balancedand sellerrsquos market conditions
throughout this period
Balanced market conditions areexpected to prevail in most local
housing markets leading to an averageMLSreg price that grows roughly in linewith infation in 2013 and 2014
CMHCrsquos point orecast or theaverage MLSreg price is $374800in 2013 and $382800 in 2014
representing increases o 27 percent and 21 per cent respectivelyThe average MLSreg price is orecast tobe between $369100 and $380500
in 2013 and between $371700 and$393900 in 2014
Pvncal smmay
All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013 except or Alberta
The lower housing starts refectexpectations that employment netmigration and gross domestic product(GDP) growth although they remain
supportive o the Canadian housingmarket will not likely sustain the samelevel o housing starts as in 2012
Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western
provinces than in Central CanadaIn 2014 housing starts are alsoexpected to rebound strongerin Western provinces than thenational average
Improving undamentals includingemployment and economic growth
will help support a modest reboundin housing starts in 2014 in BritishColumbia Alberta SaskatchewanOntario Quebec and Nova Scotia
However Manitoba and most o theAtlantic provinces will again see lowerhousing starts in 2014
Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSreg sales in 2013although Alberta and British Columbia
are expected to experience modestgains British Columbia is recoveringrom a decline in sales activity in 2012while Alberta will see sales activity
grow moderately ater strong sales
growth in 2012 In 2014 MLS
reg
salesare expected to increase in all regions
except Prince Edward Island andNew Brunswick
In 2013 it is expected that growth
in average MLSreg home prices willoutpace the rate o infation in thePrairies Ontario and Newoundland
and Labrador Average MLSreg homeprices are expected to be generallyin line with the outlook or infation
in 2014 with the exception o the Prairies which will see pricegrowth above the national average(see pages 7 to 16 or the detailedprovincial outlooks)
Tnds impactngHsng6
GDP gth mansspptv
In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadian economicorecasters growth in GDP is orecast
at 17 per cent in 2013 beore
5 The level o inventories o single-detached units is measured as the ratio o such completed and unabsorbed housing units per 10000 population
6 CMHC uses publicly available inormation and the consensus among major Canadian orecasters regarding economic assumptions
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth
estimate o 17 per cent in 2012
The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up
slightly since the 2013 second quarter
Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth
in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed
investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about
prospects or global demand The
Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same
pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market
activity as the economic outlook strengthens
emplymnt t stayspptv
Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus
among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow
growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate
increases in household incomeand household ormation over the
orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market
Hgh nt mgatn
Canadarsquos strong economic
perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is
orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year
average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014
High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector
New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to
homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or
multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels
o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon
particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada
since 2008
Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn
t ll man l yhstcal standads
In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated
beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market
Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity
over the orecast horizon
Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over
the orecast horizon By the end o
2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the
second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards
According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with
an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is
anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to
375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be
within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic
growth prospects in 2014
Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn
The average rental apartment vacancy
rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is
expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147
Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos
7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in
the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading
to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014
CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in
11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto
Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver
Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than
vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments
Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast
horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental
condominium market
rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including
Mortgage interest rates are still
near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected
by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could
lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and
generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the
medium to longer term
Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit
elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to
some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly
some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could
put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter
term its impact would not be
immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the
prevalence o xed mortgageterms
Recent levels o units under
construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory
o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the
size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts
A more protracted European
crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively
impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or
stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level
o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets
8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
td gc
Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats
Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon
However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand
emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector
incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon
Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries
Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term
Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded
rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with
infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan
centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market
Stck f nand nccpdnts
The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-
expected moderation
9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection
10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
btsh Clma
ovv
British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth
in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and
employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is
expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment
British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth
increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014
An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand
Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other
countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year
As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range
which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11
Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom
11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous
ve-year period The resulting growth
in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year
in Dtal
Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in
2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural
BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment
Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition
rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in
2014 increasing to 18700 units as
demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily
construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom
buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get
under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting
construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market
Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to
increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled
with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices
Prices Expect rising new listings in line
with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg
price in British Columbia is orecast to
