Housing delivery test generic slides

The Housing Delivery Test

Workshop slides

November 2017 www.local.gov.uk/pas

A note on these slides

• These slides were used as part of a series of

workshops we did in November and

December 2017

• They explored the housing delivery test as we

understood it then

• They will be out of date very soon!

Today

1. Introductions

2. Context

3. The Housing Delivery Test

4. Root Cause Analysis

5. Action Plans

6. Reflections

7. Volunteers ?

1. Introductions

2. Context

• Housing Delivery Test introduced in the

Housing White Paper

• “… where the number of homes being built is

below expectations, the new housing delivery

test will ensure that action is taken.”

2. Context (HWP contd)

2.47 Having given local authorities stronger tools to ensure

developers build homes quickly, the Government will introduce a

new housing delivery test to ensure that local authorities

and wider interests are held accountable for their role in

ensuring new homes are delivered in their area. This test will

highlight whether the number of homes being built is below

target, provide a mechanism for establishing the reasons why,

and where necessary trigger policy responses that will ensure

that further land comes forward. The first assessment period will

be for financial years April 2014 – March 2015 to April 2016 –

March 2017.


2.48 To transition to a housing delivery test we propose to use

an area’s local plan (or, where relevant, the figure in the London

Plan or a statutory Spatial Development Strategy) where it is up-

to-date (less than 5 years old) to establish the appropriate

baseline for assessing delivery. If there is no up-to-date plan we

propose using published household projections for the years

leading up to, and including, April 2017 - March 2018 and from

the financial year April 2018 - March 2019, subject to

consultation, the new standard methodology for assessing

housing need.


2.49 In line with responses to our previous

consultation, housing delivery will be measured using

the National Statistic for net additional dwellings over a

rolling three year average. Where under-delivery is

identified, the Government proposes a tiered approach

to addressing the situation that would be set out in

national policy and guidance, starting with an analysis

of the causes so that appropriate action can be taken:


• A tiered approach:

Consequence Nov-17 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-20

action plan 95% 95% 95% 95%

20% buffer 85% 85% 85% 85%

Presumption n/a 25% 45% 65%

2. Context (Budget)

• [The govt will consult on] “strengthening

the Housing Delivery Test with tougher

consequences where planned homes are not

being built, by setting the threshold at which

the presumption in favour of development

applies at 75% of housing delivery by 2020”


action plan 95% 95% 95% 95%

20% buffer 85% 85% 85% 85%



Delivery

------------

Target

numerator

denominator

3. The Housing Delivery Test?

Delivery

------------

Target

3. The Housing Delivery Test -

numerator• Numerator = LT122

• Net additions measure the absolute increase

in stock between one year and the next,

including other losses and gains (such as

conversions, changes of use and demolitions)

• Census (?).


Numerator• Bouncy ! [3 year

rolling average

notwithstanding]

• Do you recognise it

from HFR ? Is it

right ?

• Can you predict

next year(s)

already ?

council

year2

011

year2

012

year2

013

year2

014

year2

015

year2

016

deliv

ery

Croydon 707 891 1,295 1,523 2,044 2,835 2,134

Fareham 277 240 154 287 371 349 336

Hounslow 580 232 686 397 480 557 478

Islington 1,224 919 1,243 498 1,027 674 733

Kingston upon Thames224 203 261 526 239 273 346

Merton 510 413 440 425 508 434 456

Newham 909 670 1,969 2,050 1,441 2,377 1,956

St Albans 380 343 375 313 396 340 350

Tower Hamlets2,875 961 660 916 2,394 4,827 2,712

Waltham Forest504 468 389 671 973 1,033 892


denominator

• Denominator = new OAN ?

• Or a plan target ?

• Or a stretch target above OAN?

• Remember this number can

bounce around

– Especially when you plan turns 5


denominator

• Note published numbers reflect transitionary

arrangements (see Croydon as an example)

Co

un

cil

aff

ord

ab

ilit

y

ad

justm

en

t

ON

S

ind

exed

ON

S

cap

ped

ON

S

pla

n d

ate

pla

n a

ge

pla

n t

arg

et

cap

ped

pla

n t

arg

et

cu

rren

t

pro

po

sed

Croydon 10.7 0.4 2502 3543 3503 22/04/2013 less 5 years 1010 1414 2440 1414

Fareham 9.2 0.3 401 531 531 01/08/2011 more 5 years 147 206 420 531

Hounslow 10.7 0.4 1936 2751 2711 15/09/2015 less 5 years 822 1151 1556 1151

Islington 15.0 0.7 1845 3114 2583 17/02/2011 more 5 years 1264 1770 1150 2583

Kingston Upon Thames 14.8 0.7 1091 1828 1527 17/04/2012 more 5 years 375 525 717 1527