edge higher with projected increases
below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast
at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014
Figure 1
11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
economic conditions relatively lowvacancy rates or rental units andstronger net migration in 2014
It also refects the expectation thatbuilders will want to keep inventorylevels in check despite the large
number o units under construction
The ratio o newly completed andunabsorbed multi-amily housing
units per 10000 population5 stoodat 34 units in the second quartero 2013 barely above the historical
average o 33 units
Multi-amily starts are expectedto range between 102000 and
108600 units in 2013 and between
94300 and 117900 units in 2014
MLS reg sals t dcln n 2013
Existing home sales are expectedto decline in 2013 but rise alongwith economic conditions in 2014
MLSreg sales are expected to berestrained this year partly as a resulto demographic actors including
lower population growth among the25 to 34 year age group which will
moderate growth in the pool o rst-time home buyers Weaker
economic conditions and employmentgrowth over the rst hal o theyear are also expected to curbsales growth this year
In 2014 improving economicconditions and past elevated levels
o net migration are expected tosupport renewed growth in MLSreg sales Following a level o 453372
sales in 2012 CMHCrsquos point orecastsare 448900 MLSreg sales or 2013 and467600 or 2014 MLSreg sales areexpected to be between 431600 and466200 units in 2013 and between
437700 and 497500 units in 2014
balancd makt cndtnsxpctd t pval v fcast hzn
Canadarsquos existing home market hasbeen in balanced market conditionssince 2010 although the sales-to-new
listings ratio an indicator o marketconditions has generally trended closeto the threshold between balancedand sellerrsquos market conditions
throughout this period
Balanced market conditions areexpected to prevail in most local
housing markets leading to an averageMLSreg price that grows roughly in linewith infation in 2013 and 2014
CMHCrsquos point orecast or theaverage MLSreg price is $374800in 2013 and $382800 in 2014
representing increases o 27 percent and 21 per cent respectivelyThe average MLSreg price is orecast tobe between $369100 and $380500
in 2013 and between $371700 and$393900 in 2014
Pvncal smmay
All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013 except or Alberta
The lower housing starts refectexpectations that employment netmigration and gross domestic product(GDP) growth although they remain
supportive o the Canadian housingmarket will not likely sustain the samelevel o housing starts as in 2012
Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western
provinces than in Central CanadaIn 2014 housing starts are alsoexpected to rebound strongerin Western provinces than thenational average
Improving undamentals includingemployment and economic growth
will help support a modest reboundin housing starts in 2014 in BritishColumbia Alberta SaskatchewanOntario Quebec and Nova Scotia
However Manitoba and most o theAtlantic provinces will again see lowerhousing starts in 2014
Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSreg sales in 2013although Alberta and British Columbia
are expected to experience modestgains British Columbia is recoveringrom a decline in sales activity in 2012while Alberta will see sales activity
grow moderately ater strong sales
growth in 2012 In 2014 MLS
reg
salesare expected to increase in all regions
except Prince Edward Island andNew Brunswick
In 2013 it is expected that growth
in average MLSreg home prices willoutpace the rate o infation in thePrairies Ontario and Newoundland
and Labrador Average MLSreg homeprices are expected to be generallyin line with the outlook or infation
in 2014 with the exception o the Prairies which will see pricegrowth above the national average(see pages 7 to 16 or the detailedprovincial outlooks)
Tnds impactngHsng6
GDP gth mansspptv
In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadian economicorecasters growth in GDP is orecast
at 17 per cent in 2013 beore
5 The level o inventories o single-detached units is measured as the ratio o such completed and unabsorbed housing units per 10000 population
6 CMHC uses publicly available inormation and the consensus among major Canadian orecasters regarding economic assumptions
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth
estimate o 17 per cent in 2012
The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up
slightly since the 2013 second quarter
Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth
in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed
investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about
prospects or global demand The
Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same
pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market
activity as the economic outlook strengthens
emplymnt t stayspptv
Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus
among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow
growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate
increases in household incomeand household ormation over the
orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market
Hgh nt mgatn
Canadarsquos strong economic
perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is
orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year
average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014
High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector
New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to
homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or
multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels
o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon
particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada
since 2008
Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn
t ll man l yhstcal standads
In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated
beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market
Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity
over the orecast horizon
Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over
the orecast horizon By the end o
2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the
second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards
According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with
an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is
anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to
375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be
within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic
growth prospects in 2014
Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn
The average rental apartment vacancy
rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is
expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147
Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos
7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in
the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading
to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014
CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in
11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto
Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver
Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than
vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments
Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast
horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental
condominium market
rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including
Mortgage interest rates are still
near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected
by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could
lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and
generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the
medium to longer term
Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit
elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to
some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly
some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could
put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter
term its impact would not be
immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the
prevalence o xed mortgageterms
Recent levels o units under
construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory
o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the
size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts
A more protracted European
crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively
impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or
stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level
o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets
8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
td gc
Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats
Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon
However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand
emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector
incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon
Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries
Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term
Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded
rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with
infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan
centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market
Stck f nand nccpdnts
The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-
expected moderation
9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection
10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
btsh Clma
ovv
British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth
in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and
employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is
expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment
British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth
increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014
An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand
Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other
countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year
As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range
which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11
Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom
11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous
ve-year period The resulting growth
in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year
in Dtal
Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in
2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural
BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment
Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition
rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in
2014 increasing to 18700 units as
demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily
construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom
buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get
under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting
construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market
Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to
increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled
with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices
Prices Expect rising new listings in line
with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg
price in British Columbia is orecast to
edge higher with projected increases
below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast
at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014
Figure 1
11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
economic conditions relatively lowvacancy rates or rental units andstronger net migration in 2014
It also refects the expectation thatbuilders will want to keep inventorylevels in check despite the large
number o units under construction
The ratio o newly completed andunabsorbed multi-amily housing
units per 10000 population5 stoodat 34 units in the second quartero 2013 barely above the historical
average o 33 units
Multi-amily starts are expectedto range between 102000 and
108600 units in 2013 and between
94300 and 117900 units in 2014
MLS reg sals t dcln n 2013
Existing home sales are expectedto decline in 2013 but rise alongwith economic conditions in 2014
MLSreg sales are expected to berestrained this year partly as a resulto demographic actors including
lower population growth among the25 to 34 year age group which will
moderate growth in the pool o rst-time home buyers Weaker
economic conditions and employmentgrowth over the rst hal o theyear are also expected to curbsales growth this year
In 2014 improving economicconditions and past elevated levels
o net migration are expected tosupport renewed growth in MLSreg sales Following a level o 453372
sales in 2012 CMHCrsquos point orecastsare 448900 MLSreg sales or 2013 and467600 or 2014 MLSreg sales areexpected to be between 431600 and466200 units in 2013 and between
437700 and 497500 units in 2014
balancd makt cndtnsxpctd t pval v fcast hzn
Canadarsquos existing home market hasbeen in balanced market conditionssince 2010 although the sales-to-new
listings ratio an indicator o marketconditions has generally trended closeto the threshold between balancedand sellerrsquos market conditions
throughout this period
Balanced market conditions areexpected to prevail in most local
housing markets leading to an averageMLSreg price that grows roughly in linewith infation in 2013 and 2014
CMHCrsquos point orecast or theaverage MLSreg price is $374800in 2013 and $382800 in 2014
representing increases o 27 percent and 21 per cent respectivelyThe average MLSreg price is orecast tobe between $369100 and $380500
in 2013 and between $371700 and$393900 in 2014
Pvncal smmay
All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013 except or Alberta
The lower housing starts refectexpectations that employment netmigration and gross domestic product(GDP) growth although they remain
supportive o the Canadian housingmarket will not likely sustain the samelevel o housing starts as in 2012
Housing starts are moderatingrelatively less in the Western
provinces than in Central CanadaIn 2014 housing starts are alsoexpected to rebound strongerin Western provinces than thenational average
Improving undamentals includingemployment and economic growth
will help support a modest reboundin housing starts in 2014 in BritishColumbia Alberta SaskatchewanOntario Quebec and Nova Scotia
However Manitoba and most o theAtlantic provinces will again see lowerhousing starts in 2014
Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSreg sales in 2013although Alberta and British Columbia
are expected to experience modestgains British Columbia is recoveringrom a decline in sales activity in 2012while Alberta will see sales activity
grow moderately ater strong sales
growth in 2012 In 2014 MLS
reg
salesare expected to increase in all regions
except Prince Edward Island andNew Brunswick
In 2013 it is expected that growth
in average MLSreg home prices willoutpace the rate o infation in thePrairies Ontario and Newoundland
and Labrador Average MLSreg homeprices are expected to be generallyin line with the outlook or infation
in 2014 with the exception o the Prairies which will see pricegrowth above the national average(see pages 7 to 16 or the detailedprovincial outlooks)
Tnds impactngHsng6
GDP gth mansspptv
In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadian economicorecasters growth in GDP is orecast
at 17 per cent in 2013 beore
5 The level o inventories o single-detached units is measured as the ratio o such completed and unabsorbed housing units per 10000 population
6 CMHC uses publicly available inormation and the consensus among major Canadian orecasters regarding economic assumptions
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth
estimate o 17 per cent in 2012
The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up
slightly since the 2013 second quarter
Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth
in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed
investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about
prospects or global demand The
Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same
pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market
activity as the economic outlook strengthens
emplymnt t stayspptv
Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus
among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow
growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate
increases in household incomeand household ormation over the
orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market
Hgh nt mgatn
Canadarsquos strong economic
perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is
orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year
average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014
High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector
New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to
homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or
multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels
o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon
particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada
since 2008
Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn
t ll man l yhstcal standads
In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated
beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market
Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity
over the orecast horizon
Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over
the orecast horizon By the end o
2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the
second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards
According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with
an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is
anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to
375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be
within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic
growth prospects in 2014
Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn
The average rental apartment vacancy
rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is
expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147
Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos
7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in
the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading
to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014
CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in
11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto
Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver
Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than
vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments
Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast
horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental
condominium market
rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including
Mortgage interest rates are still
near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected
by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could
lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and
generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the
medium to longer term
Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit
elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to
some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly
some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could
put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter
term its impact would not be
immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the
prevalence o xed mortgageterms
Recent levels o units under
construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory
o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the
size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts
A more protracted European
crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively
impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or
stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level
o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets
8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
td gc
Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats
Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon
However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand
emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector
incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon
Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries
Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term
Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded
rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with
infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan
centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market
Stck f nand nccpdnts
The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-
expected moderation
9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection
10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
btsh Clma
ovv
British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth
in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and
employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is
expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment
British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth
increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014
An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand
Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other
countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year
As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range
which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11
Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom
11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous
ve-year period The resulting growth
in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year
in Dtal
Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in
2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural
BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment
Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition
rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in
2014 increasing to 18700 units as
demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily
construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom
buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get
under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting
construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market
Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to
increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled
with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices
Prices Expect rising new listings in line
with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg
price in British Columbia is orecast to
edge higher with projected increases
below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast
at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014
Figure 1
11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
strengthening to 24 per cent in2014 This compares to GDP growth
estimate o 17 per cent in 2012
The orecast or Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 was revised up
slightly since the 2013 second quarter
Housing Market Outlook largelyrefecting upward revisions to growth
in industrial production Exportsare projected to gather momentumcoupled with continued growth inconsumer spending Business xed
investment is expected to strengthenas the recovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more rmly entrenchedproviding greater condence about
prospects or global demand The
Canadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the same
pace as in 2012 and will thereoreremain supportive o the housingmarket In 2014 GDP growth willincrease its support to housing market
activity as the economic outlook strengthens
emplymnt t stayspptv
Employment increased by 12 per centin 2012 Based on the consensus
among prominent Canadianorecasters CMHC expects thatemployment will grow by 14 per centin 2013 and in 2014 Despite the slow
growth in employment year-to-dateemployment growth is anticipated toimprove in the second hal o the yearand is expected to sustain moderate
increases in household incomeand household ormation over the
orecast horizon This will in turnsupport the housing market
Hgh nt mgatn
Canadarsquos strong economic
perormance relative to its peers isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel o immigrants (net internationalmigration) Total net migration is
orecast to reach 259100 people in2013 up rom an estimated 257695in 2012 and above the 10-year
average o about 238800 peopleNet migration is expected to increaseurther to 262450 in 2014
High levels o net migrationby historical standards will helpsupport Canadarsquos housing sector
New migrants typically enter therental market beore moving to
homeownership Migration is expectedto be supportive o demand or
multi-amily housing more specicallypurpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units over theprojection horizon The high levels
o net migration in the last ew yearswill continue to support multi-amilyhousing over the orecast horizon
particularly rom the relatively highernumbers o migrants to Canada
since 2008
Mtgag ats t s mdstand gadal ncass latn th fcast hzn
t ll man l yhstcal standads
In line with the consensus amongprivate-sector orecasters increasesin the Target Overnight Rate by theBank o Canada are not anticipated
beore mid-2014 This interest rateoutlook has not changed rom the2013 second quarter Housing Market
Outlook and will continue to besupportive o housing market activity
over the orecast horizon
Mortgage rates are expected toincrease gradually and steadily over
the orecast horizon By the end o
2014 mortgage rates are orecastto be somewhat higher than in the
second quarter o 2013 Howeverthese rates will remain low byhistorical standards
According to CMHCrsquos base casescenario or 2013 the one-yearmortgage rate is orecast to be within300 per cent to 350 per cent with
an average o 312 per cent whilethe ve-year posted mortgage rate is
anticipated to be within 500 per centto 550 per cent with an average o 525 per cent For 2014 the one-yearposted mortgage rate is expected torise and be in the 325 per cent to
375 per cent range with an averageo 344 per cent while the ve-yearposted mortgage rate is orecast to be
within 525 per cent to 600 per centwith an average o 562 per centconsistent with higher economic
growth prospects in 2014
Vacancy ats t man stalv th fcast hzn
The average rental apartment vacancy
rate in Canadarsquos 35 major centresis expected to decline slightly to25 per cent by October 2013 rom26 per cent in October 2012 It is
expected to remain at this level inOctober 20147
Most centres saw higher vacancyrates in October 2012 than inOctober 2011 according to CMHCrsquos
7 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in
the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading
to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014
CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in
11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto
Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver
Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than
vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments
Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast
horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental
condominium market
rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including
Mortgage interest rates are still
near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected
by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could
lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and
generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the
medium to longer term
Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit
elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to
some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly
some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could
put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter
term its impact would not be
immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the
prevalence o xed mortgageterms
Recent levels o units under
construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory
o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the
size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts
A more protracted European
crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively
impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or
stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level
o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets
8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
td gc
Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats
Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon
However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand
emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector
incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon
Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries
Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term
Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded
rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with
infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan
centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market
Stck f nand nccpdnts
The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-
expected moderation
9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection
10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
btsh Clma
ovv
British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth
in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and
employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is
expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment
British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth
increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014
An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand
Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other
countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year
As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range
which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11
Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom
11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous
ve-year period The resulting growth
in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year
in Dtal
Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in
2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural
BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment
Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition
rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in
2014 increasing to 18700 units as
demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily
construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom
buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get
under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting
construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market
Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to
increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled
with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices
Prices Expect rising new listings in line
with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg
price in British Columbia is orecast to
edge higher with projected increases
below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast
at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014
Figure 1
11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
all 2012 Rental Market SurveyImproving economic conditions in
the second hal o 2013 and 2014are expected in part to providegreater support to rental demandover the orecast horizon leading
to the slight decline in vacancyrates that is expected in 2013and 2014
CMHCrsquos all 2012 Rental MarketSurvey also covered condominiumapartments oered or rent in
11 major centres8 Vacancy rates orrental condominiums essentially heldsteady in most centres rom October2011 including Montreal Toronto
Edmonton Winnipeg and Vancouver
Typically the vacancy rates or rentalcondominiums are higher than
vacancy rates or purpose-builtrental apartments
Low vacancy rates o purpose-builtrental apartments over the orecast
horizon are expected to helpsupport multiple-unit housingconstruction particularly in 2014through the expansion o the rental
condominium market
rsks t th otlk This outlook is subject to somerisks including
Mortgage interest rates are still
near their historical low Shouldmortgage interest rates risesooner or aster than expected
by potential buyers and existingmortgage holders this could
lead to a lower level o activityin Canadarsquos housing market and
generate some nancial risksor the more heavily indebtedhomeowner households in the
medium to longer term
Despite recent improvements inthe growth o household credit
elevated levels o household debtand house prices in some urbancentres have made the countryrsquoseconomy more vulnerable to
some economic shocks I interestrates or unemployment were toincrease sharply and signicantly
some o the more heavily indebtedhouseholds could be orced toliquidate some o their assetsincluding their home This could
put downward pressure on houseprices and more generally onhousing market activity Althoughthis risk can arise in the shorter
term its impact would not be
immediate on most indebtedhouseholds because o the
prevalence o xed mortgageterms
Recent levels o units under
construction may impact theinventory o completed andunabsorbed units in the short tomedium term Should the inventory
o new units increase inordinatelybuilders may delay or reduce the
size o some construction projectsThis could lead to a sharper-than-expected moderation in unit starts
A more protracted European
crisis or a more muted recoveryin the US or weaker growth inemerging markets could negatively
impact Canadarsquos net exports andthe countryrsquos overall economicoutlook A stronger-than-expectedUS economic recovery or
stronger growth in emergingcountries could positively impactCanadian economic growthcontributing to a higher level
o activity in Canadarsquos housingmarkets
8 CMHCrsquos Rental Market Survey covers condominium apartments oered or rent in Victoria Vancouver Calgary Edmonton Regina Saskatoon Winnipeg TorontoOttawa Montreacuteal and Queacutebec
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
td gc
Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats
Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon
However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand
emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector
incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon
Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries
Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term
Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded
rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with
infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan
centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market
Stck f nand nccpdnts
The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-
expected moderation
9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection
10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
btsh Clma
ovv
British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth
in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and
employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is
expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment
British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth
increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014
An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand
Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other
countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year
As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range
which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11
Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom
11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous
ve-year period The resulting growth
in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year
in Dtal
Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in
2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural
BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment
Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition
rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in
2014 increasing to 18700 units as
demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily
construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom
buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get
under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting
construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market
Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to
increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled
with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices
Prices Expect rising new listings in line
with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg
price in British Columbia is orecast to
edge higher with projected increases
below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast
at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014
Figure 1
11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
td gc
Ky facts and th ffcts n hsng stats
Mtgag ats Mortgage rates are expected to increase gradually and steadily over the orecast horizon
However they will remain low by historical standards Current mortgage rates are supportiveo housing demand
emplymnt The labour market has gotten o to a slower than expected start in 2013 with employmentgrowing in the rst six months at a little over hal the rate in 2011 and 2012 Neverthelessemployment is expected to improve during the course o the year and is orecast to grow14 per cent in both 2013 and 2014 which will support Canadarsquos housing sector
incm Growth in incomes is expected to continue albeit at a moderate pace on account o modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets As a result income growth will remainsupportive o housing demand over the orecast horizon
Nt mgatn Canadarsquos economy is expected to continue to perorm well relative to its peer countries
Canada should thereore continue to attract a high level o immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the orecast horizon which will support housing demand in the medium tolong term