Merton 16.2 0.8 1132 1997 1585 13/07/2011 more 5 years 320 448 279 1585

Newham 11.1 0.4 2743 3964 3840 26/01/2012 more 5 years 2500 3500 2355 3840

St Albans 16.8 0.8 652 1172 913 - no plan No adopted plan number0 639 913

Tower Hamlets 9.9 0.4 3565 4873 4873 15/09/2010 more 5 years 2885 4039 2428 4873

Waltham Forest 14.7 0.7 1726 2874 2416 01/03/2012 more 5 years 760 1064 2017 2416


results

• We know what number goes on the top

– Once we’ve sorted out C2

– And thought about census

• The number on the bottom ?

– LHN or plan target

– You need to know both outcomes …


results

Row Labels pass

acti

on

pla

n

bu

ffer +

AP

presu

mp

tio

n

#N

/A

Gran

d T

ota

l

pass r

ate

NE England 10 2 12 83%

York & Hum 15 6 21 71%

W. Midlands 21 3 6 30 70%

SW England 21 3 8 1 33 64%

E. Midlands 23 6 8 37 62%

NW England 24 14 1 39 62%

SE England 21 6 39 1 67 31%

E. England 14 4 29 47 30%

London 4 1 25 3 33 12%

Grand Total 153 23 137 4 5 322 48%

Co

un

cil

cap

ped

ON

S

cap

ped

pla

n t

arg

et

cu

rren

t

pro

po

sed

deli

very

as %

pro

po

sed

pro

po

sed

as %

ON

S

ind

ex O

NS

Croydon 3503 1414 2440 1414 2,134 151% pass 61% buffer + AP

Fareham 531 206 420 531 336 63% buffer + AP

Hounslow 2711 1151 1556 1151 478 42% buffer + AP 18% presumption

Islington 2583 1770 1150 2583 733 28% buffer + AP

Kingston Upon Thames 1527 525 717 1527 346 23% presumption

Merton 1585 448 279 1585 456 29% buffer + AP

Newham 3840 3500 2355 3840 1,956 51% buffer + AP

St Albans 913 0 639 913 350 38% buffer + AP

Tower Hamlets 4873 4039 2428 4873 2,712 56% buffer + AP

Waltham Forest 2416 1064 2017 2416 892 37% buffer + AP


results


action plan 95% 95% 95% 95%

20% buffer 85% 85% 85% 85%



• Thoughts ?

• Useful to think of it as two components rather

than one result ?

• How easy is to know what a “do nothing”

trajectory looks like ?

• What support might councils need ?

4. Root cause analysis

a systematic process for identifying “root causes”

of problems or events and an approach for responding to them

=

Root Cause AnalysisWhat is it

Root Cause Analysis

Root Cause AnalysisPlanning & delivery - issues & Influences

Small

Medium LargeGreenfield

Brownfield

Where Type

Who

Status

Who ElseWhen

sooner later

Diagnosis

Monitoring - identifying & spotting symptoms

Listening – to those involved in the problem

Evidencing – has/can a problem be evidenced

Understanding – recognising action is needed

Action

Scoping response – prioritised or general

Adjusting – changing own behaviour

Influencing – changing others behaviour

Intervening – taking more control

Root Cause AnalysisWhat might be involved

Who has got a [good?] site by site process?

How did it come together - what evidence / expertise is required?

Can we summarise by issue / typology?

How to draw conclusions from this micro approach. Is there a macro approach too?

What are the outputs from this process?

Root Cause AnalysisQuestions

What might a package of support look like ?

Review current approaches

5. Action Plans

Action PlansWhat could they cover

Action Plan

Planning

Funding

LobbyingBrokering

Land

What could they achieve?

What will be their role & status?

How far should they go - thorough or light touch?

Site or typology based?

Who needs to be involved?

What is the action planning process?

Who does it involve?

Who prepares it – role of combined authorities?

What is a timetable / milestone / consultation process?

What are the existing tools? (strengths, weaknesses)

What new tools might help? (cost / benefit)

What will the output look like?

Action PlansPreparing Action Plans

What might a package of support look like ?

Review current approaches

6. Reflections

• For councils

• For partners / developers / communities ?

7. Volunteers ?

• We need a few “deeper dive” councils

• 3 days of help (or so)

• Rough draft / outlines

– Action plan

– Root cause analysis

– Datasets / types / standards

• If you are interested, stay back and have a

chat

We are at local.gov.uk/pas

Questions?

Email [email protected]

Web www.local.gov.uk/pas

Phone 020 7664 3000

Twitter @Pas_Team

Housing delivery test generic slides

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