Pplatn9 Lower population growth among the 25 to 34 year age group is expected to lead to a slightmoderation in demand rom rst-time home buyers this year and over the longer termFurthermore Canadarsquos low birth rate should lessen the demand or additional housing stock inthe medium and longer term Population aging however is likely to impact the type and tenureo housing demanded
rsal makt Resale market conditions or 2013 and 2014 are expected to be balanced in most local marketsNevertheless some price momentum will see the average MLSreg price grow roughly in line with
infation in 2013 and 2014Vacancy ats10 The average vacancy rates o purpose-built rental apartments across Canadarsquos metropolitan
centres is expected to decline slightly to 25 per cent in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014Lower vacancy rates or purpose-built rental apartments over the orecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction particularly in 2014 through the expansiono the rental condominium market
Stck f nand nccpdnts
The stock o unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter o 2013indicating continued strength in demand or newly completed homes In addition the ratio o thestock o unabsorbed new units to population a simple gauge to assess potential over-building isclose to the historical average Nevertheless should the inventory increase inordinately buildersmay delay or reduce the size o some housing projects This could lead to a sharper-than-
expected moderation
9 Demographic orecasts are based on Statistics Canadarsquos medium-growth population projection
10 Rental vacancy rates are or purpose-built rental apartments and do not cover condominium units that are oered up or rent by owners on the secondaryrental market
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
btsh Clma
ovv
British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth
in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and
employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is
expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment
British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth
increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014
An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand
Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other
countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year
As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range
which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11
Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom
11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous
ve-year period The resulting growth
in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year
in Dtal
Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in
2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural
BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment
Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition
rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in
2014 increasing to 18700 units as
demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily
construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom
buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get
under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting
construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market
Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to
increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled
with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices
Prices Expect rising new listings in line
with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg
price in British Columbia is orecast to
edge higher with projected increases
below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast
at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014
Figure 1
11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
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Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
btsh Clma
ovv
British Columbiarsquos economy is orecastto expand 19 per cent in 2013 and25 per cent in 2014 slightly ahead o the national average Modest growth
in consumer spending and businessinvestment are expected to contributeto economic growth Population and
employment growth are orecast tohelp increase consumer spendingwhile a weaker Canadian dollar andincreasing demand rom the US is
expected to boost provincial exportsGrowth in exports will supportbusiness investment
British Columbiarsquos labour marketconditions are orecast to improvein 2014 with employment growth
increasing to 15 per cent next yearrom 04 per cent in 2013 This yearrsquosshit to higher levels o ull-timeemployment will carry over into 2014
An increase in ull-time employmentwill support wage growth andhomeownership demand
Demographic trends support arising level o housing demand inthe province Migration rom other
countries partly oset by peoplemoving to other provinces isexpected to add 38000 people thisyear and 41300 people next year
As well population projections byage group indicate a larger number o people in the 25 to 44 year age range
which has traditionally contributedto rst-time home buyer demand11
Population growth in this age rangeis projected to increase rom
11 per cent in 2012 to 18 per centby 2017 up rom less than one percent per annum during the previous
ve-year period The resulting growth
in population combined with strongeremployment growth will push housingsales and starts higher next year
in Dtal
Single Starts Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9000 units in
2013 and 9900 units in 2014 Growthin demand or new single-detachedhomes will shit rom urban to rural
BC in 2014 refecting both lowerland costs and rising resource sectoremployment
Multiple Starts British Columbiarsquosmulti-amily starts will ease slightlyto 18100 units in 2013 due to risinginventories and increased competition
rom a well-supplied resale market orcondominium apartments Multi-amilystarts are orecast to edge higher in
2014 increasing to 18700 units as
demand strengthens and inventorieso new completed and unoccupiedunits are drawn lower Multi-amily
construction in the province has beensupported by low vacancy rates inthe rental sector and demand rom
buyers seeking less costly and lowermaintenance alternatives to single-detached housing Expect smallerphased projects to continue to get
under way in housing markets outsideo Vancouver with an increase inlarger multi-amily projects starting
construction in Vancouver includingseveral intended or the rental market
Resales MLSreg sales are orecast to
increase to 70100 in 2013 and 77000in 2014 Demand will be broad-baseduelled by rising employment coupled
with low interest rates ample supplyand stable prices
Prices Expect rising new listings in line
with stronger existing home sales tokeep price growth in check this yearand next The average residential MLSreg
price in British Columbia is orecast to
edge higher with projected increases
below the pace o consumer priceinfation The average price is orecast
at $518300 in 2013 and $523200in 2014
British Columbia Starts (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 27100 or 2013 and 28600 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 26400-27800 units or 2013 and 25700-31500 or 2014
Figure 1
11 BC Stats population projections show annual growth o the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 18700 persons this year and next Source PEOPLE2012 CMHC calculations
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
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Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Pnc edad
island
ovv
Prince Edward Islandrsquos economic
growth is orecast at 15 per cent in2013 and 13 per cent in 2014 Recent
declines in the Canadian dollar willbenet key sectors including tourismaerospace agriculture and seaoodprocessing thereby supporting the
prospects or manuacturing andexports
Improving provincial labour marketconditions to the end o the secondquarter o 2013 continue to support
the stronger outlook or employmentgrowth o 25 per cent in 2013 witha smaller rise o 10 per cent growthin 2014 as economic activity sotensA similar pattern in the growth
o the labour orce in 2013 o 20 per cent and 10 per cent in2014 will leave the unemployment
rate close to 110 per cent overthe orecast horizon
The economic prospects or the
province will be held back by slowerpopulation growth and rising out-migration compared to 2012
Net-migration is expected to remainmoderately negative and close to-300 per year in 2013 and 2014as international migration o about
500 persons per year is oset bya rise in interprovincial migrationoutfows o approximately -800 peryear over the orecast period
in Dtal
Single Starts The slowdown in
population growth and rising out-migration will result in single startsremaining low at 315 units in 2013with a urther drop to 290 units
in 2014
Multiple Starts The increase in thenumber o new multiple units beingstarted since 2009 has resulted in a
continuing rise in the rental vacancyrate since 2010 It is expected thatthe vacancy rate will continue to rise
in 2013 and 2014 It is expected thatdevelopers will begin to pause uturedevelopments in order to allow themarket time to absorb the supply
o new units As a result multiplestarts will moderate to 485 units in2013 rom 554 units in 2012 beoredeclining urther to 410 units in 2014
Resales Ater three years o positivegrowth a pullback in migration will
impact housing demand in 2013 and2014 MLSreg sales are orecast to be1425 units in 2013 beore decliningurther to 1350 units in 2014
Prices The resulting weakness in salesactivity both this year and next will
also aect prices as weaker demandand rising number o listings willsoten seller expectations The averageMLSreg sales price is expected to be
$155000 in 2013 and $156500in 2014
Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 800 or 2013 and 700 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is
refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 715-885 units or 2013 and 530-870 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
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To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Nfndland and
Laad
ovv
Newoundland and Labrador will see
a rebound in economic perormancein 2013 as GDP is expected to rise
to 35 per cent although growth isexpected to moderate to 20 percent in 2014 The rise in GDP in 2013is mainly due to the rebound in oil
production and rising oil prices rom2012 The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byincreased energy mining and related
private sector investment activity
One risk to the current outlook isthe eect o continued weakness
in iron ore prices on expecteddevelopment currently in theplanning stages or Labrador
Newoundland and Labrador labourmarket conditions will remain stablein 2013 as employment growth
is projected to rise 20 per centthis year compared to growth o 23 per cent in 2012 In 2014 the
rise in growth will be reduced to12 per cent as a result o a moderatepullback in private sector investmentactivity A slowdown in the growtho the labour orce will leave the
unemployment rate at 114 per centover the next two years
Over the previous two years theprovince has benetted rom theaddition o about 1200 peopleA similar number is expected over
the orecast horizon as the provincersquospopulation is orecast to grow under02 per cent per year Population
growth will remain weak over theorecast period as interprovincialmigration which turned negative in
2012 is not expected to turn positiveuntil 2014 International migrationwill continue to add to populationgrowth in both 2013 and 2014 but
the number o people expected willbe below levels recorded over the2011-2012 period
in Dtal
Single Starts The continued weak butsteady population growth in 2013 and
2014 coupled with a weaker outlook or employment in 2013 and 2014 willcontinue to soten the level o single
starts or the remainder o 2013 and2014 Although the rise in incomeshas been osetting the eect o higherprices rst-time home buyer activity
is also expected to weaken resultingin the provincial single-detachedhousing market declining to 2250single starts in 2013 and 2100 single
starts in 2014
Multiple Starts Multiple unit
construction is expected to declineas condominium and row starts areexpected to slow over the orecast
period13 Multiple unit constructionis expected to reach 800 units in2013 and 2014
Resales Although wage growthremains strong in Newoundland andLabrador there are expectations or a
decline in sales in 2013 as a result o a sotening outlook or employmentMLSreg sales in 2013 are expected toregister 4000 beore beginning to
improve to 4100 sales in 2014 as net
migration increases
Prices Ater several years o strongprice growth average MLSreg houseprices growth began to moderate in2011 and 2012 With inventory levels
elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilater 2014 price growth is expectedto continue to moderate Average
MLSreg house prices are expected tobe $282000 in 2013 and $285000
in 2014
Newfoundland and Labrador Starts (000s)
00
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
The point estimate or provincial total housing starts is 3050 or 2013 and 2900 or 2014 Economic
uncertainty is refected by the current range o orecasts which varies rom 2700-3400 units or 2013 and
2200-3600 or 2014
Figure 10
13 The current declines are also partially due to a shit in the measurement o how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013 A house with a basement apartment would have been two multiples prior to the end o 2012 As o the beginning o 2013 the house with a basement will bea single and a multiple
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
Canada Starts (000s)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)
Singles MultiplesSource CMHC (F) Forecast
Figure 11
The point estimate or total housing starts is 182800 or 2013 and 186600 or 2014 Economic uncertainty is refectedby the current range o orecasts which varies rom 177100-188500 units or 2013 and 165600-207600 or 2014
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
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For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
3 6 0 6
3 4 8 8
3 8 8 5
3 0 5 0
2 9 0 0
2 7 2 6
3 0 6 9
3 4 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 8 0 0
3 3 0 0
3 0 0 0
2 5 0 0
1 8 0
- 3 3
1 1 4
- 2 1 5
- 4 9
- 2 4 7
1 2 6
1 0 8
- 1 1 8
- 6 7
1 7 9
- 9 1
- 1 6 7
P E I
7 5 6
9 4 0
9 4 1
8 0 0
7 0 0
9 2 0
7 5 7
7 7 5
7 5 5
6 5 0
7 4 0
7 4 5
6 6 5
- 1 3 8
2 4 3
0 1
- 1 5 0
- 1 2 5
- 4 0
- 1 7 7
2 4
- 2 6
- 1 3 9
1 3 8
0 7
- 1 0 7
N S
4 3 0 9
4 6 4 4
4 5 2 2
4 0 2 5
4 0 7 5
4 6 1 1
3 4 5 6
4 1 5 0
3 8 5 0
3 6 0 0
4 5 0 0
4 3 0 0
3 9 0 0
2 5 3
7 8
- 2 6
- 1 1 0
1 2
- 1 1 0
- 2 5 0
2 0 1
- 7 2
- 6 5
2 5 0
- 4 4
- 9 3
N B
4 1 0 1
3 4 5 2
3 2 9 9
2 5 0 0
2 1 5 0
3 4 2 9
2 9 0 4
1 9 0 0
1 7 7 5
1 7 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 5 0 0
2 0 0 0
1 6 5
-
1 5 8
- 4 4
- 2 4 2
- 1 4 0
1 6 3
- 1 5 3
- 3 4 6
- 6 6
- 4 2
4 1 2
4 2
- 2 0 0
Q U E
5 1 3 6 3
4 8 3 8 7
4 7 3 6 7
3 8 5 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 5 9 2 6
3 8 1 0 4
3 9 8 0 0
4 0 0 0 0
3 9 7 5 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
3 9 8 0 0
1 8 3
- 5 8
- 2 1
- 1 8 7
3 4
- 2 0 3
6 1
4 5
0 5
- 0 6
0 1
0 0
0 0
O N T
6 0 4 3 3
6 7 8 2 1
7 6 7 4 2
5 8 6 0 0
5 9 4 0 0
5 6 7 1 5
5 7 9 3 1
5 9 4 5 0
6 0 2 5 0
6 0 8 0 0
6 0 2 0 0
5 9 0 0 0
5 7 7 0 0
2 0 0
1 2 2
1 3 2
- 2 3 6
1 4
- 1 8 2
2 1
2 6
1 3
0 9
- 1 0
- 2 0
- 2 2
M A N
5 8 8 8
6 0 8 3
7 2 4 2
7 1 0 0
7 0 0 0
6 8 1 0
7 3 8 2
7 0 0 0
7 1 0 0
7 1 0 0
6 8 0 0
6 9 0 0
7 0 0 0
4 1 1
3 3
1 9 1
- 2 0
- 1 4
6 1
8 4
- 5 2
1 4
0 0
- 4 2
1 5
1 4
S A S K
5 9 0 7
7 0 3 1
9 9 6 8
7 5 0 0
7 7 0 0
6 5 5 8
7 4 9 7
7 9 0 0
8 0 0 0
7 6 0 0
7 9 0 0
7 7 0 0
7 6 0 0
5 2 8
1 9 0
4 1 8
- 2 4 8
2 7
- 4 0 7
1 4 3
5 4
1 3
- 5 0
3 9
- 2 5
- 1 3
A L T A
2 7 0 8 8
2 5 7 0 4
3 3 3 9 6
3 3 8 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 3 7 2 5
3 9 1 6 2
3 1 4 0 0
3 0 9 0 0
3 4 0 0 0
3 4 4 0 0
3 4 2 0 0
3 5 0 0 0
3 3 5
- 5 1
2 9 9
1 2
1 8
- 2 2
1 6 1
- 1 9 8
- 1 6
1 0 0
1 2
- 0 6
2 3
B C
2 6 4 7 9
2 6 4 0 0
2 7 4 6 5
2 7 1 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 4 0 3 6
2 5 2 7 3
2 9 5 0 0
2 9 5 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 6 0 0
2 8 7 0 0
2 8 3 0 0
6 4 7
- 0 3
4 0
- 1 3
5 5
- 1 8
5 1
1 6 7
0 0
- 2 7
- 0 3
0 3
- 1 4
C A N
1 8 9 9 3 0
1 9 3 9 5 0
2 1 4 8 2 7
1 8 2 8 0 0
1 8 6 6 0 0
1 7 5 4 5 6
1 8 5 5 3 5
1 8 5 3 0 0
1 8 5 1 0 0
1 8 6 7 0 0
1 8 8 6 0 0
1
8 6 8 0 0
1 8 4 5 0 0
2 7 4
2 1
1 0 8
- 1 4 9
2 1
- 1 3 8
5 7
- 0 1
- 0 1
0 8
1 0
- 1 0
- 1 3
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
1 7 7 1 0 0 - 1
8 8 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 6 5 6
0 0 - 2
0 7 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u
a l r a t e s
T a
b l e 1 T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s
( u n i t s
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E C M H C
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l t o t a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 1 8 2 8
0 0 u n
i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 1 8 6 6
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
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The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
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For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
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For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 9 4 1
2 6 1 2
2 5 2 3
2 2 5 0
2 1 0 0
2 3 1 9
2 4 7 6
2 2 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
2 4 0 0
2 2 0 0
1 8 0 0
1 2 9
- 1
1 2
- 3 4
- 1 0 8
- 6 7
- 5 9
6 8
- 1 1 1
- 9 1
0 0
2 0 0
- 8 3
- 1 8 2
P E I
3 9 6
4 3 1
3 8 7
3 1 5
2 9 0
3 2 3
3 5 1
3 0 0
2 9 0
2 7 5
2 9 0
3 1 0
2 9 0
- 7 9
8 8
- 1 0 2
- 1 8 6
- 7 9
- 1 2 9
8 7
- 1 4 5
- 3 3
- 5 2
5 5
6 9
- 6 5
N S
2 3 9 2
2 0 4 5
2 2 5 8
1 8 4 0
1 9 7 5
1 5 8 0
1 6 1 5
2 1 0 0
2 0 5 0
1 8 0 0
2 1 0 0
2 1 0 0
1 9 0 0
9 1
- 1
4 5
1 0 4
- 1 8 5
7 3
- 3 0 6
2 2
3 0 0
- 2 4
- 1 2 2
1 6 7
0 0
- 9 5
N B
2 0 6 8
1 8 2 3
1 6 9 7
1 2 0 0
1 1 0 0
1 2 8 6
1 1 5 9
1 1 5 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 2 0 0
1 0 0 0
- 4 0
- 1
1 8
- 6 9
- 2 9 3
- 8 3
- 8 5
- 9 9
- 0 8
4 3
- 1 6 7
2 0 0
0 0
- 1 6 7
Q U E
1 9 5 4 9
1 6 5 5 4
1 6 0 5 9
1 3 7 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 3 1 1 7
1 3 7 4 2
1 3 8 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1
4 1 0 0
1 4 1 0 0
1 1 5
- 1
5 3
- 3 0
- 1 4 7
2 9
- 1 3 8
4 8
0 4
1 4
0 0
0 7
0 0
0 0
O N T
2 8 0 8 9
2 6 8 8 4
2 5 5 6 7
2 3 0 0 0
2 3 9 0 0
2 3 1 0 1
2 3 2 2 8
2 2 7 0 0
2 3 0 0 0
2 4 3 0 0
2 4 2 0 0
2
4 0 0 0
2 3 2 0 0
2 4 1
-
4 3
- 4 9
- 1 0 0
3 9
- 6 8
0 5
- 2 3
1 3
5 7
- 0 4
- 0 8
- 3 3
M A N
3 9 7 6
3 8 3 1
4 1 6 9
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 8 4 2
3 9 1 8
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
4 0 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 1 0 0
3 0 7
-
3 6
8 8
- 4 1
2 5
- 7 3
2 0
4 6
0 0
2 4
- 4 8
2 5
0 0
S A S K
3 8 3 0
4 1 5 2
5 1 7 1
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 9 2 2
3 7 4 5
4 3 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 4 0 0
4 1 0 0
4 2 0 0
3 5 4
8 4
2 4 5
- 2 0 7
2 4
- 1 9 5
- 4 5
1 4 8
2 3
- 6 8
7 3
- 6 8
2 4
A L T A
1 7 8 5 1
1 5 1 9 3
1 7 4 9 3
1 8 2 0 0
1 8 9 0 0
1 9 2 8 0
1 8 1 3 4
1 7 5 0 0
1 7 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
1 8 8 0 0
1
8 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 0
2 4 4
- 1
4 9
1 5 1
4 0
3 8
9 1
- 5 9
- 3 5
1 7
6 7
- 1 1
0 0
1 1
B C
1 1 4 6 2
8 8 6 7
8 3 3 3
9 0 0 0
9 9 0 0
8 2 7 9
7 6 3 7
9 7 0 0
1 0 4 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
9 9 0 0
9 8 0 0
4 5 2
- 2
2 6
- 6 0
8 0
1 0 0
2 3
- 7 8
2 7 0
7 2
- 4 8
- 1 0
1 0
- 1 0
C A N
9 2 5 5 4
8 2 3 9 2
8 3 6 5 7
7 7 5 0 0
8 0 5 0 0
7 7 0 4 9
7 6 0 0 5
7 7 9 0 0
7 9 2 0 0
8 0 6 0 0
8 1 3 0 0
8
0 8 0 0
7 9 4 0 0
2 2 3
- 1
1 0
1 5
- 7 4
3 9
- 5 2
- 1 4
2 4
1 8
1 7
0 9
- 0 6
- 1 8
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m
o f t h e
p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
C a n a d i a n t o t a l e x c l u d e s t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i s 7 7
5 0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 8 0 5
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t
y i s r e f l e c t e d
b y t h e c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
7 5 1
0 0 - 7
9 9
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d 7 1 3
0 0 - 8
9 7
0 0 u n i t s f o r 2 0 1 4
Q u a r t e r l y l e v e l s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d a t a n n u a l
r a t e s
T a b l e 2 S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 ( F )
2 0 1 3 Q 1
2 0 1 3 Q 2
2 0 1 3 Q 3 ( F ) 2 0 1 3 Q 4 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 1 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 2 ( F )
2 0 1
4 Q 3 ( F )
2 0 1 4 Q 4 ( F )
N F L D
2 3 5 3 4 1
2 5 1
5 8 1
2 6 8 7 7 6
2 8 2 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 5 7 3 7
2 8 3 3 2 5
2 7 9 6 7 5
2 7 8 0 0 0
2 8 0 0 0 0
2 9 0 0 0 0
2 8 5 0 0 0
2 8 4 7 5 0
1 4 0
6 9
6 8
4 9
1 1
1 2
- 0 8
- 1 3
- 0 6
0 7
3 6
- 1 7
- 0 1
P E I
1 4 7 1 9 6
1 4 9
6 1 8
1 5 2 2 5 0
1 5 5 0 0 0
1 5 6 5 0 0
1 4 5 4 9 3
1 5 6 7 8 1
1 6 8 4 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 0 0 0 0
1 5 7 6 5 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
0 8
1 6
1 8
1 8
1 0
- 6 4
7 8
7 4
- 1 0 9
0 0
5 1
1 5
- 1 3
N S
2 0 6 1 8 6
2 1 2
5 1 2
2 2 0 4 1 3
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 6 0 0 0
2 2 0 1 8 4
2 1 8 6 2 7
2 2 3 9 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 2 0 0 0
2 2 5 0 0 0
2 2 9 7 5 0
2 2 7 0 0 0
4 8
3 1
3 7
0 7
1 8
0 2
- 0 7
2 4
0 5
- 1 3
1 4
2 1
- 1 2
N B
1 5 7 2 4 0
1 6 0
5 4 5
1 6 1 1 1 6
1 6 1 0 0 0
1 6 0 5 0 0
1 5 9 7 0 7
1 6 2 2 5 0
1 6 1 7 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5 8 0 0 0
1 6 1 8 7 5
1 6 2 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0 0
1 5
2 1
0 4
- 0 1
- 0 3
- 1 3
1 6
- 0 3
- 1 1
- 1 3
2 5
0 1
- 1 2
Q U E
2 4 1 4 5 5
2 6 1
4 5 2
2 6 6 4 7 3
2 6 9 1 0 0
2 7 2 0 0 0
2 7 5 8 4 3
2 6 8 6 2 2
2 6 5 7 0 0
2 6 6 8 0 0
2 6 8 7 0 0
2 7 1 4 0 0
2 7 3 3 0 0
2 7 4 6 0 0
7 1
8 3
1 9
1 0
1 1
0 6
- 2 6
- 1 1
0 4
0 7
1 0
0 7
0 5
O N T
3 4 1 4 2 5
3 6 5
0 1 8
3 8 4 4 5 5
3 9 7 4 0 0
4 0 4 4 0 0
3 9 0 7 0 6
3 9 8 6 8 0
3 9 9 5 0 0
4 0 0 5 0 0
4 0 2 3 9 0
4 0 4 0 0 0
4 0 5 5 0 0
4 0 6 0 0 0
7 5
6 9
5 3
3 4
1 8
2 2
2 0
0 2
0 3
0 5
0 4
0 4
0 1
M A N
2 2 2 1 3 2
2 3 4
6 0 4
2 4 6 3 1 8
2 5 6 6 0 0
2 6 3 0 0 0
2 5 5 5 3 6
2 5 4 0 9 3
2 5 6 5 0 0
2 5 8 4 0 0
2 6 0 7 0 0
2 6 2 5 0 0
2 6 3 9 0 0
2 6 4 9 0 0
1 0 3
5 6
5 0
4 2
2 5
- 0 9
- 0 6
0 9
0 7
0 9
0 7
0 5
0 4
S A S K
2 4 2 2 5 8
2 5 9
4 6 1
2 7 4 2 6 8
2 8 8 0 0 0
2 9 4 1 0 0
2 8 4 4 3 7
2 8 7 5 8 2
2 8 7 0 0 0
2 8 9 0 0 0
2 9 2 0 0 0
2 9 3 0 0 0
2 9 4 0 0 0
2 9 5 0 0 0
4 0
7 1
5 7
5 0
2 1
0 1
1 1
- 0 2
0 7
1 0
0 3
0 3
0 3
A L T A
3 5 2 3 0 1
3 5 3
3 9 4
3 6 3 2 0 8
3 7 6 3 0 0
3 8 5 3 0 0
3 7 6 1 1 7
3 7 5 6 4 8
3 7 6 0 0 0
3 7 8 0 0 0
3 8 1 0 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
3 8 7 0 0 0
3 8 9 0 0 0
3 1
0 3
2 8
3 6
2 4
1 4
- 0 1
0 1
0 5
0 8
0 8
0 8
0 5
B C
5 0 5 1 7 8
5 6 1
3 0 4
5 1 4 8 3 6
5 1 8 3 0 0
5 2 3 2 0 0
5 1 3 9 3 0
5 1 9 1 5 4
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 0 0 0 0
5 2 1 0 0 0
5 2 3 4 0 0
5 2 4 0 0 0
5 2 5 0 0 0
8 5
1 1 1
- 8 3
0 7
0 9
2 1
1 0
0 2
0 0
0 2
0 5
0 1
0 2
C A N
3 3 8 7 1 0
3 6 3
8 8 6
3 6 4 9 3 0
3 7 4 8 0 0
3 8 2 8 0 0
3 6 8 6 8 5
3 7 5 1 3 9
3 7 6 5 0 0
3 7 8 5 0 0
3 8 0 5 0 0
3 8 3 0 0 0
3 8 3 7 0 0
3 8 4 0 0 0
5 8
7 4
0 3
2 7
2 1
2 0
1 8
0 4
0 5
0 5
0 7
0 2
0 1
( F ) F o r e c a s t b y C M H C
Q u a r t e r l y a v e r a g e s a r e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d
N o t e C a n a d i a n t o t a l m a y n o t a d d t o t h e s u m o f
t h e p r o v i n c e s d u e t o r o u n d i n g
C a n a d i a n a v e r a g e d o e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e t e r r i t o r i e s T h e p o i n t e s t i m a t e f o r t h e f o r e c a s t o f n a t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l r e s a l e s i s $ 3 7 4 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 8 2 8
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
E c o n o m i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s r e f l e c t e d b y t h e
c u r r e n t r a n g e o f f o r e c a s t s w h i c h v a r i e s f r o m
$ 3
6 9 1
0 0 - $
3 8 0 5
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 3 a n d $ 3 7 1 7
0 0 - $
3 9 3 9
0 0 f o r 2 0 1 4
T a b l e 6
A v e r a g e R e s i d e n t i a l R e s a l e P r i c e
( $
a n d
p e r c e n t a g e
c h a n g e )
S O U R C E T h e C a n a d i a n R e a l E s t a t e A s s o c i a t i o n
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Grand Sudbury 2013(F) 339 204 13 2284 250000 26 925
2014(F) 440 248 15 2373 251500 27 930
Windsor 2012 717 536 20 5082 172047 73 778
2013(F) 600 450 13 5300 179500 58 790
2014(F) 725 545 20 5400 182500 42 805
White Rock and North Delta
na Data not available (F) Forecast by CMHC
Table 11a Local Market Indicators
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
MLSreg sales and prices for the Vancouver CMA refer only to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) board area which does not include Surrey Langley
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Sources CMHC Canadian Real Estate Association QFREB by the Centrisreg system FCIQ par le systegraveme Centrisreg Local Real Estate Boards Statistics Canada
Statistics Canada defines Ottawa-Gatineau as a single census metropolitan area (CMA) but are treated as two centres in this publication for the sake of more detailed analysis
Charlottetown is a census agglomeration (CA) not a CMA A CA has an urban core population of at least 10000 while a CMA has a core population of at least 100000
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility
Housing Market Outlook - Canada Edition - Date Released - Third Quarter 2013
CMHCmdashHome to Canadians
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canadas national housing agency for more than 65 years
Together with other housing stakeholders we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in theworld We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality environmentally sustainable and affordable
housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country
For more information visit our website at wwwcmhcca or follow us on Twitter YouTube and Flickr
You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274
Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for peoplewith disabilities If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats call 1-800-668-2642
The Market Analysis Centrersquos (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHCrsquos
website You can view print download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automaticallyto you the same day it is released Itrsquos quick and convenient Go to wwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you visit us today atwwwcmhccahousingmarketinformation
To subscribe to priced printed editions of MAC publications call 1-800-668-2642
copy2013 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation All rights reserved CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publicationrsquos
content solely for personal corporate or public policy research and educational purposes This permission consists of theright to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results conclusions and
forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication Reasonable and limitedrights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria and CMHCrsquos right to request that
such use be discontinued for any reason
Any use of the publicationrsquos content must include the source of the information including statistical data acknowledged as follows
Source CMHC (or ldquoAdapted from CMHCrdquo if appropriate) name of product year and date of publication issue
Other than as outlined above the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or if acquiredby an organization to users outside the organization Placing the publication in whole or part on a website accessible to the
public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted To use thecontent of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above
or to request permission to reproduce large portions of or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications please contact theCanadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chiccmhcca 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642
For permission please provide CHIC with the following informationPublicationrsquos name year and date of issue
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into anyother language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The information analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable
but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed The information analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations forwhich Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility